Titans 26, Colts 20: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 6 · Sun, Oct 18 · Lucas Oil StadiumFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
TEN	0	0	6	20	26
IND	0	13	0	7	20

Home · 2-7IndianapolisColts20

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 5:20 PM ET

The Tennessee Titans beat the Indianapolis Colts 26-20 on Sun, Oct 18 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN (Week 6, 2026 season). Records after the game: Titans 1-7, Colts 2-7. C.Tate (TEN) led all players with +5.8 EPA on 7 targets.

Who won Titans vs Colts?

The Tennessee Titans won 26-20. By quarter: TEN 0-0-6-20, IND 0-13-0-7.

Who was the best player in Titans vs Colts?

By expected points added: C.Tate (TEN, +5.8 EPA on 7 targets), K.Allen (IND, +4.9 EPA on 11 targets) and J.Taylor (IND, +3.2 EPA on 4 targets).

What was the turning point of Titans vs Colts?

The biggest swing in win probability (30 points toward the Titans) came in Q4 at 10:17: R.Sanchez punt is BLOCKED by J.Chestnut, Center-L.Rhodes, RECOVERED by TEN-O.Oladejo at IND 14. O.Oladejo for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND-R.Sanchez was injured during the play. PENALTY on TEN, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. J.Slye extr

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Titans 26, Colts 20: Week 6 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-10-18-ten-at-ind (updated 2026-11-10).

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The Verdict

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Titans39% success · −0.15 EPA/play

2620

Colts42% success · −0.07 EPA/play

TEN 37% deserveddeserved 63% IND

Titans won as the underdog of the snaps: 37%, with Colts better by 1.9.

Deserved marginIND by 1.9

Real marginTEN by 6

Luck pts TEN+1.4

Luck pts IND−4.5

The swingQ4 10:25 · IND · −28 pts of win probability. 8-R.Sanchez punt is BLOCKED by 36-J.Chestnut, Center-46-L.Rhodes, RECOVERED by TEN-7-O.Oladejo at IND 14. 7-O.Oladejo for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND-8-R.Sanchez was injured during the play. PENALTY on TEN,…

Flags that moved this game

1Defensive Pass InterferenceIND → helped TEN · Wk 6 Q4 5:26 · 1-C.Ward pass incomplete deep left to 14-C.Tate (29-C.Taylor-Britt). ** Injury Update: IND-25-A.Haulcy has returned to the game.…+10.2 WP
2Running Into the KickerTEN → helped IND · Wk 6 Q3 12:37 · 8-R.Sanchez punts 34 yards to TEN 21, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds. PENALTY on TEN-56-T.Jones, Running Into the Kicker, 5…+4.2 WP

Fourth downs our model disagreed with

1TEN · 4th & 1Robert Saleh chose Punt at own 43, Wk 6 Q2 8:49, down 7. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.49 EP
2IND · 4th & 2Shane Steichen chose Field goal at opp 5, Wk 6 Q2 2:09, up 7. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: good.−1.31 EP
3TEN · 4th & 1Robert Saleh chose Punt at own 15, Wk 6 Q2 15:00, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.15 EP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA141 plays, one strand1 lead change · 7 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewBill Vinovich13 accepted flags in this game · 13.9 a game this season (about league average)Market vs SnapsLine: IND by 6.5 · Snaps: IND by 1.9Titans covered; the snaps agree

26@20

Week 6

If the Colts had converted that fourth-and-17

Colts after the play4%what really happened

Q4 1:07 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep middle to 13-L.Treadwell (53-A.Hill).

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

IND ▲TEN ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+30%Q4 10:17 · for TENR.Sanchez punt is BLOCKED by J.Chestnut, Center-L.Rhodes, RECOVERED by TEN-O.Oladejo at IND 14. O.Oladejo for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND-R.Sanchez was injured during the play. PENALTY on TEN, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. J.Slye extra point is GOOD, Center-M.Cox, Holder-T.Townsend.
+17%Q4 2:03 · for TENJ.Slye 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-M.Cox, Holder-T.Townsend.
+12%Q4 5:26 · for TENC.Ward pass incomplete deep left to C.Tate (C.Taylor-Britt). ** Injury Update: IND-A.Haulcy has returned to the game. PENALTY on IND-C.Taylor-Britt, Defensive Pass Interference, 36 yards, enforced at TEN 17 - No Play.
+12%Q4 1:45 · for TEN(Shotgun) D.Jones sacked at IND 31 for -7 yards (J.Johnson).
+12%Q4 1:07 · for TEN(Shotgun) D.Jones pass incomplete deep middle to L.Treadwell (A.Hill).

