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WSH ThuNYG NE SunDET BUF SunNYJ CAR SunNO HOU SunCLE JAX SunTEN KC SunATL MIA SunIND MIN SunGB LAR SunARI SEA SunLV SF SunDAL PIT SunCIN LAC MonBAL
2026 season · after Week 9 · 136 games left

Playoff odds

We play out the rest of the 2026 season 10,000 times, game by game, then run the bracket all the way to the Super Bowl. Each game is priced off how well the two teams have actually played: point differential and EPA, plus the betting line when one is posted. Those 10,000 seasons tell you how often each team gets in, wins its division, grabs the only bye, and lifts the trophy. Think you know better? Pick the games yourself →

10kseasons
simulated
At a glance

After Week 9 of the 2026 season, the San Francisco 49ers are the Super Bowl favorites in the Pigskin Nightly model (22.6%), ahead of the Jacksonville Jaguars (22.3%) and the Buffalo Bills (11.1%), from 10,000 simulations of the 136 remaining games.

Who is favored to win the Super Bowl in 2026?

San Francisco 49ers 22.6%, Jacksonville Jaguars 22.3%, Buffalo Bills 11.1%, Kansas City Chiefs 9.0% and Cincinnati Bengals 6.8%.

Which NFL teams have clinched a playoff spot?

No team has officially clinched yet.

Which teams are on the playoff bubble?

Between 25% and 75% to make it: Minnesota Vikings 75%, Green Bay Packers 71%, New England Patriots 53%, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 51%, Los Angeles Rams 47%, Seattle Seahawks 36%, Houston Texans 28% and Cleveland Browns 28% (plus 1 more).

How are these playoff odds calculated?

Each team gets a strength rating built half from point differential per game and half from net EPA per game, shrunk toward average early in the season. The remaining schedule is played 10,000 times using the betting line where one exists, with simplified tiebreakers (head-to-head, division and conference record) and the 7-team playoff format. Full method at /methodology.

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “NFL playoff odds 2026”, https://pigskinnightly.com/playoffs (updated 2026-11-10).

How we calculatePlain-text versionReport an error

Super Bowl favorite49ers logoSF 23%Next: JAX 22% · BUF 11%
AFC bubble9.6 winsaverage record of the No. 7 seed
NFC bubble10.1 winsaverage record of the No. 7 seed
Since end of Week 8▲ HOU +17 pts▼ NE -20 ptsbiggest move in playoff odds

Who's in

Projected wins · line = the No. 7 seed

AFC

7th seed averages 9.6 wins
IN →Chargers logoDolphins logoTitans logoColts logoJets logoRavens logoRaiders logoTexans logoBrowns logoPatriots logoSteelers logoBroncos logoChiefs logoBengals logoJaguars logoBills logo
2468101214

NFC

7th seed averages 10.1 wins
IN →Eagles logoCardinals logoCommanders logoFalcons logoSaints logoPanthers logoBuccaneers logoCowboys logoSeahawks logoRams logoGiants logoPackers logoVikings logoLions logoBears logo49ers logo
468101214

On the bubbleGiants logoNYG 82%Lions logoDET 76%Vikings logoMIN 75%Packers logoGB 71%Patriots logoNE 53%Buccaneers logoTB 51%Rams logoLAR 47%Seahawks logoSEA 36%Texans logoHOU 28%Browns logoCLE 28%Panthers logoCAR 26%Cowboys logoDAL 20%

The board

Chance to make the playoffs · arrow = change since the end of Week 8

AFC

Div · Bye · SB
  1. 1Jaguars logoJaguars6-2 · South · proj 12.9 W99%▲ 1 ptsDiv 97%Bye 29%SB 22.3%
  2. 2Bills logoBills7-1 · East · proj 13.1 W99%▲ 4 ptsDiv 94%Bye 36%SB 11.1%
  3. 3Bengals logoBengals6-2 · North · proj 12.2 W97%▲ 5 ptsDiv 63%Bye 10%SB 6.8%
  4. 4Chiefs logoChiefs6-2 · West · proj 11.8 W96%▲ 8 ptsDiv 63%Bye 13%SB 9.0%
  5. 5Broncos logoBroncos7-2 · West · proj 11.5 W90%▲ 11 ptsDiv 36%Bye 8%SB 1.6%
  6. 6Steelers logoSteelers6-2 · North · proj 11.2 W87%▲ 3 ptsDiv 33%Bye 4%SB 2.5%
  7. 7Patriots logoPatriots5-4 · East · proj 9.1 W53%▼ 20 ptsDiv 6%Bye <1%SB 0.6%
  8. 8Texans logoTexans3-5 · South · proj 8.3 W28%▲ 17 ptsDiv 3%Bye 0%SB 0.6%
  9. 9Browns logoBrowns5-4 · North · proj 8.5 W28%▼ 6 ptsDiv 3%Bye <1%SB 0.1%
  10. 10Raiders logoRaiders4-5 · West · proj 7.6 W12%▼ 10 ptsDiv 1%Bye <1%SB <0.1%
  11. 11Ravens logoRavens4-5 · North · proj 7.3 W9%▼ 9 ptsDiv <1%Bye 0%SB 0.1%
  12. 12Jets logoJets2-7 · East · proj 5.6 W1%▼ 2 ptsDiv <1%Bye 0%SB 0%
  13. 13Colts logoColts2-7 · South · proj 4.7 W<1%▼ 1 ptsDiv 0%Bye 0%SB 0%
  14. 14Dolphins logoDolphins1-7 · East · proj 3.8 W<1%–Div <1%Bye 0%SB 0%
  15. 15Titans logoTitans1-7 · South · proj 3.8 W<1%–Div <1%Bye 0%SB 0%
  16. 16Chargers logoChargers0-8 · West · proj 2.2 W0%Out every simDiv 0%Bye 0%SB 0%

