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The Verdict2026 · NFC West · through Week 9

49ers logoSan Francisco 49ersThe Verdict

49ers are 7-1; the play says 7.1 wins. Record and play agree, within a game. They are 3-0 in one-score games. On fourth down, Kyle Shanahan kicked away 5 of 11 situations our model called a go.

This week's issueLeague Luck IndexHow we judge
Luck wins · 18th of 32−0.17-1 real · 7.1 deserved · 5.8 Pythagorean
Luck points · 27th of 32−8.3fumble bounces −5.5 · opponents' kicks −2.8
Chicken Index · 18th of 3246%Kyle Shanahan · 4.2 expected points lost on 23 graded calls
Flags net · 23rd of 32−29.5 WP50 flags for 445 yards against · 50 drawn

Every game, judged

latest first

Bottom lineNone of these 8 games went against the play.

How to read this chart
Each card is one game.
Under each team: its success rate (share of snaps that kept the offense on schedule) and EPA per play (expected points added: how much each snap improved its scoring chances; 0 is average).
The split bar is the deserved win probability:
how often each team would win if the game were replayed from the same snaps. Away team on the left, home team on the right, 50-50 at the tick in the middle. The longer side played better.
The stamp is the ruling.
Earned: the winner also played better. Coin flip: the winner deserved it less than 60% of the time. Robbed: the loser deserved to win at least 70% of the time (when this team won one of those, it reads Lucky).
Luck pts
(full cards): real margin minus deserved margin; plus means the scoreboard was kinder than the play.
Week 9EarnedGame file →
Raiders logoRaiders40% success · −0.14 EPA/play
1738
49ers logo49ers50% success · +0.19 EPA/play

49ers earned it: the snaps said 49ers by 15.9, a deserved win probability of more than 99%.

Deserved marginSF by 15.9
Real marginSF by 21
Luck pts LV−2.7
Luck pts SF+1.5

The swingQ1 13:26 · SF · +9 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 85-G.Kittle to LV 41 for 4 yards (31-T.Stukes).

Week 7EarnedGame file →
49ers logo49ers56% success · +0.01 EPA/play
2029
Falcons logoFalcons48% success · +0.04 EPA/play

Falcons earned it: the snaps said Falcons by 2.3, a deserved win probability of 66%.

Deserved marginATL by 2.3
Real marginATL by 9
Luck pts SF−3.8
Luck pts ATL+5.0

The swingQ2 4:24 · SF · −15 pts of win probability. 26-K.Black up the middle to ATL 29 for -1 yards (92-M.Smith). FUMBLES (92-M.Smith), touched at ATL 29, RECOVERED by ATL-95-G.Dexter at ATL 29.

The luck sheet

All 32 →
One-score games3-0Decided by 8 points or fewer. Over a season teams win about half of these.
Fumble bounces−5.5 ptsKept 1 of 5 own fumbles; won 5 of 10 by opponents. League offenses keep 53%.
Opponents' kicks−2.8 ptsOpponents made 17 of 19 field goals against an expected 16.0, and 13 of 14 extra points.
Own kicking−3.2 ptsMade 7 of 10 field goals against 8.1 expected by distance. Skill, not luck: not in the luck total.
Net EPA per play+0.2462nd of 32 · offense minus defense, passes and runs
Our picks on them6-1Our pregame model in 49ers games. All receipts

Coach on trial

Kyle Shanahan · 23 graded fourth downs · went for it 11×

Bottom lineThe calls against the model in this list cost 3.8 expected points in total.

How to read this chart
Each row is one fourth down:
distance, spot, score, what the coach chose and what our model would have done (a clear call, a lean or a toss-up).
The number on the right
is what the choice cost in expected points (EP, what a possession is worth on average from that spot): −1.00 means about a point thrown away. ✓ = the coach made the model's call.
The result
is what happened next; the grade judges the decision, not the outcome.
  1. 1SF · 4th & 1Kyle Shanahan chose Punt at own 38, Wk 5 Q1 14:04, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.36 EP
  2. 2SF · 4th & 1Kyle Shanahan chose Punt at own 21, Wk 4 Q2 10:36, down 3. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.15 EP
  3. 3SF · 4th & 2Kyle Shanahan chose Punt at own 25, Wk 1 Q1 2:01, up 3. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.59 EP
  4. 4SF · 4th & 2Kyle Shanahan chose Field goal at opp 2, Wk 1 Q1 6:17, tied. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: good.−0.34 EP
  5. 5SF · 4th & 5Kyle Shanahan chose Punt at midfield, Wk 5 Q1 0:46, tied. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.33 EP

