Bears 7, Packers 31: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 5 · Sun, Oct 11 · Lambeau FieldFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
CHI	0	7	0	0	7
GB	7	7	9	8	31

Home · 6-3Green BayPackers31

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 8:46 PM ET

The Green Bay Packers beat the Chicago Bears 31-7 on Sun, Oct 11 at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, WI (Week 5, 2026 season). Records after the game: Bears 7-2, Packers 6-3. J.Love (GB) led all players with +17.2 EPA on 35 dropbacks.

Who won Bears vs Packers?

The Green Bay Packers won 31-7. By quarter: CHI 0-7-0-0, GB 7-7-9-8.

Who was the best player in Bears vs Packers?

By expected points added: J.Love (GB, +17.2 EPA on 35 dropbacks), C.Watson (GB, +10.3 EPA on 8 targets) and M.Golden (GB, +8.6 EPA on 8 targets).

What was the turning point of Bears vs Packers?

The biggest swing in win probability (18 points toward the Packers) came in Q3 at 13:10: (Shotgun) J.Love pass deep middle to C.Watson for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. T.Smack extra point is No Good, Wide Left, Center-M.Orzech, Holder-D.Whelan.

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Bears 7, Packers 31: Week 5 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-10-11-chi-at-gb (updated 2026-11-11).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 5 issue →

Week 5EarnedGame file →

Bears38% success · −0.30 EPA/play

731

Packers47% success · +0.23 EPA/play

CHI 0% deserveddeserved 100% GB

Packers earned it: the snaps said Packers by 27.4, a deserved win probability of more than 99%.

Deserved marginGB by 27.4

Real marginGB by 24

Luck pts CHI−0.3

Luck pts GB+8.6

The swingQ3 13:19 · GB · +12 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 9-C.Watson for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Flags that moved this game

1Offensive HoldingCHI → helped GB · Wk 5 Q2 1:36 · 19-D.Whelan punts 75 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback. PENALTY on CHI-24-M.Muhammad, Offensive Holding, 10…+4.1 WP
2Defensive HoldingGB → helped CHI · Wk 5 Q2 3:23 · (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass incomplete short left to 10-L.Burden (98-J.Hargrave). PENALTY on GB-44-Z.Franklin, Defensive Holding,…+3.0 WP

Fourth downs our model disagreed with

1GB · 4th & 2Matt LaFleur chose Punt at own 28, Wk 5 Q2 11:13, up 14. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.62 EP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA144 plays, one strand0 lead changes · 10 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewClay Martin7 accepted flags in this game · 13.4 a game this season (about league average)Market vs SnapsLine: CHI by 1.5 · Snaps: GB by 27.4Packers covered; the snaps agree

7@31

Week 5

If the Bears had recovered that fumble

Bears after the play18%what really happened

Q2 0:39 10-J.Love sacked at GB 45 for -6 yards (94-A.Booker). FUMBLES (94-A.Booker) [94-A.Booker], and recovers at GB 46.

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

GB ▲CHI ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+18%Q3 13:10 · for GB(Shotgun) J.Love pass deep middle to C.Watson for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. T.Smack extra point is No Good, Wide Left, Center-M.Orzech, Holder-D.Whelan.
+11%Q2 1:53 · for CHI(Shotgun) D.Swift left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-S.Daly, Holder-T.Taylor.
+11%Q1 5:51 · for GBJ.Love pass deep left to C.Watson for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. T.Smack extra point is GOOD, Center-M.Orzech, Holder-D.Whelan.
+7%Q2 2:00 · for GBT.Bagent pass incomplete short middle to R.Odunze (K.Nixon).
+6%Q1 5:39 · for GB(Shotgun) T.Bagent pass deep right intended for L.Burden INTERCEPTED by X.McKinney (J.Bullard) at CHI 45. X.McKinney to CHI 45 for no gain (L.Burden).

Every drive, on the field

GB attacks →← CHI attacks

Q1 15:00PUNT5p · 9y · 2:56
Q1 12:04TD10p · 91y · 6:13
Q1 5:51INT2p · 0y · 0:19
Q1 5:32TD10p · 45y · 5:36
Q2 14:56PUNT3p · 4y · 1:41
Q2 13:15PUNT3p · 8y · 2:12
Q2 11:03TD16p · 78y · 9:10
Q2 1:53PUNT3p · 4y · 0:31
Q2 1:22PUNT3p · 0y · 0:43
Q2 0:39HALF2p · -14y · 0:39
Q3 15:00TD4p · 72y · 1:50
Q3 13:10MISS9p · 42y · 4:34
Q3 8:36PUNT6p · 13y · 2:22
Q3 6:14PUNT3p · 7y · 2:06
Q3 4:08FG5p · 45y · 2:10
Q3 1:58INT5p · 13y · 1:24
Q3 0:34TD3p · 55y · 0:39
Q4 14:55INT5p · 22y · 2:06
Q4 12:49MISS5p · 57y · 3:03
Q4 9:46FUM5p · 30y · 1:20
Q4 8:26MISS6p · 28y · 3:05
Q4 5:21FUM5p · 22y · 1:09
Q4 4:12PUNT3p · 6y · 1:01
Q4 3:11DOWNS8p · 14y · 2:08
Q4 1:03END2p · -2y · 1:03

