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Cleveland BrownsEnter for a chance to win tickets to Browns vs. Falcons by Take a Minute, Make a Plan, Never Drive ImpairedTexans DeskTexans earned 44-22 win over Chargers, and the snaps say it was no fluke22 min agoPanthers DeskPanthers outplayed Denver and lost 26-21 on a late strip sack32 min agoNew Orleans SaintsFive things to know about the New Orleans Saints for Tuesday, November 10Lions DeskLions earned 19-9 in Miami, with a defense doing the work and a thin offense42 min agoBrowns DeskBrowns' 33% success rate earned a 23-22 overtime loss to the Saints52 min agoCincinnati BengalsHow To Watch Steelers vs Bengals on Sunday Night Football: TV, Streaming and Radio InformationBills DeskBills earned a 23-6 win in Minnesota despite a 40 percent success rate53 min agoNew Orleans SaintsMorning Break: Saints turn attention to NFC South matchup with first place at stakeAtlanta FalconsKevin Stefanski says 'all of us have to step up' after Jessie Bates tradeESPNWill Daniel Jones become a Minnesota Vikings player today?InjuryAlec Anderson: Out → Questionable1 h agoInjuryDion Dawkins: Out → Questionable1 h agoNew York JetsHow Will the Jets Approach the NFL's Trade Deadline?New York JetsMore Amazing Facts from David Bailey's Performance in Kansas CityPro Football RumorsVikings Expected To Explore QB TradeESPNFantasy buzz: James Cook III helps Bills overcome tough Vikings defenseDetroit LionsTWENTYMAN: 5 stats that stand out following Lions' Week 9 victoryESPNSeven things Solak thinks for NFL Week 10: Jaguars trades, All-Pro picks, morePittsburgh SteelersAsked and Answered: Nov. 10ESPNCommanders running low on time to 'put it all together'Broncos DeskBroncos are 7-2, but the snaps say 4.1 wins and the 11th seed in the conference8 h ago
WSH ThuNYG NE SunDET BUF SunNYJ CAR SunNO HOU SunCLE JAX SunTEN KC SunATL MIA SunIND MIN SunGB LAR SunARI SEA SunLV SF SunDAL PIT SunCIN LAC MonBAL
The LabEvery outdoor game since 2000, with the real weather

Weather Ledger

The weather in most football data is whatever someone typed at kickoff. We measured it: for 5,153 outdoor games since 2000, the readings of the nearest of 57 NOAA weather stations, averaged over the hours of play. Wind is the real scoring killer: games over 20 mph average 37.9 points against 45.4 in calm air. And the betting market still under-rates rain: 60% of rain games go under the closing total, 68% in heavy rain, while snow games go over more often than not.

5,153 games2000 to todayJSON
This week's sky

The forecast, with a memory

Hourly forecast at the stadium for the three hours of play (Open-Meteo), and what happened in past games played within 7°F and 4 mph of it. Context, not picks.

Bottom line0 of 8 games this week have rain or snow in the forecast, 0 have wind of 15 mph or more. History, not predictions.

How to read this chart
One card = one outdoor game this week,
with the forecast at the stadium during the game: temperature, "feels like", wind and gusts, chance of rain or snow.
The bottom half
looks back at every game since 2000 played in similar weather (within 7°F and 4 mph): how many points they averaged and how often they finished under the total. The total is the combined score the betting market expects.
Thu 8:15 PM ET · MetLife StadiumWSH@NYG50°feels 44°wind 11 mph · gusts 17rain 58%In 603 games like this since 200042.8 points a game54% went underThis week's total: 42.5Sun 9:30 AM ET · FC Bayern Munich StadiumNE@DET43°feels 39°wind 3 mph · gusts 8rain 0%In 464 games like this since 200045 points a game50% went underThis week's total: 51.5Sun 1:00 PM ET · MetLife StadiumBUF@NYJ48°feels 40°wind 10 mph · gusts 13rain 0%In 600 games like this since 200042.7 points a game54% went underThis week's total: 50.5Sun 1:00 PM ET · Lambeau FieldMIN@GB43°feels 36°wind 7 mph · gusts 8rain 4%In 587 games like this since 200043.5 points a game53% went underThis week's total: 41.5Sun 1:00 PM ET · Nissan StadiumJAX@TEN51°feels 45°wind 4 mph · gusts 6rain 3%In 684 games like this since 200044 points a game51% went underThis week's total: 46.5Sun 1:00 PM ET · Huntington Bank FieldHOU@CLE45°feels 37°wind 12 mph · gusts 15rain 8%In 451 games like this since 200041.7 points a game54% went underThis week's total: 39.5Sun 8:20 PM ET · Paycor StadiumPIT@CIN39°feels 33°wind 3 mph · gusts 6rain 2%In 402 games like this since 200045.2 points a game52% went underThis week's total: 48.5Mon 8:15 PM ET · M&T Bank StadiumLAC@BAL43°feels 36°wind 6 mph · gusts 16rain 3%In 587 games like this since 200043.5 points a game52% went underThis week's total: 38.5
The thermometer

