Falcons 35, Packers 14: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 3 · Thu, Sep 24 · Lambeau FieldFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
ATL	7	10	7	11	35
GB	7	0	0	7	14

Home · 6-3Green BayPackers14

At a glanceUpdated Nov 11, 2026, 4:56 AM ET

The Atlanta Falcons beat the Green Bay Packers 35-14 on Thu, Sep 24 at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, WI (Week 3, 2026 season). Records after the game: Falcons 3-6, Packers 6-3. D.London (ATL) led all players with +12.3 EPA on 10 targets.

Who won Falcons vs Packers?

The Atlanta Falcons won 35-14. By quarter: ATL 7-10-7-11, GB 7-0-0-7.

Who was the best player in Falcons vs Packers?

By expected points added: D.London (ATL, +12.3 EPA on 10 targets), M.Penix (ATL, +9.5 EPA on 26 dropbacks) and Bi.Robinson (ATL, +8.7 EPA on 29 carries).

What was the turning point of Falcons vs Packers?

The biggest swing in win probability (9 points toward the Falcons) came in Q2 at 0:59: (Shotgun) M.Penix pass short left to A.Hooper for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-L.McCullough, Holder-J.Bailey.

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Falcons 35, Packers 14: Week 3 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-09-24-atl-at-gb (updated 2026-11-11).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 3 issue →

Week 3EarnedGame file →

Falcons65% success · +0.33 EPA/play

3514

Packers40% success · −0.02 EPA/play

ATL >99% deserveddeserved <1% GB

Falcons earned it: the snaps said Falcons by 16.9, a deserved win probability of more than 99%.

Deserved marginATL by 16.9

Real marginATL by 21

Luck pts ATL+0.5

Luck pts GB+1.2

The swingQ1 13:33 · ATL · −11 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short middle intended for 4-J.Dotson INTERCEPTED by 29-X.McKinney at GB 40. 29-X.McKinney to GB 45 for 5 yards (5-D.London).

Flags that moved this game

1Defensive Pass InterferenceATL → helped GB · Wk 3 Q2 4:44 · (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep left to 0-M.Golden. PENALTY on ATL-21-M.Hughes, Defensive Pass Interference, 34 yards,…+8.0 WP
2Unnecessary RoughnessATL → helped GB · Wk 3 Q1 8:21 · (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 32-M.Lloyd pushed ob at ATL 43 for 10 yards (21-M.Hughes). PENALTY on ATL-56-H.Perkins,…+6.6 WP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA147 plays, one strand1 lead change · 10 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewShawn Smith12 accepted flags in this game · 13.3 a game this season (one of the quietest crews)Market vs SnapsLine: GB by 4.5 · Snaps: ATL by 16.9Falcons covered; the snaps agree

35@14

Week 3

If the Packers had converted that fourth-and-1

Packers after the play18%what really happened

Q3 10:02 10-J.Love pass incomplete short right to 9-C.Watson.

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

GB ▲ATL ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+9%Q2 0:59 · for ATL(Shotgun) M.Penix pass short left to A.Hooper for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-L.McCullough, Holder-J.Bailey.
+7%Q1 9:18 · for GB(Shotgun) J.Love pass deep right to M.Golden to ATL 43 for 45 yards (M.Hughes).
+7%Q2 3:47 · for ATLT.Smack 47 yard field goal is BLOCKED (Z.Harrison), Center-M.Orzech, Holder-D.Whelan.
+6%Q1 3:06 · for ATLBi.Robinson left end to GB 5 for 55 yards (Z.Franklin; D.Dennis-Sutton).
+6%Q3 10:02 · for ATLJ.Love pass incomplete short right to C.Watson.

Every drive, on the field

GB attacks →← ATL attacks

Q1 15:00INT4p · 21y · 1:33
Q1 13:27PUNT3p · 1y · 0:54
Q1 12:33PUNT5p · 9y · 2:27
Q1 10:06TD9p · 87y · 4:53
Q1 5:13TD7p · 85y · 3:41
Q1 1:32PUNT3p · 6y · 1:44
Q2 14:48PUNT7p · 42y · 4:14
Q2 10:34PUNT3p · 1y · 0:59
Q2 9:35FG8p · 38y · 4:47
Q2 4:48MISS4p · 39y · 1:06
Q2 3:42TD8p · 63y · 2:43
Q2 0:59PUNT3p · 8y · 0:31
Q2 0:28HALF2p · 0y · 0:28
Q3 15:00DOWNS10p · 63y · 5:04
Q3 9:56TD10p · 92y · 6:18
Q3 3:38PUNT7p · 18y · 2:43
Q3 0:55FG7p · 79y · 4:58
Q4 10:57TD10p · 76y · 2:39
Q4 8:18TD8p · 67y · 4:45
Q4 3:33INT12p · 58y · 2:22
Q4 1:11END2p · -2y · 1:11