Bears12 drives1scoring drives (1 TD)8%drives ending in pointsOWN 28avg starting field position3three-and-outs6turnovers incl. downs

Packers11 drives5scoring drives (4 TD)45%drives ending in pointsOWN 32avg starting field position3three-and-outs0turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
5:51TouchdownJ.Love pass deep left to C.Watson for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. T.Smack extra point is GOOD, Center-M.Orzech, Holder-D.Whelan.0–7
Q2
14:56TouchdownM.Lloyd right tackle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. T.Smack extra point is GOOD, Center-M.Orzech, Holder-D.Whelan.0–14
Q2
1:53Touchdown(Shotgun) D.Swift left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-S.Daly, Holder-T.Taylor.7–14
Q3
13:10Touchdown(Shotgun) J.Love pass deep middle to C.Watson for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. T.Smack extra point is No Good, Wide Left, Center-M.Orzech, Holder-D.Whelan.7–20
Q3
1:58Field goalT.Smack 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-M.Orzech, Holder-D.Whelan.7–23
Q4
14:55TouchdownM.Lloyd left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. J.Love pass to M.Golden is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.7–31

Team stats

CHIvsGB

246Total yards428

165Passing yards358

81Rushing yards70

3.6Yards per play7.3

17First downs18

4-14 · 29%Third down4-12 · 33%

2-5Fourth down1-1

1-2Red zone TDs2-3

23/40Comp / att25/31

3.4Yards per carry2.7

5Turnovers0

4 (−30 yds)Sacks allowed2 (−9 yds)

3 for 20Penalties4 for 25

29:36Possession30:24

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play-0.340+0.259

Dropback EPA-0.477+0.492

Rush EPA-0.033-0.094

Success rate38%47%

Explosive plays58

Plays6858

Who moved the needle

J.LoveDropbacks: 35+17.2

C.WatsonTargets: 8+10.3

M.GoldenTargets: 8+8.6

D.SwiftCarries: 9+4.3

T.KraftTargets: 5+3.1

R.JohnsonTargets: 7+0.6

Cost their side the most

C.KeenumDropbacks: 22-12.3

T.BagentDropbacks: 25-10.2

R.OdunzeTargets: 9-7.4

Box score

Chicago Bears

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Case KeenumQB	11/19	108	5.7	0	1	2-13	27.8	52.1
Tyson BagentQB	12/21	87	4.1	0	2	2-17	23.5	27.4

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
D'Andre SwiftRB	9	43	4.8	1	12
Tyson BagentQB	3	17	5.7	0	7
Zavion ThomasWR	1	11	11.0	0	11
Roschon JohnsonRB	5	6	1.2	0	3
Case KeenumQB	1	4	4.0	0	4
Luther Burden IIIWR	4	2	0.5	0	7
Kalif RaymondWR	1	-2	-2.0	0	-2

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	LONG
Luther Burden IIIWR	4	6	47	11.8	23
Rome OdunzeWR	3	9	40	13.3	20
Roschon JohnsonRB	5	7	34	6.8	9
D'Andre SwiftRB	4	5	30	7.5	13
Colston LovelandTE	2	5	19	9.5	12
Zavion ThomasWR	1	1	11	11.0	11
Cole KmetTE	1	2	8	8.0	8
Kalif RaymondWR	3	4	6	2.0	6
Jahdae WalkerWR	0	1	0	0.0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Devin BushLB	8	3	0	2	0	0
Dillon ThienemanS	7	5	0	1	1	0
Austin BookerDE	5	4	2	3	0	2
Cam LewisCB	5	4	0	0	0	0
Jaylon JohnsonCB	4	4	0	0	1	0
Malik Muhammad IICB	4	4	0	0	0	0
T.J. EdwardsLB	4	3	0	1	0	0
D'Marco JacksonLB	4	2	0	0	0	0
James LynchDT	4	1	0	1	0	0
Grady JarrettDE	2	2	0	1	0	1

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Cairo SantosPK	0/1	0.0	0	1/1	1

Green Bay Packers

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Jordan LoveQB	25/31	367	11.8	2	0	2-9	95.1	137.5

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
MarShawn LloydRB	10	31	3.1	2	10
Kaleb JohnsonRB	7	26	3.7	0	23
Pierre Strong Jr.RB	5	7	1.4	0	5
Jordan LoveQB	1	6	6.0	0	6
Tucker KraftTE	1	2	2.0	0	2
Tyrod TaylorQB	2	-2	-1.0	0	-1

