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The Verdict2026 · Week 9 · latest issue

Week 9The Verdict

15 games, re-judged from every snap. 1 result the play did not support. Coaches faced 149 gradeable fourth downs and kicked away 21 the model said to go for. Our pregame picks went 12-3.

← Week 8Updated Nov 10, 7:43 AM ETHow we judge
Robbery of the weekPanthers logoCAR 79%deserved win probability in a 26-21 lossLuckiest recordBroncos logoDEN +2.9 W7-2 real, 4.1 deserved · 6-0 in one-score gamesCostliest flag+14 WPIntentional Grounding on IND, 1:03 in the Q4Worst fourth-down call−1.38 EPBrian Schottenheimer: punted on 4th & 1 at own 39

The cases

Every Week 9 game · most disputed first

Bottom line1 of these 15 games went against the play. The biggest: DEN @ CAR, where the Panthers lost with a 79% deserved win probability.

How to read this chart
Each card is one game.
Under each team: its success rate (share of snaps that kept the offense on schedule) and EPA per play (expected points added: how much each snap improved its scoring chances; 0 is average).
The split bar is the deserved win probability:
how often each team would win if the game were replayed from the same snaps. Away team on the left, home team on the right, 50-50 at the tick in the middle. The longer side played better.
The stamp is the ruling.
Earned: the winner also played better. Coin flip: the winner deserved it less than 60% of the time. Robbed: the loser deserved to win at least 70% of the time.
Luck pts
(full cards): real margin minus deserved margin; plus means the scoreboard was kinder than the play.
No. 1 · Week 9RobbedGame file →
Broncos logoBroncos43% success · +0.03 EPA/play
2621
Panthers logoPanthers47% success · +0.10 EPA/play

Panthers played like a 4.4-point better team. A team that plays like that wins 79% of the time. Panthers lost.

Deserved marginCAR by 4.4
Real marginDEN by 5
Luck pts DEN+4.5
Luck pts CAR−2.9

The swingQ4 1:24 · CAR · −33 pts of win probability. (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at DEN 44 for -8 yards (15-N.Bonitto). FUMBLES (15-N.Bonitto) [15-N.Bonitto], RECOVERED by DEN-15-N.Bonitto at DEN 44. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play…

No. 2 · Week 9EarnedGame file →
Browns logoBrowns33% success · −0.11 EPA/play
2223
Saints logoSaints44% success · −0.07 EPA/play

Saints earned it: the snaps said Saints by 3.0, a deserved win probability of 71%.

Deserved marginNO by 3.0
Real marginNO by 1
Luck pts CLE−0.4
Luck pts NO+0.4

The swingOT 1:00 · CLE · −47 pts of win probability. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 2-S.Sanders pass to 12-D.Boston is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS. Penalty on CLE-71-T.Howard, Offensive Holding, declined.

No. 3 · Week 9EarnedGame file →
Buccaneers logoBuccaneers40% success · −0.27 EPA/play
2427
Bears logoBears43% success · −0.19 EPA/play

Bears earned it: the snaps said Bears by 5.7, a deserved win probability of 85%.

Deserved marginCHI by 5.7
Real marginCHI by 3
Luck pts TB+1.6
Luck pts CHI−2.4

The swingQ3 3:50 · TB · −28 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 88-C.Otton INTERCEPTED by 1-J.Johnson at CHI 33. 1-J.Johnson for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

No. 4 · Week 9EarnedGame file →
Giants logoGiants30% success · −0.13 EPA/play
1911
Eagles logoEagles24% success · −0.26 EPA/play

Giants earned it: the snaps said Giants by 5.8, a deserved win probability of 86%.

Deserved marginNYG by 5.8
Real marginNYG by 8
Luck pts NYG+5.3
Luck pts PHI−8.3

The swingQ2 13:37 · PHI · −15 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 14-J.Milton sacked at 50 for -8 yards (52-A.Reese). FUMBLES (52-A.Reese) [52-A.Reese], RECOVERED by NYG-41-M.McFadden at 50.

