AFC West · 2026 season

DenverBroncos

7-2record1stin West#2AFC seed+12point diffW5streak

What changed · Last 4 games (weeks 6-9) vs 5 games before (weeks 1-5)

Biggest improvementDropback offenseEPA per dropback25th→7th

Over the last 4 games the dropback offense has posted +0.15 EPA per dropback (136 dropbacks), 7th among 32 teams over their own last 4. In the 5 games before: -0.08 EPA per dropback (174 dropbacks), 25th.

Season EPA ranks ↓Emerging problemPass defenseEPA per dropback allowed4th→17th

Over the last 4 games the pass defense has allowed +0.04 EPA per dropback (197 dropbacks), 17th among 32 teams over their own last 4. In the 5 games before: -0.04 EPA per dropback (186 dropbacks), 4th.

Season EPA ranks ↓Usage shiftJonah Coleman, RBoffensive snap share9%→48%

Jonah Coleman has played 48% of offensive snaps over the last 4 games, up from 9% in the 5 games before. On the field in 3 of 4 and 2 of 5; a game without a snap counts as zero.

Snap counts, week by week ↓

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 9:52 AM ET

The Denver Broncos are 7-2 in the 2026 season, 1st in the AFC West and the No. 2 seed in the AFC, with a point differential of +12. On offense they rank 16th in the league in EPA per play (-0.014); on defense they rank 14th (-0.008 allowed). The Pigskin Nightly model gives them a 90% chance to make the playoffs and 1.6% to win the Super Bowl. The Denver Broncos play next at home against the Las Vegas Raiders on Sun, Nov 22, 4:25 PM ET (Week 11), on CBS.

What is the Denver Broncos record?

7-2, 1st in the AFC West. Home 4-0, road 3-2, division 2-1, conference 3-1, current streak W5. Points: 198 scored, 186 allowed.

Who do the Denver Broncos play next?

The Denver Broncos play next at home against the Las Vegas Raiders on Sun, Nov 22, 4:25 PM ET (Week 11), on CBS.

What are the Denver Broncos' playoff chances?

90% to make the playoffs, 36% to win the AFC West, 8% to earn the No. 1 seed and the bye, 4.0% to win the AFC and 1.6% to win the Super Bowl, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season (projected record 11.5-5.5).

Who is the Denver Broncos starting quarterback?

Bo Nix is first on the Broncos depth chart at quarterback, with Jarrett Stidham behind.

Who is injured for the Denver Broncos?

Out, doubtful or on injured reserve: Brandon Jones (S, out, hamstring), Kris Abrams-Draine (CB, out, ankle), Talanoa Hufanga (S, out, ankle) and Eyioma Uwazurike (DE, injured reserve, shoulder). Questionable: Jaylen Waddle (WR, questionable, concussion) and Riley Moss (CB, questionable, concussion).

How good is the Denver Broncos offense and defense?

Offense: 16th in EPA per play (-0.014), 20th on dropbacks, 15th on runs, success rate 39.1%. Defense: 14th in EPA allowed (-0.008), 12th against the pass, 29th against the run.

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Denver Broncos 2026: record, EPA, depth chart and injuries”, https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/broncos (updated 2026-11-10).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

From the Broncos Desk

Open the desk →

The Lab ReportBroncos are 7-2, but the snaps say 4.1 wins and the 11th seed in the conferenceDenver's real record runs 2.9 wins ahead of its deserved one, and a thin two-minute drill gives little cushion against Las Vegas.Nov 10, 2026 · 2 min read The TapeBonitto's strip sack on B.Young closes out Broncos' 26-21 win over PanthersNov 8, 2026 · 3 min read Scouting ReportBroncos defense meets a Panthers offense that ranks 12th in EPA per playNov 7, 2026 · 2 min read

The Wire

The Verdict · 2026

The Broncos, judged from every snap

Due to fall+2.9 wins above what the snaps earned

Real record7-2

Deserved4.1wins

Looking back, not ahead. Deserved wins grade how well a team has played, from every snap of the games already played. They are not a forecast of the games to come. How well they hold up

+2.9 luck wins · luckiest in the NFL · net EPA per snap 20th

Bars: deserved win probability, from the snaps50% line

Bottom lineLucky in 3 games of 9.

How to read this chart

The track:: solid dot = real wins, ring = deserved wins (the record the snaps earned), on a scale from 0 to 9 games. The colored gap between them is the luck.
The strip:: one tile per game, oldest first, with the opponent and the score. The bar is how often the Broncos would win a replay of the same snaps; above the middle line they deserved to win.
The label:: Earned or Fair loss = the result matched the play; Coin flip = it could have gone either way; Lucky / Robbed = the result went against the play.

One-score games6-0decided by 8 or fewer

Chicken Index79%3rd most timid of 28

Flags, net+43win prob. points · 7th

Bounce & kick luck+15.5points · +1.7 a game

Latest ruling · Week 9

Panthers played like a 4.4-point better team. A team that plays like that wins 79% of the time. Panthers lost.