NFC

Div · Bye · SB
  1. 149ers logo49ers7-1 · West · proj 13.5 W99%▲ 1 ptsDiv 95%Bye 67%SB 22.6%
  2. 2Bears logoBears7-2 · North · proj 11.5 W87%▼ 1 ptsDiv 34%Bye 11%SB 5.4%
  3. 3Giants logoGiants5-2-1 · East · proj 10.2 W82%▲ 4 ptsDiv 80%Bye 3%SB 2.2%
  4. 4Lions logoLions6-2 · North · proj 10.8 W76%▲ 7 ptsDiv 28%Bye 8%SB 2.7%
  5. 5Vikings logoVikings6-2 · North · proj 10.7 W75%▼ 16 ptsDiv 21%Bye 6%SB 2.1%
  6. 6Packers logoPackers6-3 · North · proj 10.6 W71%▲ 13 ptsDiv 17%Bye 3%SB 3.3%
  7. 7Buccaneers logoBuccaneers3-6 · South · proj 7.8 W51%▼ 3 ptsDiv 51%Bye <1%SB 1.7%
  8. 8Rams logoRams5-4 · West · proj 9.5 W47%▲ 1 ptsDiv 3%Bye 1%SB 2.8%
  9. 9Seahawks logoSeahawks5-4 · West · proj 9.3 W36%▲ 3 ptsDiv 3%Bye 1%SB 1.3%
  10. 10Panthers logoPanthers3-5 · South · proj 7.2 W26%▼ 5 ptsDiv 25%Bye 0%SB 0.4%
  11. 11Cowboys logoCowboys4-5 · East · proj 8.0 W20%▲ 3 ptsDiv 16%Bye <1%SB 0.5%
  12. 12Saints logoSaints3-5 · South · proj 6.5 W14%▲ 8 ptsDiv 14%Bye 0%SB 0.1%
  13. 13Falcons logoFalcons3-6 · South · proj 6.3 W11%▼ 5 ptsDiv 10%Bye 0%SB 0.1%
  14. 14Commanders logoCommanders2-5-1 · East · proj 6.3 W5%▼ 7 ptsDiv 4%Bye 0%SB <0.1%
  15. 15Cardinals logoCardinals3-6 · West · proj 6.0 W<1%▼ 2 ptsDiv <1%Bye 0%SB 0%
  16. 16Eagles logoEagles2-7 · East · proj 4.1 W<1%▼ 1 ptsDiv <1%Bye 0%SB 0%

Title odds

Reach and win the Super Bowl
149ers logo49ers7-1 · reach SB 42%22.6%2Jaguars logoJaguars6-2 · reach SB 36%22.3%3Bills logoBills7-1 · reach SB 21%11.1%4Chiefs logoChiefs6-2 · reach SB 17%9.0%5Bengals logoBengals6-2 · reach SB 13%6.8%6Bears logoBears7-2 · reach SB 13%5.4%7Packers logoPackers6-3 · reach SB 8%3.3%8Rams logoRams5-4 · reach SB 6%2.8%

Seed by seed

Share of simulations ending at each seed

AFC

Team1234567Out
Jaguars logoJAX29292218<1111
Bills logoBUF362219172221
Bengals logoCIN10172016171253
Chiefs logoKC13141819181154
Broncos logoDEN889102718910
Steelers logoPIT48101122201113
Patriots logoNE<11139162347
Texans logoHOU<112271572
Browns logoCLE<1<112271572
Raiders logoLV<1<1<1113788
Ravens logoBAL<1<112591
Jets logoNYJ<1<1<1199
Colts logoIND<1<1<1>99
Dolphins logoMIA<1<1>99
Titans logoTEN<1<1>99
Chargers logoLAC100