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Christian WatsonWR	6	8	143	23.8	2	53
Matthew GoldenWR	6	7	123	20.5	0	50
Tucker KraftTE	5	5	64	12.8	0	46
Bo MeltonWR	3	4	20	6.7	0	8
Pierre Strong Jr.RB	3	4	11	3.7	0	8
MarShawn LloydRB	1	2	6	6.0	0	6
Skyy MooreWR	1	1	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Evan WilliamsS	12	7	0	0	0	0
Zaire FranklinLB	9	6	0	1	1	0
Javon BullardS	7	4	0	0	1	0
Keisean NixonCB	6	4	0	1	1	0
Isaiah McDuffieLB	6	3	0	0	0	0
Kamal HaddenCB	4	2	0	0	0	0
Devonte WyattDT	3	3	2	2	0	2
Dani Dennis-SuttonDE	3	3	1	2	1	2
Brenton Cox Jr.DE	3	3	0	0	0	1
Brandon CisseCB	2	2	1	1	1	1

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Trey SmackPK	1/3	33.3	35	2/3	5

Before kickoff · Regular season through week 4 · rank out of 32

Where it was expected to be decided

1Bears third-down defense vs Packers third-down offense
The Bears' third-down defense ranks 1st in third-down conversion rate (23.7% allowed, 38 third downs faced) and faces a Packers third-down offense ranked 32nd (26.7%, 45 third downs).
32ndGB offense31 spots apart1stCHI defense
2Bears pass defense vs Packers dropback offense
The Bears' pass defense ranks 3rd in EPA per dropback (-0.09 allowed, 116 dropbacks faced) and faces a Packers dropback offense ranked 18th (+0.03, 162 dropbacks).
18thGB offense15 spots apart3rdCHI defense
3Bears run game vs Packers run defense
The Bears' run game ranks 9th in EPA per rush (-0.02, 142 rushes) against a Packers run defense ranked 23rd (-0.02 allowed, 115 rushes faced).
9thCHI offense14 spots apart23rdGB defense

When the Bears have the ballEdge CHI · +14 ranks

CHI dropback offenseEPA per dropbackGB pass defense

8th+0.22150 dropbacks

CHI +13

+0.09 allowed141 dropbacks faced21st

CHI run gameEPA per rushGB run defense

9th-0.02142 rushes

CHI +14

-0.02 allowed115 rushes faced23rd

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Packers have the ballEdge CHI · +15 ranks

GB dropback offenseEPA per dropbackCHI pass defense

18th+0.03162 dropbacks

CHI +15

-0.09 allowed116 dropbacks faced3rd

GB run gameEPA per rushCHI run defense

32nd-0.3770 rushes

-0.00 allowed76 rushes faced26th

Third downEdge CHI · +31 ranks

CHI third-down offensethird-down conversion rateGB third-down defense

6th48.2%56 third downs

CHI +24

52.7% allowed55 third downs faced30th

GB third-down offensethird-down conversion rateCHI third-down defense

32nd26.7%45 third downs

CHI +31

23.7% allowed38 third downs faced1st

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneNo big edge

CHI red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateGB red-zone defense

27th44%18 trips

80% allowed15 trips faced31st

GB red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateCHI red-zone defense

22nd50%14 trips

63% allowed8 trips faced19th

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsNo big edge

CHI big-play offenseexplosive-play rateGB defense against big plays

5th11.0%292 plays

6.6% allowed256 plays faced4th

GB big-play offenseexplosive-play rateCHI defense against big plays

20th8.2%232 plays

9.9% allowed192 plays faced21st

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksEdge CHI · +9 ranks

CHI pass protectionsack rateGB pass rush

11th4.7% sacked150 dropbacks

7.1% of dropbacks141 dropbacks faced11th

GB pass protectionsack rateCHI pass rush

13th4.9% sacked162 dropbacks

CHI +9

8.6% of dropbacks116 dropbacks faced4th

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversEdge CHI · +12 ranks

CHI ball securityturnovers per gameGB takeaway defense

18th1.3 giveaways a game4 games

1.0 takeaways a game4 games17th

GB ball securityturnovers per gameCHI takeaway defense

23rd1.5 giveaways a game4 games

CHI +12

1.3 takeaways a game4 games11th

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

Sample: CHI 4 games, 292 offensive and 192 defensive plays · GB 4 games, 232 offensive and 256 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

Caleb WilliamsQB→ Tyson Bagent

Jeffery SimmonsRDT→ Kentavius Street

T.J. EdwardsMLB→ Austin Booker

Kyler GordonNB→ Malik Muhammad II

Savion WilliamsWR→ Bo Melton

Aaron BanksLG→ Laken Tomlinson

AwayBears2 questionable · 4 changes