Pigskin Nightly
More
GamedayScores & liveEvery game, live field, drive chartVideoHighlights for every gameStartersProjected, last game, confirmedInjury reportWho is out this weekTravel & restMiles, time zones, short weeks
AnalyticsThe VerdictWho deserved to win, graded weeklyEPA mapEvery offense and defenseWith / WithoutTeam splits when a starter sitsMilestone WatchCareer marks within reachCompare playersSide by side, every numberDFS researchDefense vs position, usage, totalsFree widgetsLive scores and stats for your siteGlossaryWhat every number means
The LabAll Lab toolsOriginal tools, built from every snapDeserved StandingsThe table the snaps would have builtSliding DoorsThe play that could have flipped itClock IQEvery staff against the clockRef Crew ReportEvery officiating crew, in numbersMarket vs SnapsWhere the line and the tape disagreeScheme DNAEvery playbook's fingerprintGame DNAEvery game drawn as one strandPaid vs PlayedEvery contract against the fieldLoudest StadiumsCrowd noise, measured since 1999Turf vs GrassInjuries by playing surfaceWeather LedgerReal weather, every game since 2000Line MovementOpening vs closing, every game since 2023
ClubsStandingsDivisions and playoff seedsPlayoff odds10,000 simulated seasonsStrength of scheduleThe road left for all 32All 32 teamsHubs, depth charts, snapsRostersEvery player, every teamNewsroomThe 32 club desksHow we writeOur editorial standards
Week 10
Latest
Pittsburgh SteelersAsked and Answered: Nov. 10New York GiantsGiants Now: Michael Strahan offers high praise of Arvell ReesePhiladelphia EaglesAAA Official Review: What did the Eagles, Joe Milton learn from the QB's first start?Buffalo Bills'There's no panic' | The Bills stay strong through early struggles and injuries in MNF win over the Minnesota VikingsESPNVikings left at QB crossroads after Carson Wentz's poor MNF showing vs. BillsBroncos DeskBroncos are 7-2, but the snaps say 4.1 wins and the 11th seed in the conference5 h agoInjuryByron Murphy Jr.: Active → Cleared5 h agoMinnesota VikingsVikings Defense Limits Bills Below AveragesMinnesota VikingsO'Connell: Vikings Have to 'Improve Offensively at Rapid Pace'InjuryBlake Cashman: Active → Cleared6 h agoVikings DeskVikings go 0-for-8 on third down and never get a receiver open in a 23-6 loss to Bills6 h agoInjuryWill Reichard: Active → Cleared6 h agoBills DeskJosh Allen's picks and sacks didn't matter: Bills force three turnovers in Minneapolis6 h agoPro Football RumorsSeahawks Interested In Adding WR DepthInjuryGreg Dortch: Active → Cleared6 h agoESPNJosh Allen and the Bills move to 7-1 with a 23-6 win over the sputtering VikingsBuffalo BillsBills 23 , Vikings 6 | Final Score, recap + highlightsMinnesota VikingsVikings vs. Bills Game Observations: Offense's Misfires & Turnovers Add UpInjuryCarl Granderson: Active → Cleared7 h agoESPNJosh Allen, Bills outlast Vikings 23-6 on MNFESPNJosh Allen leads Bills to win over tough Vikings' defenseESPNCarson Beck next man up for Cardinals
WSH ThuNYG NE SunDET BUF SunNYJ CAR SunNO HOU SunCLE JAX SunTEN KC SunATL MIA SunIND MIN SunGB LAR SunARI SEA SunLV SF SunDAL PIT SunCIN LAC MonBAL
The Verdict2026 season · through Week 9

Coach on Trial

Every fourth down against our expected-points model: go, punt or kick. The Chicken Index, the points left on the table, the calls that were right.

136 games · 32 teamsDownload CSVThis week's issueMethod
Graded fourth downs1,296of 1,943; late-game and lopsided ones are listed but not graded
League went for it49%of the 333 times the model said go
Chicken of the yearSeahawks logoSEA 91%Mike Macdonald: kicked 10 of 11 go calls (min. 8)
BravestBills logoBUF 22%Joe Brady: went on 7 of 9 go calls

The Chicken Index

Share of go calls the coach kicked away

Bottom lineLeague-wide, coaches went for it on 162 of 333 go calls (49%).

