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The Verdict2026 · NFC North · through Week 9

Vikings logoMinnesota VikingsThe Verdict

Vikings are 6-2; the play says 4.7 wins. That record is running 1.3 wins ahead of how they have played, the kind of gap that usually closes. They are 4-1 in one-score games. On fourth down, Kevin O'Connell kicked away 8 of 13 situations our model called a go.

This week's issueLeague Luck IndexHow we judge
Luck wins · 4th of 32+1.36-2 real · 4.7 deserved · 5.1 Pythagorean
Luck points · 10th of 32+5.5fumble bounces 0.0 · opponents' kicks +5.5
Chicken Index · 10th of 3262%Kevin O'Connell · 5.6 expected points lost on 54 graded calls
Flags net · 5th of 32+57.9 WP43 flags for 334 yards against · 64 drawn

Every game, judged

latest first

Bottom lineNone of these 8 games went against the play; 3 were coin flips.

How to read this chart
Each card is one game.
Under each team: its success rate (share of snaps that kept the offense on schedule) and EPA per play (expected points added: how much each snap improved its scoring chances; 0 is average).
The split bar is the deserved win probability:
how often each team would win if the game were replayed from the same snaps. Away team on the left, home team on the right, 50-50 at the tick in the middle. The longer side played better.
The stamp is the ruling.
Earned: the winner also played better. Coin flip: the winner deserved it less than 60% of the time. Robbed: the loser deserved to win at least 70% of the time (when this team won one of those, it reads Lucky).
Luck pts
(full cards): real margin minus deserved margin; plus means the scoreboard was kinder than the play.
Week 9EarnedGame file →
Bills logoBills40% success · −0.04 EPA/play
236
Vikings logoVikings27% success · −0.68 EPA/play

Bills earned it: the snaps said Bills by 20.0, a deserved win probability of more than 99%.

Deserved marginBUF by 20.0
Real marginBUF by 17
Luck pts BUF+0.8
Luck pts MIN−3.3

The swingQ1 5:30 · MIN · −14 pts of win probability. 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short right to 18-J.Jefferson. Buffalo challenged the forward pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 11-C.Wentz FUMBLES (Aborted) at MIN 43, RECOVERED by BUF-15-G.Rousseau at MIN 44.

The luck sheet

All 32 →
One-score games4-1Decided by 8 points or fewer. Over a season teams win about half of these.
Fumble bounces0.0 ptsKept 2 of 5 own fumbles; won 3 of 5 by opponents. League offenses keep 53%.
Opponents' kicks+5.5 ptsOpponents made 14 of 18 field goals against an expected 15.3, and 8 of 10 extra points.
Own kicking+7.3 ptsMade 20 of 22 field goals against 17.6 expected by distance. Skill, not luck: not in the luck total.
Net EPA per play+0.00815th of 32 · offense minus defense, passes and runs
Our picks on them4-3Our pregame model in Vikings games. All receipts

Coach on trial

Kevin O'Connell · 54 graded fourth downs · went for it 8×

Bottom lineThe calls against the model in this list cost 5.1 expected points in total.

How to read this chart
Each row is one fourth down:
distance, spot, score, what the coach chose and what our model would have done (a clear call, a lean or a toss-up).
The number on the right
is what the choice cost in expected points (EP, what a possession is worth on average from that spot): −1.00 means about a point thrown away. ✓ = the coach made the model's call.
The result
is what happened next; the grade judges the decision, not the outcome.
  1. 1MIN · 4th & 1Kevin O'Connell chose Punt at own 21, Wk 2 Q4 13:04, up 3. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.15 EP
  2. 2MIN · 4th & 2Kevin O'Connell chose Punt at own 40, Wk 5 Q2 6:15, down 4. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−0.83 EP
  3. 3MIN · 4th & 5Kevin O'Connell chose Go for it at opp 25, Wk 8 Q4 14:34, down 5. Model: Field goal (clear call). Result: stopped.−0.79 EP
  4. 4MIN · 4th & 1Kevin O'Connell chose Field goal at opp 25, Wk 9 Q2 4:06, down 3. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: good.−0.63 EP
  5. 5MIN · 4th & 5Kevin O'Connell chose Punt at opp 44, Wk 7 Q1 7:15, down 7. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.58 EP
  6. 6MIN · 4th & 3Kevin O'Connell chose Punt at own 42, Wk 2 Q1 0:11, tied. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.52 EP
  7. 7MIN · 4th & 5Kevin O'Connell chose Punt at midfield, Wk 9 Q1 1:08, down 3. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.33 EP
  8. 8MIN · 4th & 3Kevin O'Connell chose Punt at own 31, Wk 2 Q3 6:40, up 3. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.29 EP

