Broncos 23, Chargers 17: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 5 · Sun, Oct 11 · SoFi StadiumFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
DEN	7	3	0	13	23
LAC	0	3	14	0	17

Home · 0-8Los AngelesChargers17

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 7:41 PM ET

The Denver Broncos beat the Los Angeles Chargers 23-17 on Sun, Oct 11 at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA (Week 5, 2026 season). Records after the game: Broncos 7-2, Chargers 0-8. B.Nix (DEN) led all players with +1.7 EPA on 3 carries.

Who won Broncos vs Chargers?

The Denver Broncos won 23-17. By quarter: DEN 7-3-0-13, LAC 0-3-14-0.

Who was the best player in Broncos vs Chargers?

By expected points added: B.Nix (DEN, +1.7 EPA on 3 carries), E.Engram (DEN, +1.6 EPA on 4 targets) and C.Sutton (DEN, +0.7 EPA on 3 targets).

What was the turning point of Broncos vs Chargers?

The biggest swing in win probability (19 points toward the Broncos) came in Q4 at 8:06: (Shotgun) J.Herbert sacked at LAC 24 for -8 yards (Z.Allen). FUMBLES (Z.Allen) [Z.Allen], RECOVERED by DEN-Q.Robinson at LAC 23.

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Broncos 23, Chargers 17: Week 5 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-10-11-den-at-lac (updated 2026-11-11).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 5 issue →

Week 5EarnedGame file →

Broncos33% success · −0.24 EPA/play

2317

Chargers27% success · −0.35 EPA/play

DEN 84% deserveddeserved 16% LAC

Broncos earned it: the snaps said Broncos by 5.6, a deserved win probability of 84%.

Deserved marginDEN by 5.6

Real marginDEN by 6

Luck pts DEN+1.6

Luck pts LAC+0.1

The swingQ4 8:06 · LAC · −21 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 24 for -8 yards (99-Z.Allen). FUMBLES (99-Z.Allen) [99-Z.Allen], RECOVERED by DEN-51-Q.Robinson at LAC 23.

Flags that moved this game

1Defensive Pass InterferenceLAC → helped DEN · Wk 5 Q2 1:21 · (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep left to 17-J.Waddle. PENALTY on LAC-33-D.Leonard, Defensive Pass Interference, 37 yards,…+6.1 WP
2Defensive Pass InterferenceDEN → helped LAC · Wk 5 Q3 3:28 · (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right intended for 13-M.Valdes-Scantling INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Abrams-Draine at LAC 17.…+5.4 WP

Fourth downs our model disagreed with

1DEN · 4th & 1Sean Payton chose Field goal at opp 1, Wk 5 Q4 5:10, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: good.−1.16 EP
2LAC · 4th & 2Jim Harbaugh chose Punt at own 48, Wk 5 Q1 4:12, down 7. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.07 EP
3DEN · 4th & 3Sean Payton chose Punt at opp 47, Wk 5 Q1 10:02, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−0.90 EP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA148 plays, one strand2 lead changes · 6 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewShawn Hochuli16 accepted flags in this game · 14.4 a game this season (about league average)Market vs SnapsLine: DEN by 3.5 · Snaps: DEN by 5.6Broncos covered; the snaps agree

23@17

Week 5

If the 36-yard kick had missed

Chargers after the play14%what really happened

Q4 1:12 3-W.Lutz 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

LAC ▲DEN ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+19%Q4 8:06 · for DEN(Shotgun) J.Herbert sacked at LAC 24 for -8 yards (Z.Allen). FUMBLES (Z.Allen) [Z.Allen], RECOVERED by DEN-Q.Robinson at LAC 23.
+17%Q3 0:57 · for LACK.Vidal left tackle for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Dicker extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Harris, Holder-J.Scott.
+15%Q3 1:15 · for LACB.Nix scrambles up the middle to DEN 41 for 1 yard (A.Mesidor, T.Tuipulotu). FUMBLES (T.Tuipulotu), RECOVERED by LAC-T.Tuipulotu at DEN 42.
+13%Q4 8:53 · for DEN(Shotgun) B.Nix pass short right to C.Sutton for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-M.Fraboni, Holder-J.Crawshaw.
+10%Q3 5:32 · for LACJ.Herbert pass short middle to H.Rucci for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Dicker extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Harris, Holder-J.Scott.Penalty on DEN-Q.Robinson, Defensive Offside, declined.

