Pigskin Nightly
More
GamedayScores & liveEvery game, live field, drive chartVideoHighlights for every gameStartersProjected, last game, confirmedInjury reportWho is out this weekTravel & restMiles, time zones, short weeks
AnalyticsThe VerdictWho deserved to win, graded weeklyEPA mapEvery offense and defenseWith / WithoutTeam splits when a starter sitsMilestone WatchCareer marks within reachCompare playersSide by side, every numberDFS researchDefense vs position, usage, totalsFree widgetsLive scores and stats for your siteGlossaryWhat every number means
The LabAll Lab toolsOriginal tools, built from every snapDeserved StandingsThe table the snaps would have builtSliding DoorsThe play that could have flipped itClock IQEvery staff against the clockRef Crew ReportEvery officiating crew, in numbersMarket vs SnapsWhere the line and the tape disagreeScheme DNAEvery playbook's fingerprintGame DNAEvery game drawn as one strandPaid vs PlayedEvery contract against the fieldLoudest StadiumsCrowd noise, measured since 1999Turf vs GrassInjuries by playing surfaceWeather LedgerReal weather, every game since 2000Line MovementOpening vs closing, every game since 2023
ClubsStandingsDivisions and playoff seedsPlayoff odds10,000 simulated seasonsStrength of scheduleThe road left for all 32All 32 teamsHubs, depth charts, snapsRostersEvery player, every teamNewsroomThe 32 club desksHow we writeOur editorial standards
Week 10
Latest
Pittsburgh SteelersAsked and Answered: Nov. 10New York GiantsGiants Now: Michael Strahan offers high praise of Arvell ReesePhiladelphia EaglesAAA Official Review: What did the Eagles, Joe Milton learn from the QB's first start?Buffalo Bills'There's no panic' | The Bills stay strong through early struggles and injuries in MNF win over the Minnesota VikingsESPNVikings left at QB crossroads after Carson Wentz's poor MNF showing vs. BillsBroncos DeskBroncos are 7-2, but the snaps say 4.1 wins and the 11th seed in the conference5 h agoInjuryByron Murphy Jr.: Active → Cleared5 h agoMinnesota VikingsVikings Defense Limits Bills Below AveragesMinnesota VikingsO'Connell: Vikings Have to 'Improve Offensively at Rapid Pace'InjuryBlake Cashman: Active → Cleared6 h agoVikings DeskVikings go 0-for-8 on third down and never get a receiver open in a 23-6 loss to Bills6 h agoInjuryWill Reichard: Active → Cleared6 h agoBills DeskJosh Allen's picks and sacks didn't matter: Bills force three turnovers in Minneapolis6 h agoPro Football RumorsSeahawks Interested In Adding WR DepthInjuryGreg Dortch: Active → Cleared6 h agoESPNJosh Allen and the Bills move to 7-1 with a 23-6 win over the sputtering VikingsBuffalo BillsBills 23 , Vikings 6 | Final Score, recap + highlightsMinnesota VikingsVikings vs. Bills Game Observations: Offense's Misfires & Turnovers Add UpInjuryCarl Granderson: Active → Cleared7 h agoESPNJosh Allen, Bills outlast Vikings 23-6 on MNFESPNJosh Allen leads Bills to win over tough Vikings' defenseESPNCarson Beck next man up for Cardinals
WSH ThuNYG NE SunDET BUF SunNYJ CAR SunNO HOU SunCLE JAX SunTEN KC SunATL MIA SunIND MIN SunGB LAR SunARI SEA SunLV SF SunDAL PIT SunCIN LAC MonBAL
The Verdict2026 · NFC West · through Week 9

Rams logoLos Angeles RamsThe Verdict

Rams are 5-4; the play says 6.6 wins. That record is 1.6 wins behind how they have played, the kind of gap that usually closes in their favor. They are 2-3 in one-score games. On fourth down, Sean McVay kicked away 7 of 13 situations our model called a go.