Falcons9 drives6scoring drives (4 TD)67%drives ending in pointsOWN 22avg starting field position0three-and-outs1turnovers incl. downs

Packers10 drives2scoring drives (2 TD)20%drives ending in pointsOWN 28avg starting field position4three-and-outs2turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
5:13TouchdownJ.Love pass short middle to C.Watson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. T.Smack extra point is GOOD, Center-M.Orzech, Holder-D.Whelan.0–7
Q1
1:32TouchdownBi.Robinson left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-L.McCullough, Holder-J.Bailey.7–7
Q2
4:48Field goalN.Folk 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-L.McCullough, Holder-J.Bailey.10–7
Q2
0:59Touchdown(Shotgun) M.Penix pass short left to A.Hooper for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-L.McCullough, Holder-J.Bailey.17–7
Q3
3:38TouchdownJ.Taylor reported in as eligible. Br.Robinson left guard for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-L.McCullough, Holder-J.Bailey.24–7
Q4
10:57Field goalN.Folk 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-L.McCullough, Holder-J.Bailey.27–7
Q4
8:18Touchdown(Shotgun) J.Love pass short right to M.Golden for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. T.Smack extra point is GOOD, Center-M.Orzech, Holder-D.Whelan.27–14
Q4
3:33TouchdownC.Levin and M.Jerrell reported in as eligible. Bi.Robinson left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. M.Penix pass to C.Blair is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.35–14

Team stats

ATLvsGB

498Total yards328

256Passing yards311

242Rushing yards17

7.5Yards per play5.2

25First downs18

6-10 · 60%Third down6-15 · 40%

0-0Fourth down2-3

4-5Red zone TDs2-4

18/25Comp / att28/53

5.9Yards per carry1.9

1Turnovers1

0Sacks allowed1 (−1 yds)

6 for 83Penalties6 for 45

37:05Possession22:55

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play+0.332+0.014

Dropback EPA+0.366+0.066

Rush EPA+0.309-0.301

Success rate65%40%

Explosive plays84

Plays6563

Who moved the needle

D.LondonTargets: 10+12.3

M.PenixDropbacks: 26+9.5

Bi.RobinsonCarries: 29+8.7

M.GoldenTargets: 12+4.6

J.LoveDropbacks: 54+3.6

Br.RobinsonCarries: 10+3.3

Cost their side the most

J.DotsonTargets: 3-4.6

J.SmithTargets: 3-3.6

T.KraftTargets: 8-2.0

Box score

Atlanta Falcons

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Michael Penix Jr.QB	18/25	256	10.2	1	1	0-0	88.4	101.4

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Bijan RobinsonRB	29	194	6.7	2	55
Brian Robinson Jr.RB	10	50	5.0	1	16
Michael Penix Jr.QB	2	-2	-1.0	0	-1

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Drake LondonWR	9	10	194	21.6	0	68
Bijan RobinsonRB	2	2	19	9.5	0	17
Austin HooperTE	2	2	11	5.5	1	6
Jahan DotsonWR	1	3	11	11.0	0	11
Olamide ZaccheausWR	2	2	9	4.5	0	5
Zachariah BranchWR	1	2	7	7.0	0	7
Kyle Pitts Sr.TE	1	2	5	5.0	0	5

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
C.J. HendersonCB	8	8	0	0	3	0
Mike HughesCB	7	6	0	0	0	0
Xavier WattsS	5	3	0	0	1	0
Nick MuseTE	4	2	0	0	0	0
Harold Perkins Jr.LB	4	2	0	0	0	0
Jessie Bates IIIS	4	1	0	0	1	0
Kendal DanielsLB	3	2	0	1	0	0
Chris BlairWR	2	2	0	0	0	0
Cameron ThomasDE	2	1	1	1	0	4
Divine DeabloLB	2	1	0	0	1	1

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Nick FolkPK	2/2	100.0	44	3/3	9

Green Bay Packers

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Jordan LoveQB	28/53	312	5.9	2	1	1-1	42.0	75.4

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
MarShawn LloydRB	4	11	2.8	6
Kaleb JohnsonRB	4	6	1.5	5
Jordan LoveQB	1	0	0.0	0