Every drive, on the field

IND attacks →← TEN attacks

Q1 15:00PUNT10p · 43y · 5:23
Q1 9:37INT13p · 72y · 7:01
Q1 2:36PUNT3p · 9y · 2:47
Q2 14:49TD7p · 70y · 3:42
Q2 11:07PUNT3p · 9y · 2:25
Q2 8:42FG13p · 75y · 6:36
Q2 2:06INT1p · 0y · 0:16
Q2 1:50FG6p · 20y · 1:39
Q2 0:11HALF1p · -1y · 0:11
Q3 15:00FUM1p · 4y · 0:15
Q3 14:45FG7p · 22y · 1:15
Q3 13:30INT11p · 36y · 6:29
Q3 7:01FG9p · 51y · 3:40
Q3 3:21PUNT5p · 5y · 3:37
Q4 14:44TD4p · 28y · 1:44
Q4 13:00BLOCK5p · 8y · 2:43
Q4 10:17TD8p · 72y · 4:45
Q4 5:32FG7p · 52y · 3:29
Q4 2:03DOWNS5p · 8y · 1:02
Q4 1:01FG4p · 5y · 0:18
Q4 0:43DOWNS6p · 19y · 0:43

Titans9 drives5scoring drives (1 TD)56%drives ending in pointsOWN 36avg starting field position2three-and-outs1turnovers incl. downs

Colts11 drives5scoring drives (3 TD)45%drives ending in pointsOWN 29avg starting field position0three-and-outs5turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q2
11:07TouchdownD.Jones pass short left to M.Alie-Cox for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. S.Shrader extra point is GOOD, Center-L.Rhodes, Holder-R.Sanchez.0–7
Q2
2:06Field goalS.Shrader 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-L.Rhodes, Holder-R.Sanchez.0–10
Q2
0:11Field goalS.Shrader 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-L.Rhodes, Holder-R.Sanchez.0–13
Q3
13:30Field goal J.Slye 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-M.Cox, Holder-T.Townsend.3–13
Q3
3:21Field goalJ.Slye 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-M.Cox, Holder-T.Townsend.6–13
Q4
13:00TouchdownC.Ward pass short left to C.Tate for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. J.Slye extra point is GOOD, Center-M.Cox, Holder-T.Townsend.13–13
Q4
10:17TouchdownR.Sanchez punt is BLOCKED by J.Chestnut, Center-L.Rhodes, RECOVERED by TEN-O.Oladejo at IND 14. O.Oladejo for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND-R.Sanchez was injured during the play. PENALTY on TEN, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. J.Slye extra point is GOOD, Center-M.Cox, Holder-T.Townsend.20–13
Q4
5:32TouchdownJ.Taylor left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. S.Shrader extra point is GOOD, Center-L.Rhodes, Holder-R.Sanchez. ** Injury Update: IND-R.Sanchez has returned to the game.20–20
Q4
2:03Field goalJ.Slye 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-M.Cox, Holder-T.Townsend.23–20
Q4
0:43Field goalJ.Slye 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-M.Cox, Holder-T.Townsend.26–20

Team stats

TENvsIND

186Total yards399

102Passing yards234

84Rushing yards165

4.1Yards per play5.1

11First downs24

3-10 · 30%Third down7-15 · 47%

0-0Fourth down1-3

1-2Red zone TDs2-4

11/22Comp / att22/42

3.7Yards per carry5.5

1Turnovers3

0Sacks allowed6 (−35 yds)

8 for 54Penalties5 for 61

21:28Possession38:32

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play-0.147-0.105

Dropback EPA-0.152-0.095

Rush EPA-0.142-0.122

Success rate39%42%

Explosive plays17

Plays4477

Who moved the needle

C.TateTargets: 7+5.8

K.AllenTargets: 11+4.9

J.TaylorTargets: 4+3.2

J.DownsTargets: 8+0.5

S.McGowanCarries: 4+0.3

T.PollardCarries: 19-1.8

Cost their side the most

W.RobinsonTargets: 7-5.9

W.MalloryTargets: 6-5.2

J.TaylorCarries: 21-4.8

Box score

Tennessee Titans

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Cam WardQB	11/22	102	4.6	1	1	0-0	42.2	59.3

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
Tony PollardRB	19	76	4.0	16
Cam WardQB	3	7	2.3	5
Tyjae SpearsRB	1	1	1.0	1

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Carnell TateWR	6	7	70	11.7	1	19
Wan'Dale RobinsonWR	3	7	22	7.3	0	10
Tyjae SpearsRB	1	1	7	7.0	0	7
Elic AyomanorWR	1	2	3	3.0	0	3
Tony PollardRB	0	1	0	0.0	0	0
Calvin RidleyWR	0	2	0	0.0	0	0
Daniel BellingerTE	0	2	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Amani HookerS	13	7	0	0	1	0
Tony AdamsS	12	8	1	1	1	1
Anthony Hill Jr.LB	9	3	0	1	1	0
Cedric GrayLB	7	4	0	0	0	0
Jeffery SimmonsDT	6	3	2	2	0	2
Marcus HarrisCB	4	1	0	0	1	0
Cor'Dale FlottCB	3	2	0	0	1	0
Joshua WilliamsCB	3	2	0	0	2	0
Isaiah OliverS	3	1	0	0	1	0
Cody BartonLB	3	1	0	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Joey SlyePK	4/4	100.0	56	2/2	14

Indianapolis Colts

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Daniel JonesQB	22/42	269	6.4	1	2	6-35	22.9	60.5