Cold alone is not the story

Points a game and the share that went under the closing total, by temperature at kickoff hours
20°F or colder40.4pts · line 41.456%went under · 92 gameshome teams 61%
21 to 32°F45pts · line 42.742%went under · 282 gameshome teams 62%
33 to 45°F43.4pts · line 42.954%went under · 792 gameshome teams 56%
46 to 60°F43.6pts · line 43.352%went under · 1,454 gameshome teams 57%
61 to 75°F43.6pts · line 43.351%went under · 1,530 gameshome teams 55%
76 to 85°F43.4pts · line 4351%went under · 755 gameshome teams 55%
Above 85°F43.1pts · line 42.249%went under · 248 gameshome teams 50%

Bottom line20°F or colder: 40.4 points a game; 61 to 75°F: 43.6. Cold barely moves scoring, but home teams win 61% of the frigid games.

How to read this chart
One column = one temperature range
during the game, from the coldest (left) to the hottest (right). The thermometer only shows the order.
Big number
is the average combined points scored. "line" is the average closing total, the score the betting market expected right before kickoff.
The ring
is how often those games finished under the closing total. Blue ring = clearly more unders (55%+), orange = clearly more overs (45% or less), white = about even. Bottom line: how often the home team won.

Freezing games score about as much as mild ones, and the market prices them about right: the 21 to 32°F band even went over 58% of the time. What does change in the cold is who wins: home teams take 61% of games at 20°F or below, against 55% in mild weather.

The wind tunnel

Every 5 mph takes points off the board

Sustained wind at the stadium, averaged over the game

Bottom lineCalm air: 45.4 points a game. Over 20 mph: 37.9. The pass rate drops from 58% to 54%.

How to read this chart
One windsock = one wind range,
the average sustained wind during the game, from calm (left) to 20+ mph (right).
Big number
is average combined points; "line" is the average closing total the market expected.
The ring
is how often those games went under the total (blue = more unders). Next to it: the share of plays that were passes, and the number of games.
0 to 5 mph45.4pts a game · line 43.747%went under
pass rate 58%
1,247 games
6 to 10 mph43.9pts a game · line 43.250%went under
pass rate 58%
2,143 games
11 to 15 mph42.1pts a game · line 42.756%went under
pass rate 57%
1,280 games
16 to 20 mph41.9pts a game · line 42.553%went under
pass rate 56%
352 games
Over 20 mph37.9pts a game · line 40.260%went under
pass rate 54%
131 games
What falls from the sky

Rain sinks the total, snow does not

Measured precipitation during the game: rain, heavy rain (a quarter inch or more), snow and fog
Dry44points a game vs a line of 43.250%under · 2.9 turnovers · 4367 games
Rain40.2points a game vs a line of 42.360%under · 3 turnovers · 617 games
Heavy rain (0.25 in+)36points a game vs a line of 42.368%under · 3 turnovers · 63 games
Snow43.3points a game vs a line of 41.345%under · 3 turnovers · 140 games
Fog41.6points a game vs a line of 42.756%under · 3 turnovers · 427 games

Bottom lineRain games went under the closing total 60% of the time (68% in heavy rain); snow games went under only 45%. A description of the past, not betting advice.

How to read this chart
One card = one kind of weather
measured during the game: dry, rain, heavy rain (a quarter inch or more), snow, fog.
Big number
is average combined points against the average closing total. The percentage is how often the game went under that total: blue = clearly more unders, orange = clearly more overs.
The rows below
combine conditions (for example wind and rain together): expected total → points actually scored, and how often it went under.
Freezing and windy (32°F or less, 15+ mph)line 39.3 → scored 38.553% under61 games
Snow and wind (15+ mph)line 39.9 → scored 3963% under32 games
Rain and wind (15+ mph)line 41.6 → scored 37.964% under82 games
Perfect day (60 to 80°F, under 8 mph, dry)line 43.7 → scored 4547% under846 games
Fish out of water

Dome teams in the cold

Teams with a dome or closed roof at home, on the road at 40°F or colder, regular season

Bottom lineDome teams win 41% of cold road games against 46% when it is warm. Warm-weather open-air teams: 37% in the cold against 42%.

How to read this chart
Top numbers
are the combined record of teams with a dome or closed roof at home, when they play on the road at 40°F or colder, and their points a game, against their warm road trips.
Each logo
is one dome team with its own record in those cold road games.
63-89record (41% wins) · 46% in road games above 55°F20.4points a game · 21.5 when it is warm
1-84-94-78-1212-179-109-105-55-54-32-1
Warm-weather teams with an open stadium do no better: 52-90 in the cold (37%), 42% on warm road trips.
Cold kings

Who owns the freezer

Home record at 32°F or colder, playoffs included, 6+ games

Bottom linePatriots lead at 29-9 at home in freezing games.

