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WSH ThuNYG NE SunDET BUF SunNYJ CAR SunNO HOU SunCLE JAX SunTEN KC SunATL MIA SunIND MIN SunGB LAR SunARI SEA SunLV SF SunDAL PIT SunCIN LAC MonBAL
The LabWhere the line and the tape disagree

Market vs Snaps

The closing line is the sharpest public opinion in football. The snaps are what actually happened on the field. Across 136 games they agreed on who should cover 111 times; on average the snaps landed 8.8 points away from the line. These are the teams the market keeps misreading. Analysis, not advice: we make no picks here.

136 gamesOur ReceiptsJSON

Bottom lineAcross 136 games the snaps landed 8.8 points from the line on average. Biggest gaps: Jaguars (+8.3) and Eagles (−8.9). This describes the season; it is not a betting signal.

How to read this chart
One logo = one team.
Left to right: how many points a game the betting line expected the team to win or lose by, on average (the market). Bottom to top: how many points a game its play on the field was actually worth (the snaps, from expected points: how much each play moved the expected score).
The diagonal line
is where the two agree. A logo above it (green zone) played better than it was priced; below it (red zone), the market priced it higher than its play.
The short stem
under or over each logo shows the size of that gap. Farther from the line = bigger disagreement.
-10-10-5-500+5+5+10+10Snaps see a better team than the marketMarket pays for more than the snaps showJaguars: market +4.4, snaps +12.7 points a game49ers: market +4.4, snaps +11.4 points a gameRams: market +4.7, snaps +9.3 points a gamePackers: market +0.4, snaps +4.7 points a gameBuccaneers: market −2.1, snaps +1.7 points a gameChiefs: market +4.4, snaps +7.8 points a gameBills: market +3.6, snaps +6.6 points a gameBears: market +1.9, snaps +4.8 points a gameGiants: market −2.7, snaps +0.2 points a gameBrowns: market −3.8, snaps −1.8 points a gameJets: market −2.8, snaps −1.3 points a gameBengals: market +4.1, snaps +5.7 points a gameSteelers: market +1.6, snaps +2.3 points a gamePanthers: market −0.4, snaps 0.0 points a gameDolphins: market −7.4, snaps −7.6 points a gameCardinals: market −6.1, snaps −6.4 points a gameCommanders: market −3.1, snaps −3.5 points a gameVikings: market +1.4, snaps +0.8 points a gameTexans: market +3.2, snaps +2.0 points a gameSeahawks: market +4.7, snaps +3.4 points a gamePatriots: market +1.1, snaps −0.4 points a gameRaiders: market −3.8, snaps −5.2 points a gameTitans: market −5.9, snaps −7.6 points a gameBroncos: market +0.9, snaps −0.9 points a gameFalcons: market −2.3, snaps −4.3 points a gameRavens: market +1.2, snaps −0.8 points a gameLions: market +3.9, snaps +1.6 points a gameCowboys: market +3.1, snaps +0.5 points a gameSaints: market −1.2, snaps −4.6 points a gameColts: market −2.6, snaps −8.2 points a gameChargers: market −2.7, snaps −10.7 points a gameEagles: market −1.2, snaps −10.2 points a gameMarket: expected margin from the line →↑ Snaps: deserved margin
Market underratesJaguars+8.3snaps +12.7 vs line +4.4 a game49ers+7.0snaps +11.4 vs line +4.4 a gameRams+4.6snaps +9.3 vs line +4.7 a game
Market overratesEagles−8.9snaps −10.2 vs line −1.2 a gameChargers−8.0snaps −10.7 vs line −2.7 a gameColts−5.6snaps −8.2 vs line −2.6 a game
All 32

The market gap, team by team

Points a game the snaps beat (or trail) the line · trend by week
How to read this chart
Gap
is points a game the team's play beat (green, to the right) or trailed (red, to the left) the betting line. The middle of the bar is zero.
Against the line
is the real record against the spread: wins, losses, ties. The next column is the same count if the final score had matched the play on the field.
Trend
is the gap week by week: above the faint middle line = better than priced, below = worse.
TeamGapSnaps vs lineAgainst the lineSnaps vs line, ATSTrend
Jaguars+8.35-36-249ers+7.05-37-1Rams+4.65-46-3Packers+4.35-3-15-4Buccaneers+3.84-4-17-2Chiefs+3.34-46-2Bills+2.96-24-4Bears+2.96-36-3Giants+2.96-25-3Browns+2.06-36-3Jets+1.54-4-16-3Bengals+1.54-3-15-3Steelers+0.76-24-4Panthers+0.43-54-4Dolphins−0.23-4-13-5Cardinals−0.34-53-6Commanders−0.34-43-5Vikings−0.64-44-4Texans−1.23-54-4Seahawks−1.33-4-24-4-1Patriots−1.43-5-13-6Raiders−1.46-35-4Titans−1.74-44-4Broncos−1.87-23-5-1Falcons−2.03-64-5Ravens−2.02-6-13-6Lions−2.43-4-12-6Cowboys−2.63-5-15-4Saints−3.33-53-5Colts−5.65-43-6Chargers−8.00-7-12-6Eagles−8.91-80-9
Single games

Where they disagreed most

How to read this chart
Each card is one game.
Market: the team the betting line favored and by how much. Snaps: the team that played better and by how much. Gap: the difference in points.
The strip under each card
places three dots on one scale, all from the home team's side (right of the center tick = home team ahead): white = the betting line, green = the snaps, small amber = the final score. Dots far apart = the game the line expected is not the game that was played.
7@31W5
MarketCHI by 1.5
SnapsGB by 27.4
Gap28.9
6@28W2
MarketLAR by 6.5
SnapsLAR by 33.6
Gap27.1
27@21W7
MarketHOU by 10
SnapsNYG by 15.4
Gap25.4
26@14W1
MarketLAC by 8.5
SnapsARI by 14.4
Gap22.9
17@45W5
MarketNE by 3.5
SnapsNE by 26.3
Gap22.8
34@3W2
MarketCAR by 2.5
SnapsCAR by 24.9
Gap22.4
41@23W1
MarketBAL by 3
SnapsBAL by 25.1
Gap22.1
35@14W3
MarketGB by 4.5
SnapsATL by 16.9
Gap21.4
27@7W1
MarketLAR by 3.5
SnapsSF by 17.3
Gap20.8
6@35W3
MarketJAX by 3
SnapsJAX by 23.6
Gap20.6

line snaps final score, all as the home team's margin.

How sure are we? Across 27 seasons the gap between the snaps and the closing line did not predict covers later in the season. The tool describes a season; it is not a betting signal. The test →

MethodHow this is built
The market
The closing point spread from nflverse, as the home team's expected margin. A team's market rating is its average expected margin across its games.
The snaps
The deserved margin from The Verdict: what each side's net EPA per scrimmage snap is worth in points, with fumble bounces evened out.
The gap
Deserved margin minus the line, from the team's side, averaged. Positive: the team played better than the market priced it. The trend line is the running average week by week.
Against the line
Real results against the spread (wins, losses, pushes), next to the same count using the deserved margin instead of the final score.
Not advice
Everything here looks backwards. A gap can close because the market adjusts, because the team changes, or by chance.