Panthers 19, Packers 27: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 8 · Thu, Oct 29 · Lambeau FieldFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
CAR	3	7	3	6	19
GB	6	14	7	0	27

Home · 6-3Green BayPackers27

At a glanceUpdated Nov 11, 2026, 12:02 AM ET

The Green Bay Packers beat the Carolina Panthers 27-19 on Thu, Oct 29 at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, WI (Week 8, 2026 season). Records after the game: Panthers 3-5, Packers 6-3. T.Kraft (GB) led all players with +7.3 EPA on 6 targets.

Who won Panthers vs Packers?

The Green Bay Packers won 27-19. By quarter: CAR 3-7-3-6, GB 6-14-7-0.

Who was the best player in Panthers vs Packers?

By expected points added: T.Kraft (GB, +7.3 EPA on 6 targets), J.Love (GB, +6.9 EPA on 41 dropbacks) and C.Hubbard (CAR, +2.2 EPA on 8 targets).

What was the turning point of Panthers vs Packers?

The biggest swing in win probability (9 points toward the Packers) came in Q2 at 5:23: (Shotgun) B.Young pass short left intended for J.Coker INTERCEPTED by T.Hopper at CAR 44. T.Hopper to CAR 43 for 1 yard (J.Coker).

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Panthers 19, Packers 27: Week 8 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-10-29-car-at-gb (updated 2026-11-11).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 8 issue →

Week 8EarnedGame file →

Panthers34% success · −0.19 EPA/play

1927

Packers48% success · +0.05 EPA/play

CAR 1% deserveddeserved 99% GB

Packers earned it: the snaps said Packers by 13.7, a deserved win probability of 99%.

Deserved marginGB by 13.7

Real marginGB by 8

Luck pts CAR−1.1

Luck pts GB+0.8

The swingQ2 9:19 · GB · +13 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 9-C.Watson to CAR 26 for 53 yards (24-W.Lee). GB-9-C.Watson was injured during the play. CAR-24-W.Lee was injured during the play. Penalty on CAR-24-W.Lee, Defensive Pass…

Flags that moved this game

1Defensive Pass InterferenceCAR → helped GB · Wk 8 Q1 8:14 · (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep middle to 0-M.Golden. PENALTY on CAR-24-W.Lee, Defensive Pass Interference, 17 yards,…+11.4 WP
2Intentional GroundingGB → helped CAR · Wk 8 Q4 4:50 · (Shotgun) 73-J.Williams to GB 22 for -5 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by GB-10-J.Love at GB 21. 10-J.Love pass incomplete short…+4.8 WP

Fourth downs our model disagreed with

1GB · 4th & 3Matt LaFleur chose Punt at own 40, Wk 8 Q1 10:22, down 3. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.47 EP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA156 plays, one strand3 lead changes · 6 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewScott Novak11 accepted flags in this game · 18.2 a game this season (one of the busiest crews)Market vs SnapsLine: GB by 3.5 · Snaps: GB by 13.7Packers covered; the snaps agree

19@27

Week 8

If the Panthers had recovered that fumble

Panthers after the play11%what really happened

Q4 4:50 73-J.Williams to GB 22 for -5 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by GB-10-J.Love at GB 21. 10-J.Love pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on GB-10-J.Love, Intentional Grounding, 15 yards, enforced at GB 27.

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

GB ▲CAR ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+9%Q2 5:23 · for GB(Shotgun) B.Young pass short left intended for J.Coker INTERCEPTED by T.Hopper at CAR 44. T.Hopper to CAR 43 for 1 yard (J.Coker).
+9%Q2 1:46 · for GB(Shotgun) J.Love pass deep left to M.Golden for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. T.Smack extra point is GOOD, Center-M.Orzech, Holder-D.Whelan.
+9%Q2 9:19 · for GB(Shotgun) J.Love pass deep middle to C.Watson to CAR 26 for 53 yards (W.Lee). GB-C.Watson was injured during the play. CAR-W.Lee was injured during the play. Penalty on CAR-W.Lee, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
+8%Q1 7:02 · for GB(No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Love pass short left to C.Watson to CAR 14 for 24 yards (Z.Wheatley).
+8%Q2 12:32 · for CAR(Shotgun) J.Love pass short left to C.Watson to CAR 42 for 8 yards (N.Scott). FUMBLES (N.Scott), touched at CAR 40, RECOVERED by CAR-B.Okereke at CAR 37.

