Falcons 0, Buccaneers 16: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 8 · Sun, Nov 1 · Raymond James StadiumFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
ATL	0	0	0	0	0
TB	6	3	7	0	16

Home · 3-6Tampa BayBuccaneers16

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 8:58 PM ET

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat the Atlanta Falcons 16-0 on Sun, Nov 1 at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL (Week 8, 2026 season). Records after the game: Falcons 3-6, Buccaneers 3-6. M.Penix (ATL) led all players with +2.9 EPA on 4 carries.

Who won Falcons vs Buccaneers?

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers won 16-0. By quarter: ATL 0-0-0-0, TB 6-3-7-0.

Who was the best player in Falcons vs Buccaneers?

By expected points added: M.Penix (ATL, +2.9 EPA on 4 carries), J.Dotson (ATL, +1.1 EPA on 5 targets) and K.Gainwell (TB, +0.3 EPA on 25 carries).

What was the turning point of Falcons vs Buccaneers?

The biggest swing in win probability (10 points toward the Buccaneers) came in Q1 at 7:35: M.Penix pass short right intended for D.London INTERCEPTED by A.Anzalone at ATL 41. A.Anzalone to ATL 33 for 8 yards (D.London).PENALTY on ATL-D.London, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at ATL 33.

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Falcons 0, Buccaneers 16: Week 8 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-11-01-atl-at-tb (updated 2026-11-11).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 8 issue →

Week 8EarnedGame file →

Falcons29% success · −0.57 EPA/play

016

Buccaneers42% success · −0.20 EPA/play

ATL <1% deserveddeserved >99% TB

Buccaneers earned it: the snaps said Buccaneers by 14.6, a deserved win probability of more than 99%.

Deserved marginTB by 14.6

Real marginTB by 16

Luck pts ATL−4.8

Luck pts TB+5.8

The swingQ1 7:35 · ATL · −14 pts of win probability. 9-M.Penix pass short right intended for 5-D.London INTERCEPTED by 34-A.Anzalone at ATL 41. 34-A.Anzalone to ATL 33 for 8 yards (5-D.London). PENALTY on ATL-5-D.London, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at ATL 33.

Flags that moved this game

1Unnecessary RoughnessATL → helped TB · Wk 8 Q1 7:35 · 9-M.Penix pass short right intended for 5-D.London INTERCEPTED by 34-A.Anzalone at ATL 41. 34-A.Anzalone to ATL 33 for 8 yards…+14.1 WP
2Offensive HoldingTB → helped ATL · Wk 8 Q3 9:16 · 9-R.Dixon punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-86-E.Deckers, Touchback. PENALTY on TB-41-K.Kieft, Offensive Holding, 10 yards,…+3.6 WP

Fourth downs our model disagreed with

1ATL · 4th & 1Kevin Stefanski chose Punt at own 16, Wk 8 Q3 11:24, down 9. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.15 EP
2ATL · 4th & 6Kevin Stefanski chose Go for it at opp 32, Wk 8 Q2 12:39, down 6. Model: Field goal (clear call). Result: stopped.−0.83 EP
3ATL · 4th & 2Kevin Stefanski chose Punt at own 32, Wk 8 Q1 2:28, down 6. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.67 EP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA130 plays, one strand0 lead changes · 11 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewAlan Eck8 accepted flags in this game · 14.3 a game this season (about league average)Market vs SnapsLine: TB by 2.5 · Snaps: TB by 14.6Buccaneers covered; the snaps agree

0@16

Week 8Changes the winner

If the 46-yard kick had missed

Falcons after the play34%what really happened

Q1 7:47 4-C.McLaughlin 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

TB ▲ATL ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+10%Q1 7:35 · for TBM.Penix pass short right intended for D.London INTERCEPTED by A.Anzalone at ATL 41. A.Anzalone to ATL 33 for 8 yards (D.London).PENALTY on ATL-D.London, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at ATL 33.
+8%Q1 6:42 · for ATLB.Mayfield to ATL 17 for -2 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at ATL 18. B.Mayfield to ATL 16 for 2 yards. Lateral to B.Irving to ATL 1 for 15 yards (J.Bates). FUMBLES (J.Bates), ball out of bounds in End Zone, Touchback.
+7%Q1 12:07 · for ATLM.Penix up the middle to TB 37 for 2 yards (C.Kancey).
+6%Q1 5:44 · for TB(Shotgun) M.Penix pass short middle intended for J.Dotson INTERCEPTED by A.Anzalone at ATL 31. A.Anzalone to ATL 19 for 12 yards (Z.Branch).
+6%Q1 12:47 · for TB(Shotgun) Bi.Robinson left guard to TB 39 for 1 yard (J.Parrish; V.Vea).

