Cardinals 18, Rams 16: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 6 · Sun, Oct 18 · SoFi StadiumFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
ARI	3	6	3	6	18
LAR	3	6	0	7	16

Home · 5-4Los AngelesRams16

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 5:53 PM ET

The Arizona Cardinals beat the Los Angeles Rams 18-16 on Sun, Oct 18 at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA (Week 6, 2026 season). Records after the game: Cardinals 3-6, Rams 5-4. D.Adams (LA) led all players with +3.5 EPA on 4 targets.

Who won Cardinals vs Rams?

The Arizona Cardinals won 18-16. By quarter: ARI 3-6-3-6, LAR 3-6-0-7.

Who was the best player in Cardinals vs Rams?

By expected points added: D.Adams (LA, +3.5 EPA on 4 targets), C.Parkinson (LA, +2.2 EPA on 6 targets) and J.Brooks (ARI, +2.2 EPA on 3 targets).

What was the turning point of Cardinals vs Rams?

The biggest swing in win probability (50 points toward the Cardinals) came in Q4 at 0:00: C.Ryland 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-C.Kreiter, Holder-B.Gillikin.

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Cardinals 18, Rams 16: Week 6 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-10-18-ari-at-lar (updated 2026-11-10).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 6 issue →

Week 6EarnedGame file →

Cardinals49% success · −0.07 EPA/play

1816

Rams47% success · −0.14 EPA/play

ARI 63% deserveddeserved 37% LAR

Cardinals earned it: the snaps said Cardinals by 1.9, a deserved win probability of 63%.

Deserved marginARI by 1.9

Real marginARI by 2

Luck pts ARI−0.3

Luck pts LAR−1.3

The swingQ4 0:03 · ARI · +40 pts of win probability. 38-C.Ryland 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

Flags that moved this game

1Unnecessary RoughnessLA → helped ARI · Wk 6 Q4 0:47 · (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep middle to 86-J.Brooks to LA 44 for 21 yards (30-J.Wallace). PENALTY on LA-30-J.Wallace,…+24.1 WP
2Defensive Pass InterferenceARI → helped LA · Wk 6 Q4 8:55 · (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 12-P.Nacua (13-K.Clark). PENALTY on ARI-13-K.Clark, Defensive…+10.2 WP

Fourth downs our model disagreed with

1LA · 4th & 1Sean McVay chose Punt at own 44, Wk 6 Q1 13:44, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.52 EP
2LA · 4th & 2Sean McVay chose Punt at own 43, Wk 6 Q1 4:17, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−0.91 EP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA146 plays, one strand4 lead changes · 7 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewClay Martin9 accepted flags in this game · 13.4 a game this season (about league average)Market vs SnapsLine: LAR by 12.5 · Snaps: ARI by 1.9Cardinals covered; the snaps agree

18@16

Week 6Changes the winner

If the 43-yard kick had missed

Rams after the play0%what really happened

Q4 0:03 38-C.Ryland 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

LAR ▲ARI ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+50%Q4 0:00 · for ARIC.Ryland 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-C.Kreiter, Holder-B.Gillikin.
+38%Q4 0:47 · for ARI(Shotgun) J.Brissett pass deep middle to J.Brooks to LA 44 for 21 yards (J.Wallace).PENALTY on LA-J.Wallace, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at LA 44.Penalty on LA-J.Stewart, Defensive Offside, declined.
+27%Q4 0:47 · for LARM.Stafford pass short right to C.Parkinson to ARZ 1 for 5 yards (D.Burke).The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED.M.Stafford pass short right to C.Parkinson for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: ARZ-D.Stills has returned to the game. E.Evans extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Cardona, Holder-S.Bennett.
+25%Q4 2:01 · for LAR(Shotgun) M.Stafford pass short middle to P.Nacua to ARZ 34 for 43 yards (G.Williams) [D.Robinson].
+14%Q4 8:05 · for ARI(Shotgun) M.Stafford pass short right to T.Higbee to ARZ 22 for 8 yards (C.Simon). FUMBLES (C.Simon), RECOVERED by ARZ-D.Burke at ARZ 25. ** Injury Update: ARZ-W.Nolen has returned to the game.