Every drive, on the field

GB attacks →← CAR attacks

Q1 15:00FUM0p · 0y · 0:05
Q1 14:55FG6p · 8y · 3:12
Q1 11:43PUNT3p · 7y · 1:30
Q1 10:13PUNT3p · 4y · 1:32
Q1 8:41TD8p · 56y · 3:33
Q1 5:08TD13p · 65y · 5:11
Q2 14:57FUM5p · 28y · 2:33
Q2 12:24PUNT3p · 1y · 1:04
Q2 11:20TD9p · 90y · 4:47
Q2 6:33INT3p · 7y · 1:23
Q2 5:18TD8p · 43y · 3:32
Q2 1:46PUNT3p · -5y · 0:31
Q2 1:15PUNT4p · 14y · 0:43
Q2 0:32HALF3p · 7y · 0:32
Q3 15:00DOWNS6p · 25y · 2:42
Q3 12:18TD8p · 50y · 4:48
Q3 7:30FG8p · 37y · 3:23
Q3 4:07INT10p · 41y · 4:39
Q4 14:28PUNT5p · 14y · 2:16
Q4 12:12PUNT3p · 8y · 1:32
Q4 10:40TD12p · 70y · 5:03
Q4 5:37PUNT3p · -15y · 1:02
Q4 4:35DOWNS4p · 5y · 1:54
Q4 2:41PUNT6p · 13y · 2:19
Q4 0:22FUM3p · 5y · 0:22

Panthers12 drives4scoring drives (2 TD)33%drives ending in pointsOWN 33avg starting field position3three-and-outs4turnovers incl. downs

Packers12 drives4scoring drives (4 TD)33%drives ending in pointsOWN 32avg starting field position3three-and-outs3turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
11:43Field goal R.Fitzgerald 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-J.Jansen, Holder-S.Martin.3–0
Q1
5:08Touchdown(Shotgun) J.Love pass short middle to T.Kraft for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. T.Smack extra point is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-M.Orzech, Holder-D.Whelan.3–6
Q2
14:57TouchdownS.Forsythe reported in as eligible. C.Hubbard right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. R.Fitzgerald extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Jansen, Holder-S.Martin.10–6
Q2
6:33Touchdown(Shotgun) J.Jacobs right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. T.Smack extra point is GOOD, Center-M.Orzech, Holder-D.Whelan.10–13
Q2
1:46Touchdown(Shotgun) J.Love pass deep left to M.Golden for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. T.Smack extra point is GOOD, Center-M.Orzech, Holder-D.Whelan.10–20
Q3
7:30Touchdown(Shotgun) J.Love pass short middle to J.Jacobs for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. T.Smack extra point is GOOD, Center-M.Orzech, Holder-D.Whelan.10–27
Q3
4:07Field goalR.Fitzgerald 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-J.Jansen, Holder-S.Martin.13–27
Q4
5:37TouchdownJalen Coker 26 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)19–27

Team stats

CARvsGB

258Total yards354

176Passing yards288

82Rushing yards66

3.7Yards per play5.3

14First downs21

5-18 · 28%Third down9-16 · 56%

2-4Fourth down0-0

1-2Red zone TDs3-3

23/41Comp / att30/41

3.6Yards per carry2.5

2Turnovers3

6 (−33 yds)Sacks allowed0

5 for 41Penalties6 for 45

28:57Possession31:03

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play-0.149+0.053

Dropback EPA-0.161+0.169

Rush EPA-0.123-0.131

Success rate34%48%

Explosive plays24

Plays7067

Who moved the needle

T.KraftTargets: 6+7.3

J.LoveDropbacks: 41+6.9

C.HubbardTargets: 8+2.2

C.WatsonTargets: 10+1.4

M.GoldenTargets: 13+0.1

J.CokerTargets: 5-0.1

Cost their side the most

B.YoungDropbacks: 47-7.6

J.JacobsCarries: 21-3.2

C.HubbardCarries: 22-2.1

Box score

Carolina Panthers

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Bryce YoungQB	23/41	209	5.1	1	1	6-33	36.0	68.0

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Chuba HubbardRB	22	81	3.7	1	18
Trevor EtienneRB	1	1	1.0	0	1

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Tetairoa McMillanWR	6	11	58	9.7	0	14
Chuba HubbardRB	7	8	38	5.4	0	11
Jalen CokerWR	2	5	36	18.0	1	26
Mitchell EvansTE	2	2	22	11.0	0	17
Tommy TrembleTE	1	3	19	19.0	0	19
John Metchie IIIWR	3	3	14	4.7	0	6
Darren WallerTE	1	2	11	11.0	0	11
Brycen TremayneWR	1	1	11	11.0	0	11

Defense	TOT	SOLO	TFL	PD
Marco WilsonCB	8	6	0	2
Zakee WheatleyS	7	4	0	1
Devin LloydLB	7	3	0	0
Tre'von MoehrigS	5	4	0	0
Nick ScottS	5	3	0	1
Bobby OkerekeLB	5	3	0	0
Will Lee IIICB	4	4	0	0
Tershawn WhartonDT	4	0	0	0
Patrick Jones IILB	3	3	1	0
Chau Smith-WadeCB	3	2	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Ryan FitzgeraldPK	2/2	100.0	50	1/1	7

Green Bay Packers

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Jordan LoveQB	30/41	288	7.0	3	1	0-0	79.8	106.6

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Josh JacobsRB	21	39	1.9	1	6
Savion WilliamsWR	1	18	18.0	0	18
MarShawn LloydRB	3	7	2.3	0	5
Pierre Strong Jr.RB	1	2	2.0	0	2