Brave and right

  1. 1MIN · 4th & 1Kevin O'Connell chose Go for it at own 46, Wk 7 Q1 5:00, down 7. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
  2. 2MIN · 4th & 1Kevin O'Connell chose Go for it at opp 38, Wk 7 Q1 12:52, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: stopped.✓ EP
  3. 3MIN · 4th & 1Kevin O'Connell chose Go for it at opp 35, Wk 3 Q4 6:08, up 1. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
  4. 4MIN · 4th & 1Kevin O'Connell chose Go for it at opp 33, Wk 2 Q2 10:40, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
How to read this chart
Every fourth down this season.
Go EP, Punt EP and FG EP are the expected points of each option from that spot: the highest is the model's call.
Cost:
how many expected points the coach's choice gave up against the best one; ✓ = he made the best call. Late-game and lopsided situations are listed but not graded.
SituationWkChoiceModelGo EPPunt EPFG EPCostResult
4th & 4 · own 26 · Q1 11:429PuntPunt (toss-up)-1.30-1.27–✓punted
4th & 5 · 50 · Q1 1:089PuntGo for it0.01-0.32–−0.33punted
4th & 10 · own 45 · Q2 13:329PuntPunt-0.87-0.46–✓punted
4th & 21 · opp 48 · Q2 8:539PuntPunt-0.89-0.28–✓punted
4th & 1 · opp 25 · Q2 4:069Field goalGo for it3.03–2.40−0.63good
4th & 6 · own 24 · Q4 15:009PuntPunt-1.80-1.38–✓punted
4th & 4 · own 42 · Q4 5:419Go for itnot graded-0.29-0.56–stopped
4th & 9 · opp 21 · Q4 2:009Go for itnot graded1.39–2.61stopped
4th & 7 · opp 38 · Q1 13:128Field goalField goal0.47-0.131.03✓missed
4th & 4 · own 26 · Q1 7:298PuntPunt (toss-up)-1.30-1.27–✓punted
4th & 8 · own 48 · Q2 11:288PuntPunt (toss-up)-0.51-0.37–✓punted
4th & 17 · own 14 · Q2 5:118PuntPunt-3.30-2.00–✓punted
4th & 22 · own 24 · Q3 7:408PuntPunt-2.74-1.38–✓punted
4th & 5 · opp 25 · Q4 14:348Go for itField goal1.61–2.40−0.79stopped
4th & 5 · own 33 · Q4 3:018Puntnot graded-1.06-0.92–punted
4th & 1 · opp 38 · Q1 12:527Go for itGo for it2.15-0.131.03✓stopped
4th & 5 · opp 44 · Q1 7:157PuntGo for it0.38-0.200.02−0.58punted
4th & 1 · own 46 · Q1 5:007Go for itGo for it1.15-0.43–✓converted
4th & 8 · opp 10 · Q2 14:557Field goalField goal2.41–2.89✓good
4th & 9 · opp 29 · Q2 6:427Field goalField goal0.86–2.11✓good
4th & 5 · own 44 · Q3 9:457PuntGo for it (toss-up)-0.37-0.49–−0.13punted
4th & 12 · opp 41 · Q4 8:387Field goalField goal-0.12-0.160.55✓blocked
4th & 16 · opp 34 · Q4 1:447Field goalnot graded0.14-0.111.58good
4th & 6 · opp 21 · Q1 9:085Field goalField goal1.72–2.61✓good
4th & 2 · own 40 · Q2 6:155PuntGo for it0.20-0.63–−0.83punted
