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The Verdict2026 · AFC South · through Week 9

Colts logoIndianapolis ColtsThe Verdict

Colts are 2-7; the play says 2.8 wins. Record and play agree, within a game. They are 1-4 in one-score games. On fourth down, Shane Steichen kicked away 8 of 17 situations our model called a go.

This week's issueLeague Luck IndexHow we judge
Luck wins · 26th of 32−0.82-7 real · 2.8 deserved · 3.0 Pythagorean
Luck points · 29th of 32−10.4fumble bounces −6.3 · opponents' kicks −4.1
Chicken Index · 17th of 3247%Shane Steichen · 6.5 expected points lost on 46 graded calls
Flags net · 21st of 32−17.0 WP54 flags for 392 yards against · 70 drawn

Every game, judged

latest first

Bottom lineNone of these 9 games went against the play; 2 were coin flips.

How to read this chart
Each card is one game.
Under each team: its success rate (share of snaps that kept the offense on schedule) and EPA per play (expected points added: how much each snap improved its scoring chances; 0 is average).
The split bar is the deserved win probability:
how often each team would win if the game were replayed from the same snaps. Away team on the left, home team on the right, 50-50 at the tick in the middle. The longer side played better.
The stamp is the ruling.
Earned: the winner also played better. Coin flip: the winner deserved it less than 60% of the time. Robbed: the loser deserved to win at least 70% of the time (when this team won one of those, it reads Lucky).
Luck pts
(full cards): real margin minus deserved margin; plus means the scoreboard was kinder than the play.
Week 9EarnedGame file →
Cowboys logoCowboys46% success · +0.14 EPA/play
2723
Colts logoColts44% success · −0.16 EPA/play

Cowboys earned it: the snaps said Cowboys by 13.8, a deserved win probability of 99%.

Deserved marginDAL by 13.8
Real marginDAL by 4
Luck pts DAL−4.8
Luck pts IND+3.6

The swingQ4 1:37 · DAL · +29 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 19-R.Flournoy to IND 19 for 46 yards (1-A.Gardner).

Week 8EarnedGame file →
Colts logoColts40% success · −0.43 EPA/play
742
Jaguars logoJaguars45% success · +0.25 EPA/play

Jaguars earned it: the snaps said Jaguars by 30.3, a deserved win probability of more than 99%.

Deserved marginJAX by 30.3
Real marginJAX by 35
Luck pts IND−0.3
Luck pts JAX−0.1

The swingQ2 9:11 · IND · −10 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor FUMBLES (Aborted) at JAX 49, RECOVERED by JAX-57-Bry.Thomas at 50. JAX-52-D.Hamilton was injured during the play.

The luck sheet

All 32 →
One-score games1-4Decided by 8 points or fewer. Over a season teams win about half of these.
Fumble bounces−6.3 ptsKept 1 of 8 own fumbles; won 4 of 5 by opponents. League offenses keep 53%.
Opponents' kicks−4.1 ptsOpponents made 20 of 23 field goals against an expected 19.1, and 27 of 27 extra points.
Own kicking+9.1 ptsMade 22 of 24 field goals against 19.0 expected by distance. Skill, not luck: not in the luck total.
Net EPA per play−0.17329th of 32 · offense minus defense, passes and runs
Our picks on them5-3Our pregame model in Colts games. All receipts

Coach on trial

Shane Steichen · 46 graded fourth downs · went for it 17×

Bottom lineThe calls against the model in this list cost 6.0 expected points in total.

How to read this chart
Each row is one fourth down:
distance, spot, score, what the coach chose and what our model would have done (a clear call, a lean or a toss-up).
The number on the right
is what the choice cost in expected points (EP, what a possession is worth on average from that spot): −1.00 means about a point thrown away. ✓ = the coach made the model's call.
The result
is what happened next; the grade judges the decision, not the outcome.
  1. 1IND · 4th & 1Shane Steichen chose Punt at own 37, Wk 4 Q1 0:27, down 6. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.34 EP
  2. 2IND · 4th & 2Shane Steichen chose Field goal at opp 5, Wk 6 Q2 2:09, up 7. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: good.−1.31 EP
  3. 3IND · 4th & 1Shane Steichen chose Punt at own 20, Wk 9 Q2 6:02, down 3. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.15 EP
  4. 4IND · 4th & 2Shane Steichen chose Punt at own 28, Wk 9 Q1 9:48, down 3. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.62 EP
  5. 5IND · 4th & 2Shane Steichen chose Field goal at opp 37, Wk 7 Q3 2:19, up 4. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: missed.−0.46 EP
  6. 6IND · 4th & 4Shane Steichen chose Punt at own 48, Wk 2 Q3 5:48, down 4. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.45 EP
  7. 7IND · 4th & 3Shane Steichen chose Punt at own 36, Wk 4 Q1 10:50, down 3. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.38 EP
  8. 8IND · 4th & 2Shane Steichen chose Field goal at opp 34, Wk 4 Q3 7:07, up 4. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: good.−0.25 EP

