Vikings 23, Buccaneers 16: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 3 · Sun, Sep 27 · Raymond James StadiumFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
MIN	10	7	0	6	23
TB	7	3	3	3	16

Home · 3-6Tampa BayBuccaneers16

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 8:46 PM ET

The Minnesota Vikings beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23-16 on Sun, Sep 27 at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL (Week 3, 2026 season). Records after the game: Vikings 6-2, Buccaneers 3-6. C.Otton (TB) led all players with +3.5 EPA on 6 targets.

Who won Vikings vs Buccaneers?

The Minnesota Vikings won 23-16. By quarter: MIN 10-7-0-6, TB 7-3-3-3.

Who was the best player in Vikings vs Buccaneers?

By expected points added: C.Otton (TB, +3.5 EPA on 6 targets), T.Hurst (TB, +2.5 EPA on 3 targets) and J.Addison (MIN, +0.5 EPA on 9 targets).

What was the turning point of Vikings vs Buccaneers?

The biggest swing in win probability (15 points toward the Vikings) came in Q2 at 4:11: Jordan Addison 41 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Will Reichard Kick)

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Vikings 23, Buccaneers 16: Week 3 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-09-27-min-at-tb (updated 2026-11-11).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 3 issue →

Week 3Coin flipGame file →

Vikings24% success · −0.26 EPA/play

2316

Buccaneers27% success · −0.25 EPA/play

MIN 51% deserveddeserved 49% TB

Vikings earned it: the snaps said Vikings by 0.1, a deserved win probability of 51%.

Deserved marginMIN by 0.1

Real marginMIN by 7

Luck pts MIN−1.4

Luck pts TB−2.6

The swingQ1 9:00 · TB · −18 pts of win probability. 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to MIN 14, Center-86-E.Deckers. 4-M.Price for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on MIN, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

Flags that moved this game

1Unnecessary RoughnessMIN → helped TB · Wk 3 Q4 10:49 · (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 2-E.Egbuka to TB 46 for 10 yards (44-J.Metellus; 7-B.Murphy). PENALTY on…+15.3 WP
2Offensive HoldingTB → helped MIN · Wk 3 Q4 12:02 · (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield scrambles up the middle to MIN 30 for 14 yards (51-B.Cashman). PENALTY on TB-87-P.Durham, Offensive…+7.2 WP

Fourth downs our model disagreed with

1TB · 4th & 2Todd Bowles chose Punt at own 33, Wk 3 Q1 1:16, down 3. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.69 EP
2TB · 4th & 4Todd Bowles chose Punt at own 46, Wk 3 Q2 12:19, down 3. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.39 EP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA153 plays, one strand0 lead changes · 8 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewScott Novak17 accepted flags in this game · 18.2 a game this season (one of the busiest crews)Market vs SnapsLine: MIN by 1.5 · Snaps: MIN by 0.1Vikings covered; the snaps say Buccaneers should have

23@16

Week 3Changes the winner

If the 56-yard kick had missed

Buccaneers after the play28%what really happened

Q4 3:15 16-W.Reichard 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

TB ▲MIN ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+15%Q2 4:11 · for MINJordan Addison 41 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Will Reichard Kick)
+14%Q4 10:49 · for TB(Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass short right to E.Egbuka to TB 46 for 10 yards (J.Metellus; B.Murphy).PENALTY on MIN-J.Metellus, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at TB 46.
+13%Q1 8:43 · for MINR.Dixon punts 41 yards to MIN 14, Center-E.Deckers. M.Price for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN.PENALTY on MIN, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. W.Reichard extra point is GOOD, Center-A.DePaola, Holder-J.Hekker.
+13%Q4 3:10 · for MINW.Reichard 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-A.DePaola, Holder-J.Hekker.
+12%Q4 6:08 · for MIN(Shotgun) A.Jones up the middle to TB 32 for 3 yards (K.Scott).

Every drive, on the field

TB attacks →← MIN attacks

Q1 15:00FG7p · 40y · 4:40
Q1 10:20PUNT 3p · 5y · 1:37
Q1 8:43TD5p · 80y · 1:59
Q1 6:44PUNT6p · 13y · 4:19
Q1 2:25PUNT3p · 8y · 1:16
Q1 1:09PUNT3p · -2y · 2:20
Q2 13:49PUNT3p · 6y · 1:38
Q2 12:11PUNT3p · -3y · 2:05
Q2 10:06FG7p · 42y · 4:33
Q2 5:33TD4p · 73y · 1:22
Q2 4:11PUNT6p · 10y · 2:32
Q2 1:39PUNT3p · 6y · 0:43
Q2 0:56PUNT5p · 17y · 0:56
Q3 15:00PUNT5p · 12y · 2:39
Q3 12:21PUNT4p · 17y · 2:02
Q3 10:19PUNT3p · 5y · 0:55
Q3 9:24INT3p · -1y · 0:49
Q3 8:35FG4p · 2y · 1:23
Q3 7:12PUNT3p · 1y · 1:14
Q3 5:58PUNT3p · -20y · 3:01
Q3 2:57PUNT3p · 3y · 1:37
Q3 1:20PUNT3p · 6y · 2:03
Q4 14:17PUNT3p · 5y · 0:54
Q4 13:23FG8p · 30y · 4:21
Q4 9:02FG11p · 17y · 5:52
Q4 3:10INT5p · 10y · 1:31
Q4 1:39FG5p · 16y · 1:06
Q4 0:33INT4p · 9y · 0:33

