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Pittsburgh SteelersAsked and Answered: Nov. 10New York GiantsGiants Now: Michael Strahan offers high praise of Arvell ReesePhiladelphia EaglesAAA Official Review: What did the Eagles, Joe Milton learn from the QB's first start?Buffalo Bills'There's no panic' | The Bills stay strong through early struggles and injuries in MNF win over the Minnesota VikingsESPNVikings left at QB crossroads after Carson Wentz's poor MNF showing vs. BillsBroncos DeskBroncos are 7-2, but the snaps say 4.1 wins and the 11th seed in the conference5 h agoInjuryByron Murphy Jr.: Active → Cleared5 h agoMinnesota VikingsVikings Defense Limits Bills Below AveragesMinnesota VikingsO'Connell: Vikings Have to 'Improve Offensively at Rapid Pace'InjuryBlake Cashman: Active → Cleared6 h agoVikings DeskVikings go 0-for-8 on third down and never get a receiver open in a 23-6 loss to Bills6 h agoInjuryWill Reichard: Active → Cleared6 h agoBills DeskJosh Allen's picks and sacks didn't matter: Bills force three turnovers in Minneapolis6 h agoPro Football RumorsSeahawks Interested In Adding WR DepthInjuryGreg Dortch: Active → Cleared6 h agoESPNJosh Allen and the Bills move to 7-1 with a 23-6 win over the sputtering VikingsBuffalo BillsBills 23 , Vikings 6 | Final Score, recap + highlightsMinnesota VikingsVikings vs. Bills Game Observations: Offense's Misfires & Turnovers Add UpInjuryCarl Granderson: Active → Cleared7 h agoESPNJosh Allen, Bills outlast Vikings 23-6 on MNFESPNJosh Allen leads Bills to win over tough Vikings' defenseESPNCarson Beck next man up for Cardinals
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The Verdict2026 season · through Week 9

Our Receipts

Every pick our model made before kickoff against what happened, and against the closing line. Calibration, Brier score, week by week. No hiding.

136 games · 32 teamsDownload CSVThis week's issueMethod
Record73-4761% of graded games picked right
Our Brier score0.240lower is better · a coin flip scores 0.250
Closing line0.215the market beats us so far (81-39)
Locked picks1frozen at kickoff since Week 10; earlier weeks rebuilt from data known at the time

Calibration

When we say 70%, does it happen 70% of the time?

Bottom lineOur biggest group: 51 games where we gave the favorite about 55%; the favorite won 67% of them.

How to read this chart
Each dot is a group of picks
with similar confidence; the number inside is how many games it holds.
Left to right: how sure we were
that the favorite would win. Bottom to top: how often the favorite really won.
The dashed diagonal is perfect:
70% picks winning 70% of the time. Above it, we were too timid; below it, too sure.

Week by week

Picks right

Bottom lineBest week so far: Week 9, 12-3.

How to read this chart
One bar per week:
its height is how many of our pregame picks were right; the record (right-wrong) sits on top.
Hover a bar
for that week's Brier score: 0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip.
6-10Wk 2
9-7Wk 3
12-4Wk 4
10-5Wk 5
7-7Wk 6
8-6Wk 7
9-5Wk 8
12-3Wk 9

