Raiders 17, 49ers 38: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8 · Levi's StadiumFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
LV	0	10	7	0	17
SF	14	7	14	3	38

Home · 7-1San Francisco49ers38

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 9:31 PM ET

The San Francisco 49ers beat the Las Vegas Raiders 38-17 on Sun, Nov 8 at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, CA (Week 9, 2026 season). Records after the game: Raiders 4-5, 49ers 7-1. B.Purdy (SF) led all players with +13.0 EPA on 30 dropbacks.

Who won Raiders vs 49ers?

The San Francisco 49ers won 38-17. By quarter: LV 0-10-7-0, SF 14-7-14-3.

Who was the best player in Raiders vs 49ers?

By expected points added: B.Purdy (SF, +13.0 EPA on 30 dropbacks), J.Watkins (SF, +7.3 EPA on 4 targets) and B.Bowers (LV, +4.0 EPA on 8 targets).

What was the turning point of Raiders vs 49ers?

The biggest swing in win probability (5 points toward the 49ers) came in Q3 at 14:43: Jaden Dugger 35 Yd Interception Return (Eddy Pineiro Kick)

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Raiders 17, 49ers 38: Week 9 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-11-08-lv-at-sf (updated 2026-11-11).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 9 issue →

Week 9EarnedGame file →

Raiders40% success · −0.14 EPA/play

1738

49ers50% success · +0.19 EPA/play

LV <1% deserveddeserved >99% SF

49ers earned it: the snaps said 49ers by 15.9, a deserved win probability of more than 99%.

Deserved marginSF by 15.9

Real marginSF by 21

Luck pts LV−2.7

Luck pts SF+1.5

The swingQ1 13:26 · SF · +9 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 85-G.Kittle to LV 41 for 4 yards (31-T.Stukes).

Flags that moved this game

1Intentional GroundingSF → helped LV · Wk 9 Q1 6:10 · (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short left. PENALTY on SF-13-B.Purdy, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 31.…+3.4 WP
2Defensive OffsideLV → helped SF · Wk 9 Q1 14:54 · 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short left to 23-C.McCaffrey. PENALTY on LV-7-Q.Walker, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at SF 31…+2.1 WP

Fourth downs our model disagreed with

1LV · 4th & 3Klint Kubiak chose Punt at own 44, Wk 9 Q1 8:29, down 7. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.58 EP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA126 plays, one strand0 lead changes · 10 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewScott Novak12 accepted flags in this game · 18.2 a game this season (one of the busiest crews)Market vs SnapsLine: SF by 8.5 · Snaps: SF by 15.949ers covered; the snaps agree

17@38

Week 9Changes the winner

If the Raiders had stopped that fourth-and-2

Raiders after the play40%what really happened

Q1 13:26 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 85-G.Kittle to LV 41 for 4 yards (31-T.Stukes).

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

SF ▲LV ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+5%Q3 14:43 · for SFJaden Dugger 35 Yd Interception Return (Eddy Pineiro Kick)
+5%Q3 8:01 · for LV(Shotgun) B.Purdy pass deep right intended for G.Kittle INTERCEPTED by T.Stukes at LV 43. T.Stukes to SF 31 for 26 yards (C.Colby).
+4%Q1 13:26 · for SF(Shotgun) B.Purdy pass short left to G.Kittle to LV 41 for 4 yards (T.Stukes).
+3%Q3 7:40 · for SF(Shotgun) K.Cousins pass short left to B.Bowers to SF 26 for 5 yards (F.Warner; R.Green). FUMBLES (F.Warner), touched at SF 26, RECOVERED by SF-D.Greenlaw at SF 31.The Replay Official reviewed the ball was inbounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
+3%Q3 4:19 · for SF(Shotgun) K.Cousins pass deep middle to M.Mayer to SF 1 for 24 yards (U.Stout; J.Brown). FUMBLES (U.Stout), RECOVERED by SF-F.Warner at SF -2. Touchback.

Every drive, on the field

SF attacks →← LV attacks

Q1 15:00TD12p · 69y · 5:28
Q1 9:32PUNT3p · 7y · 1:11
Q1 8:21TD13p · 89y · 6:29
Q1 1:52TD8p · 62y · 4:11
Q2 12:41TD12p · 84y · 7:26
Q2 5:15FG7p · 11y · 4:03
Q2 1:12HALF1p · -13y · 1:12
Q3 15:00INT1p · 0y · 0:17
Q3 14:43TD9p · 69y · 5:14
Q3 9:29INT3p · 14y · 1:43
Q3 7:46FUM2p · 5y · 0:15
Q3 7:31DOWNS4p · 9y · 2:01
Q3 5:30FUM3p · 39y · 1:19
Q3 4:11TD7p · 80y · 3:35
Q3 0:36INT8p · 57y · 3:41
Q4 11:55FG12p · 63y · 6:34
Q4 5:21INT7p · 9y · 1:31
Q4 3:50END6p · 8y · 3:50

