49ers 20, Falcons 29: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 7 · Sun, Oct 25 · Mercedes-Benz StadiumFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
SF	7	7	0	6	20
ATL	3	9	7	10	29

Home · 3-6AtlantaFalcons29

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 11:29 PM ET

The Atlanta Falcons beat the San Francisco 49ers 29-20 on Sun, Oct 25 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA (Week 7, 2026 season). Records after the game: 49ers 7-1, Falcons 3-6. M.Penix (ATL) led all players with +8.7 EPA on 34 dropbacks.

Who won 49ers vs Falcons?

The Atlanta Falcons won 29-20. By quarter: SF 7-7-0-6, ATL 3-9-7-10.

Who was the best player in 49ers vs Falcons?

By expected points added: M.Penix (ATL, +8.7 EPA on 34 dropbacks), D.London (ATL, +7.0 EPA on 10 targets) and C.McCaffrey (SF, +4.5 EPA on 7 targets).

What was the turning point of 49ers vs Falcons?

The biggest swing in win probability (23 points toward the Falcons) came in Q4 at 2:42: (Shotgun) B.Purdy pass short middle intended for J.Watkins INTERCEPTED by K.Daniels at SF 48. K.Daniels pushed ob at SF 19 for 29 yards (T.Williams).

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “49ers 20, Falcons 29: Week 7 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-10-25-sf-at-atl (updated 2026-11-11).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 7 issue →

Week 7EarnedGame file →

49ers56% success · +0.01 EPA/play

2029

Falcons48% success · +0.04 EPA/play

SF 34% deserveddeserved 66% ATL

Falcons earned it: the snaps said Falcons by 2.3, a deserved win probability of 66%.

Deserved marginATL by 2.3

Real marginATL by 9

Luck pts SF−3.8

Luck pts ATL+5.0

The swingQ2 4:24 · SF · −15 pts of win probability. 26-K.Black up the middle to ATL 29 for -1 yards (92-M.Smith). FUMBLES (92-M.Smith), touched at ATL 29, RECOVERED by ATL-95-G.Dexter at ATL 29.

Flags that moved this game

1Defensive Pass InterferenceSF → helped ATL · Wk 7 Q3 1:00 · (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete deep right to 4-J.Dotson. PENALTY on SF-25-J.Jones, Defensive Pass Interference, 20 yards,…+7.1 WP
2EncroachmentSF → helped ATL · Wk 7 Q2 0:29 · (Shotgun) PENALTY on SF-92-O.Odighizuwa, Encroachment, 5 yards, enforced at SF 44 - No Play.+7.0 WP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA140 plays, one strand1 lead change · 9 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewClay Martin12 accepted flags in this game · 13.4 a game this season (about league average)Market vs SnapsLine: SF by 2.5 · Snaps: ATL by 2.3Falcons covered; the snaps agree

20@29

Week 7

If the 33-yard kick had missed

49ers after the play51%what really happened

Q2 0:02 6-N.Folk 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

ATL ▲SF ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+23%Q4 2:42 · for ATL(Shotgun) B.Purdy pass short middle intended for J.Watkins INTERCEPTED by K.Daniels at SF 48. K.Daniels pushed ob at SF 19 for 29 yards (T.Williams).
+11%Q4 14:55 · for ATL(Shotgun) M.Penix pass deep left to D.London for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-L.McCullough, Holder-J.Bailey.
+9%Q3 1:00 · for ATL(Shotgun) M.Penix pass incomplete deep right to J.Dotson.PENALTY on SF-J.Jones, Defensive Pass Interference, 20 yards, enforced at ATL 46 - No Play.
+9%Q4 12:27 · for SF(Shotgun) B.Purdy pass short right to J.Cowing to ATL 23 for 11 yards (M.Hughes).
+9%Q3 5:41 · for ATL(Shotgun) B.Purdy pass short right intended for J.Cowing INTERCEPTED by J.Bates at ATL 10. J.Bates ran ob at ATL 10 for no gain.