Every pick

Latest first
How to read this chart
Our pick:
the team our model favored and how sure it was. Closing line: the betting market's favorite at kickoff, turned into a probability, for comparison.
Source:
Locked = frozen in our database before kickoff; Rebuilt = recomputed afterwards with only the data known before that week.
GameWkOur pickClosing lineFinalResultSource
jaguars @ ravens9jaguars 75%jaguars 74%33-10RightRebuilt
bengals @ falcons9bengals 70%bengals 59%34-17RightRebuilt
browns @ saints9saints 51%saints 63%22-23RightRebuilt
cowboys @ colts9cowboys 64%cowboys 63%27-23RightRebuilt
broncos @ panthers9panthers 51%broncos 59%26-21WrongRebuilt
lions @ dolphins9lions 68%lions 69%19-9RightRebuilt
rams @ commanders9rams 65%rams 63%20-13RightRebuilt
giants @ eagles9giants 69%giants 59%19-11RightRebuilt
jets @ chiefs9chiefs 70%chiefs 76%12-35RightRebuilt
texans @ chargers9texans 69%texans 66%44-22RightRebuilt
raiders @ 49ers949ers 79%49ers 74%17-38RightRebuilt
cardinals @ seahawks9seahawks 73%seahawks 74%3-17RightRebuilt
packers @ patriots9patriots 55%patriots 59%45-27WrongRebuilt
buccaneers @ bears9bears 61%bears 69%24-27RightRebuilt
bills @ vikings9vikings 51%bills 60%23-6WrongLocked
panthers @ packers8packers 56%packers 60%19-27RightRebuilt
cardinals @ cowboys8cowboys 71%cowboys 70%33-30WrongRebuilt
falcons @ buccaneers8buccaneers 59%buccaneers 57%0-16RightRebuilt
ravens @ bills8bills 57%bills 59%10-36RightRebuilt
browns @ steelers8steelers 59%steelers 60%6-27RightRebuilt
colts @ jaguars8jaguars 81%jaguars 77%7-42RightRebuilt
raiders @ jets8jets 59%jets 54%38-33WrongRebuilt
vikings @ lions8vikings 56%lions 59%15-19WrongRebuilt
titans @ bengals8bengals 83%bengals 84%36-43RightRebuilt
chargers @ rams8rams 81%rams 69%9-24RightRebuilt
chiefs @ broncos8chiefs 61%broncos 54%24-28WrongRebuilt
patriots @ dolphins8patriots 69%patriots 70%24-19RightRebuilt
eagles @ commanders8commanders 64%commanders 67%10-27RightRebuilt
bears @ seahawks8seahawks 57%seahawks 59%34-17WrongRebuilt
patriots @ bears7bears 56%bears 59%24-30RightRebuilt
steelers @ saints7steelers 62%steelers 59%16-10RightRebuilt
bengals @ ravens7ravens 58%bengals 59%35-13WrongRebuilt
browns @ titans7browns 58%browns 54%27-24RightRebuilt
colts @ vikings7vikings 77%vikings 69%10-16RightRebuilt
dolphins @ jets7jets 75%jets 60%28-25WrongRebuilt
giants @ texans7texans 61%texans 77%27-21WrongRebuilt
49ers @ falcons749ers 74%49ers 57%20-29WrongRebuilt
buccaneers @ panthers7panthers 71%panthers 59%43-13WrongRebuilt
broncos @ cardinals7broncos 56%broncos 63%30-16RightRebuilt
packers @ lions7lions 55%lions 60%17-20RightRebuilt
rams @ raiders7rams 51%rams 60%35-21RightRebuilt
chiefs @ seahawks7chiefs 63%seahawks 59%3-20WrongRebuilt
cowboys @ eagles7cowboys 57%cowboys 63%38-21RightRebuilt
seahawks @ broncos6seahawks 59%seahawks 57%14-17WrongRebuilt
texans @ jaguars6jaguars 69%jaguars 57%34-31WrongRebuilt
ravens @ browns6ravens 66%ravens 59%10-13WrongRebuilt
panthers @ eagles6panthers 67%panthers 59%25-14RightRebuilt
bears @ falcons6bears 50%bears 54%31-23RightRebuilt
saints @ giants6giants 66%saints 54%34-27WrongRebuilt
jets @ patriots6patriots 59%patriots 71%19-26RightRebuilt
steelers @ buccaneers6buccaneers 52%steelers 57%26-19WrongRebuilt
titans @ colts6colts 64%colts 69%26-20WrongRebuilt
cardinals @ rams6rams 77%rams 82%18-16WrongRebuilt
bills @ raiders6bills 52%bills 66%33-30RightRebuilt
chargers @ chiefs6chiefs 85%chiefs 71%6-22RightRebuilt
cowboys @ packers6packers 57%cowboys 54%13-23RightRebuilt
commanders @ 49ers649ers 84%49ers 71%17-23RightRebuilt
buccaneers @ cowboys5cowboys 64%cowboys 76%24-16WrongRebuilt
eagles @ jaguars5jaguars 81%jaguars 71%17-19RightRebuilt
bengals @ dolphins5bengals 74%bengals 70%31-24RightRebuilt
browns @ jets5jets 58%jets 57%12-17RightRebuilt
texans @ titans5texans 50%texans 69%26-3RightRebuilt
colts @ steelers5steelers 54%steelers 59%22-34RightRebuilt
raiders @ patriots5raiders 63%patriots 60%17-45WrongRebuilt
vikings @ saints5vikings 70%vikings 57%23-13RightRebuilt
giants @ commanders5giants 54%commanders 60%27-27TieRebuilt
