Colts 10, Vikings 16: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 7 · Sun, Oct 25 · U.S. Bank StadiumFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
IND	7	3	0	0	10
MIN	0	6	0	10	16

Home · 6-2MinnesotaVikings16

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 5:20 PM ET

The Minnesota Vikings beat the Indianapolis Colts 16-10 on Sun, Oct 25 at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, MN (Week 7, 2026 season). Records after the game: Colts 2-7, Vikings 6-2. K.Allen (IND) led all players with +4.9 EPA on 3 targets.

Who won Colts vs Vikings?

The Minnesota Vikings won 16-10. By quarter: IND 7-3-0-0, MIN 0-6-0-10.

Who was the best player in Colts vs Vikings?

By expected points added: K.Allen (IND, +4.9 EPA on 3 targets), D.Jones (IND, +2.9 EPA on 3 carries) and K.Murray (MIN, +2.5 EPA on 29 dropbacks).

What was the turning point of Colts vs Vikings?

The biggest swing in win probability (19 points toward the Vikings) came in Q4 at 1:15: (No Huddle, Shotgun) D.Jones pass short right intended for W.Mallory INTERCEPTED by H.Smith at MIN 44. H.Smith to IND 41 for 15 yards (K.Allen).

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Colts 10, Vikings 16: Week 7 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-10-25-ind-at-min (updated 2026-11-10).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 7 issue →

Week 7Coin flipGame file →

Colts44% success · −0.11 EPA/play

1016

Vikings37% success · −0.12 EPA/play

IND 43% deserveddeserved 57% MIN

Vikings earned it: the snaps said Vikings by 1.0, a deserved win probability of 57%.

Deserved marginMIN by 1.0

Real marginMIN by 6

Luck pts IND+0.1

Luck pts MIN+3.8

The swingQ4 15:00 · MIN · +19 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray scrambles right tackle pushed ob at IND 5 for 35 yards (0-C.Bynum). IND-29-C.Taylor-Britt was injured during the play.

Flags that moved this game

1Offensive HoldingIND → helped MIN · Wk 7 Q3 9:45 · 19-B.Thorson punts 42 yards to IND 14, Center-42-A.DePaola. 2-J.Downs to IND 14 for no gain (31-D.Dallas). PENALTY on…+2.8 WP
2Illegal FormationMIN → helped IND · Wk 7 Q2 14:52 · 16-W.Reichard kicks 52 yards from MIN 35 to IND 13. 20-S.McGowan to IND 33 for 20 yards (23-J.Pierre). PENALTY on…+2.5 WP

Fourth downs our model disagreed with

1MIN · 4th & 5Kevin O'Connell chose Punt at opp 44, Wk 7 Q1 7:15, down 7. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.58 EP
2IND · 4th & 2Shane Steichen chose Field goal at opp 37, Wk 7 Q3 2:19, up 4. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: missed.−0.46 EP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA133 plays, one strand1 lead change · 10 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewBrad Rogers10 accepted flags in this game · 12 a game this season (one of the quietest crews)Market vs SnapsLine: MIN by 6.5 · Snaps: MIN by 1.0Colts covered; the snaps agree

10@16

Week 7

If the Colts kicker had made it from 48

Colts after the play19%what really happened

Q4 4:27 3-S.Shrader 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

MIN ▲IND ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+19%Q4 1:15 · for MIN(No Huddle, Shotgun) D.Jones pass short right intended for W.Mallory INTERCEPTED by H.Smith at MIN 44. H.Smith to IND 41 for 15 yards (K.Allen).
+16%Q4 15:00 · for MIN(Shotgun) K.Murray scrambles right tackle pushed ob at IND 5 for 35 yards (C.Bynum). IND-C.Taylor-Britt was injured during the play.
+16%Q4 4:27 · for MINS.Shrader 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-L.Rhodes, Holder-R.Sanchez.
+11%Q4 5:10 · for MIN(Shotgun) S.McGowan right guard to MIN 30 for no gain (K.Van Noy; J.Metellus).
+10%Q1 9:13 · for INDJ.Taylor left tackle for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. S.Shrader extra point is GOOD, Center-L.Rhodes, Holder-R.Sanchez.