Every drive, on the field

TB attacks →← ATL attacks

Q1 15:00MISS10p · 35y · 5:05
Q1 9:55FG5p · 29y · 2:12
Q1 7:43INT1p · 0y · 0:17
Q1 7:26FUM2p · 17y · 0:54
Q1 6:32INT3p · 0y · 0:56
Q1 5:36FG4p · 3y · 1:34
Q1 4:02PUNT3p · 8y · 1:46
Q1 2:16PUNT4p · 14y · 2:22
Q2 14:54INT5p · 30y · 2:21
Q2 12:33FG13p · 60y · 8:29
Q2 4:04DOWNS6p · 19y · 2:38
Q2 1:26PUNT4p · 18y · 0:52
Q2 0:34HALF1p · -3y · 0:34
Q3 15:00PUNT3p · 5y · 1:39
Q3 13:21PUNT3p · 9y · 2:04
Q3 11:17PUNT3p · 1y · 2:09
Q3 9:08PUNT3p · 6y · 1:59
Q3 7:09TD6p · 90y · 3:22
Q3 3:47INT10p · 43y · 5:18
Q4 13:29PUNT8p · 30y · 6:11
Q4 7:18PUNT3p · 0y · 0:21
Q4 6:57PUNT3p · -1y · 2:22
Q4 4:35DOWNS5p · 84y · 1:25
Q4 3:10END8p · 51y · 3:10

Falcons11 drives0scoring drives (0 TD)0%drives ending in pointsOWN 25avg starting field position4three-and-outs6turnovers incl. downs

Buccaneers11 drives4scoring drives (1 TD)36%drives ending in pointsOWN 38avg starting field position3three-and-outs1turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
7:43Field goal C.McLaughlin 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-E.Deckers, Holder-R.Dixon.0–3
Q1
4:02Field goalC.McLaughlin 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-E.Deckers, Holder-R.Dixon.0–6
Q2
4:04Field goalC.McLaughlin 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-E.Deckers, Holder-R.Dixon.0–9
Q3
3:47Touchdown(Shotgun) B.Irving right guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: TB-T.Wirfs has returned to the game. C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-E.Deckers, Holder-R.Dixon.0–16

Team stats

ATLvsTB

224Total yards322

125Passing yards-2

99Rushing yards324

4.3Yards per play5.4

8First downs16

0-12 · 0%Third down4-13 · 31%

3-6Fourth down0-0

0-1Red zone TDs1-3

8/24Comp / att0/3

3.5Yards per carry5.8

4Turnovers1

0Sacks allowed1 (−2 yds)

3 for 25Penalties5 for 40

24:44Possession35:16

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play-0.521-0.167

Dropback EPA-0.833-1.300

Rush EPA-0.233-0.063

Success rate29%42%

Explosive plays310

Plays5259

Who moved the needle

M.PenixCarries: 4+2.9

J.DotsonTargets: 5+1.1

K.GainwellCarries: 25+0.3

B.MayfieldCarries: 3-1.0

K.HerbertCarries: 4-1.8

B.IrvingCarries: 27-4.6

Cost their side the most

M.PenixDropbacks: 25-20.8

D.LondonTargets: 6-10.5

Bi.RobinsonCarries: 19-7.4

Box score

Atlanta Falcons

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Michael Penix Jr.QB	8/24	125	5.2	0	4	0-0	8.2	12.0

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
Bijan RobinsonRB	19	76	4.0	26
Khalil HerbertRB	4	12	3.0	9
Michael Penix Jr.QB	5	11	2.2	7

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	LONG
Jahan DotsonWR	2	5	95	47.5	76
Austin HooperTE	1	1	9	9.0	9
Drake LondonWR	1	6	8	8.0	8
Kyle Pitts Sr.TE	2	5	6	3.0	5
Olamide ZaccheausWR	1	2	4	4.0	4
Khalil HerbertRB	1	1	3	3.0	3
Charlie WoernerTE	0	2	0	0.0	0
Bijan RobinsonRB	0	1	0	0.0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	QB HTS
Kendal DanielsLB	13	6	0	0	0
Xavier WattsS	9	3	0	0	0
C.J. HendersonCB	8	4	0	0	0
Harold Perkins Jr.LB	7	5	1	1	1
Jessie Bates IIIS	6	5	0	0	0
Maason SmithDT	6	2	0	1	0
LaCale LondonDE	5	1	0	0	0
Zach HarrisonDE	4	2	0	0	0
Cameron ThomasDE	4	1	0	0	0
Gervon Dexter Sr.DT	3	2	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Nick FolkPK	0/1	0.0	0	0/0	0

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Baker MayfieldQB	0/3	0	0.0	0	0	1-2	2.7	39.6

