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The Verdict2026 · AFC East · through Week 9

Bills logoBuffalo BillsThe Verdict

Bills are 7-1; the play says 5.6 wins. That record is running 1.4 wins ahead of how they have played, the kind of gap that usually closes. They are 4-1 in one-score games. On fourth down, Joe Brady kicked away 2 of 9 situations our model called a go.

This week's issueLeague Luck IndexHow we judge
Luck wins · 2nd of 32+1.47-1 real · 5.6 deserved · 5.4 Pythagorean
Luck points · 7th of 32+7.7fumble bounces +2.0 · opponents' kicks +5.7
Chicken Index · 30th of 3222%Joe Brady · 1.4 expected points lost on 38 graded calls
Flags net · 18th of 32−9.7 WP68 flags for 583 yards against · 58 drawn

Every game, judged

latest first

Bottom lineNone of these 8 games went against the play; 2 were coin flips.

How to read this chart
Each card is one game.
Under each team: its success rate (share of snaps that kept the offense on schedule) and EPA per play (expected points added: how much each snap improved its scoring chances; 0 is average).
The split bar is the deserved win probability:
how often each team would win if the game were replayed from the same snaps. Away team on the left, home team on the right, 50-50 at the tick in the middle. The longer side played better.
The stamp is the ruling.
Earned: the winner also played better. Coin flip: the winner deserved it less than 60% of the time. Robbed: the loser deserved to win at least 70% of the time (when this team won one of those, it reads Lucky).
Luck pts
(full cards): real margin minus deserved margin; plus means the scoreboard was kinder than the play.
Week 9EarnedGame file →
Bills logoBills40% success · −0.04 EPA/play
236
Vikings logoVikings27% success · −0.68 EPA/play

Bills earned it: the snaps said Bills by 20.0, a deserved win probability of more than 99%.

Deserved marginBUF by 20.0
Real marginBUF by 17
Luck pts BUF+0.8
Luck pts MIN−3.3

The swingQ1 5:30 · MIN · −14 pts of win probability. 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short right to 18-J.Jefferson. Buffalo challenged the forward pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 11-C.Wentz FUMBLES (Aborted) at MIN 43, RECOVERED by BUF-15-G.Rousseau at MIN 44.

Week 8EarnedGame file →
Ravens logoRavens33% success · −0.42 EPA/play
1036
Bills logoBills49% success · +0.04 EPA/play

Bills earned it: the snaps said Bills by 18.5, a deserved win probability of more than 99%.

Deserved marginBUF by 18.5
Real marginBUF by 26
Luck pts BAL−4.2
Luck pts BUF+4.8

The swingQ2 1:21 · BAL · −16 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 12-J.Fagnano pass short left intended for 4-Z.Flowers INTERCEPTED by 21-D.Igbinosun (25-G.Stone) at 50. 21-D.Igbinosun to BAL 33 for 17 yards (79-R.Stanley; 6-J.Lane).

The luck sheet

All 32 →
One-score games4-1Decided by 8 points or fewer. Over a season teams win about half of these.
Fumble bounces+2.0 ptsKept 5 of 11 own fumbles; won 6 of 10 by opponents. League offenses keep 53%.
Opponents' kicks+5.7 ptsOpponents made 11 of 15 field goals against an expected 13.2, and 20 of 20 extra points.
Own kicking+6.9 ptsMade 19 of 19 field goals against 16.7 expected by distance. Skill, not luck: not in the luck total.
Net EPA per play+0.1355th of 32 · offense minus defense, passes and runs
Our picks on them4-3Our pregame model in Bills games. All receipts

Coach on trial

Joe Brady · 38 graded fourth downs · went for it 10×

Bottom lineThe calls against the model in this list cost 1.2 expected points in total.

How to read this chart
Each row is one fourth down:
distance, spot, score, what the coach chose and what our model would have done (a clear call, a lean or a toss-up).
The number on the right
is what the choice cost in expected points (EP, what a possession is worth on average from that spot): −1.00 means about a point thrown away. ✓ = the coach made the model's call.
The result
is what happened next; the grade judges the decision, not the outcome.
  1. 1BUF · 4th & 3Joe Brady chose Field goal at opp 5, Wk 5 Q1 0:13, up 3. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: good.−0.83 EP
  2. 2BUF · 4th & 3Joe Brady chose Punt at own 37, Wk 4 Q2 8:35, tied. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.40 EP