How to read this chart
Go calls:
fourth downs where the model said going for it beat kicking (clearly or slightly). Went: how many the coach actually went for.
Chicken:
the share of those go calls the coach answered with a punt or a field goal. Higher = more timid.
EP lost:
expected points given up on all graded calls against the model's best choice; Per game divides it by games played.
CoachGradedGo callsWentChickenEP lostPer game
Jaguars logoLiam Coen2640100%5.20.65
Seahawks logoMike Macdonald4711191%6.70.74
Chargers logoJim Harbaugh428188%5.80.72
Broncos logoSean Payton4614379%9.51.06
Bengals logoZac Taylor258275%4.80.60
Buccaneers logoTodd Bowles5010370%4.30.48
Commanders logoDan Quinn4712467%6.90.86
Texans logoDeMeco Ryans4214564%9.11.14
Browns logoTodd Monken508363%4.20.47
Vikings logoKevin O'Connell5413562%5.60.70
Titans logoRobert Saleh3410460%5.50.69
Cardinals logoMike LaFleur4714657%7.90.88
Falcons logoKevin Stefanski377357%6.20.69
Saints logoKellen Moore389456%4.00.50
Jets logoAaron Glenn4811555%5.50.61
Rams logoSean McVay4413654%8.30.92
Colts logoShane Steichen4617947%6.50.72
49ers logoKyle Shanahan2311646%4.20.53
Steelers logoMike McCarthy409544%2.80.35
Giants logoJohn Harbaugh439544%5.90.74
Eagles logoNick Sirianni5312742%3.10.34
Cowboys logoBrian Schottenheimer3510640%3.60.40
Patriots logoMike Vrabel3711736%3.90.43
Bears logoBen Johnson4114936%3.20.36
Packers logoMatt LaFleur42151033%4.60.51
Chiefs logoAndy Reid3212833%4.40.55
Ravens logoJesse Minter419633%3.00.33
Raiders logoKlint Kubiak357529%3.30.37
Dolphins logoJeff Hafley378625%1.70.21
Bills logoJoe Brady389722%1.40.17
Panthers logoDave Canales389722%2.80.35
Lions logoDan Campbell385420%2.30.29

The decision chart

What our model says, early in a close game

Bottom lineOn 4th and 1 the model says go from as far back as their own 5; on 4th and 4, from their own 30 onward.

How to read this chart
Rows = where the ball is,
from your own half at the top to the opponent's goal line at the bottom. Columns = yards to go for a first down, 1 to 10+.
The color is the best call
by expected points (what a possession is worth on average from that spot): green go for it, blue punt, gold field goal. Darker = the best call wins by more, so it is clearer.
The number in each cell
is the chance to convert, in percent.
It shows a normal moment,
early in a close game. Late in games the clock and the score change the math, and those calls are not graded.
Yards to go →Best call · darker = clearer
12345678910+Own 571605348444138363433Own 1071605348444138363433Own 1571605348444138363433Own 2071605348444138363433Own 2571605348444138363433Own 3071605348444138363433Own 3571605348444138363433Own 4071605348444138363433Own 45716053484441383634335071605348444138363433Opp 4571605348444138363433Opp 4071605348444138363433Opp 3571605348444138363433Opp 3071605348444138363433Opp 2571605348444138363433Opp 2071605348444138363433Opp 1571605348444138363433Opp 1071605348444138363420Opp 57160534830
Go for itPuntField goalNumber = chance to convert

The costliest calls

Season · expected points thrown away

Bottom lineThe calls against the model in this list cost 21.5 expected points in total.