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Matthew GoldenWR	5	12	100	20.0	1	45
Christian WatsonWR	7	10	96	13.7	1	34
Skyy MooreWR	3	7	31	10.3	0	12
Tucker KraftTE	4	8	26	6.5	0	9
J. Michael SturdivantWR	3	3	22	7.3	0	10
Jonnu SmithTE	2	3	16	8.0	0	9
Kaleb JohnsonRB	1	3	10	10.0	0	10
MarShawn LloydRB	2	3	7	3.5	0	10
Chris BrooksRB	1	1	4	4.0	0	4
Bo MeltonWR	0	1	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	TFL	PD
Evan WilliamsS	10	4	0	0
Zaire FranklinLB	10	3	1	0
Brandon CisseCB	7	4	0	0
Javon BullardS	7	3	1	0
Keisean NixonCB	6	3	0	0
Edgerrin CooperLB	6	2	1	0
Xavier McKinneyS	5	4	0	1
Devonte WyattDT	4	2	0	0
Isaiah McDuffieLB	4	1	1	0
Brenton Cox Jr.DE	4	1	1	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Trey SmackPK	0/1	0.0	0	2/2	2

Before kickoff · Regular season through week 2 · rank out of 32

Where it was expected to be decided

1Packers pass rush vs Falcons pass protection
The Packers' pass rush ranks 5th in sack rate (8.9% of dropbacks, 79 dropbacks faced) and faces a Falcons pass protection ranked 29th (10.8% sacked, 65 dropbacks).
29thATL offense24 spots apart5thGB defense
2Packers defense against big plays vs Falcons big-play offense
The Packers' defense against big plays ranks 2nd in explosive-play rate (3.8% allowed, 130 plays faced) and faces a Falcons big-play offense ranked 25th (7.3%, 124 plays).
25thATL offense23 spots apart2ndGB defense
3Packers pass defense vs Falcons dropback offense
The Packers' pass defense ranks 17th in EPA per dropback (+0.08 allowed, 79 dropbacks faced) and faces a Falcons dropback offense ranked 32nd (-0.65, 65 dropbacks).
32ndATL offense15 spots apart17thGB defense

When the Falcons have the ballEdge GB · +15 ranks

ATL dropback offenseEPA per dropbackGB pass defense

32nd-0.6565 dropbacks

GB +15

+0.08 allowed79 dropbacks faced17th

ATL run gameEPA per rushGB run defense

18th-0.1359 rushes

GB +12

-0.30 allowed51 rushes faced6th

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Packers have the ballEdge ATL · +21 ranks

GB dropback offenseEPA per dropbackATL pass defense

26th-0.0878 dropbacks

ATL +12

-0.02 allowed82 dropbacks faced14th

GB run gameEPA per rushATL run defense

31st-0.4339 rushes

ATL +21

-0.22 allowed38 rushes faced10th

Third downEdge ATL · +21 ranks

ATL third-down offensethird-down conversion rateGB third-down defense

30th24.0%25 third downs

54.5% allowed33 third downs faced28th

GB third-down offensethird-down conversion rateATL third-down defense

32nd19.0%21 third downs

ATL +21

34.6% allowed26 third downs faced11th

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneEdge ATL · +15 ranks

GB red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateATL red-zone defense

25th43%7 trips

ATL +15

50% allowed8 trips faced10th

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsEdge GB · +23 ranks

ATL big-play offenseexplosive-play rateGB defense against big plays

25th7.3%124 plays

GB +23

3.8% allowed130 plays faced2nd

GB big-play offenseexplosive-play rateATL defense against big plays

14th10.3%117 plays

8.3% allowed120 plays faced10th

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksEdge GB · +24 ranks

ATL pass protectionsack rateGB pass rush

29th10.8% sacked65 dropbacks

GB +24

8.9% of dropbacks79 dropbacks faced5th

GB pass protectionsack rateATL pass rush

26th9.0% sacked78 dropbacks

4.9% of dropbacks82 dropbacks faced24th

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversEdge GB · +9 ranks

ATL ball securityturnovers per gameGB takeaway defense

32nd3.5 giveaways a game2 games

GB +9

0.5 takeaways a game2 games23rd

GB ball securityturnovers per gameATL takeaway defense

21st1.5 giveaways a game2 games

0.5 takeaways a game2 games23rd

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

Sample: ATL 2 games, 124 offensive and 120 defensive plays · GB 2 games, 117 offensive and 130 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

Corey LevinC→ Ryan Neuzil

Kendal DanielsLILB→ Harold Perkins Jr.

James Pearce Jr.SLB→ Za'Darius Smith

A.J. Terrell Jr.LCB→ Mike Hughes

Sydney BrownNB→ Billy Bowman Jr.

DeMarcco HellamsSS→ Jessie Bates III

MarShawn LloydRB→ Chris Brooks

Savion WilliamsWR→ Skyy Moore

Aaron BanksLG→ Jager Burton

Travis GloverRG→ Jacob Monk

Chris McClellanNT→ Javon Hargrave