Vikings13 drives4scoring drives (1 TD)31%drives ending in pointsOWN 29avg starting field position6three-and-outs1turnovers incl. downs

Buccaneers15 drives5scoring drives (2 TD)33%drives ending in pointsOWN 32avg starting field position6three-and-outs2turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
10:20Field goalW.Reichard 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-A.DePaola, Holder-J.Hekker.3–0
Q1
8:43TouchdownR.Dixon punts 41 yards to MIN 14, Center-E.Deckers. M.Price for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN.PENALTY on MIN, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. W.Reichard extra point is GOOD, Center-A.DePaola, Holder-J.Hekker.10–0
Q1
6:44Touchdown(Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass deep middle to T.Hurst for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-E.Deckers, Holder-R.Dixon.10–7
Q2
5:33Field goalC.McLaughlin 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-E.Deckers, Holder-R.Dixon.10–10
Q2
4:11TouchdownJordan Addison 41 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Will Reichard Kick)17–10
Q3
7:12Field goalC.McLaughlin 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-E.Deckers, Holder-R.Dixon.17–13
Q4
9:02Field goalC.McLaughlin 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-E.Deckers, Holder-R.Dixon.17–16
Q4
3:10Field goalW.Reichard 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-A.DePaola, Holder-J.Hekker.20–16
Q4
0:33Field goal W.Reichard 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-A.DePaola, Holder-J.Hekker.23–16

Team stats

MINvsTB

230Total yards243

152Passing yards186

78Rushing yards57

4.2Yards per play3.8

9First downs11

2-15 · 13%Third down2-17 · 12%

1-1Fourth down0-2

0-0Red zone TDs0-2

15/29Comp / att17/37

3.4Yards per carry2.7

1Turnovers2

3 (−16 yds)Sacks allowed6 (−31 yds)

9 for 95Penalties8 for 81

29:03Possession30:57

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play-0.264-0.246

Dropback EPA-0.304-0.231

Rush EPA-0.199-0.284

Success rate24%27%

Explosive plays53

Plays5564

Who moved the needle

C.OttonTargets: 6+3.5

T.HurstTargets: 3+2.5

J.AddisonTargets: 9+0.5

J.DanielsDropbacks: 4-0.3

B.IrvingTargets: 4-0.4

E.EgbukaTargets: 9-0.5

Cost their side the most

K.MurrayDropbacks: 34-10.3

B.MayfieldDropbacks: 42-10.3

K.GainwellTargets: 5-3.0

Box score

Minnesota Vikings

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Kyler MurrayQB	15/29	168	5.8	1	1	3-16	28.6	66.5

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
Aaron Jones Sr.RB	17	58	3.4	14
Kyler MurrayQB	2	17	8.5	12
DeeJay DallasRB	1	2	2.0	2
Demond ClaiborneRB	3	1	0.3	3

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Jordan AddisonWR	5	9	90	18.0	1	41
Aaron Jones Sr.RB	5	6	34	6.8	0	12
Justin JeffersonWR	2	2	32	16.0	0	22
T.J. HockensonTE	2	4	11	5.5	0	6
Jauan JenningsWR	1	2	1	1.0	0	1
Tai FeltonWR	0	2	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Eric WilsonLB	10	6	1.5	2	1	2
Joshua MetellusS	9	4	0.5	0	1	1
James PierreCB	8	5	0	0	0	0
Blake CashmanLB	8	3	1	1	1	2
Isaiah RodgersCB	6	2	0	0	1	0
Kyle Van NoyLB	5	3	1.5	3	0	2
Dallas TurnerLB	3	2	0.5	0	0	1
Tyrion Ingram-DawkinsDE	3	2	0	0	1	0
Andrew Van GinkelLB	3	0	0.5	0	1	2
Ivan Pace Jr.LB	3	0	0.5	0	0	2

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Will ReichardPK	3/3	100.0	56	2/2	11

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Baker MayfieldQB	17/34	217	6.4	1	1	6-31	19.5	67.9
Jalon DanielsQB	0/3	0	0.0	0	1	0-0	32.3	0.0

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
Bucky IrvingRB	15	46	3.1	8
Jalon DanielsQB	1	9	9.0	9
Baker MayfieldQB	2	6	3.0	4
Kenny GainwellRB	3	-4	-1.3	6