From the Lab

The lab file

All Lab tools →

Scheme DNALeast middle of the field, most rpo rate in the leagueClosest twin: Jets (64%)Clock IQ26th of 32 at managing the clockSean Payton · 10 timeouts burned · 0 halves left on the table Deserved Standings

Real27-2

Deserved–4.1-4.9

In a playoff spot the snaps did not earnSeeds in the AFC, real and as if every game went to the team that deserved it Market vs Snaps−1.8The market overrates themPoints a game the snaps beat the line · 7-2 against the spread Sliding Doors2losses that one coin-flip play could have flipped45 points of win probability lost to those plays, 280 saved in wins

The season, week by week

Offense EPA/playDefense EPA prevented

Wk 10Bye

Bars above the line are good: offense adding expected points, defense taking them away. The middle line is league average zero.Rest days and miles traveled, all 32 →

The road ahead

Playoff odds, all 32 →

Playoff oddsBroncos7-2 · proj 11.5-5.5 · 5th in AFC90%▲ 11 pts

Win it all 1.6% · likeliest seed No. 5 (27%)Full odds →

Next 5 · schedule leftNo. 32 hardest of 32 · avg opp -2.3 →

Regular season · rank among 32 teams

Where the Broncos stand

Offense

EPA per play-0.01416th

Dropback EPA+0.02120th

Rush EPA-0.06515th

Success rate39.1%28th

Defense

EPA allowed-0.00814th

Pass EPA allowed-0.00112th

Rush EPA allowed-0.02029th

Success allowed41.1%10th

Pass rate over expected: -1.3% (16th most pass-heavy given down, distance and score). 517 offensive plays logged.

Fantasy points allowed per game: QB 18.4 (16th most) · RB 24.8 (11th most) · WR 28.1 (26th most) · TE 19.7 (2nd most). Defense vs position

Who produces

EPA from the nflverse play-by-play model

Quarterback · 310 dropbacksB.Nix+0.021EPA / dropback-1.1CPOE5.6aDOT39%success

Rushing	Car	Yds	TD	EPA/car	Success
J.Dobbins RB	98	324	3	-0.19	29%
J.Coleman RB	47	191	3	+0.01	45%
R.Harvey RB	24	87	1	-0.03	46%
B.Nix QB	20	33	1	-0.15	40%

Targets	Tgt	Target share	Air share	aDOT	Yds	TD	EPA/tgt
J.Waddle WR	54	21%	33%	10.0	337	2	+0.11
C.Sutton WR	47	18%	33%	11.2	266	2	-0.15
E.Engram TE	30	11%	9%	5.0	169	1	-0.03
R.Harvey RB	28	11%	-5%	-2.8	217	1	+0.22
P.Bryant WR	18	7%	8%	7.3	189	2	+0.99
M.Mims WR	16	6%	5%	4.5	92	0	-0.05
T.Franklin WR	15	6%	13%	14.0	100	0	+0.00
J.Coleman RB	14	5%	-2%	-2.1	128	0	+0.42

Depth chart, on the field

QuestionableOut / IRFull roster →

Offense3WR 1TE

DefenseBase 3-4 D

22FSJones Skinner

2LCBSurtain II Barron

99LDEAllen Jones

49LILBSingleton Turner

29NBMcMillian Barron

93NTJones Jackson

21RCBMoss Abrams-Draine ·

97RDERoach Onyedim

40RILBStrnad Reid

15SLBBonitto Robinson

9SSHufanga Key

0WLBCooper Tillman

HolderJeremy Crawshaw Kick ReturnerMarvin Mims Jr.Long SnapperMitchell Fraboni PunterJeremy Crawshaw Place KickerWil Lutz Punt ReturnerMarvin Mims Jr.

Snap counts

Share of team snaps, every weekThis week's starters →

Offense	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
Ben PowersG	100	100	100	98	100	100	100	100	100
Mike McGlincheyT	100	100	100	98	100	100	100	100	100
Luke WattenbergC	100	100	100	98	100	100	100	100	100
Garett BollesT	100	100	100	98	100	100	100	100	100
Bo NixQB	100	100	100	98	100	100	100	100	100
Quinn MeinerzG	100	97	100	98	100	100	100	100	100
Courtland SuttonWR	76	73	87	73	81	77	70	81	85
Jonah ColemanRB	6	40					49	66	77
Pat BryantWR	59	66	70	36					68
Adam TrautmanTE	37	65	40	45	48	55	61	56	55
Troy FranklinWR	33	21	18	48	63	52	46	71	55
Evan EngramTE	63	52	60	67	48	52	39	48	51
Marvin MimsWR	18			27	19	27	26	29	25
Nate AdkinsTE	25	37	34	21	31	37	39	31	24

Defense	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
Alex SingletonLB	99	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Patrick Surtain IICB	100	100	100	44				100	100
JL SkinnerS		2			1			13	91
Justin StrnadLB	80	93	66	85	90	89	75	72	89
Jahdae BarronCB	6	3	28	61	100	100	65	6	79
Zach AllenDL	61	81	71	64	69	67	58	71	76
Taylor RappS						76	62	81	70
Ja'Quan McMillianCB	71	68	63	32	55	76	62	81	64
Nik BonittoLB	52	68	67	59	57	56	58	59	61
Jonathon CooperLB							56	61	61
Malcolm RoachDT	46	58	62	65	61	49	47	55	59
D.J. JonesDT	57	42	44	53	43	28	37	46	41
Quandarrius RobinsonLB	46	32	41	65	48	51	51	41	39
Dondrea TillmanLB	46	31	31		40	48	36	39	39