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Jonathan TaylorRB	21	94	4.5	1	20
Daniel JonesQB	3	30	10.0	0	17
Seth McGowanRB	4	27	6.8	0	18
Deion BurksWR	1	7	7.0	0	7
Josh DownsWR	1	7	7.0	0	7

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Keenan AllenWR	8	11	82	10.3	0	19
Jonathan TaylorRB	2	4	57	28.5	0	38
Deion BurksWR	2	2	41	20.5	0	36
Josh DownsWR	4	8	40	10.0	0	23
Laquon TreadwellWR	2	5	21	10.5	0	14
Will MalloryTE	2	6	20	10.0	0	15
Pharaoh BrownTE	1	1	7	7.0	0	7
Mo Alie-CoxTE	1	1	1	1.0	1	1

Defense	TOT	SOLO	PD	QB HTS
Akeem Davis-GaitherLB	9	5	0	0
A.J. HaulcyS	6	2	0	0
Justin WalleyCB	4	2	0	0
Adetomiwa AdebaworeDT	4	1	0	1
Bryce BoettcherLB	4	1	0	0
Grover StewartDT	3	0	0	0
Austin AjiakeLB	3	0	0	0
Cam Taylor-BrittCB	2	2	0	0
Jaylahn TuimoloauDE	2	2	3	0
Kapena GushikenCB	2	2	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Spencer ShraderPK	2/2	100.0	47	2/2	8

Before kickoff · Regular season through week 5 · rank out of 32

Where it was expected to be decided

1Colts third-down defense vs Titans third-down offense
The Colts' third-down defense ranks 3rd in third-down conversion rate (31.0% allowed, 58 third downs faced) and faces a Titans third-down offense ranked 26th (35.6%, 59 third downs).
26thTEN offense23 spots apart3rdIND defense
2Colts run game vs Titans run defense
The Colts' run game ranks 2nd in EPA per rush (+0.10, 131 rushes) against a Titans run defense ranked 16th (-0.08 allowed, 146 rushes faced).
2ndIND offense14 spots apart16thTEN defense
3Titans ball security vs Colts takeaway defense
The Titans' ball security ranks 12th in turnovers per game (1.0 giveaways a game, 5 games) against a Colts takeaway defense ranked 30th (0.4 takeaways a game, 5 games).
12thTEN offense18 spots apart30thIND defenseSmall sample, read with care Why sample size matters

When the Titans have the ballEdge TEN · +14 ranks

TEN dropback offenseEPA per dropbackIND pass defense

31st-0.18177 dropbacks

IND +8

+0.11 allowed185 dropbacks faced23rd

TEN run gameEPA per rushIND run defense

18th-0.1097 rushes

TEN +14

+0.08 allowed117 rushes faced32nd

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Colts have the ballEdge IND · +14 ranks

IND dropback offenseEPA per dropbackTEN pass defense

30th-0.16189 dropbacks

+0.22 allowed163 dropbacks faced27th

IND run gameEPA per rushTEN run defense

2nd+0.10131 rushes

IND +14

-0.08 allowed146 rushes faced16th

Third downEdge IND · +23 ranks

TEN third-down offensethird-down conversion rateIND third-down defense

26th35.6%59 third downs

IND +23

31.0% allowed58 third downs faced3rd

IND third-down offensethird-down conversion rateTEN third-down defense

23rd37.3%67 third downs

TEN +10

39.1% allowed64 third downs faced13th

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneEdge IND · +9 ranks

TEN red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateIND red-zone defense

28th46%13 trips

IND +9

63% allowed16 trips faced19th

IND red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateTEN red-zone defense

9th67%15 trips

56% allowed16 trips faced15th

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsNo big edge

TEN big-play offenseexplosive-play rateIND defense against big plays

27th6.9%274 plays

9.9% allowed302 plays faced21st

IND big-play offenseexplosive-play rateTEN defense against big plays

15th9.4%320 plays

9.4% allowed309 plays faced18th

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksNo big edge

TEN pass protectionsack rateIND pass rush

14th5.6% sacked177 dropbacks

5.4% of dropbacks185 dropbacks faced20th

IND pass protectionsack rateTEN pass rush

8th4.8% sacked189 dropbacks

6.1% of dropbacks163 dropbacks faced15th

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversEdge TEN · +18 ranks

TEN ball securityturnovers per gameIND takeaway defense

12th1.0 giveaways a game5 games

TEN +18

0.4 takeaways a game5 games30th

IND ball securityturnovers per gameTEN takeaway defense

22nd1.6 giveaways a game5 games

IND +8

0.4 takeaways a game5 games30th

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

Sample: TEN 5 games, 274 offensive and 309 defensive plays · IND 5 games, 320 offensive and 302 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

Solomon ThomasRDT→ Jeffery Simmons

Kevin Winston Jr.FS→ Tony Adams

Tyler WarrenTE→ Will Mallory

Jalen FarmerLG→ Quenton Nelson

Luke TenutaRT→ Jalen Travis

CJ AllenMLB→ DeForest Buckner

AwayTitans4 questionable · 2 changes