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Emeka EgbukaWR	5	9	62	12.4	0	21
Cade OttonTE	3	6	56	18.7	0	37
Ted Hurst IIIWR	1	4	40	40.0	1	40
Chris Godwin Jr.WR	3	4	25	8.3	0	13
Kenny GainwellRB	2	5	14	7.0	0	13
Bucky IrvingRB	2	4	12	6.0	0	8
Tez JohnsonWR	1	2	8	8.0	0	8
Payne DurhamTE	0	1	0	0.0	0	0
Jalen McMillanWR	0	1	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Jacob ParrishCB	5	4	0	0	0	0
Keionte ScottCB	5	4	0	0	1	0
Tykee SmithS	5	3	0	0	0	0
Alex AnzaloneLB	5	2	1	1	0	1
Antoine Winfield Jr.S	5	1	0	0	0	0
Vita VeaDT	4	1	0	0	2	1
SirVocea DennisLB	4	1	0	0	0	0
David WalkerLB	3	2	1	2	0	1
Christian RozeboomLB	3	1	0	0	0	0
A'Shawn RobinsonDT	3	0	0	0	1	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Chase McLaughlinPK	3/3	100.0	54	1/1	10

Before kickoff · Regular season through week 2 · rank out of 32

Where it was expected to be decided

1Vikings pass rush vs Buccaneers pass protection
The Vikings' pass rush ranks 4th in sack rate (9.2% of dropbacks, 87 dropbacks faced) and faces a Buccaneers pass protection ranked 28th (9.2% sacked, 76 dropbacks).
28thTB offense24 spots apart4thMIN defense
2Vikings pass defense vs Buccaneers dropback offense
The Vikings' pass defense ranks 13th in EPA per dropback (-0.04 allowed, 87 dropbacks faced) and faces a Buccaneers dropback offense ranked 30th (-0.26, 76 dropbacks).
30thTB offense17 spots apart13thMIN defense

When the Vikings have the ballEdge TB · +8 ranks

MIN dropback offenseEPA per dropbackTB pass defense

19th+0.0455 dropbacks

+0.13 allowed72 dropbacks faced19th

MIN run gameEPA per rushTB run defense

19th-0.1455 rushes

TB +8

-0.21 allowed43 rushes faced11th

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Buccaneers have the ballEdge MIN · +17 ranks

TB dropback offenseEPA per dropbackMIN pass defense

30th-0.2676 dropbacks

MIN +17

-0.04 allowed87 dropbacks faced13th

TB run gameEPA per rushMIN run defense

6th+0.0437 rushes

-0.34 allowed49 rushes faced4th

Third downEdge MIN · +11 ranks

MIN third-down offensethird-down conversion rateTB third-down defense

13th44.4%27 third downs

MIN +11

48.1% allowed27 third downs faced24th

TB third-down offensethird-down conversion rateMIN third-down defense

10th46.2%26 third downs

29.6% allowed27 third downs faced7th

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneEdge MIN · +24 ranks

MIN red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateTB red-zone defense

10th67%6 trips

38% allowed8 trips faced7th

TB red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateMIN red-zone defense

27th38%8 trips

MIN +24

14% allowed7 trips faced3rd

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsEdge TB · +22 ranks

MIN big-play offenseexplosive-play rateTB defense against big plays

30th5.5%110 plays

TB +22

7.8% allowed115 plays faced8th

TB big-play offenseexplosive-play rateMIN defense against big plays

21st8.8%113 plays

12.5% allowed136 plays faced27th

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksEdge MIN · +24 ranks

MIN pass protectionsack rateTB pass rush

31st10.9% sacked55 dropbacks

4.2% of dropbacks72 dropbacks faced28th

TB pass protectionsack rateMIN pass rush

28th9.2% sacked76 dropbacks

MIN +24

9.2% of dropbacks87 dropbacks faced4th

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversEdge MIN · +26 ranks

MIN ball securityturnovers per gameTB takeaway defense

4th0.5 giveaways a game2 games

MIN +19

0.5 takeaways a game2 games23rd

TB ball securityturnovers per gameMIN takeaway defense

29th2.5 giveaways a game2 games

MIN +26

2.0 takeaways a game2 games3rd

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

Sample: MIN 2 games, 110 offensive and 136 defensive plays · TB 2 games, 113 offensive and 115 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

Kirk CousinsQB→ Kyler Murray

Jordan MasonRB→ Aaron Jones Sr.

Justin JeffersonWR→ Tai Felton

Joe HuberLG→ Donovan Jackson

Caleb BanksNT→ Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins

Rueben Bain Jr.WLB→ Al-Quadin Muhammad

Josiah TrotterRILB→ Yaya Diaby

David WalkerSLB→ Christian Rozeboom

Benjamin MorrisonRCB→ Keionte Scott

AwayVikings1 questionable · 5 changes