Brave and right

  1. 1IND · 4th & 1Shane Steichen chose Go for it at opp 45, Wk 7 Q2 4:46, up 1. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
  2. 2IND · 4th & 1Shane Steichen chose Go for it at opp 48, Wk 3 Q3 3:24, up 6. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
  3. 3IND · 4th & 1Shane Steichen chose Go for it at opp 49, Wk 2 Q1 2:27, down 3. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
  4. 4IND · 4th & 1Shane Steichen chose Go for it at own 48, Wk 4 Q2 10:35, down 6. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
How to read this chart
Every fourth down this season.
Go EP, Punt EP and FG EP are the expected points of each option from that spot: the highest is the model's call.
Cost:
how many expected points the coach's choice gave up against the best one; ✓ = he made the best call. Late-game and lopsided situations are listed but not graded.
SituationWkChoiceModelGo EPPunt EPFG EPCostResult
4th & 2 · own 28 · Q1 9:489PuntGo for it-0.54-1.16–−0.62punted
4th & 8 · own 40 · Q2 13:089PuntPunt-1.01-0.63–✓punted
4th & 18 · own 26 · Q2 9:319PuntPunt-2.49-1.27–✓punted
4th & 1 · own 20 · Q2 6:029PuntGo for it-0.46-1.61–−1.15punted
4th & 13 · own 37 · Q2 1:009Puntnot graded-1.56-0.75–punted
4th & 4 · own 37 · Q3 14:029PuntGo for it (toss-up)-0.61-0.75–−0.14punted
4th & 16 · opp 29 · Q3 6:169Field goalField goal0.47–2.11✓good
4th & 4 · opp 41 · Q4 6:019Field goalGo for it (toss-up)0.77-0.160.55−0.22good
4th & 8 · opp 32 · Q4 1:419Field goalnot graded0.75-0.111.82good
4th & 11 · opp 49 · Q1 12:478PuntPunt-0.56-0.30–✓punted
4th & 6 · own 24 · Q1 3:338PuntPunt-1.80-1.38–✓punted
4th & 7 · own 49 · Q2 12:508PuntGo for it (toss-up)-0.34-0.35–−0.01punted
4th & 5 · own 43 · Q2 4:538Puntnot graded-0.43-0.52–punted
4th & 12 · own 13 · Q2 1:138Puntnot graded-3.13-2.07–punted
4th & 3 · own 42 · Q3 10:378Go for itnot graded-0.04-0.56–stopped
4th & 6 · own 38 · Q4 9:248Go for itnot graded-0.90-0.71–stopped
4th & 12 · own 13 · Q4 4:468Puntnot graded-3.13-2.07–punted
4th & 3 · own 18 · Q1 6:217PuntGo for it (toss-up)-1.56-1.73–−0.17punted
4th & 22 · own 38 · Q2 12:167PuntPunt-1.81-0.71–✓punted
4th & 1 · opp 45 · Q2 4:467Go for itGo for it1.71-0.22-0.16✓converted
4th & 23 · own 19 · Q3 11:277PuntPunt-3.11-1.67–✓punted
4th & 2 · opp 37 · Q3 2:197Field goalGo for it1.64-0.121.18−0.46missed
4th & 11 · own 47 · Q4 12:327PuntPunt-0.81-0.40–✓punted
4th & 2 · opp 30 · Q4 4:277Field goalnot graded2.10-0.112.02missed
4th & 2 · opp 5 · Q2 2:096Field goalGo for it4.24–2.93−1.31good
4th & 5 · opp 29 · Q2 0:156Field goalnot graded1.34–2.11good
4th & 2 · opp 42 · Q3 10:186Go for itGo for it1.32-0.170.38✓converted
4th & 17 · own 29 · Q4 15:006PuntPunt-2.25-1.11–✓punted