How to read this chart
Each row is one fourth down:
distance, spot, score, what the coach chose and what our model would have done (a clear call, a lean or a toss-up).
The number on the right
is what the choice cost in expected points (EP, what a possession is worth on average from that spot): −1.00 means about a point thrown away. ✓ = the coach made the model's call.
The result
is what happened next; the grade judges the decision, not the outcome.
  1. 1HOU · 4th & 1DeMeco Ryans chose Field goal at opp 7, Wk 6 Q2 4:18, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: good.−2.03 EP
  2. 2LA · 4th & 1Sean McVay chose Punt at own 44, Wk 6 Q1 13:44, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.52 EP
  3. 3TEN · 4th & 1Robert Saleh chose Punt at own 43, Wk 6 Q2 8:49, down 7. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.49 EP
  4. 4CAR · 4th & 1Dave Canales chose Punt at own 42, Wk 6 Q1 1:48, up 3. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.46 EP
  5. 5ARI · 4th & 1Mike LaFleur chose Punt at own 40, Wk 1 Q4 14:04, up 2. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.41 EP
  6. 6NYJ · 4th & 1Aaron Glenn chose Punt at own 40, Wk 3 Q1 12:54, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.41 EP
  7. 7NYJ · 4th & 1Aaron Glenn chose Punt at own 40, Wk 5 Q4 10:45, up 4. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.41 EP
  8. 8GB · 4th & 2Matt LaFleur chose Punt at opp 44, Wk 4 Q1 10:27, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.40 EP
  9. 9DAL · 4th & 1Brian Schottenheimer chose Punt at own 39, Wk 9 Q4 7:50, up 3. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.38 EP
  10. 10SF · 4th & 1Kyle Shanahan chose Punt at own 38, Wk 5 Q1 14:04, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.36 EP
  11. 11BAL · 4th & 1Jesse Minter chose Punt at own 37, Wk 2 Q4 8:14, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.34 EP
  12. 12IND · 4th & 1Shane Steichen chose Punt at own 37, Wk 4 Q1 0:27, down 6. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.34 EP
  13. 13HOU · 4th & 1DeMeco Ryans chose Field goal at opp 40, Wk 2 Q3 7:33, down 7. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: missed.−1.31 EP
  14. 14IND · 4th & 2Shane Steichen chose Field goal at opp 5, Wk 6 Q2 2:09, up 7. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: good.−1.31 EP
  15. 15NYG · 4th & 13John Harbaugh chose Punt at opp 37, Wk 7 Q3 10:13, tied. Model: Field goal (clear call). Result: punted.−1.30 EP

Brave and right

Went for it when the numbers said so, clearest first
  1. 1MIA · 4th & 1Jeff Hafley chose Go for it at opp 2, Wk 7 Q1 1:46, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
  2. 2BAL · 4th & 1Jesse Minter chose Go for it at opp 5, Wk 4 Q1 12:13, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: touchdown.✓ EP
  3. 3GB · 4th & 1Matt LaFleur chose Go for it at opp 7, Wk 3 Q3 10:02, down 10. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: stopped.✓ EP
  4. 4LV · 4th & 1Klint Kubiak chose Go for it at opp 46, Wk 8 Q2 3:58, down 6. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: stopped.✓ EP
  5. 5SEA · 4th & 1Mike Macdonald chose Go for it at opp 45, Wk 1 Q4 11:38, down 7. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: touchdown.✓ EP
  6. 6IND · 4th & 1Shane Steichen chose Go for it at opp 45, Wk 7 Q2 4:46, up 1. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
  7. 7KC · 4th & 1Andy Reid chose Go for it at opp 48, Wk 2 Q3 12:01, down 3. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
  8. 8IND · 4th & 1Shane Steichen chose Go for it at opp 48, Wk 3 Q3 3:24, up 6. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP

How it works

The model. Built only from this season's play-by-play. Conversion chance comes from a logistic fit on every third and fourth down pass or run by yards to go (goal-to-go lowers it). Success is valued at the expected points of a first down 6.3 yards past the marker (the average overshoot), or a touchdown; failure hands the opponent the ball at the spot. A punt is valued at where opponents really start after punts from that spot; a field goal at its make probability by distance times 3, with a miss giving the ball back at the spot of the kick. Expected points of a first down come from nflverse's EP model, smoothed by field position.

Grading. Only decisions with the game in doubt are graded: offense win probability between 10% and 90%, outside the last five minutes of the fourth quarter, the last two minutes of the first half and overtime, where the clock and the score change the math. A call is clear when the best option beats the next one by 0.75 expected points or more, a lean from 0.25, otherwise a toss-up. The Chicken Index is the share of clear or leaning go calls the coach answered with a punt or a kick. The model knows nothing about injuries, weather or the specific offense, so read single calls with that in mind; over a season the pattern is the story.

The full Verdict method →

Cite thisPigskin Nightly, "Coach on Trial, 2026", https://pigskinnightly.com/verdict/fourth-down (2026)CC BY 4.0Data licenseCSVJSONEmbedHow it works