4th & 14 · own 49 · Q2 3:055PuntPunt-0.85-0.35–✓punted
4th & 7 · opp 36 · Q2 0:035Field goalnot graded0.60-0.121.32good
4th & 6 · opp 37 · Q4 7:065Field goalField goal0.67-0.121.18✓good
4th & 2 · own 46 · Q4 4:015Puntnot graded0.57-0.43–punted
4th & 6 · opp 48 · Q1 13:004PuntGo for it-0.03-0.28–−0.25punted
4th & 14 · opp 29 · Q1 7:574Field goalField goal0.55–2.11✓good
4th & 19 · own 22 · Q2 14:154PuntPunt-2.80-1.49–✓punted
4th & 8 · opp 32 · Q2 7:134Field goalField goal0.75-0.111.82✓good
4th & 8 · opp 48 · Q2 5:014PuntGo for it (toss-up)-0.26-0.28–−0.02punted
4th & 11 · opp 23 · Q3 6:384Field goalField goal1.11–2.52✓good
4th & 12 · own 24 · Q3 2:004PuntPunt-2.36-1.38–✓punted
4th & 1 · opp 30 · Q4 10:084Go for itGo for it2.69-0.112.02✓converted
4th & 5 · opp 11 · Q4 6:434Field goalGo for it (toss-up)2.94–2.87−0.07good
4th & 9 · opp 36 · Q1 10:243Field goalField goal0.40-0.121.32✓good
4th & 8 · own 43 · Q1 2:343PuntPunt-0.82-0.52–✓punted
4th & 12 · own 17 · Q2 13:563PuntPunt-2.84-1.80–✓punted
4th & 13 · own 10 · Q2 10:153PuntPunt-3.41-2.29–✓punted
4th & 4 · own 26 · Q2 1:033Puntnot graded-1.30-1.27–punted
4th & 7 · own 37 · Q3 10:303PuntPunt-1.09-0.75–✓punted
4th & 9 · own 29 · Q3 6:093PuntPunt-1.81-1.11–✓punted
4th & 7 · own 42 · Q3 1:273PuntPunt (toss-up)-0.78-0.56–✓punted
4th & 5 · own 30 · Q4 13:303PuntPunt (toss-up)-1.25-1.06–✓punted
4th & 1 · opp 35 · Q4 6:083Go for itGo for it2.35-0.111.46✓converted
4th & 16 · opp 38 · Q4 3:153Field goalnot graded-0.11-0.131.03good
4th & 6 · opp 25 · Q4 0:373Field goalnot graded1.45–2.40good
4th & 6 · opp 17 · Q1 11:082Field goalField goal2.00–2.75✓good
4th & 24 · own 12 · Q1 3:032PuntPunt-3.65-2.14–✓punted
4th & 3 · own 42 · Q1 0:112PuntGo for it-0.04-0.56–−0.52punted
4th & 1 · opp 33 · Q2 10:402Go for itGo for it2.48-0.111.70✓converted
4th & 10 · opp 31 · Q2 8:232Field goalField goal0.65-0.111.92✓good
4th & 10 · own 28 · Q2 0:342Puntnot graded-1.95-1.16–punted
4th & 3 · own 31 · Q3 6:402PuntGo for it-0.72-1.01–−0.29punted
4th & 13 · own 35 · Q3 1:492PuntPunt-1.69-0.83–✓punted
4th & 1 · own 21 · Q4 13:042PuntGo for it-0.40-1.55–−1.15punted
4th & 7 · opp 21 · Q4 1:122Field goalnot graded1.59–2.61good
4th & 10 · own 45 · Q1 8:131PuntPunt-0.87-0.46–✓punted
4th & 5 · opp 20 · Q1 1:421Field goalField goal1.95–2.65✓good
4th & 8 · opp 48 · Q2 10:401PuntGo for it (toss-up)-0.26-0.28–−0.02punted
4th & 9 · own 5 · Q2 6:081PuntPunt-3.49-2.68–✓punted
4th & 6 · own 44 · Q3 11:071PuntPunt (toss-up)-0.52-0.49–✓punted