Brave and right

  1. 1BUF · 4th & 1Joe Brady chose Go for it at own 43, Wk 3 Q1 4:29, down 7. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
  2. 2BUF · 4th & 1Joe Brady chose Go for it at own 43, Wk 8 Q2 2:19, up 6. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
  3. 3BUF · 4th & 1Joe Brady chose Go for it at opp 11, Wk 8 Q2 12:31, up 3. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
  4. 4BUF · 4th & 1Joe Brady chose Go for it at opp 1, Wk 8 Q1 10:12, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: touchdown.✓ EP
How to read this chart
Every fourth down this season.
Go EP, Punt EP and FG EP are the expected points of each option from that spot: the highest is the model's call.
Cost:
how many expected points the coach's choice gave up against the best one; ✓ = he made the best call. Late-game and lopsided situations are listed but not graded.
SituationWkChoiceModelGo EPPunt EPFG EPCostResult
4th & 21 · opp 47 · Q1 13:119PuntPunt-0.83-0.26-0.53✓punted
4th & 4 · opp 21 · Q1 2:009Field goalField goal2.09–2.61✓good
4th & 11 · own 12 · Q1 0:039PuntPunt-3.13-2.14–✓punted
4th & 13 · own 10 · Q2 12:029PuntPunt-3.41-2.29–✓punted
4th & 23 · own 2 · Q2 5:469PuntPunt-4.40-2.94–✓punted
4th & 6 · opp 6 · Q3 6:069Field goalField goal1.95–2.92✓good
4th & 17 · opp 46 · Q3 0:409PuntPunt (toss-up)-0.65-0.24-0.34✓punted
4th & 1 · opp 38 · Q4 10:159Go for itGo for it2.15-0.131.03✓converted
4th & 3 · opp 34 · Q4 4:459Field goalnot graded1.47-0.111.58good
4th & 1 · opp 1 · Q1 10:128Go for itGo for it4.12–2.95✓touchdown
4th & 7 · opp 38 · Q1 6:108Field goalField goal0.47-0.131.03✓good
4th & 4 · opp 37 · Q2 15:008Go for itField goal (toss-up)1.02-0.121.18−0.16stopped
4th & 1 · opp 11 · Q2 12:318Go for itGo for it4.08–2.87✓converted
4th & 4 · opp 4 · Q2 9:538Field goalField goal2.44–2.94✓good
4th & 8 · own 26 · Q2 6:468PuntPunt-1.91-1.27–✓punted
4th & 1 · own 43 · Q2 2:198Go for itGo for it0.96-0.52–✓converted
4th & 10 · opp 33 · Q2 0:148Field goalnot graded0.52-0.111.70good
4th & 31 · own 35 · Q3 2:128Puntnot graded-2.16-0.83–punted
4th & 1 · opp 34 · Q4 7:308Go for itnot graded2.42-0.111.58converted
4th & 8 · opp 26 · Q1 10:166Field goalField goal1.15–2.34✓good
4th & 10 · opp 10 · Q2 14:486Field goalField goal1.30–2.89✓good
4th & 17 · own 23 · Q2 1:486Puntnot graded-2.66-1.43–punted
4th & 12 · opp 28 · Q3 9:506Field goalField goal0.71–2.19✓good
4th & 10 · own 40 · Q4 12:036PuntPunt-1.18-0.63–✓punted
4th & 6 · opp 20 · Q4 2:006Field goalnot graded1.79–2.65good
4th & 15 · opp 31 · Q1 13:285Field goalField goal0.37-0.111.92✓good
4th & 3 · opp 5 · Q1 0:135Field goalGo for it3.76–2.93−0.83good
4th & 21 · own 41 · Q3 8:245PuntPunt-1.59-0.59–✓punted
4th & 5 · own 38 · Q1 13:414PuntPunt (toss-up)-0.74-0.71–✓punted
4th & 2 · opp 41 · Q1 3:274Go for itGo for it1.39-0.160.55✓converted
4th & 3 · own 37 · Q2 8:354PuntGo for it-0.35-0.75–−0.40punted
4th & 7 · own 44 · Q3 6:324PuntPunt (toss-up)-0.65-0.49–✓punted
4th & 4 · own 17 · Q3 2:364PuntPunt (toss-up)-1.90-1.80–✓punted
4th & 10 · opp 20 · Q4 11:114Field goalField goal1.38–2.65✓good
4th & 22 · own 34 · Q1 7:373PuntPunt-2.07-0.87–✓punted
4th & 1 · own 43 · Q1 4:293Go for itGo for it0.96-0.52–✓converted
4th & 9 · opp 10 · Q2 6:053Field goalField goal2.28–2.89✓good
4th & 6 · opp 43 · Q4 11:153Go for itGo for it (toss-up)0.29-0.190.20✓converted
4th & 5 · own 35 · Q2 0:462Puntnot graded-0.93-0.83–punted
4th & 8 · 50 · Q4 8:322Puntnot graded-0.39-0.32–punted
4th & 1 · opp 34 · Q1 11:181Go for itGo for it2.42-0.111.58✓stopped
4th & 6 · opp 28 · Q1 7:321Field goalField goal1.25–2.19✓good
4th & 12 · own 33 · Q3 9:411PuntPunt-1.76-0.92–✓punted
4th & 10 · opp 16 · Q3 4:271Field goalField goal1.91–2.78✓good
4th & 4 · opp 14 · Q4 10:361Field goalField goal (toss-up)2.59–2.82✓good
4th & 12 · own 18 · Q4 5:451PuntPunt-2.77-1.73–✓punted

Flags against

Ledger →

Bottom lineThe biggest here: Defensive Pass Interference on BUF in Week 9, worth +9 points of win probability to MIN.