Every drive, on the field

ATL attacks →← SF attacks

Q1 15:00TD10p · 64y · 5:38
Q1 9:22FG5p · 15y · 2:16
Q1 7:06PUNT6p · 18y · 3:30
Q1 3:36PUNT3p · 5y · 2:01
Q1 1:35TD4p · 63y · 1:41
Q2 14:54TD10p · 68y · 6:07
Q2 8:47FUM8p · 41y · 4:27
Q2 4:20FG14p · 56y · 4:20
Q3 15:00TD10p · 59y · 6:01
Q3 8:59INT6p · 43y · 3:27
Q3 5:32TD11p · 90y · 5:37
Q4 14:55DOWNS11p · 46y · 3:25
Q4 11:30PUNT3p · 5y · 1:57
Q4 9:33TD10p · 82y · 4:28
Q4 5:05PUNT3p · -2y · 1:03
Q4 4:02INT3p · 1y · 1:28
Q4 2:34FG4p · 6y · 0:38
Q4 1:56FUM7p · 45y · 1:09
Q4 0:47END3p · -3y · 0:47

49ers9 drives3scoring drives (3 TD)33%drives ending in pointsOWN 33avg starting field position0three-and-outs5turnovers incl. downs

Falcons9 drives6scoring drives (3 TD)67%drives ending in pointsOWN 37avg starting field position3three-and-outs0turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
9:22TouchdownC.McCaffrey up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Weeks, Holder-C.Waitman.7–0
Q1
7:06Field goalN.Folk 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-L.McCullough, Holder-J.Bailey.7–3
Q2
14:54TouchdownK.Black up the middle for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Weeks, Holder-C.Waitman.14–3
Q2
8:47TouchdownC.Levin and K.Hinton reported in as eligible. M.Penix pass short left to N.Muse for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. N.Folk extra point is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-L.McCullough, Holder-J.Bailey.14–9
Q2
0:00Field goalN.Folk 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-L.McCullough, Holder-J.Bailey.14–12
Q3
8:59TouchdownM.Penix pass short left to K.Pitts for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-L.McCullough, Holder-J.Bailey.14–19
Q4
14:55Touchdown(Shotgun) M.Penix pass deep left to D.London for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-L.McCullough, Holder-J.Bailey.14–26
Q4
5:05TouchdownB.Purdy pass short left to K.Juszczyk for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. E.Pineiro extra point is No Good, Wide Left, Center-J.Weeks, Holder-C.Waitman.20–26
Q4
1:56Field goal N.Folk 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-L.McCullough, Holder-J.Bailey.20–29

Team stats

SFvsATL

400Total yards295

277Passing yards213

123Rushing yards82

6.2Yards per play4.7

26First downs21

4-10 · 40%Third down4-12 · 33%

3-4Fourth down0-0

2-2Red zone TDs2-5

27/40Comp / att25/34

5.3Yards per carry2.8

4Turnovers0

2 (−11 yds)Sacks allowed0

7 for 55Penalties5 for 39

29:13Possession30:47

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play+0.010+0.050

Dropback EPA-0.048+0.256

Rush EPA+0.113-0.230

Success rate56%47%

Explosive plays82

Plays6459

Who moved the needle

M.PenixDropbacks: 34+8.7

D.LondonTargets: 10+7.0

C.McCaffreyTargets: 7+4.5

C.McCaffreyCarries: 7+3.4

G.KittleTargets: 10+2.7

Bi.RobinsonTargets: 5+2.5

Cost their side the most

Bi.RobinsonCarries: 20-5.3

K.BlackCarries: 12-4.6

K.BlackTargets: 3-2.7

Box score

San Francisco 49ers

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Brock PurdyQB	27/40	288	7.2	1	2	2-11	55.6	75.8

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Kaelon BlackRB	12	63	5.3	1	30
Christian McCaffreyRB	7	39	5.6	1	14
Jacob CowingWR	1	10	10.0	0	10
Jordan JamesRB	1	6	6.0	0	6
Brock PurdyQB	2	5	2.5	0	3

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
George KittleTE	8	10	88	11.0	0	21
Christian McCaffreyRB	6	7	61	10.2	0	24
Jordan WatkinsWR	3	6	56	18.7	0	35
Jacob CowingWR	3	5	38	12.7	0	18
Luke FarrellTE	1	1	14	14.0	0	14
Brandin CooksWR	1	3	13	13.0	0	13
Kyle JuszczykFB	3	3	11	3.7	1	8
Jordan JamesRB	1	1	11	11.0	0	11
Kaelon BlackRB	1	3	-4	-4.0	0	-4