How to read this chart
One row = one team at home
in games at 32°F or colder (playoffs included, at least 6 games).
The bar
is the home win rate in those games (full bar = won them all); the number is the record.
Patriots29-9
Packers49-19
Bills21-9
Bengals10-5
Eagles15-8
Chiefs21-12
Steelers25-15
Bears19-14
Broncos15-11
Titans4-4
Quarterbacks in the freezer

Who warms up, who freezes

Team EPA per play with him starting, at 32°F or colder against above 50°F, since 2000. 8+ freezing starts.

Bottom lineAaron Rodgers gains the most in the cold (+4); Brett Favre loses the most (−8).

How to read this chart
One row = one quarterback
with at least 8 starts at 32°F or colder; under his name, the number of freezing starts and the team's record in them.
The number
compares his team's offense in freezing games with games above 50°F, in EPA per 100 plays. EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play helps the offense score: +5 means about 5 more points per 100 plays in the cold.
Left column
played better in the cold; right column, worse. It reflects the whole offense, not only the quarterback.
Better in the cold
Aaron Rodgers51 freezing starts · 38-13+4EPA/100 plays vs warm
Joe Flacco10 freezing starts · 5-5+3EPA/100 plays vs warm
Mark Sanchez10 freezing starts · 4-6+2EPA/100 plays vs warm
Josh Allen21 freezing starts · 16-5+1EPA/100 plays vs warm
Joe Burrow9 freezing starts · 6-3+1EPA/100 plays vs warm
Worse in the cold
Brett Favre30 freezing starts · 17-13−8EPA/100 plays vs warm
Kyle Orton9 freezing starts · 7-2−8EPA/100 plays vs warm
Ryan Fitzpatrick8 freezing starts · 4-4−7EPA/100 plays vs warm
Alex Smith11 freezing starts · 6-5−7EPA/100 plays vs warm
Russell Wilson8 freezing starts · 2-6−4EPA/100 plays vs warm
Peyton Manning11 freezing starts · 5-6−4EPA/100 plays vs warm
The extremes

The games the weather won

Measured at the nearest station during play

Bottom lineColdest: -22° feels-like, MIA at KC (2024). Windiest: 38 mph, LV at CLE (2020).

How to read this chart
Three lists
of the most extreme weather games since 2000: coldest by "feels like" temperature, windiest by sustained wind, biggest snow.
Each ticket
shows the reading, the final score (visitors first, at the home team) and the date.
Coldest (feels like)
-22° feelsMIA 7atKC 26Jan 13, 2024 · playoffs · -3° air, 12 mph
-20° feelsNYG 23atGB 20Jan 20, 2008 · playoffs · -3° air, 11 mph
-19° feelsSEA 10atMIN 9Jan 10, 2016 · playoffs · -3° air, 10 mph
-14° feelsNO 17atCLE 10Dec 24, 2022 · 8° air, 27 mph
-11° feelsSF 23atGB 20Jan 5, 2014 · playoffs · 4° air, 11 mph
-9° feelsDAL 28atCHI 45Dec 9, 2013 · 6° air, 11 mph
-9° feelsBUF 35atCHI 13Dec 24, 2022 · 12° air, 25 mph
-7° feelsNE 17atBUF 47Jan 15, 2022 · playoffs · 5° air, 8 mph
Windiest
38 mphLV 16atCLE 6Nov 1, 2020
36 mphBUF 0atCLE 8Dec 16, 2007
34 mphHOU 7atCLE 10Nov 15, 2020
34 mphNE 13atBUF 0Dec 28, 2008
33 mphTEN 14atCLE 20Nov 6, 2005
33 mphPIT 10atCLE 6Sep 14, 2008
Biggest snow
28°F · snowDET 20atPHI 34Dec 8, 2013
34°F · snowTEN 0atNE 59Oct 18, 2009
33°F · snowARI 7atNE 47Dec 21, 2008
33°F · snowSF 6atCHI 26Dec 4, 2016
31°F · snowGB 31atNYG 13Dec 1, 2019
25°F · snowDEN 3atKC 23Dec 15, 2019
MethodHow this is built
Where the weather comes from
NOAA's Global Historical Climatology Network hourly data (GHCNh). For each outdoor or open-roof game we take the nearest airport-grade station within 60 km of the stadium (usually under 15 km) and average its readings from kickoff to three and a half hours later: temperature, feels-like, sustained wind, gusts, precipitation, and the rain, snow and fog codes.
What is left out
Domes and closed retractable roofs. 1999, which lacks reliable kickoff times. Precipitation is liquid-equivalent: an inch of snow counts as roughly a tenth of an inch.
The betting line
The closing total from nflverse. A game "went under" when the combined score finished below it; pushes are left out. This is a description of the past, not a betting system: markets adapt.
Quarterbacks
The team's EPA per play in games he started, so the defense he faced and his supporting cast are part of it. Read it as how his offense handles the cold, not as a pure individual rating.
This week
Forecasts from Open-Meteo at the stadium coordinates, refreshed hourly; games in similar conditions are within 7°F and 4 mph, and wet if rain is forecast.