This week's issueLeague Luck IndexHow we judge
Luck wins · 30th of 32−1.65-4 real · 6.6 deserved · 5.4 Pythagorean
Luck points · 31st of 32−11.8fumble bounces −11.8 · opponents' kicks 0.0
Chicken Index · 16th of 3254%Sean McVay · 8.3 expected points lost on 44 graded calls
Flags net · 31st of 32−62.6 WP71 flags for 599 yards against · 53 drawn

Every game, judged

Robbed 1× · latest first

Bottom line1 of these 9 games went against the play. The biggest: LAR @ DEN, where the Rams lost with a 71% deserved win probability. 1 more were coin flips.

How to read this chart
Each card is one game.
Under each team: its success rate (share of snaps that kept the offense on schedule) and EPA per play (expected points added: how much each snap improved its scoring chances; 0 is average).
The split bar is the deserved win probability:
how often each team would win if the game were replayed from the same snaps. Away team on the left, home team on the right, 50-50 at the tick in the middle. The longer side played better.
The stamp is the ruling.
Earned: the winner also played better. Coin flip: the winner deserved it less than 60% of the time. Robbed: the loser deserved to win at least 70% of the time (when this team won one of those, it reads Lucky).
Luck pts
(full cards): real margin minus deserved margin; plus means the scoreboard was kinder than the play.
Week 8EarnedGame file →
Chargers logoChargers28% success · −0.45 EPA/play
924
Rams logoRams45% success · −0.07 EPA/play

Rams earned it: the snaps said Rams by 18.3, a deserved win probability of more than 99%.

Deserved marginLAR by 18.3
Real marginLAR by 15
Luck pts LAC−0.3
Luck pts LAR−1.0

The swingQ1 7:22 · LAC · −21 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right intended for 88-C.Kolar INTERCEPTED by 37-Q.Lake at LA 36. 37-Q.Lake to LAC 19 for 45 yards (1-Q.Johnston). Penalty on LAC-15-L.McConkey, Offensive Pass Interference, declined.

The luck sheet

All 32 →
One-score games2-3Decided by 8 points or fewer. Over a season teams win about half of these.
Fumble bounces−11.8 ptsKept 2 of 7 own fumbles; won 2 of 7 by opponents. League offenses keep 53%.
Opponents' kicks0.0 ptsOpponents made 23 of 26 field goals against an expected 22.9, and 10 of 11 extra points.
Own kicking−7.4 ptsMade 9 of 13 field goals against 11.5 expected by distance. Skill, not luck: not in the luck total.
Net EPA per play+0.1913rd of 32 · offense minus defense, passes and runs
Our picks on them4-4Our pregame model in Rams games. All receipts

Coach on trial

Sean McVay · 44 graded fourth downs · went for it 14×

Bottom lineThe calls against the model in this list cost 7.1 expected points in total.

How to read this chart
Each row is one fourth down:
distance, spot, score, what the coach chose and what our model would have done (a clear call, a lean or a toss-up).
The number on the right
is what the choice cost in expected points (EP, what a possession is worth on average from that spot): −1.00 means about a point thrown away. ✓ = the coach made the model's call.
The result
is what happened next; the grade judges the decision, not the outcome.
  1. 1LAR · 4th & 1Sean McVay chose Punt at own 44, Wk 6 Q1 13:44, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.52 EP
  2. 2LAR · 4th & 1Sean McVay chose Punt at own 26, Wk 1 Q1 13:38, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.18 EP
  3. 3LAR · 4th & 2Sean McVay chose Punt at own 43, Wk 6 Q1 4:17, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−0.91 EP
  4. 4LAR · 4th & 8Sean McVay chose Go for it at opp 36, Wk 4 Q4 14:16, down 10. Model: Field goal (clear call). Result: stopped.−0.83 EP
  5. 5LAR · 4th & 2Sean McVay chose Punt at own 36, Wk 8 Q2 8:34, down 3. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.74 EP
  6. 6LAR · 4th & 2Sean McVay chose Punt at own 35, Wk 4 Q2 8:49, down 3. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.72 EP
  7. 7LAR · 4th & 2Sean McVay chose Punt at own 28, Wk 9 Q2 9:13, down 7. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.62 EP
  8. 8LAR · 4th & 2Sean McVay chose Field goal at opp 11, Wk 8 Q1 5:45, tied. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: good.−0.59 EP