How to read this chart
Each row is one flag:
the team in red was penalized, the team in green was helped.
The number on the right
is how much that flag moved the helped team's chance of winning, in points (100 = a whole game). When the play still counted, the play is included, so treat it as an upper bound.
Touchdown erased
marks a score wiped off by the flag, with the expected points it cost.
  1. 1Defensive Pass InterferenceBUF → helped MIN · Wk 9 Q3 13:26 · (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete deep right to 33-A.Jones (8-T.Bernard). PENALTY on BUF-8-T.Bernard, Defensive Pass…+9.4 WP
  2. 2Illegal Blindside BlockBUF → helped HOU · Wk 1 Q3 13:19 · 38-K.Kroeger punts 48 yards to BUF 28, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 19-G.Dortch pushed ob at BUF 36 for 8 yards (8-C.Stover;…+9.3 WP
  3. 3Offensive HoldingBUF → helped LAC · Wk 3 Q4 10:30 · (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles up the middle to LAC 4 for 16 yards (0-D.Henley). PENALTY on BUF-73-D.Dawkins, Offensive Holding,…+9.1 WP
  4. 4Defensive Pass InterferenceBUF → helped LA · Wk 5 Q3 10:18 · (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep middle to 89-T.Higbee [55-M.Hoecht]. PENALTY on BUF-24-C.Bishop, Defensive Pass…+8.6 WP
  5. 5Roughing the PasserBUF → helped BAL · Wk 8 Q3 14:06 · (Shotgun) 12-J.Fagnano pass deep right to 7-R.Bateman to BUF 43 for 22 yards (3-D.Hamlin). PENALTY on BUF-91-E.Oliver, Roughing…+7.9 WP
FoulFlagsYardsWP given
Defensive Pass Interference710829.5
False Start136527.6
Defensive Holding105323.7
Offensive Holding1414023.6
Roughing the Passer34516.9
Illegal Blindside Block1149.3
Unnecessary Roughness1156.6
Intentional Grounding1135.7

Flags drawn

  1. 1Defensive Pass InterferenceHOU → helped BUF · Wk 1 Q2 4:13 · 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to 2-D.Moore (3-K.Lassiter). PENALTY on HOU-3-K.Lassiter, Defensive Pass Interference, 46…+14.8 WP
  2. 2Defensive HoldingLA → helped BUF · Wk 5 Q3 3:49 · (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right end to LA 4 for 9 yards (5-K.Kinchens). PENALTY on LA-30-J.Wallace, Defensive Holding, 2…+10.9 WP
  3. 3Defensive HoldingLAC → helped BUF · Wk 3 Q4 9:36 · (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right end to LAC 32 for 8 yards (90-A.Mesidor; 20-C.Hart). FUMBLES (90-A.Mesidor), RECOVERED by…+10.7 WP
  4. 4Defensive HoldingNE → helped BUF · Wk 4 Q2 1:48 · (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 2-D.Moore (25-M.Jones) [53-C.Elliss]. PENALTY on NE-25-M.Jones, Defensive…+8.8 WP
  5. 5Chop BlockHOU → helped BUF · Wk 1 Q3 13:39 · (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 14-K.Boutte to HOU 45 for 6 yards (55-M.Hoecht). PENALTY on HOU-32-D.Montgomery, Chop…+5.9 WP

Garbage Time Tax

14.6% of the offense's yards came with the game decided · 27th most of 32

Bottom lineDalton Kincaid: 138 of 429 yards (32%) came with the game decided.

How to read this chart
One bar per player,
as long as his season yards (passing, rushing or receiving).
Blue = yards with the game still alive.
Striped amber = garbage time: yards gained when the offense's chance of winning was already under 10% or over 90%, so the game was basically decided.
The percentage
is the garbage-time share of his yards (amber from 30% up).
Josh AllenBUF · passing · 2,027 yds14%
James Cook IIIBUF · rushing · 814 yds18%
Dalton KincaidBUF · receiving · 429 yds32%
Khalil ShakirBUF · receiving · 397 yds6%
Keon ColemanBUF · receiving · 319 yds19%
DJ MooreBUF · receiving · 285 yds5%

Our picks on the Bills

Receipts →
  1. 1Week 9We gave the Bills 49% at vikings. 23-6 final, a win.Wrong
  2. 2Week 8We gave the Bills 57% at home against ravens. 10-36 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
  3. 3Week 6We gave the Bills 52% at raiders. 33-30 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
  4. 4Week 5We gave the Bills 45% at rams. 37-34 final, a win. (rebuilt)Wrong
  5. 5Week 4We gave the Bills 73% at home against patriots. 29-26 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Wrong
  6. 6Week 3We gave the Bills 79% at home against chargers. 16-24 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
  7. 7Week 2We gave the Bills 57% at home against lions. 31-41 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
Cite thisPigskin Nightly, "Buffalo Bills verdict, 2026", https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/bills/verdict (2026)CC BY 4.0Data licenseCSVJSONEmbedHow it works

Every number on this page is computed from the 2026 nflverse play-by-play by our own models. Nothing is hand-picked.