Defense	TOT	SOLO	TFL
Fred WarnerLB	13	6	2
Dre GreenlawLB	12	4	0
Malik MustaphaS	8	3	0
Deommodore LenoirCB	6	2	0
Jack Jones	5	2	0
Ji'Ayir BrownS	5	2	0
Renardo GreenCB	4	3	0
James Thompson Jr.DT	4	3	0
Ashtyn DavisS	2	2	0
Mykel WilliamsDE	2	1	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Eddy PineiroPK	0/0	0.0	0	2/3	2

Atlanta Falcons

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Michael Penix Jr.QB	25/34	213	6.3	3	0	0-0	77.2	118.9

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
Bijan RobinsonRB	20	63	3.2	12
Khalil HerbertRB	2	9	4.5	8
Zachariah BranchWR	1	8	8.0	8
Charlie WoernerTE	1	3	3.0	3
Michael Penix Jr.QB	5	-1	-0.2	2

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Drake LondonWR	7	10	66	9.4	1	21
Bijan RobinsonRB	5	5	59	11.8	0	19
Kyle Pitts Sr.TE	5	5	22	4.4	1	9
Austin HooperTE	2	2	21	10.5	0	11
Khalil HerbertRB	1	1	19	19.0	0	19
Charlie WoernerTE	1	1	9	9.0	0	9
Zachariah BranchWR	1	2	9	9.0	0	9
Jahan DotsonWR	1	3	6	6.0	0	6
Nick MuseTE	2	2	2	1.0	1	1
Chris BlairWR	0	1	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Kendal DanielsLB	11	9	0	1	1	0
Harold Perkins Jr.LB	9	4	0	1	0	0
Jessie Bates IIIS	9	2	0	0	2	0
Xavier WattsS	7	3	0	0	0	0
C.J. HendersonCB	6	4	0	0	2	0
A.J. Terrell Jr.CB	5	1	0	0	1	0
LaCale LondonDE	3	2	0	0	0	0
DeMarcco HellamsS	3	1	0	0	0	0
Zach HarrisonDE	3	0	0	0	0	0
Maason SmithDT	2	2	1	2	0	1

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Nick FolkPK	3/3	100.0	39	2/3	11

Before kickoff · Regular season through week 6 · rank out of 32

Where it was expected to be decided

149ers third-down offense vs Falcons third-down defense
The 49ers' third-down offense ranks 1st in third-down conversion rate (51.5%, 66 third downs) against a Falcons third-down defense ranked 23rd (43.7% allowed, 87 third downs faced).
1stSF offense22 spots apart23rdATL defense
249ers pass protection vs Falcons pass rush
The 49ers' pass protection ranks 2nd in sack rate (2.6% sacked, 191 dropbacks) against a Falcons pass rush ranked 20th (5.6% of dropbacks, 267 dropbacks faced).
2ndSF offense18 spots apart20thATL defense
349ers dropback offense vs Falcons pass defense
The 49ers' dropback offense ranks 1st in EPA per dropback (+0.36, 191 dropbacks) against a Falcons pass defense ranked 17th (+0.02 allowed, 267 dropbacks faced).
1stSF offense16 spots apart17thATL defense

When the 49ers have the ballEdge SF · +16 ranks

SF dropback offenseEPA per dropbackATL pass defense

1st+0.36191 dropbacks

SF +16

+0.02 allowed267 dropbacks faced17th

SF run gameEPA per rushATL run defense

6th+0.01146 rushes

-0.12 allowed129 rushes faced10th

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Falcons have the ballEdge SF · +16 ranks

ATL dropback offenseEPA per dropbackSF pass defense

29th-0.15193 dropbacks

SF +16

+0.01 allowed234 dropbacks faced13th

ATL run gameEPA per rushSF run defense

4th+0.05166 rushes

-0.16 allowed141 rushes faced5th

Third downEdge SF · +22 ranks

SF third-down offensethird-down conversion rateATL third-down defense

1st51.5%66 third downs

SF +22

43.7% allowed87 third downs faced23rd

ATL third-down offensethird-down conversion rateSF third-down defense

19th38.9%72 third downs

38.6% allowed83 third downs faced13th

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneEdge SF · +20 ranks

SF red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateATL red-zone defense

1st86%21 trips

SF +20

64% allowed25 trips faced21st

ATL red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateSF red-zone defense