Brave and right

  1. 1LAR · 4th & 1Sean McVay chose Go for it at own 49, Wk 4 Q3 10:40, down 10. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
  2. 2LAR · 4th & 1Sean McVay chose Go for it at opp 39, Wk 5 Q1 8:00, down 3. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
  3. 3LAR · 4th & 1Sean McVay chose Go for it at opp 1, Wk 1 Q3 3:46, down 10. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: stopped.✓ EP
  4. 4LAR · 4th & 2Sean McVay chose Go for it at own 44, Wk 9 Q2 4:39, down 7. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
How to read this chart
Every fourth down this season.
Go EP, Punt EP and FG EP are the expected points of each option from that spot: the highest is the model's call.
Cost:
how many expected points the coach's choice gave up against the best one; ✓ = he made the best call. Late-game and lopsided situations are listed but not graded.
SituationWkChoiceModelGo EPPunt EPFG EPCostResult
4th & 1 · opp 29 · Q1 5:189Go for itGo for it2.75–2.11✓converted
4th & 7 · opp 14 · Q1 2:139Field goalField goal2.08–2.82✓good
4th & 6 · own 24 · Q2 12:339PuntPunt-1.80-1.38–✓punted
4th & 2 · own 28 · Q2 9:139PuntGo for it-0.54-1.16–−0.62punted
4th & 2 · own 44 · Q2 4:399Go for itGo for it0.45-0.49–✓converted
4th & 3 · opp 38 · Q2 1:339Go for itnot graded1.21-0.131.03converted
4th & 2 · opp 2 · Q2 0:059Field goalnot graded3.29–2.95good
4th & 4 · own 41 · Q3 7:409PuntGo for it (toss-up)-0.36-0.59–−0.24punted
4th & 9 · own 33 · Q4 5:409PuntPunt-1.55-0.92–✓punted
4th & 11 · own 49 · Q4 0:599Puntnot graded-0.69-0.35–punted
4th & 13 · own 8 · Q1 8:478PuntPunt-3.56-2.44–✓punted
4th & 2 · opp 11 · Q1 5:458Field goalGo for it3.47–2.87−0.59good
4th & 13 · own 17 · Q2 13:278PuntPunt-2.90-1.80–✓punted
4th & 2 · own 36 · Q2 8:348PuntGo for it-0.04-0.79–−0.74punted
4th & 15 · own 32 · Q3 6:318PuntPunt-1.98-0.96–✓punted
4th & 7 · own 37 · Q4 12:208Puntnot graded-1.09-0.75–punted
4th & 1 · opp 38 · Q4 0:258Go for itnot graded2.15-0.131.03converted
4th & 13 · own 17 · Q1 11:577PuntPunt-2.90-1.80–✓punted
4th & 12 · own 25 · Q3 13:397Puntnot graded-2.29-1.32–punted
4th & 12 · opp 45 · Q3 2:347Puntnot graded-0.37-0.22-0.16punted
4th & 1 · own 44 · Q1 13:446PuntGo for it1.02-0.49–−1.52punted
4th & 21 · opp 26 · Q1 9:476Field goalField goal0.67–2.34✓good
4th & 2 · own 43 · Q1 4:176PuntGo for it0.39-0.52–−0.91punted
4th & 6 · own 27 · Q2 5:286PuntPunt-1.60-1.21–✓punted
4th & 1 · opp 27 · Q3 2:446Go for itGo for it2.89–2.27✓stopped
4th & 8 · opp 44 · Q4 3:236Go for itnot graded-0.01-0.200.02stopped
4th & 1 · opp 39 · Q1 8:005Go for itGo for it2.09-0.140.88✓converted
4th & 5 · opp 32 · Q1 5:405Field goalField goal1.15-0.111.82✓missed
4th & 9 · opp 43 · Q2 2:005PuntField goal (toss-up)-0.04-0.190.20−0.39punted
4th & 6 · opp 40 · Q3 11:505Go for itField goal (toss-up)0.48-0.150.71−0.24converted
4th & 4 · own 13 · Q3 6:565PuntPunt (toss-up)-2.17-2.07–✓punted
4th & 5 · opp 30 · OT 4:165Field goalnot graded1.28-0.112.02blocked
4th & 12 · opp 22 · Q1 2:124Field goalField goal1.11–2.57✓good
4th & 2 · own 35 · Q2 8:494PuntGo for it-0.11-0.83–−0.72punted
4th & 10 · own 7 · Q2 6:424PuntPunt-3.43-2.52–✓punted
4th & 5 · own 40 · Q3 13:204PuntGo for it (toss-up)-0.62-0.63–−0.01punted
4th & 1 · own 49 · Q3 10:404Go for itGo for it1.33-0.35–✓converted
4th & 7 · opp 29 · Q3 7:204Field goalField goal1.06–2.11✓missed
4th & 18 · own 24 · Q3 3:214Puntnot graded-2.63-1.38–punted
4th & 8 · opp 36 · Q4 14:164Go for itField goal0.49-0.121.32−0.83stopped
4th & 9 · opp 47 · Q1 11:053PuntPunt (toss-up)-0.29-0.26-0.53✓punted
4th & 4 · opp 35 · Q1 7:303Go for itField goal1.15-0.111.46−0.31converted
4th & 12 · opp 18 · Q2 13:213Field goalField goal1.62–2.72✓good
4th & 11 · opp 16 · Q2 4:463Field goalField goal1.80–2.78✓good
4th & 7 · own 13 · Q3 13:043PuntPunt-2.69-2.07–✓punted
4th & 32 · own 12 · Q3 5:223PuntPunt-3.79-2.14–✓punted
4th & 19 · own 32 · Q4 14:503PuntPunt-2.12-0.96–✓punted
4th & 15 · opp 30 · Q4 8:443Field goalField goal0.44-0.112.02✓good
4th & 5 · own 15 · Q1 9:582PuntPunt-2.24-1.93–✓punted
4th & 10 · own 33 · Q3 13:222PuntPunt-1.63-0.92–✓punted
4th & 13 · opp 43 · Q3 0:072Puntnot graded-0.30-0.190.20punted
4th & 1 · own 26 · Q1 13:381PuntGo for it-0.08-1.27–−1.18punted
4th & 6 · own 40 · Q1 3:251PuntPunt (toss-up)-0.77-0.63–✓punted
4th & 13 · own 48 · Q2 2:541PuntPunt-0.86-0.37–✓punted
4th & 1 · opp 1 · Q3 3:461Go for itGo for it4.12–2.95✓stopped
4th & 5 · opp 49 · Q4 7:581Go for itnot graded0.07-0.30–stopped
4th & 2 · opp 37 · Q4 2:001Go for itnot graded1.64-0.121.18converted