Raiders9 drives4scoring drives (3 TD)44%drives ending in pointsOWN 42avg starting field position1three-and-outs5turnovers incl. downs

49ers7 drives5scoring drives (4 TD)71%drives ending in pointsOWN 22avg starting field position0three-and-outs2turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
9:32TouchdownC.McCaffrey left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Weeks, Holder-C.Waitman.0–7
Q1
1:52TouchdownB.Purdy scrambles right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Weeks, Holder-C.Waitman.0–14
Q2
12:41TouchdownK.Cousins up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-A.Ward, Holder-A.Cole.7–14
Q2
5:15Touchdown(Shotgun) B.Purdy pass short left to C.McCaffrey for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Weeks, Holder-C.Waitman.7–21
Q2
1:12Field goalM.Gay 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-A.Ward, Holder-A.Cole.10–21
Q3
14:43Fumble Recovery (Own)Jaden Dugger 35 Yd Interception Return (Eddy Pineiro Kick)10–28
Q3
9:29Touchdown(Shotgun) K.Cousins pass deep middle to B.Bowers for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-A.Ward, Holder-A.Cole.17–28
Q3
0:36Touchdown(Shotgun) B.Purdy pass deep middle to J.Watkins for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Weeks, Holder-C.Waitman.17–35
Q4
5:21Field goalE.Pineiro 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-J.Weeks, Holder-C.Waitman.17–38

Team stats

LVvsSF

240Total yards414

216Passing yards224

24Rushing yards190

5.1Yards per play6.0

14First downs27

6-9 · 67%Third down8-13 · 62%

0-1Fourth down2-3

1-2Red zone TDs3-4

22/32Comp / att17/25

1.6Yards per carry4.4

5Turnovers1

0Sacks allowed1 (−8 yds)

5 for 29Penalties7 for 59

21:42Possession38:18

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play-0.353+0.194

Dropback EPA-0.402+0.432

Rush EPA-0.248-0.004

Success rate40%50%

Explosive plays49

Plays4766

Who moved the needle

B.PurdyDropbacks: 30+13.0

J.WatkinsTargets: 4+7.3

B.BowersTargets: 8+4.0

C.McCaffreyTargets: 3+3.6

K.BlackCarries: 11+1.8

C.McCaffreyCarries: 18+1.1

Cost their side the most

K.CousinsDropbacks: 32-12.9

T.TuckerTargets: 8-9.2

A.JeantyTargets: 7-3.9

Box score

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Kirk CousinsQB	22/32	216	6.8	1	3	0-0	59.5	58.9

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Ashton JeantyRB	6	25	4.2	0	9
Brock BowersTE	1	2	2.0	0	2
Kirk CousinsQB	2	0	0.0	1	2
Mike Washington Jr.RB	6	-3	-0.5	0	4

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Brock BowersTE	7	8	111	15.9	1	33
Tre TuckerWR	4	8	55	13.8	0	18
Michael MayerTE	3	3	37	12.3	0	24
Jack BechWR	1	2	9	9.0	0	9
Jalen NailorWR	2	4	9	4.5	0	6
Ashton JeantyRB	5	7	-5	-1.0	0	3

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Nakobe DeanLB	18	7	0	1	0	0
Quay WalkerLB	11	3	0	0	0	0
Jeremy ChinnS	10	6	0	0	0	0
Tommy EichenbergLB	7	3	0	0	0	0
Treydan StukesS	5	3	0	0	1	0
Eric StokesCB	4	2	0	0	0	0
Tim Keenan IIIDT	4	1	0	0	0	0
Maxx CrosbyDE	4	2	1	1	0	2
Hezekiah MassesCB	3	0	0	0	0	0
Dareke YoungWR	2	1	0	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Matt GayPK	1/1	100.0	50	2/2	5

San Francisco 49ers

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Brock PurdyQB	17/25	232	9.3	2	1	1-8	94.2	107.4

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Kaelon BlackRB	11	70	6.4	0	18
Christian McCaffreyRB	18	68	3.8	1	11
Brock PurdyQB	7	40	5.7	1	18
Jordan JamesRB	3	11	3.7	0	6
Kyle JuszczykFB	1	4	4.0	0	4
Mac JonesQB	3	-3	-1.0	0	-1