4th & 12 · own 37 · Q4 10:256PuntPunt-1.50-0.75–✓punted
4th & 17 · own 31 · Q4 1:076Go for itnot graded-2.12-1.01–stopped
4th & 10 · opp 46 · Q4 0:046Go for itnot graded-0.31-0.24-0.34stopped
4th & 5 · opp 39 · Q1 9:025Field goalField goal (toss-up)0.70-0.140.88✓good
4th & 5 · opp 38 · Q1 7:005Field goalField goal0.76-0.131.03✓good
4th & 1 · opp 25 · Q2 11:445Go for itGo for it3.03–2.40✓converted
4th & 1 · opp 1 · Q2 7:485Go for itGo for it4.12–2.95✓touchdown
4th & 12 · own 36 · Q2 2:525PuntPunt-1.57-0.79–✓punted
4th & 4 · opp 4 · Q3 10:255Field goalField goal2.44–2.94✓good
4th & 8 · opp 22 · Q3 2:175Field goalField goal1.42–2.57✓good
4th & 10 · opp 10 · Q4 11:465Field goalField goal1.30–2.89✓good
4th & 3 · own 42 · Q4 5:135Go for itnot graded-0.04-0.56–converted
4th & 17 · own 39 · Q4 4:175Go for itnot graded-1.60-0.67–stopped
4th & 15 · opp 46 · Q4 2:415Go for itnot graded-0.58-0.24-0.34stopped
4th & 3 · own 36 · Q1 10:504PuntGo for it-0.41-0.79–−0.38punted
4th & 8 · own 24 · Q1 5:314PuntPunt-2.04-1.38–✓punted
4th & 1 · own 37 · Q1 0:274PuntGo for it0.60-0.75–−1.34punted
4th & 1 · own 48 · Q2 10:354Go for itGo for it1.27-0.37–✓converted
4th & 6 · opp 30 · Q2 0:034Field goalnot graded1.12-0.112.02good
4th & 2 · opp 34 · Q3 7:074Field goalGo for it1.84-0.111.58−0.25good
4th & 11 · own 33 · Q3 3:194PuntPunt-1.70-0.92–✓punted
4th & 1 · opp 26 · Q4 5:524Field goalnot graded2.96–2.34good
4th & 1 · opp 19 · Q1 5:253Go for itGo for it3.47–2.69✓converted
4th & 13 · opp 21 · Q1 4:323Field goalField goal1.13–2.61✓good
4th & 16 · opp 40 · Q2 1:083Field goalnot graded-0.24-0.150.71good
4th & 13 · own 25 · Q3 7:573PuntPunt-2.35-1.32–✓punted
4th & 1 · opp 48 · Q3 3:243Go for itGo for it1.52-0.28–✓converted
4th & 8 · opp 19 · Q4 12:473Field goalField goal1.62–2.69✓good
4th & 1 · opp 36 · Q4 0:213Field goalnot graded2.29-0.121.32good
4th & 1 · opp 49 · Q1 2:272Go for itGo for it1.46-0.30–✓converted
4th & 12 · opp 24 · Q2 14:522Field goalField goal0.98–2.46✓good
4th & 17 · opp 31 · Q2 9:502Field goalField goal0.30-0.111.92✓good
4th & 4 · own 48 · Q3 5:482PuntGo for it0.08-0.37–−0.45punted
4th & 1 · opp 25 · Q4 9:072Go for itGo for it3.03–2.40✓converted
4th & 4 · own 49 · Q4 0:342Puntnot graded0.14-0.35–punted
4th & 13 · opp 20 · OT 3:152Field goalnot graded1.19–2.65good
4th & 9 · own 17 · Q1 2:291PuntPunt-2.62-1.80–✓punted
4th & 11 · own 14 · Q2 9:221PuntPunt-2.99-2.00–✓punted
4th & 10 · own 20 · Q2 4:411Puntnot graded-2.49-1.61–punted
4th & 1 · own 27 · Q2 0:591Puntnot graded-0.02-1.21–punted
4th & 6 · opp 39 · Q3 8:001Field goalnot graded0.54-0.140.88good
4th & 7 · own 40 · Q3 1:261Puntnot graded-0.90-0.63–punted
4th & 11 · opp 31 · Q4 3:271Go for itnot graded0.58-0.111.92stopped