Flags against

Ledger →

Bottom lineThe biggest here: Unnecessary Roughness on LA in Week 6, worth +24 points of win probability to ARI.

How to read this chart
Each row is one flag:
the team in red was penalized, the team in green was helped.
The number on the right
is how much that flag moved the helped team's chance of winning, in points (100 = a whole game). When the play still counted, the play is included, so treat it as an upper bound.
Touchdown erased
marks a score wiped off by the flag, with the expected points it cost.
  1. 1Unnecessary RoughnessLA → helped ARI · Wk 6 Q4 0:47 · (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep middle to 86-J.Brooks to LA 44 for 21 yards (30-J.Wallace). PENALTY on LA-30-J.Wallace,…+24.1 WP
  2. 2Defensive HoldingLA → helped BUF · Wk 5 Q3 3:49 · (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right end to LA 4 for 9 yards (5-K.Kinchens). PENALTY on LA-30-J.Wallace, Defensive Holding, 2…+10.9 WP
  3. 3Illegal Use of HandsLA → helped DEN · Wk 3 Q4 1:01 · (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short left to 1-E.Engram (37-Q.Lake). PENALTY on LA-37-Q.Lake, Illegal Use of Hands, 3 yards,…+10.2 WP
  4. 4Defensive Pass InterferenceLA → helped DEN · Wk 3 Q4 1:15 · (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right intended for 13-P.Bryant INTERCEPTED by 30-J.Wallace [0-B.Young] at LA 8. 30-J.Wallace ran…+9.4 WP
  5. 5Offensive HoldingLA → helped SF · Wk 1 Q2 3:10 · (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short middle to 12-P.Nacua. PENALTY on LA-71-W.McClendon, Offensive Holding, 10 yards,…+8.3 WP
FoulFlagsYardsWP given
Defensive Pass Interference711139.3
False Start157436.7
Unnecessary Roughness46033.5
Offensive Holding1111024.7
Defensive Offside73218.3
Defensive Holding2716.3
Offensive Pass Interference33010.7
Illegal Use of Hands1310.2