Every drive, on the field

LAC attacks →← DEN attacks

Q1 15:00PUNT8p · 29y · 5:05
Q1 9:55FUM3p · 19y · 1:19
Q1 8:36TD4p · 40y · 1:43
Q1 6:53PUNT5p · 19y · 2:48
Q1 4:05PUNT3p · -2y · 2:38
Q1 1:27PUNT4p · 3y · 1:35
Q2 14:52PUNT3p · 7y · 1:39
Q2 13:13FG10p · 33y · 4:55
Q2 8:18FG14p · 60y · 6:30
Q2 1:48PUNT3p · 0y · 0:27
Q2 1:21HALF3p · 32y · 1:21
Q3 15:00TD14p · 73y · 9:28
Q3 5:32PUNT3p · 4y · 1:24
Q3 4:08PUNT5p · 10y · 2:53
Q3 1:15FUM1p · 1y · 0:08
Q3 1:07TD1p · 42y · 0:10
Q3 0:57PUNT3p · 4y · 1:08
Q4 14:49PUNT3p · -8y · 1:46
Q4 13:03MISS4p · 3y · 0:58
Q4 12:05DOWNS4p · 9y · 1:38
Q4 10:27TD5p · 41y · 1:34
Q4 8:53FUM2p · -9y · 0:58
Q4 7:55FG5p · 22y · 2:48
Q4 5:07INT4p · 4y · 1:48
Q4 3:19FG5p · 16y · 2:11
Q4 1:08END6p · 23y · 1:08

Broncos12 drives5scoring drives (2 TD)42%drives ending in pointsOWN 43avg starting field position4three-and-outs1turnovers incl. downs

Chargers12 drives3scoring drives (2 TD)25%drives ending in pointsOWN 29avg starting field position2three-and-outs4turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
6:53TouchdownJ.Dobbins left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-M.Fraboni, Holder-J.Crawshaw.7–0
Q2
8:18Field goalC.Dicker 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-J.Harris, Holder-J.Scott.7–3
Q2
1:48Field goalW.Lutz 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-M.Fraboni, Holder-J.Crawshaw.10–3
Q3
5:32TouchdownJ.Herbert pass short middle to H.Rucci for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Dicker extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Harris, Holder-J.Scott.Penalty on DEN-Q.Robinson, Defensive Offside, declined.10–10
Q3
0:57TouchdownK.Vidal left tackle for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Dicker extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Harris, Holder-J.Scott.10–17
Q4
8:53Touchdown(Shotgun) B.Nix pass short right to C.Sutton for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-M.Fraboni, Holder-J.Crawshaw.17–17
Q4
5:07Field goalW.Lutz 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-M.Fraboni, Holder-J.Crawshaw.20–17
Q4
1:08Field goalW.Lutz 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-M.Fraboni, Holder-J.Crawshaw.23–17

Team stats

DENvsLAC

224Total yards237

118Passing yards82

106Rushing yards155

3.9Yards per play3.8

18First downs14

1-12 · 8%Third down5-14 · 36%

1-1Fourth down0-2

2-5Red zone TDs1-1

16/27Comp / att14/24

3.7Yards per carry4.6

1Turnovers3

1 (−5 yds)Sacks allowed5 (−39 yds)

7 for 40Penalties9 for 93

29:07Possession30:53

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play-0.271-0.397

Dropback EPA-0.421-0.508

Rush EPA-0.117-0.286

Success rate33%27%

Explosive plays35

Plays5762

Who moved the needle

B.NixCarries: 3+1.7

E.EngramTargets: 4+1.6

C.SuttonTargets: 3+0.7

K.MitchellTargets: 4+0.6

J.WaddleTargets: 5+0.5

K.VidalCarries: 8+0.3

Cost their side the most

J.HerbertDropbacks: 31-15.8

B.NixDropbacks: 29-12.2

O.HamptonCarries: 14-6.1

Box score

Denver Broncos

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Bo NixQB	16/27	123	4.6	1	0	1-5	28.5	82.8

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
J.K. DobbinsRB	18	68	3.8	1	14
Bo NixQB	4	10	2.5	0	7
Jaylen WaddleWR	1	9	9.0	0	9
RJ HarveyRB	3	7	2.3	0	4
Tyler BadieRB	1	6	6.0	0	6
Adam PrenticeFB	1	3	3.0	0	3
Marvin Mims Jr.WR	1	3	3.0	0	3

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Evan EngramTE	4	4	55	13.8	0	34
Jaylen WaddleWR	2	5	19	9.5	0	10
Courtland SuttonWR	2	3	18	9.0	1	13
Troy FranklinWR	2	2	16	8.0	0	12
Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR	1	2	8	8.0	0	8
J.K. DobbinsRB	2	2	6	3.0	0	3
Marvin Mims Jr.WR	2	2	6	3.0	0	5
RJ HarveyRB	0	1	0	0.0	0	0
Tyler BadieRB	1	1	-5	-5.0	0	-5

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Alex SingletonLB	8	5	0	1	0	0
Justin StrnadLB	8	5	0	1	1	0
Jahdae BarronCB	6	5	0	0	0	0
Ja'Quan McMillianCB	5	3	1	1	0	1
Que RobinsonLB	5	3	0	1	0	0
Nik BonittoLB	4	3	2	3	0	2
Eyioma UwazurikeDE	4	3	0	0	0	0
Dondrea TillmanLB	4	3	0	1	0	1
Brandon JonesS	4	2	0	0	2	0
D.J. JonesDT	4	1	1	1	0	1

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Wil LutzPK	3/4	75.0	36	2/2	11

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Justin HerbertQB	14/24	121	5.0	1	1	5-39	26.7	68.2