Flags against

Ledger →

Bottom lineThe biggest here: Unnecessary Roughness on MIN in Week 3, worth +15 points of win probability to TB.

How to read this chart
Each row is one flag:
the team in red was penalized, the team in green was helped.
The number on the right
is how much that flag moved the helped team's chance of winning, in points (100 = a whole game). When the play still counted, the play is included, so treat it as an upper bound.
Touchdown erased
marks a score wiped off by the flag, with the expected points it cost.
  1. 1Unnecessary RoughnessMIN → helped TB · Wk 3 Q4 10:49 · (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 2-E.Egbuka to TB 46 for 10 yards (44-J.Metellus; 7-B.Murphy). PENALTY on…+15.3 WP
  2. 2Roughing the PasserMIN → helped DET · Wk 8 Q1 12:07 · (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep left to 14-A.St. Brown. PENALTY on MIN-50-L.Rodriguez, Roughing the Passer,…+7.9 WP
  3. 3Roughing the PasserMIN → helped CHI · Wk 2 Q2 6:18 · 18-C.Williams pass short right to 14-K.Raymond to CHI 45 for 5 yards (7-B.Murphy). PENALTY on MIN-15-D.Turner, Roughing the…+7.3 WP
  4. 4Neutral Zone InfractionMIN → helped DET · Wk 8 Q2 0:28 · (Run formation) PENALTY on MIN-90-T.Ingram-Dawkins, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at DET 47 - No Play.+7.0 WP
  5. 5Offensive HoldingMIN → helped TB · Wk 3 Q1 11:33 · (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked ob at TB 37 for -1 yards (34-A.Anzalone). PENALTY on MIN-74-D.Jackson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards,…+6.4 WP
FoulFlagsYardsWP given
Offensive Holding88026.0
False Start125919.1
Unnecessary Roughness23018.4
Roughing the Passer23015.2
Illegal Formation42010.5
Neutral Zone Infraction2109.0
Defensive Offside3154.7
Delay of Game3154.1

Flags drawn

  1. 1Defensive Pass InterferenceBUF → helped MIN · Wk 9 Q3 13:26 · (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete deep right to 33-A.Jones (8-T.Bernard). PENALTY on BUF-8-T.Bernard, Defensive Pass…+9.4 WP
  2. 2Illegal ContactGB → helped MIN · Wk 1 Q4 11:03 · (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz sacked at MIN 24 for -10 yards (sack split by 56-E.Cooper and 95-D.Wyatt). PENALTY on GB-7-J.Bullard,…+8.2 WP
  3. 3Offensive HoldingTB → helped MIN · Wk 3 Q4 12:02 · (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield scrambles up the middle to MIN 30 for 14 yards (51-B.Cashman). PENALTY on TB-87-P.Durham, Offensive…+7.2 WP
  4. 4Defensive HoldingGB → helped MIN · Wk 1 Q4 6:49 · (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle intended for 3-J.Addison INTERCEPTED by 33-E.Williams [98-J.Hargrave] at GB -4.…+6.9 WP
  5. 5Intentional GroundingCHI → helped MIN · Wk 2 Q2 2:13 · (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short right [55-E.Wilson]. PENALTY on CHI-18-C.Williams, Intentional Grounding, 13…+6.5 WP

Garbage Time Tax

6.0% of the offense's yards came with the game decided · 32nd most of 32

Bottom lineT.J. Hockenson: 32 of 328 yards (10%) came with the game decided.

How to read this chart
One bar per player,
as long as his season yards (passing, rushing or receiving).
Blue = yards with the game still alive.
Striped amber = garbage time: yards gained when the offense's chance of winning was already under 10% or over 90%, so the game was basically decided.
The percentage
is the garbage-time share of his yards (amber from 30% up).
Kyler MurrayMIN · passing · 1,022 yds3%
Aaron Jones Sr.MIN · rushing · 474 yds6%
Justin JeffersonMIN · receiving · 393 yds7%
T.J. HockensonMIN · receiving · 328 yds10%
Jordan AddisonMIN · receiving · 277 yds6%

Our picks on the Vikings

Receipts →
  1. 1Week 9We gave the Vikings 51% at home against bills. 23-6 final, a loss.Wrong
  2. 2Week 8We gave the Vikings 56% at lions. 15-19 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Wrong
  3. 3Week 7We gave the Vikings 77% at home against colts. 10-16 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
  4. 4Week 5We gave the Vikings 70% at saints. 23-13 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
  5. 5Week 4We gave the Vikings 84% at home against dolphins. 10-15 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
  6. 6Week 3We gave the Vikings 65% at buccaneers. 23-16 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
  7. 7Week 2We gave the Vikings 41% at bears. 9-3 final, a win. (rebuilt)Wrong
Cite thisPigskin Nightly, "Minnesota Vikings verdict, 2026", https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/vikings/verdict (2026)CC BY 4.0Data licenseCSVJSONEmbedHow it works

Every number on this page is computed from the 2026 nflverse play-by-play by our own models. Nothing is hand-picked.