NFC

Team1234567Out
49ers logoSF67244<12111
Bears logoCHI11212<123181213
Giants logoNYG395711<1<1118
Lions logoDET8182<118161424
Vikings logoMIN6132<120181625
Packers logoGB312218181729
Buccaneers logoTB<1<11041<1<1<149
Rams logoLAR11<1<113151653
Seahawks logoSEA121<16111664
Panthers logoCAR<1620<1<1174
Cowboys logoDAL<1<197<11380
Saints logoNO<1212<1<186
Falcons logoATL<128<1<1<189
Commanders logoWSH<122<1<1<195
Cardinals logoARI<1<1<1<1>99
Eagles logoPHI<1<1<1>99

Seeds 1-4: division winners5-7: wild cardsNumbers are percentages; No. 1 is the only bye

Pick the games

Choose winners · the odds re-run in your browser

These are model probabilities given your picks, not official clinching scenarios. Every game you leave open is still simulated with the same model as the board above; tiebreakers are the simplified ones described in How it works. Read more on how playoff odds work.

0 picks · model baseline
Week 10 · 14 games · tap a team to pick it, tap again to clear
Thu 8:15 PM ETat NYG · line
Sun 9:30 AM ETNeutral site · line
Sun 1:00 PM ETat NYJ · line
Sun 1:00 PM ETat NO · line
Sun 1:00 PM ETat CLE · line
Sun 1:00 PM ETat TEN · line
Sun 1:00 PM ETat ATL · line
Sun 1:00 PM ETat IND · line
Sun 1:00 PM ETat GB · line
Sun 4:05 PM ETat ARI · line
Sun 4:05 PM ETat LV · line
Sun 4:25 PM ETat DAL · line
Sun 8:20 PM ETat CIN · line
Mon 8:15 PM ETat BAL · line
Model baseline · pick games to see the change
  1. JAX6-299%·97%·29%·
  2. BUF7-199%·94%·36%·
  3. CIN6-297%·63%·10%·
  4. KC6-296%·63%·13%·
  5. DEN7-290%·36%·8%·
  6. PIT6-287%·33%·4%·
  7. NE5-453%·6%·<1%·
  8. HOU3-528%·3%·0%·
  9. CLE5-428%·3%·<1%·
  10. LV4-512%·1%·<1%·
  11. BAL4-59%·<1%·0%·
  12. NYJ2-71%·<1%·0%·
  13. IND2-7<1%·0%·0%·
  14. MIA1-7<1%·<1%·0%·
  15. TEN1-7<1%·<1%·0%·
  16. LAC0-80%·0%·0%·

1 · bye2-4 · division5-7 · wild cardoutDeltas in points vs the model with no picks

Simulated in your browser: 2,000 seasons right away, refined to 10,000. Both your scenario and the baseline use the same random seasons, so a change comes from your picks, not from noise. With no picks the numbers match the board above. Picking a game fixes its winner; ties are not simulated.

How it works

Team strength. Each team gets a rating in points above or below an average team on a neutral field: half its point differential per game, half its net EPA per game (expected points added by the offense minus expected points allowed by the defense, passes and runs only, nflverse play-by-play). The rating is pulled toward average by games played, multiplied by g / (g + 3), so a hot start over four games counts for less than the same numbers over twelve.

Each game. When a betting line is posted (14 of the 136 remaining games right now) we use it as the expected margin. Otherwise the expected margin is the rating gap plus 1.5 points for the home team (none at neutral sites). The margin becomes a win probability through a normal curve with a standard deviation of 13.5 points, the typical spread of NFL results around the line. Ties are not simulated.

Uncertainty. At the start of each simulated season every team's true strength is nudged by a random amount (standard deviation 2.5 points) and keeps it for the rest of that season. That is what lets a team ride a hot streak or fall apart, instead of every game being an independent coin flip.

Playoff format. Seven teams per conference: the four division winners take seeds 1-4 by record, the three best non-winners take 5-7. Only the No. 1 seed gets a bye; Wild Card Weekend is 2 v 7, 3 v 6, 4 v 5, then the top remaining seed faces the lowest. The higher seed hosts and gets the 1.5-point edge; the Super Bowl is neutral. Playoff games use the ratings, not lines.

Simplified tiebreakers. Ties in win percentage are broken by head-to-head record among the tied teams within that simulation, then division record (if all tied teams share a division) or conference record, then conference record, then a coin flip. The NFL's full list (common games, strength of victory, strength of schedule, points) is not modeled, so odds for teams that finish dead level can differ a little from the real procedure. "Clinched" and "Eliminated" are the official NFL statuses. "In every sim" and "Out every sim" mean all 10,000 simulations agreed: a strong signal, but not mathematical certainty, because the simulations use simplified tiebreakers and cannot cover every possible outcome.

Week-over-week change. The arrows compare today's odds with a rerun of the same model using only results through Week 8, with Week 9 priced off its closing lines. Simulations use a fixed random seed, so the page only moves when results or lines change. Updated Nov 10, 7:46 AM ET.