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Bucky IrvingRB	27	170	6.3	1	46
Kenny GainwellRB	25	140	5.6	0	28
Baker MayfieldQB	4	14	3.5	0	7

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Chris Godwin Jr.WR	0	1	0	0.0	0	0
Kenny GainwellRB	0	1	0	0.0	0	0
Ted Hurst IIIWR	0	1	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	TFL	PD
Antoine Winfield Jr.S	7	5	0	0
Jacob ParrishCB	7	4	1	2
Alex AnzaloneLB	6	3	1	2
Josiah TrotterLB	6	2	0	0
Calijah KanceyDT	4	3	0	0
SirVocea DennisLB	4	2	0	0
Elijah RobertsDE	3	2	0	0
Rakeem Nunez-RochesDT	2	1	0	0
Vita VeaDT	2	1	0	0
Tykee SmithS	2	1	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Chase McLaughlinPK	3/3	100.0	46	1/1	10

Before kickoff · Regular season through week 7 · rank out of 32

Where it was expected to be decided

1Buccaneers pass defense vs Falcons dropback offense
The Buccaneers' pass defense ranks 3rd in EPA per dropback (-0.10 allowed, 269 dropbacks faced) and faces a Falcons dropback offense ranked 26th (-0.09, 227 dropbacks).
26thATL offense23 spots apart3rdTB defense
2Buccaneers third-down defense vs Falcons third-down offense
The Buccaneers' third-down defense ranks 9th in third-down conversion rate (36.4% allowed, 88 third downs faced) and faces a Falcons third-down offense ranked 23rd (38.6%, 83 third downs).
23rdATL offense14 spots apart9thTB defense
3Buccaneers takeaway defense vs Falcons ball security
The Buccaneers' takeaway defense ranks 8th in turnovers per game (1.4 takeaways a game, 7 games) and faces a Falcons ball security ranked 22nd (1.4 giveaways a game, 7 games).
22ndATL offense14 spots apart8thTB defenseSmall sample, read with care Why sample size matters

When the Falcons have the ballEdge TB · +23 ranks

ATL dropback offenseEPA per dropbackTB pass defense

26th-0.09227 dropbacks

TB +23

-0.10 allowed269 dropbacks faced3rd

ATL run gameEPA per rushTB run defense

8th+0.01191 rushes

-0.13 allowed136 rushes faced6th

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Buccaneers have the ballEdge ATL · +18 ranks

TB dropback offenseEPA per dropbackATL pass defense

30th-0.15252 dropbacks

ATL +18

+0.01 allowed308 dropbacks faced12th

TB run gameEPA per rushATL run defense

7th+0.01180 rushes

TB +8

-0.08 allowed152 rushes faced15th

Third downEdge TB · +14 ranks

ATL third-down offensethird-down conversion rateTB third-down defense

23rd38.6%83 third downs

TB +14

36.4% allowed88 third downs faced9th

TB third-down offensethird-down conversion rateATL third-down defense

16th40.4%99 third downs

43.3% allowed97 third downs faced22nd

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneNo big edge

ATL red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateTB red-zone defense

8th67%21 trips

53% allowed19 trips faced12th

TB red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateATL red-zone defense

20th55%22 trips

67% allowed27 trips faced22nd

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsEdge TB · +9 ranks

ATL big-play offenseexplosive-play rateTB defense against big plays

13th9.6%418 plays

TB +9

7.4% allowed405 plays faced4th

TB big-play offenseexplosive-play rateATL defense against big plays

17th8.8%432 plays

8.0% allowed460 plays faced11th

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksNo big edge

ATL pass protectionsack rateTB pass rush

22nd7.0% sacked227 dropbacks

5.9% of dropbacks269 dropbacks faced17th

TB pass protectionsack rateATL pass rush

28th8.7% sacked252 dropbacks

5.5% of dropbacks308 dropbacks faced21st

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversEdge TB · +14 ranks

ATL ball securityturnovers per gameTB takeaway defense

22nd1.4 giveaways a game7 games

TB +14

1.4 takeaways a game7 games8th

TB ball securityturnovers per gameATL takeaway defense

25th1.6 giveaways a game7 games

ATL +12

1.3 takeaways a game7 games13th

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

Sample: ATL 7 games, 418 offensive and 460 defensive plays · TB 7 games, 432 offensive and 405 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

Corey LevinC→ Ryan Neuzil

Divine DeabloRILB→ Harold Perkins Jr.

James Pearce Jr.SLB→ LaCale London

DeMarcco HellamsSS→ Jessie Bates III

Emeka EgbukaWR→ Tez Johnson

Benjamin MorrisonRCB→ Keionte Scott

AwayFalcons4 changes