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Jordan WatkinsWR	4	4	86	21.5	1	37
George KittleTE	4	7	58	14.5	0	37
Brandin CooksWR	2	2	25	12.5	0	13
Demarcus RobinsonWR	3	4	22	7.3	0	11
Christian McCaffreyRB	2	3	19	9.5	1	12
KhaDarel HodgeWR	1	1	17	17.0	0	17
Jacob CowingWR	1	1	5	5.0	0	5
Kaelon BlackRB	0	1	0	0.0	0	0
Luke FarrellTE	0	1	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Dre GreenlawLB	8	5	3	0	0
Jaden DuggerLB	6	6	0	1	0
Fred WarnerLB	5	3	1	0	0
Upton StoutCB	4	0	0	1	0
Renardo GreenCB	4	2	0	1	0
Osa OdighizuwaDT	3	2	2	0	2
Luke GiffordLB	3	0	0	0	0
Marques SigleS	3	2	0	0	0
Ji'Ayir BrownS	3	2	0	0	0
Deommodore LenoirCB	3	3	1	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Eddy PineiroPK	1/1	100.0	35	5/5	8

Before kickoff · Regular season through week 8 · rank out of 32

Where it was expected to be decided

149ers big-play offense vs Raiders defense against big plays
The 49ers' big-play offense ranks 2nd in explosive-play rate (12.5%, 401 plays) against a Raiders defense against big plays ranked 31st (11.4% allowed, 492 plays faced).
2ndSF offense29 spots apart31stLV defense
249ers dropback offense vs Raiders pass defense
The 49ers' dropback offense ranks 2nd in EPA per dropback (+0.29, 232 dropbacks) against a Raiders pass defense ranked 27th (+0.16 allowed, 286 dropbacks faced).
2ndSF offense25 spots apart27thLV defense
349ers run defense vs Raiders run game
The 49ers' run defense ranks 2nd in EPA per rush (-0.17 allowed, 166 rushes faced) and faces a Raiders run game ranked 29th (-0.21, 191 rushes).
29thLV offense27 spots apart2ndSF defense

When the Raiders have the ballEdge SF · +27 ranks

LV dropback offenseEPA per dropbackSF pass defense

7th+0.16311 dropbacks

LV +8

+0.04 allowed268 dropbacks faced15th

LV run gameEPA per rushSF run defense

29th-0.21191 rushes

SF +27

-0.17 allowed166 rushes faced2nd

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the 49ers have the ballEdge SF · +25 ranks

SF dropback offenseEPA per dropbackLV pass defense

2nd+0.29232 dropbacks

SF +25

+0.16 allowed286 dropbacks faced27th

SF run gameEPA per rushLV run defense

4th+0.02169 rushes

SF +20

-0.03 allowed206 rushes faced24th

Third downEdge SF · +23 ranks

LV third-down offensethird-down conversion rateSF third-down defense

9th43.6%101 third downs

38.3% allowed94 third downs faced11th

SF third-down offensethird-down conversion rateLV third-down defense

2nd50.0%76 third downs

SF +23

44.1% allowed93 third downs faced25th

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneEdge SF · +27 ranks

LV red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateSF red-zone defense

25th51%35 trips

SF +18

48% allowed23 trips faced7th

SF red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateLV red-zone defense

1st87%23 trips

SF +27

71% allowed34 trips faced28th

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsEdge SF · +29 ranks

LV big-play offenseexplosive-play rateSF defense against big plays

26th7.8%502 plays

SF +25

4.4% allowed434 plays faced1st

SF big-play offenseexplosive-play rateLV defense against big plays

2nd12.5%401 plays

SF +29

11.4% allowed492 plays faced31st

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksEdge LV · +16 ranks

LV pass protectionsack rateSF pass rush

4th3.5% sacked311 dropbacks

LV +16

5.6% of dropbacks268 dropbacks faced20th

SF pass protectionsack rateLV pass rush

1st3.0% sacked232 dropbacks

SF +14

6.3% of dropbacks286 dropbacks faced15th

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversEdge LV · +19 ranks

LV ball securityturnovers per gameSF takeaway defense

8th0.8 giveaways a game8 games

LV +19

0.9 takeaways a game7 games27th

SF ball securityturnovers per gameLV takeaway defense

15th1.1 giveaways a game7 games

LV +11

1.6 takeaways a game8 games4th

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

Sample: LV 8 games, 502 offensive and 492 defensive plays · SF 7 games, 401 offensive and 434 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

Fernando MendozaQB→ Kirk Cousins

Connor HeywardFB→ Mike Washington Jr.

Mike EvansWR→ Jordan Watkins

Deebo Samuel Sr.WR→ Demarcus Robinson

Keenan AllenWR→ Brandin Cooks

Jaden DuggerSLB→ Romello Height

AwayRaiders1 questionable · 2 changes