Every drive, on the field

MIN attacks →← IND attacks

Q1 15:00DOWNS4p · 8y · 2:14
Q1 12:46TD7p · 61y · 3:33
Q1 9:13PUNT4p · 21y · 2:04
Q1 7:09PUNT3p · 7y · 0:56
Q1 6:13FG15p · 53y · 6:21
Q2 14:52PUNT5p · 0y · 2:48
Q2 12:04FG12p · 67y · 5:27
Q2 6:37FG16p · 29y · 6:37
Q3 15:00PUNT5p · 3y · 3:39
Q3 11:21PUNT3p · 5y · 1:44
Q3 9:37MISS12p · 56y · 7:22
Q3 2:15TD6p · 54y · 2:39
Q4 14:36PUNT5p · 14y · 2:14
Q4 12:22MISS7p · 37y · 3:50
Q4 8:32MISS7p · 21y · 4:10
Q4 4:22FG7p · 28y · 2:43
Q4 1:39INT2p · 13y · 0:31
Q4 1:08END2p · -2y · 1:08

Colts9 drives2scoring drives (1 TD)22%drives ending in pointsOWN 30avg starting field position1three-and-outs1turnovers incl. downs

Vikings8 drives4scoring drives (1 TD)50%drives ending in pointsOWN 34avg starting field position1three-and-outs1turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
9:13TouchdownJ.Taylor left tackle for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. S.Shrader extra point is GOOD, Center-L.Rhodes, Holder-R.Sanchez.7–0
Q2
14:52Field goalW.Reichard 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-A.DePaola, Holder-B.Thorson.7–3
Q2
6:37Field goalW.Reichard 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-A.DePaola, Holder-B.Thorson.7–6
Q2
0:00Field goalS.Shrader 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-L.Rhodes, Holder-R.Sanchez.10–6
Q4
14:36TouchdownK.Murray pass short left to T.Hockenson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. W.Reichard extra point is GOOD, Center-A.DePaola, Holder-B.Thorson.10–13
Q4
1:39Field goalW.Reichard 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-A.DePaola, Holder-B.Thorson.10–16

Team stats

INDvsMIN

218Total yards275

64Passing yards139

154Rushing yards136

3.7Yards per play4.9

15First downs17

8-15 · 53%Third down3-11 · 27%

1-1Fourth down1-2

0-1Red zone TDs1-2

13/22Comp / att14/24

4.7Yards per carry4.7

1Turnovers0

4 (−44 yds)Sacks allowed3 (−11 yds)

6 for 46Penalties4 for 24

31:50Possession28:10

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play-0.112-0.081

Dropback EPA-0.278+0.087

Rush EPA+0.028-0.275

Success rate44%37%

Explosive plays37

Plays5954

Who moved the needle

K.AllenTargets: 3+4.9

D.JonesCarries: 3+2.9

K.MurrayDropbacks: 29+2.5

J.JenningsTargets: 3+2.1

T.HockensonTargets: 5+1.4

J.JeffersonTargets: 7+1.1

Cost their side the most

D.JonesDropbacks: 27-7.5

W.MalloryTargets: 3-6.3

A.JonesCarries: 8-6.3

Box score

Indianapolis Colts

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Daniel JonesQB	13/22	108	4.9	0	1	4-44	65.4	52.8

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Jonathan TaylorRB	18	95	5.3	1	38
Seth McGowanRB	11	46	4.2	0	14
Daniel JonesQB	4	13	3.3	0	6

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	LONG
Keenan AllenWR	3	3	31	10.3	13
Laquon TreadwellWR	2	2	19	9.5	12
Josh DownsWR	2	4	18	9.0	13
Jonathan TaylorRB	2	3	15	7.5	10
Drew OgletreeTE	2	2	12	6.0	9
Deion BurksWR	1	1	11	11.0	11
Seth McGowanRB	1	1	2	2.0	2
Mo Alie-CoxTE	0	2	0	0.0	0
Will MalloryTE	0	3	0	0.0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
A.J. HaulcyS	9	5	0	0	0	0
Akeem Davis-GaitherLB	7	3	0	1	0	0
Adetomiwa AdebaworeDT	5	4	2	2	1	2
DeForest BucknerDT	5	2	0	0	0	0
Jaylahn TuimoloauDE	5	2	0	0	0	0
Cam Taylor-BrittCB	4	2	1	1	1	0
Justin WalleyCB	3	3	0	0	0	0
Charvarius WardCB	3	1	0	0	1	0
Germaine Pratt	3	0	0	0	0	0
Cam BynumS	2	2	0	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Spencer ShraderPK	1/3	33.3	43	1/1	4

Minnesota Vikings

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Kyler MurrayQB	14/24	150	6.3	1	0	3-11	64.2	90.6

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
Jordan MasonRB	15	68	4.5	12
Kyler MurrayQB	5	39	7.8	35
Aaron Jones Sr.RB	8	26	3.3	17
Jordan AddisonWR	1	3	3.0	3