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Kimani VidalRB	8	57	7.1	1	42
Justin HerbertQB	6	54	9.0	0	23
Omarion HamptonRB	14	33	2.4	0	11
Keaton MitchellRB	6	11	1.8	0	9

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Charlie KolarTE	3	4	37	12.3	0	19
Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR	2	3	22	11.0	0	13
Keaton MitchellRB	3	4	18	6.0	0	9
Theo Wease Jr.WR	1	1	16	16.0	0	16
Tre' HarrisWR	2	4	16	8.0	0	14
Hayden RucciTE	1	1	7	7.0	1	7
Omarion HamptonRB	1	1	6	6.0	0	6
Oronde GadsdenTE	0	1	0	0.0	0	0
Kimani VidalRB	1	2	-1	-1.0	0	-1

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Akheem MesidorLB	8	5	1	1	0	1
Elijah MoldenCB	7	4	0	0	0	0
Daiyan HenleyLB	6	2	0	0	1	1
Del'Shawn PhillipsLB	6	0	0	0	0	1
Tarheeb StillCB	5	4	0	0	1	0
Tony JeffersonS	5	3	0	0	0	0
Deane LeonardCB	5	3	0	0	0	0
Justin EboigbeDT	4	3	0	0	0	0
Cam HartCB	4	2	0	0	1	0
Tuli TuipulotuLB	4	1	0	0	1	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Cameron DickerPK	1/1	100.0	42	2/2	5

Before kickoff · Regular season through week 4 · rank out of 32

Where it was expected to be decided

1Broncos pass defense vs Chargers dropback offense
The Broncos' pass defense ranks 15th in EPA per dropback (+0.05 allowed, 155 dropbacks faced) and faces a Chargers dropback offense ranked 29th (-0.15, 145 dropbacks).
29thLAC offense14 spots apart15thDEN defense
2Broncos takeaway defense vs Chargers ball security
The Broncos' takeaway defense ranks 17th in turnovers per game (1.0 takeaways a game, 4 games) and faces a Chargers ball security ranked 30th (2.3 giveaways a game, 4 games).
30thLAC offense13 spots apart17thDEN defenseSmall sample, read with care Why sample size matters

When the Broncos have the ballNo big edge

DEN dropback offenseEPA per dropbackLAC pass defense

22nd-0.02145 dropbacks

+0.07 allowed128 dropbacks faced19th

DEN run gameEPA per rushLAC run defense

8th-0.0284 rushes

-0.10 allowed116 rushes faced15th

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Chargers have the ballEdge DEN · +14 ranks

LAC dropback offenseEPA per dropbackDEN pass defense

29th-0.15145 dropbacks

DEN +14

+0.05 allowed155 dropbacks faced15th

LAC run gameEPA per rushDEN run defense

26th-0.17100 rushes

+0.08 allowed106 rushes faced31st

Third downEdge LAC · +9 ranks

DEN third-down offensethird-down conversion rateLAC third-down defense

12th40.4%52 third downs

38.0% allowed50 third downs faced13th

LAC third-down offensethird-down conversion rateDEN third-down defense

18th38.5%52 third downs

LAC +9

48.3% allowed58 third downs faced27th

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneEdge DEN · +8 ranks

DEN red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateLAC red-zone defense

9th70%10 trips

DEN +8

60% allowed15 trips faced17th

LAC red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateDEN red-zone defense

12th64%11 trips

47% allowed15 trips faced6th

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsEdge LAC · +10 ranks

DEN big-play offenseexplosive-play rateLAC defense against big plays

29th7.0%229 plays

LAC +10

9.8% allowed244 plays faced19th

LAC big-play offenseexplosive-play rateDEN defense against big plays

15th9.4%245 plays

LAC +10

10.7% allowed261 plays faced25th

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksNo big edge

DEN pass protectionsack rateLAC pass rush

4th3.4% sacked145 dropbacks

7.8% of dropbacks128 dropbacks faced6th

LAC pass protectionsack rateDEN pass rush

26th8.3% sacked145 dropbacks

5.2% of dropbacks155 dropbacks faced20th

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversEdge DEN · +13 ranks

DEN ball securityturnovers per gameLAC takeaway defense

13th1.0 giveaways a game4 games

LAC +10

1.8 takeaways a game4 games3rd

LAC ball securityturnovers per gameDEN takeaway defense

30th2.3 giveaways a game4 games

DEN +13

1.0 takeaways a game4 games17th

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

Sample: DEN 4 games, 229 offensive and 261 defensive plays · LAC 4 games, 245 offensive and 244 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

Jonah ColemanRB→ J.K. Dobbins

Adam PrenticeFB→ RJ Harvey

Jonathon CooperWLB→ Jonah Elliss

Pat Surtain IILCB→ Kris Abrams-Draine

Riley MossRCB→ Jahdae Barron

JL SkinnerFS→ Brandon Jones

Devon KeySS→ Talanoa Hufanga

Omarion HamptonRB→ Kimani Vidal

Scott MatlockFB→ Keaton Mitchell

Ladd McConkeyWR→ Marquez Valdes-Scantling

Quentin JohnstonWR→ Theo Wease Jr.