Brave and right

  1. 1SF · 4th & 1Kyle Shanahan chose Go for it at own 40, Wk 9 Q3 5:34, up 11. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: stopped.✓ EP
  2. 2SF · 4th & 2Kyle Shanahan chose Go for it at opp 45, Wk 9 Q1 13:26, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
  3. 3SF · 4th & 1Kyle Shanahan chose Go for it at opp 1, Wk 7 Q1 9:25, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: touchdown.✓ EP
  4. 4SF · 4th & 1Kyle Shanahan chose Go for it at opp 34, Wk 4 Q2 14:30, down 3. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: stopped.✓ EP
How to read this chart
Every fourth down this season.
Go EP, Punt EP and FG EP are the expected points of each option from that spot: the highest is the model's call.
Cost:
how many expected points the coach's choice gave up against the best one; ✓ = he made the best call. Late-game and lopsided situations are listed but not graded.
SituationWkChoiceModelGo EPPunt EPFG EPCostResult
4th & 2 · opp 45 · Q1 13:269Go for itGo for it1.13-0.22-0.16✓converted
4th & 1 · opp 23 · Q2 7:159Go for itGo for it3.17–2.52✓converted
4th & 1 · own 40 · Q3 5:349Go for itGo for it0.78-0.63–✓stopped
4th & 6 · opp 17 · Q4 5:249Field goalnot graded2.00–2.75good
4th & 1 · opp 1 · Q1 9:257Go for itGo for it4.12–2.95✓touchdown
4th & 15 · opp 48 · Q1 3:427PuntPunt-0.71-0.28–✓punted
4th & 9 · opp 34 · Q4 12:277Go for itnot graded0.53-0.111.58converted
4th & 10 · opp 23 · Q4 11:367Go for itnot graded1.18–2.52stopped
4th & 1 · own 44 · Q4 1:267Go for itnot graded1.02-0.49–converted
4th & 3 · opp 11 · Q1 5:426Go for itGo for it (toss-up)3.08–2.87✓converted
4th & 3 · own 11 · Q1 0:456PuntGo for it (toss-up)-2.04-2.21–−0.18punted
4th & 1 · opp 3 · Q2 0:496Go for itnot graded5.02–2.94converted
4th & 3 · opp 14 · Q3 6:016Field goalnot graded2.86–2.82good
4th & 11 · own 34 · Q4 14:146Puntnot graded-1.64-0.87–punted
4th & 10 · own 30 · Q4 7:536PuntPunt-1.82-1.06–✓punted
4th & 7 · own 20 · Q4 1:006Puntnot graded-2.20-1.61–punted
4th & 1 · own 38 · Q1 14:045PuntGo for it0.66-0.71–−1.36punted
4th & 6 · own 35 · Q1 4:475PuntPunt-1.09-0.83–✓punted
4th & 5 · 50 · Q1 0:465PuntGo for it0.01-0.32–−0.33punted
4th & 16 · opp 44 · Q2 8:375PuntField goal (toss-up)-0.49-0.200.02−0.22punted
4th & 14 · opp 42 · Q2 0:275Puntnot graded-0.29-0.170.38punted
4th & 5 · opp 34 · Q3 13:155Field goalField goal1.02-0.111.58✓missed
4th & 2 · opp 25 · Q4 2:005Field goalnot graded2.44–2.40good
4th & 6 · own 36 · Q1 9:384PuntPunt (toss-up)-1.02-0.79–✓punted
4th & 1 · opp 34 · Q2 14:304Go for itGo for it2.42-0.111.58✓stopped
4th & 1 · own 21 · Q2 10:364PuntGo for it-0.40-1.55–−1.15punted
4th & 5 · opp 6 · Q2 1:384Field goalnot graded3.12–2.92good
4th & 9 · own 32 · Q3 14:054PuntPunt-1.61-0.96–✓punted
4th & 7 · own 11 · Q3 9:524PuntPunt-2.83-2.21–✓punted
4th & 1 · opp 19 · Q3 7:244Go for itGo for it3.47–2.69✓converted
4th & 5 · own 19 · Q2 11:243PuntPunt-1.97-1.67–✓punted
4th & 10 · own 47 · Q2 1:413Puntnot graded-0.74-0.40–punted
4th & 4 · own 29 · Q3 1:063PuntPunt (toss-up)-1.11-1.11–✓punted
4th & 23 · own 43 · Q4 10:312Puntnot graded-1.51-0.52–punted
4th & 10 · own 36 · Q4 4:172Puntnot graded-1.44-0.79–punted
4th & 2 · opp 2 · Q1 6:171Field goalGo for it3.29–2.95−0.34good
4th & 2 · own 25 · Q1 2:011PuntGo for it-0.73-1.32–−0.59punted
4th & 3 · own 49 · Q2 0:281Puntnot graded0.40-0.35–punted
4th & 5 · opp 38 · Q4 9:481Field goalnot graded0.76-0.131.03good
4th & 4 · opp 34 · Q4 3:341Field goalnot graded1.21-0.111.58missed

Flags against

Ledger →

Bottom lineThe biggest here: Illegal Contact on SF in Week 6, worth +19 points of win probability to WAS.