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Justin JeffersonWR	4	7	44	11.0	0	21
T.J. HockensonTE	4	5	35	8.8	1	22
Jauan JenningsWR	2	3	34	17.0	0	20
Jordan AddisonWR	2	3	20	10.0	0	11
Gavin BartholomewTE	1	1	17	17.0	0	17
Aaron Jones Sr.RB	1	1	0	0.0	0	0
Jordan MasonRB	0	2	0	0.0	0	0
Tai FeltonWR	0	1	0	0.0	0	0
Max BredesonFB	0	1	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Blake CashmanLB	12	8	2	2	4	3
Joshua MetellusS	7	3	0	0	0	0
James PierreCB	5	5	0	0	0	0
Jalen RedmondDT	5	3	0.5	1	0	1
Theo JacksonS	5	2	0	0	0	0
Eric WilsonLB	4	3	0.5	1	0	1
Harrison SmithS	4	2	0.5	0	1	1
Dallas TurnerLB	4	2	0.5	1	0	3
Levi Drake RodriguezDT	4	2	0	0	0	0
DeeJay DallasRB	3	3	0	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Will ReichardPK	3/4	75.0	52	1/1	10

Before kickoff · Regular season through week 6 · rank out of 32

Where it was expected to be decided

1Vikings pass defense vs Colts dropback offense
The Vikings' pass defense ranks 1st in EPA per dropback (-0.21 allowed, 179 dropbacks faced) and faces a Colts dropback offense ranked 28th (-0.14, 239 dropbacks).
28thIND offense27 spots apart1stMIN defense
2Vikings takeaway defense vs Colts ball security
The Vikings' takeaway defense ranks 2nd in turnovers per game (1.8 takeaways a game, 5 games) and faces a Colts ball security ranked 26th (1.8 giveaways a game, 6 games).
26thIND offense24 spots apart2ndMIN defenseSmall sample, read with care Why sample size matters
3Vikings pass rush vs Colts pass protection
The Vikings' pass rush ranks 1st in sack rate (9.5% of dropbacks, 179 dropbacks faced) and faces a Colts pass protection ranked 19th (6.3% sacked, 239 dropbacks).
19thIND offense18 spots apart1stMIN defense

When the Colts have the ballEdge MIN · +27 ranks

IND dropback offenseEPA per dropbackMIN pass defense

28th-0.14239 dropbacks

MIN +27

-0.21 allowed179 dropbacks faced1st

IND run gameEPA per rushMIN run defense

2nd+0.06158 rushes

-0.22 allowed101 rushes faced1st

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Vikings have the ballNo big edge

MIN dropback offenseEPA per dropbackIND pass defense

23rd-0.03170 dropbacks

+0.08 allowed208 dropbacks faced22nd

MIN run gameEPA per rushIND run defense

26th-0.19128 rushes

+0.05 allowed138 rushes faced32nd

Third downEdge MIN · +17 ranks

IND third-down offensethird-down conversion rateMIN third-down defense

18th39.0%82 third downs

MIN +17

23.8% allowed63 third downs faced1st

MIN third-down offensethird-down conversion rateIND third-down defense

14th40.8%76 third downs

IND +11

30.9% allowed68 third downs faced3rd

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneEdge IND · +12 ranks

IND red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateMIN red-zone defense

10th63%19 trips

MIN +9

25% allowed12 trips faced1st

MIN red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateIND red-zone defense

31st46%13 trips

IND +12

61% allowed18 trips faced19th

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsNo big edge

IND big-play offenseexplosive-play rateMIN defense against big plays

13th9.3%397 plays

8.2% allowed280 plays faced11th

MIN big-play offenseexplosive-play rateIND defense against big plays

22nd8.1%298 plays

9.0% allowed346 plays faced16th

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksEdge MIN · +18 ranks

IND pass protectionsack rateMIN pass rush

19th6.3% sacked239 dropbacks

MIN +18

9.5% of dropbacks179 dropbacks faced1st

MIN pass protectionsack rateIND pass rush

28th8.8% sacked170 dropbacks

4.8% of dropbacks208 dropbacks faced22nd

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversEdge MIN · +24 ranks

IND ball securityturnovers per gameMIN takeaway defense

26th1.8 giveaways a game6 games

MIN +24

1.8 takeaways a game5 games2nd

MIN ball securityturnovers per gameIND takeaway defense

10th0.8 giveaways a game5 games

MIN +20

0.5 takeaways a game6 games30th

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

Sample: IND 6 games, 397 offensive and 346 defensive plays · MIN 5 games, 298 offensive and 280 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

Tyler WarrenTE→ Mo Alie-Cox

Jalen FarmerLG→ Quenton Nelson

Luke TenutaRT→ Jalen Travis

CJ AllenMLB→ Jaylon Carlies

Bryce BoettcherSLB→ DeForest Buckner

Sauce GardnerLCB→ Cam Taylor-Britt

Carson WentzQB→ Kyler Murray

Max BredesonFB→ Aaron Jones Sr.

Caleb BanksNT→ Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins

Harrison SmithFS→ Theo Jackson

AwayColts1 next man up · 3 questionable · 6 changes