Every drive, on the field

LAR attacks →← ARI attacks

Q1 15:00PUNT3p · 9y · 1:25
Q1 13:35INT3p · 5y · 1:17
Q1 12:18FG6p · 6y · 2:37
Q1 9:41FG8p · 37y · 4:04
Q1 5:37PUNT3p · 8y · 1:28
Q1 4:09FG10p · 68y · 4:18
Q2 14:51TD12p · 73y · 6:28
Q2 8:23PUNT3p · 6y · 1:35
Q2 6:48PUNT3p · 4y · 1:28
Q2 5:20FG12p · 64y · 4:34
Q2 0:46HALF2p · 12y · 0:46
Q3 15:00FG15p · 56y · 8:35
Q3 6:25DOWNS9p · 46y · 3:46
Q3 2:39FG14p · 64y · 8:11
Q4 9:28FUM4p · 40y · 1:31
Q4 7:57PUNT3p · 4y · 1:02
Q4 6:55DOWNS7p · 28y · 3:38
Q4 3:17PUNT3p · 0y · 0:29
Q4 2:48TD8p · 86y · 2:01
Q4 0:47FG5p · 40y · 0:47

Cardinals10 drives6scoring drives (0 TD)60%drives ending in pointsOWN 31avg starting field position3three-and-outs1turnovers incl. downs

Rams9 drives3scoring drives (2 TD)33%drives ending in pointsOWN 32avg starting field position3three-and-outs3turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
9:41Field goalB.Grupe 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-J.Cardona, Holder-E.Evans.0–3
Q1
5:37Field goalC.Ryland 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-C.Kreiter, Holder-B.Gillikin.3–3
Q2
14:51Field goalC.Ryland 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-C.Kreiter, Holder-B.Gillikin.6–3
Q2
8:23Touchdown(Shotgun) M.Stafford pass short right to B.Corum for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. M.Stafford is sacked. ATTEMPT FAILS. DEFENSIVE TWO-POINT ATTEMPT. L.Collier recovered a fumble. ATTEMPT FAILS.6–9
Q2
0:46Field goalC.Ryland 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-C.Kreiter, Holder-B.Gillikin.9–9
Q3
6:25Field goalC.Ryland 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-C.Kreiter, Holder-B.Gillikin.12–9
Q4
9:28Field goal C.Ryland 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-C.Kreiter, Holder-B.Gillikin.15–9
Q4
0:47TouchdownM.Stafford pass short right to C.Parkinson to ARZ 1 for 5 yards (D.Burke).The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED.M.Stafford pass short right to C.Parkinson for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: ARZ-D.Stills has returned to the game. E.Evans extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Cardona, Holder-S.Bennett.15–16
Q4
0:00Field goalC.Ryland 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-C.Kreiter, Holder-B.Gillikin.18–16

Team stats

ARIvsLAR

338Total yards286

218Passing yards194

120Rushing yards92

4.8Yards per play5.1

22First downs19

5-15 · 33%Third down4-10 · 40%

0-0Fourth down0-2

0-5Red zone TDs2-4

24/35Comp / att25/33

3.4Yards per carry4.6

1Turnovers1

0Sacks allowed3 (−28 yds)

5 for 51Penalties4 for 31

34:52Possession25:08

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play-0.021-0.155

Dropback EPA+0.057-0.179

Rush EPA-0.098-0.111

Success rate49%47%

Explosive plays43

Plays7057

Who moved the needle

D.AdamsTargets: 4+3.5

C.ParkinsonTargets: 6+2.2

J.BrooksTargets: 3+2.2

J.BrissettDropbacks: 35+2.0

B.CorumCarries: 9+1.8

K.BourneTargets: 8+1.7

Cost their side the most

M.StaffordDropbacks: 37-6.6

T.AllgeierCarries: 18-4.1

T.McBrideTargets: 9-3.9

Box score

Arizona Cardinals

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Jacoby BrissettQB	24/35	218	6.2	0	1	0-0	43.8	73.3

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
Bam KnightRB	15	80	5.3	31
Tyler AllgeierRB	18	38	2.1	7
Jacoby BrissettQB	2	2	1.0	1

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	LONG
Trey McBrideTE	7	9	53	7.6	26
Kendrick BourneWR	5	8	47	9.4	15
Michael WilsonWR	4	7	32	8.0	12
Jalen BrooksWR	2	3	30	15.0	21
Elijah HigginsTE	3	3	28	9.3	17
Bam KnightRB	2	2	18	9.0	10
Tyler AllgeierRB	1	2	10	10.0	10

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Mack Wilson Sr.LB	9	4	0	0	0	0
Jack GibbensLB	7	4	0	0	0	0
Garrett WilliamsCB	6	5	0	0	0	0
Budda BakerS	6	4	1	2	1	2
Max MeltonCB	6	3	0	0	0	0
Dadrion Taylor-DemersonS	4	3	0	0	0	0
Josh SweatLB	4	2	1	1	0	2
Jordan BurchLB	3	2	0	0	0	0
Cody SimonLB	3	1	0	0	0	0
Dante StillsDT	2	2	0	1	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Chad RylandPK	6/6	100.0	43	0/0	18

Los Angeles Rams

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Matthew StaffordQB	25/33	222	6.7	2	0	3-28	49.3	113.4

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
Kyren WilliamsRB	10	50	5.0	14
Blake CorumRB	9	42	4.7	13
Davis AllenTE	1	0	0.0	0