Flags against

Ledger →

Bottom lineThe biggest here: Intentional Grounding on IND in Week 9, worth +14 points of win probability to DAL.

How to read this chart
Each row is one flag:
the team in red was penalized, the team in green was helped.
The number on the right
is how much that flag moved the helped team's chance of winning, in points (100 = a whole game). When the play still counted, the play is included, so treat it as an upper bound.
Touchdown erased
marks a score wiped off by the flag, with the expected points it cost.
  1. 1Intentional GroundingIND → helped DAL · Wk 9 Q4 1:03 · (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep right. PENALTY on IND-17-D.Jones, Intentional Grounding, 12 yards, enforced at IND 26.…+14.3 WP
  2. 2Illegal Use of HandsIND → helped DAL · Wk 9 Q4 1:19 · (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams up the middle to IND 11 for 8 yards (30-H.Wohler). PENALTY on IND-90-G.Stewart, Illegal Use of Hands, 5…+10.3 WP
  3. 3Defensive Pass InterferenceIND → helped TEN · Wk 6 Q4 5:26 · 1-C.Ward pass incomplete deep left to 14-C.Tate (29-C.Taylor-Britt). ** Injury Update: IND-25-A.Haulcy has returned to the game.…+10.2 WP
  4. 4Offensive HoldingIND → helped DAL · Wk 9 Q4 6:48 · (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short left [92-Q.Williams]. PENALTY on IND-79-B.Raimann, Offensive Holding, 10 yards,…+9.5 WP
  5. 5Unnecessary RoughnessIND → helped DAL · Wk 9 Q1 1:46 · (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott scrambles right end to IND 33 for 2 yards (53-C.Allen). PENALTY on IND-53-C.Allen, Unnecessary Roughness,…+7.7 WP
FoulFlagsYardsWP given
Offensive Holding1513228.7
Defensive Pass Interference46523.6
Intentional Grounding11214.3
Illegal Use of Hands1510.3
False Start8398.2
Unnecessary Roughness1157.7
Defensive Holding5257.1
Delay of Game5256.4

Flags drawn

  1. 1Defensive Pass InterferenceDAL → helped IND · Wk 9 Q4 10:48 · (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep middle to 80-D.Burks (26-D.Bland). PENALTY on DAL-26-D.Bland, Defensive Pass…+12.1 WP
  2. 2Defensive Pass InterferenceKC → helped IND · Wk 2 Q2 11:18 · 67-L.Tenuta reported in as eligible. 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep left to 13-L.Treadwell [56-G.Karlaftis]. PENALTY on…+9.6 WP
  3. 3Unnecessary RoughnessWAS → helped IND · Wk 4 Q2 5:13 · (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 2-J.Downs to WAS 25 for 5 yards (94-D.Payne). PENALTY on WAS-2-A.Robertson, Unnecessary…+8.4 WP
  4. 4Unnecessary RoughnessDAL → helped IND · Wk 9 Q4 9:59 · (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short middle to 16-A.Dulin. PENALTY on DAL-53-D.Winters, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards,…+8.1 WP
  5. 5Offensive Pass InterferenceDAL → helped IND · Wk 9 Q4 12:34 · (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb ran ob at IND 38 for 13 yards. PENALTY on DAL-88-C.Lamb, Offensive Pass…+7.5 WP

Garbage Time Tax

14.3% of the offense's yards came with the game decided · 28th most of 32

Bottom lineKeenan Allen: 81 of 351 yards (23%) came with the game decided.

How to read this chart
One bar per player,
as long as his season yards (passing, rushing or receiving).
Blue = yards with the game still alive.
Striped amber = garbage time: yards gained when the offense's chance of winning was already under 10% or over 90%, so the game was basically decided.
The percentage
is the garbage-time share of his yards (amber from 30% up).
Daniel JonesIND · passing · 1,722 yds13%
Jonathan TaylorIND · rushing · 652 yds15%
Josh DownsIND · receiving · 354 yds5%
Keenan AllenIND · receiving · 351 yds23%
Tyler WarrenIND · receiving · 275 yds11%

Our picks on the Colts

Receipts →
  1. 1Week 9We gave the Colts 36% at home against cowboys. 27-23 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
  2. 2Week 8We gave the Colts 19% at jaguars. 7-42 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
  3. 3Week 7We gave the Colts 23% at vikings. 10-16 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
  4. 4Week 6We gave the Colts 64% at home against titans. 26-20 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Wrong
  5. 5Week 5We gave the Colts 46% at steelers. 22-34 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
  6. 6Week 4We gave the Colts 41% at commanders. 30-13 final, a win. (rebuilt)Wrong
  7. 7Week 3We gave the Colts 48% at home against texans. 17-19 final, a win. (rebuilt)Wrong
  8. 8Week 2We gave the Colts 16% at chiefs. 30-33 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
Cite thisPigskin Nightly, "Indianapolis Colts verdict, 2026", https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/colts/verdict (2026)CC BY 4.0Data licenseCSVJSONEmbedHow it works

Every number on this page is computed from the 2026 nflverse play-by-play by our own models. Nothing is hand-picked.