How to read this chart
Each row is one flag:
the team in red was penalized, the team in green was helped.
The number on the right
is how much that flag moved the helped team's chance of winning, in points (100 = a whole game). When the play still counted, the play is included, so treat it as an upper bound.
Touchdown erased
marks a score wiped off by the flag, with the expected points it cost.
  1. 1Illegal ContactSF → helped WAS · Wk 6 Q4 3:01 · (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels sacked at SF 40 for -11 yards (sack split by 94-R.Height and 53-J.Dugger). PENALTY on SF-24-A.Davis,…+18.8 WP
  2. 2Defensive Pass InterferenceSF → helped ARI · Wk 3 Q4 13:38 · 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep left to 85-T.McBride. SF-57-D.Greenlaw was injured during the play. PENALTY on SF-2-D.Lenoir,…+13.3 WP
  3. 3Fair Catch InterferenceSF → helped WAS · Wk 6 Q4 1:00 · 15-C.Waitman punts 49 yards to WAS 31, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-L.McCaffrey. PENALTY on SF-33-S.Neal, Fair Catch…+12.0 WP
  4. 4Intentional GroundingSF → helped SEA · Wk 5 Q4 12:31 · 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short middle [3-N.Emmanwori]. PENALTY on SF-13-B.Purdy, Intentional Grounding, 11 yards, enforced at…+10.3 WP
  5. 5DisqualificationSF → helped SEA · Wk 5 Q2 6:30 · 14-S.Darnold scrambles right end pushed ob at SF 47 for 5 yards (57-D.Greenlaw). PENALTY on SF-57-D.Greenlaw, Disqualification,…+7.2 WP
FoulFlagsYardsWP given
Illegal Contact42024.9
Defensive Pass Interference47923.0
False Start84017.2
Intentional Grounding33913.7
Fair Catch Interference11512.0
Offensive Holding111108.8
Roughing the Passer2247.4
Disqualification1157.2

Flags drawn

  1. 1Offensive HoldingLA → helped SF · Wk 1 Q2 3:10 · (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short middle to 12-P.Nacua. PENALTY on LA-71-W.McClendon, Offensive Holding, 10 yards,…+8.3 WP
  2. 2Unnecessary RoughnessSEA → helped SF · Wk 5 Q3 14:18 · 14-S.Darnold pass deep left intended for 18-E.Arroyo INTERCEPTED by 0-R.Green at SF 44. 0-R.Green to SF 46 for 2 yards…+8.0 WP
  3. 3Intentional GroundingWAS → helped SF · Wk 6 Q4 0:21 · (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right [94-R.Height]. PENALTY on WAS-5-J.Daniels, Intentional Grounding, 12 yards,…+7.1 WP
  4. 4Offensive HoldingARI → helped SF · Wk 3 Q1 10:22 · 4-J.Love left tackle to SF 33 for 3 yards (0-R.Green). PENALTY on ARI-84-E.Higgins, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF…+6.4 WP
  5. 5Offensive HoldingDEN → helped SF · Wk 4 Q1 3:41 · 27-J.Dobbins right guard to SF 30 for 3 yards (92-O.Odighizuwa; 55-S.Valdez). PENALTY on DEN-69-M.McGlinchey, Offensive Holding,…+6.2 WP

Garbage Time Tax

23.3% of the offense's yards came with the game decided · 10th most of 32

Bottom lineKaelon Black: 96 of 303 yards (32%) came with the game decided.

How to read this chart
One bar per player,
as long as his season yards (passing, rushing or receiving).
Blue = yards with the game still alive.
Striped amber = garbage time: yards gained when the offense's chance of winning was already under 10% or over 90%, so the game was basically decided.
The percentage
is the garbage-time share of his yards (amber from 30% up).
Brock PurdySF · passing · 1,980 yds25%
Mike EvansSF · receiving · 500 yds9%
George KittleSF · receiving · 483 yds31%
Christian McCaffreySF · rushing · 457 yds13%
Kaelon BlackSF · rushing · 303 yds32%
Christian McCaffreySF · receiving · 270 yds20%

Our picks on the 49ers

Receipts →
  1. 1Week 9We gave the 49ers 79% at home against raiders. 17-38 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
  2. 2Week 7We gave the 49ers 74% at falcons. 20-29 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Wrong
  3. 3Week 6We gave the 49ers 84% at home against commanders. 17-23 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
  4. 4Week 5We gave the 49ers 56% at seahawks. 32-29 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
  5. 5Week 4We gave the 49ers 83% at home against broncos. 14-24 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
  6. 6Week 3We gave the 49ers 81% at home against cardinals. 30-36 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
  7. 7Week 2We gave the 49ers 78% at home against dolphins. 13-35 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
Cite thisPigskin Nightly, "San Francisco 49ers verdict, 2026", https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/49ers/verdict (2026)CC BY 4.0Data licenseCSVJSONEmbedHow it works

Every number on this page is computed from the 2026 nflverse play-by-play by our own models. Nothing is hand-picked.