4th75%16 trips

50% allowed18 trips faced6th

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsEdge SF · +9 ranks

SF big-play offenseexplosive-play rateATL defense against big plays

4th12.5%337 plays

7.3% allowed396 plays faced6th

ATL big-play offenseexplosive-play rateSF defense against big plays

10th10.6%359 plays

SF +9

4.5% allowed375 plays faced1st

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksEdge SF · +18 ranks

SF pass protectionsack rateATL pass rush

2nd2.6% sacked191 dropbacks

SF +18

5.6% of dropbacks267 dropbacks faced20th

ATL pass protectionsack rateSF pass rush

26th8.3% sacked193 dropbacks

SF +9

6.4% of dropbacks234 dropbacks faced17th

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversEdge SF · +21 ranks

SF ball securityturnovers per gameATL takeaway defense

6th0.7 giveaways a game6 games

SF +21

0.8 takeaways a game6 games27th

ATL ball securityturnovers per gameSF takeaway defense

24th1.7 giveaways a game6 games

1.0 takeaways a game6 games20th

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

Sample: SF 6 games, 337 offensive and 375 defensive plays · ATL 6 games, 359 offensive and 396 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

Mike EvansWR→ Jordan Watkins

Deebo Samuel Sr.WR→ Brandin Cooks

Keenan AllenWR→ Jacob Cowing

DeForest BucknerRDT→ Sebastian Valdez

Nick BosaRDE→ Romello Height

Upton StoutNB→ Ashtyn Davis

Olamide ZaccheausWR→ Zachariah Branch

Kyle Pitts Sr.TE→ Charlie Woerner

Corey LevinC→ Ryan Neuzil

Divine DeabloRILB→ Harold Perkins Jr.

James Pearce Jr.SLB→ LaCale London

DeMarcco HellamsSS→ Jessie Bates III

Away49ers4 questionable · 6 changes

Offense

QB#13Brock PurdyStart
RB#23Christian McCaffreyStart
FB#44Kyle JuszczykStart
WR#17Jordan Watkinsin for Mike EvansSwap
WR#84Brandin Cooksin for Deebo Samuel Sr.Swap
WR#4Jacob Cowingin for Keenan AllenSwap
TE#85George KittleStart
LT#71Trent WilliamsStart
LG#75Connor ColbyStart
C#64Jake BrendelStart
RG#77Dominick PuniStart
RT#68Colton McKivitzStart

Defense

LDE#56Keion WhiteStart
LDT#92Osa OdighizuwaStart
RDT#55Sebastian Valdezin for DeForest BucknerSwap
RDE#94Romello Heightin for Nick BosaSwap
WLB#57Dre GreenlawStart
MLB#54Fred WarnerStart
SLB#53Jaden DuggerStart
LCB#0Renardo GreenQStart
NB#24Ashtyn Davisin for Upton StoutSwap
RCB#2Deommodore LenoirQStart
FS#27Ji'Ayir BrownStart
SS#6Malik MustaphaStart

K Eddy Pineiro ✓P Corliss Waitman ✓LS Jon Weeks ✓

Also on the field with starter snapsGracen Halton DT

HomeFalcons6 changes

Offense

QB#9Michael Penix Jr.Start
RB#7Bijan RobinsonStart
WR#5Drake LondonStart
WR#4Jahan DotsonStart
WR#17Zachariah Branchin for Olamide ZaccheausSwap
TE#89Charlie Woernerin for Kyle Pitts Sr.Swap
LT#70Jake MatthewsStart
LG#65Matthew BergeronStart
C#64Ryan Neuzilin for Corey LevinSwap
RG#63Chris LindstromStart
RT#71Jawaan TaylorStart

Defense

LDE#92Maason SmithStart
NT#95Gervon Dexter Sr.Start
RDE#54Brandon DorlusStart
WLB#99Cameron ThomasStart
LILB#53Kendal DanielsStart
RILB#56Harold Perkins Jr.in for Divine DeabloSwap
SLB#94LaCale Londonin for James Pearce Jr.Swap
LCB#24A.J. Terrell Jr.Start
NB#29Sydney BrownStart
RCB#26C.J. HendersonStart
FS#31Xavier WattsStart
SS#30Jessie Bates IIIin for DeMarcco HellamsSwap

K Jake MoodyP Jake Bailey ✓LS Liam McCullough ✓

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