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Christian WatsonWR	8	10	113	14.1	0	53
Matthew GoldenWR	7	13	79	11.3	1	24
Tucker KraftTE	6	6	53	8.8	1	14
J. Michael SturdivantWR	1	1	16	16.0	0	16
Josh JacobsRB	6	6	13	2.2	1	5
MarShawn LloydRB	1	1	9	9.0	0	9
Savion WilliamsWR	1	2	5	5.0	0	5

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Evan WilliamsS	10	7	0	0	0	0
Isaiah McDuffieLB	10	3	0	0	0	0
Ty'Ron HopperLB	8	6	1	0	3	2
Lukas Van NessDE	6	3	1	1	1	1
Chris McClellanDT	6	2	0	0	0	0
Barryn SorrellDE	4	4	1	1	0	1
Javon BullardS	4	2	0	0	0	0
Dani Dennis-SuttonDE	3	2	1	2	1	1
Xavier McKinneyS	3	2	0	0	1	0
Brenton Cox Jr.DE	2	2	1	1	0	2

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Trey SmackPK	0/0	0.0	0	3/4	3

Before kickoff · Regular season through week 7 · rank out of 32

Where it was expected to be decided

1Packers pass protection vs Panthers pass rush
The Packers' pass protection ranks 9th in sack rate (4.9% sacked, 287 dropbacks) against a Panthers pass rush ranked 23rd (4.8% of dropbacks, 228 dropbacks faced).
9thGB offense14 spots apart23rdCAR defense
2Panthers third-down offense vs Packers third-down defense
The Panthers' third-down offense ranks 15th in third-down conversion rate (41.0%, 78 third downs) against a Packers third-down defense ranked 27th (46.7% allowed, 92 third downs faced).
15thCAR offense12 spots apart27thGB defense
3Packers takeaway defense vs Panthers ball security
The Packers' takeaway defense ranks 1st in turnovers per game (1.9 takeaways a game, 7 games) and faces a Panthers ball security ranked 15th (1.0 giveaways a game, 6 games).
15thCAR offense14 spots apart1stGB defenseSmall sample, read with care Why sample size matters

When the Panthers have the ballEdge GB · +9 ranks

CAR dropback offenseEPA per dropbackGB pass defense

14th+0.11258 dropbacks

GB +9

-0.03 allowed278 dropbacks faced5th

CAR run gameEPA per rushGB run defense

11th-0.03134 rushes

-0.09 allowed182 rushes faced13th

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Packers have the ballNo big edge

GB dropback offenseEPA per dropbackCAR pass defense

12th+0.12287 dropbacks

+0.04 allowed228 dropbacks faced14th

GB run gameEPA per rushCAR run defense

32nd-0.27136 rushes

+0.01 allowed158 rushes faced30th

Third downEdge CAR · +12 ranks

CAR third-down offensethird-down conversion rateGB third-down defense

15th41.0%78 third downs

CAR +12

46.7% allowed92 third downs faced27th

GB third-down offensethird-down conversion rateCAR third-down defense

28th35.6%90 third downs

44.4% allowed81 third downs faced23rd

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneEdge CAR · +11 ranks

CAR red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateGB red-zone defense

7th68%22 trips

CAR +11

61% allowed28 trips faced18th

GB red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateCAR red-zone defense

26th48%25 trips

76% allowed17 trips faced29th

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsNo big edge

CAR big-play offenseexplosive-play rateGB defense against big plays

10th10.2%392 plays

6.5% allowed460 plays faced3rd

GB big-play offenseexplosive-play rateCAR defense against big plays

14th9.5%423 plays

8.0% allowed386 plays faced9th

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksEdge GB · +14 ranks

CAR pass protectionsack rateGB pass rush

20th6.6% sacked258 dropbacks

5.8% of dropbacks278 dropbacks faced19th

GB pass protectionsack rateCAR pass rush

9th4.9% sacked287 dropbacks

GB +14

4.8% of dropbacks228 dropbacks faced23rd

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversEdge GB · +14 ranks

CAR ball securityturnovers per gameGB takeaway defense

15th1.0 giveaways a game6 games

GB +14

1.9 takeaways a game7 games1st

GB ball securityturnovers per gameCAR takeaway defense

17th1.1 giveaways a game7 games

1.0 takeaways a game6 games16th

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

Sample: CAR 6 games, 392 offensive and 386 defensive plays · GB 7 games, 423 offensive and 460 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

Damien LewisLG→ Corey Bullock

Lee HunterNT→ Trevis Gipson

Jaelan PhillipsSLB→ Princely Umanmielen

Malcolm DeWalt IVLCB→ Marco Wilson

Will Lee IIIRCB→ Zakee Wheatley

MarShawn LloydRB→ Josh Jacobs

Sean RhyanC→ Laken Tomlinson

Travis GloverRG→ John Williams

Chris McClellanNT→ Brenton Cox Jr.

AwayPanthers4 questionable · 5 changes