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Puka NacuaWR	6	7	80	13.3	0	43
Davante AdamsWR	3	4	39	13.0	0	16
Colby ParkinsonTE	5	6	31	6.2	1	14
Tyler HigbeeTE	4	4	22	5.5	0	7
Blake CorumRB	2	2	18	9.0	1	15
Kyren WilliamsRB	3	6	17	5.7	0	7
Konata MumpfieldWR	2	3	15	7.5	0	8

Defense	TOT	SOLO	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Nate LandmanLB	10	6	0	0	0
Josh WallaceCB	8	5	1	2	0
Kam CurlS	8	3	1	0	0
Quentin LakeS	7	6	0	1	0
Jaylen WatsonCB	6	4	1	0	0
Byron YoungLB	6	1	1	0	2
Kamren KinchensS	5	2	0	0	0
Josaiah StewartLB	5	2	1	0	0
Jaylen McColloughS	4	2	0	0	0
Omar SpeightsLB	4	2	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Blake GrupePK	1/1	100.0	44	0/0	3
Ethan EvansP	0/0	0.0	0	1/1	1

Before kickoff · Regular season through week 5 · rank out of 32

Where it was expected to be decided

1Rams dropback offense vs Cardinals pass defense
The Rams' dropback offense ranks 12th in EPA per dropback (+0.12, 229 dropbacks) against a Cardinals pass defense ranked 31st (+0.35 allowed, 157 dropbacks faced).
12thLAR offense19 spots apart31stARI defense
2Rams third-down offense vs Cardinals third-down defense
The Rams' third-down offense ranks 5th in third-down conversion rate (46.9%, 64 third downs) against a Cardinals third-down defense ranked 23rd (43.9% allowed, 57 third downs faced).
5thLAR offense18 spots apart23rdARI defense
3Rams defense against big plays vs Cardinals big-play offense
The Rams' defense against big plays ranks 14th in explosive-play rate (8.8% allowed, 297 plays faced) and faces a Cardinals big-play offense ranked 32nd (4.3%, 329 plays).
32ndARI offense18 spots apart14thLAR defense

When the Cardinals have the ballNo big edge

ARI dropback offenseEPA per dropbackLAR pass defense

21st+0.01215 dropbacks

+0.01 allowed168 dropbacks faced15th

ARI run gameEPA per rushLAR run defense

15th-0.07114 rushes

-0.11 allowed129 rushes faced13th

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Rams have the ballEdge LAR · +19 ranks

LAR dropback offenseEPA per dropbackARI pass defense

12th+0.12229 dropbacks

LAR +19

+0.35 allowed157 dropbacks faced31st

LAR run gameEPA per rushARI run defense

12th-0.03118 rushes

-0.13 allowed138 rushes faced10th

Third downEdge LAR · +18 ranks

ARI third-down offensethird-down conversion rateLAR third-down defense

15th41.1%73 third downs

34.5% allowed58 third downs faced9th

LAR third-down offensethird-down conversion rateARI third-down defense

5th46.9%64 third downs

LAR +18

43.9% allowed57 third downs faced23rd

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneEdge LAR · +18 ranks

ARI red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateLAR red-zone defense

14th61%18 trips

ARI +9

65% allowed17 trips faced23rd

LAR red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateARI red-zone defense

11th65%20 trips

LAR +18

78% allowed18 trips faced29th

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsEdge LAR · +18 ranks

ARI big-play offenseexplosive-play rateLAR defense against big plays

32nd4.3%329 plays

LAR +18

8.8% allowed297 plays faced14th

LAR big-play offenseexplosive-play rateARI defense against big plays

13th9.8%347 plays

LAR +17

11.9% allowed295 plays faced30th

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksEdge ARI · +12 ranks

ARI pass protectionsack rateLAR pass rush

12th5.6% sacked215 dropbacks

ARI +12

4.8% of dropbacks168 dropbacks faced24th

LAR pass protectionsack rateARI pass rush

3rd3.1% sacked229 dropbacks

LAR +8

7.0% of dropbacks157 dropbacks faced11th

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversEdge ARI · +8 ranks

ARI ball securityturnovers per gameLAR takeaway defense

12th1.0 giveaways a game5 games

ARI +8

1.0 takeaways a game5 games20th

LAR ball securityturnovers per gameARI takeaway defense

22nd1.6 giveaways a game5 games

ARI +8

1.2 takeaways a game5 games14th

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

Sample: ARI 5 games, 329 offensive and 295 defensive plays · LAR 5 games, 347 offensive and 297 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

Carson BeckQB→ Jacoby Brissett

Reggie VirgilWR→ Michael Wilson

Simi FehokoWR→ Kendrick Bourne

Devin DuvernayWR→ Jalen Brooks

Roy LopezLDT→ Baron Browning

Kei'Trel ClarkLCB→ Kalen King

Andrew WingardFS→ Garrett Williams

CJ DanielsWR→ Puka Nacua

Tutu AtwellWR→ Davante Adams

Alaric JacksonLT→ David Quessenberry

Ty HamiltonNT→ Poona Ford