Flags drawn

  1. 1Defensive Pass InterferenceARI → helped LA · Wk 6 Q4 8:55 · (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 12-P.Nacua (13-K.Clark). PENALTY on ARI-13-K.Clark, Defensive…+10.2 WP
  2. 2Defensive Pass InterferenceBUF → helped LA · Wk 5 Q3 10:18 · (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep middle to 89-T.Higbee [55-M.Hoecht]. PENALTY on BUF-24-C.Bishop, Defensive Pass…+8.6 WP
  3. 3Unnecessary RoughnessPHI → helped LA · Wk 4 Q4 5:20 · (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 23-K.Williams pushed ob at PHI 26 for 9 yards (33-C.DeJean). PENALTY on…+7.6 WP
  4. 4Offensive HoldingBUF → helped LA · Wk 5 OT 9:12 · (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 26-T.Johnson to BUF 40 for 10 yards (91-K.Turner; 53-N.Landman). PENALTY on…+6.9 WP
  5. 5Unnecessary RoughnessBUF → helped LA · Wk 5 Q2 2:31 · (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 89-T.Higbee (22-C.Gardner-Johnson). PENALTY on BUF-22-C.Gardner-Johnson,…+6.6 WP

Garbage Time Tax

20.1% of the offense's yards came with the game decided · 14th most of 32

Bottom lineKyren Williams: 195 of 593 yards (33%) came with the game decided.

How to read this chart
One bar per player,
as long as his season yards (passing, rushing or receiving).
Blue = yards with the game still alive.
Striped amber = garbage time: yards gained when the offense's chance of winning was already under 10% or over 90%, so the game was basically decided.
The percentage
is the garbage-time share of his yards (amber from 30% up).
Matthew StaffordLA · passing · 2,374 yds14%
Puka NacuaLA · receiving · 715 yds9%
Kyren WilliamsLA · rushing · 593 yds33%
Davante AdamsLA · receiving · 480 yds18%
Blake CorumLA · rushing · 447 yds27%
Tyler HigbeeLA · receiving · 287 yds16%
Kyren WilliamsLA · receiving · 258 yds14%

Our picks on the Rams

Receipts →
  1. 1Week 9We gave the Rams 65% at commanders. 20-13 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
  2. 2Week 8We gave the Rams 81% at home against chargers. 9-24 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
  3. 3Week 7We gave the Rams 51% at raiders. 35-21 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
  4. 4Week 6We gave the Rams 77% at home against cardinals. 18-16 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Wrong
  5. 5Week 5We gave the Rams 55% at home against bills. 37-34 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Wrong
  6. 6Week 4We gave the Rams 58% at eagles. 24-20 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
  7. 7Week 3We gave the Rams 59% at broncos. 26-30 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Wrong
  8. 8Week 2We gave the Rams 31% at home against giants. 6-28 final, a win. (rebuilt)Wrong
Cite thisPigskin Nightly, "Los Angeles Rams verdict, 2026", https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/rams/verdict (2026)CC BY 4.0Data licenseCSVJSONEmbedHow it works

Every number on this page is computed from the 2026 nflverse play-by-play by our own models. Nothing is hand-picked.