bears @ packers5bears 76%bears 54%7-31WrongRebuilt
broncos @ chargers5broncos 53%broncos 60%23-17RightRebuilt
lions @ cardinals5lions 52%lions 66%45-21RightRebuilt
49ers @ seahawks549ers 56%seahawks 59%32-29RightRebuilt
ravens @ falcons5ravens 57%falcons 60%30-23RightRebuilt
bills @ rams5rams 55%rams 60%37-34WrongRebuilt
steelers @ browns4browns 56%steelers 57%24-27RightRebuilt
colts @ commanders4commanders 59%colts 63%30-13WrongRebuilt
cardinals @ giants4giants 53%cardinals 57%24-36RightRebuilt
cowboys @ texans4cowboys 55%texans 59%34-30RightRebuilt
packers @ buccaneers4buccaneers 62%packers 59%17-14WrongRebuilt
jaguars @ bengals4jaguars 57%bengals 57%22-17RightRebuilt
rams @ eagles4rams 58%rams 60%24-20RightRebuilt
patriots @ bills4bills 73%bills 70%29-26WrongRebuilt
jets @ bears4bears 67%bears 60%12-23RightRebuilt
titans @ ravens4ravens 73%ravens 80%18-24RightRebuilt
dolphins @ vikings4vikings 84%vikings 77%10-15RightRebuilt
broncos @ 49ers449ers 83%49ers 59%14-24RightRebuilt
chiefs @ raiders4chiefs 52%chiefs 63%30-27RightRebuilt
chargers @ seahawks4seahawks 82%seahawks 70%23-30RightRebuilt
lions @ panthers4panthers 61%lions 63%26-32RightRebuilt
falcons @ saints4saints 60%saints 54%45-24WrongRebuilt
falcons @ packers3packers 68%packers 63%35-14WrongRebuilt
panthers @ browns3panthers 66%panthers 57%18-21WrongRebuilt
bengals @ steelers3bengals 67%bengals 60%27-30WrongRebuilt
texans @ colts3texans 52%texans 54%17-19WrongRebuilt
chiefs @ dolphins3chiefs 79%chiefs 77%24-10RightRebuilt
chargers @ bills3bills 79%bills 70%16-24RightRebuilt
jets @ lions3jets 60%lions 70%24-31WrongRebuilt
seahawks @ commanders3seahawks 71%seahawks 74%31-33WrongRebuilt
titans @ giants3giants 52%giants 57%7-12RightRebuilt
patriots @ jaguars3jaguars 57%jaguars 59%6-35RightRebuilt
cardinals @ 49ers349ers 81%49ers 71%30-36RightRebuilt
vikings @ buccaneers3vikings 65%vikings 54%23-16RightRebuilt
ravens @ cowboys3ravens 61%ravens 59%34-31RightRebuilt
raiders @ saints3raiders 57%saints 60%35-27RightRebuilt
rams @ broncos3rams 59%broncos 54%26-30WrongRebuilt
eagles @ bears3bears 61%eagles 60%7-27RightRebuilt
lions @ bills2bills 57%bills 66%31-41RightRebuilt
panthers @ falcons2falcons 66%panthers 57%34-3WrongRebuilt
bengals @ texans2bengals 56%texans 59%20-6RightRebuilt
browns @ buccaneers2buccaneers 67%buccaneers 74%23-19WrongRebuilt
packers @ jets2jets 74%packers 60%20-17WrongRebuilt
vikings @ bears2bears 59%bears 63%9-3WrongRebuilt
saints @ ravens2ravens 73%ravens 74%24-17WrongRebuilt
eagles @ titans2eagles 57%eagles 70%24-20RightRebuilt
steelers @ patriots2steelers 53%patriots 63%3-20WrongRebuilt
jaguars @ broncos2jaguars 79%broncos 57%13-20WrongRebuilt
raiders @ chargers2raiders 66%chargers 69%26-14RightRebuilt
dolphins @ 49ers249ers 78%49ers 82%13-35RightRebuilt
seahawks @ cardinals2cardinals 62%seahawks 60%31-7WrongRebuilt
commanders @ cowboys2commanders 53%cowboys 60%20-37WrongRebuilt
colts @ chiefs2chiefs 84%chiefs 67%30-33RightRebuilt
giants @ rams2giants 69%rams 69%6-28WrongRebuilt

How it works

Our pick is the team-strength model behind our playoff odds: half point differential, half net EPA, pulled toward average by games played, plus home field, turned into a win probability. It does not look at the betting line, so it can be compared against it. From Week 10 every pick is frozen in our database before kickoff and never changed. Weeks 2-9 are rebuilt with the same model using only the results known before each week; Week 1 had no data and is not graded.

Brier score is the average squared gap between the probability and what happened (1 for a home win, 0 for a loss): 0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip. The closing line is the final point spread (nflverse) turned into a probability with the same curve. We publish this page because a model that never shows its misses should not be trusted.

The full Verdict method →

Cite thisPigskin Nightly, "Our Receipts, 2026", https://pigskinnightly.com/verdict/receipts (2026)CC BY 4.0Data licenseCSVJSONEmbedHow it works