Luck Index

All 32 →

Bottom lineDenver Broncos: 7-2 with 4.1 deserved wins (+2.9). New York Jets: 2-7 with 4.5 (−2.5).

How to read this chart
One row per team;
the scale along the bottom counts wins.
Solid dot = real wins
(a tie counts as half). Gold ring = deserved wins: each game's deserved win probability added up, the record the team's snaps earned.
The line joins the two.
Red: the record is ahead of the play, and that gap usually closes (due to fall). Green: the record is behind the play (due to rise). Longer line, bigger gap.
The number on the right
is luck wins: real wins minus deserved wins.

Looking back, not ahead. Deserved wins grade how well a team has played, from every snap of the games already played. They are not a forecast of the games to come. How well they hold up

Real winsDeserved winsRecord ahead of the play: due to fallRecord behind the play: due to rise
Broncos logoDEN7-2+2.9 WBills logoBUF7-1+1.4 WLions logoDET6-2+1.3 WVikings logoMIN6-2+1.3 WSteelers logoPIT6-2+1.0 WChargers logoLAC0-8−1.0 WTexans logoHOU3-5−1.2 WRams logoLAR5-4−1.6 WBuccaneers logoTB3-6−1.7 WJets logoNYJ2-7−2.5 W
01234567

Season to date. Deserved wins add up each game's deserved win probability: a look back at games already played, not a forecast. The five records furthest ahead of the play, then the five furthest behind.

Flags that mattered

Ledger →

Bottom lineThe biggest here: Intentional Grounding on IND in Week 9, worth +14 points of win probability to DAL.

How to read this chart
Each row is one flag:
the team in red was penalized, the team in green was helped.
The number on the right
is how much that flag moved the helped team's chance of winning, in points (100 = a whole game). When the play still counted, the play is included, so treat it as an upper bound.
Touchdown erased
marks a score wiped off by the flag, with the expected points it cost.
  1. 1Intentional GroundingIND → helped DAL · Wk 9 Q4 1:03 · (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep right. PENALTY on IND-17-D.Jones, Intentional Grounding, 12 yards, enforced at IND 26.…+14.3 WP
  2. 2Defensive Pass InterferenceDAL → helped IND · Wk 9 Q4 10:48 · (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep middle to 80-D.Burks (26-D.Bland). PENALTY on DAL-26-D.Bland, Defensive Pass…+12.1 WP
  3. 3Illegal Use of HandsIND → helped DAL · Wk 9 Q4 1:19 · (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams up the middle to IND 11 for 8 yards (30-H.Wohler). PENALTY on IND-90-G.Stewart, Illegal Use of Hands, 5…+10.3 WP
  4. 4Defensive Pass InterferenceCAR → helped DEN · Wk 9 Q1 14:47 · (Shotgun) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep left to 11-T.Franklin (31-C.Thornton). PENALTY…+10.2 WP
  5. 5Defensive Pass InterferenceNYG → helped PHI · Wk 9 Q1 3:16 · (Shotgun) 14-J.Milton pass incomplete deep left to 80-D.Cooper (2-D.Banks). PENALTY on NYG-2-D.Banks, Defensive Pass…+9.9 WP

Coach on trial

Every fourth down →

Bottom lineThe calls against the model in this list cost 6.1 expected points in total.

How to read this chart
Each row is one fourth down:
distance, spot, score, what the coach chose and what our model would have done (a clear call, a lean or a toss-up).
The number on the right
is what the choice cost in expected points (EP, what a possession is worth on average from that spot): −1.00 means about a point thrown away. ✓ = the coach made the model's call.
The result
is what happened next; the grade judges the decision, not the outcome.
  1. 1DAL · 4th & 1Brian Schottenheimer chose Punt at own 39, Wk 9 Q4 7:50, up 3. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.38 EP
  2. 2WAS · 4th & 1Dan Quinn chose Punt at own 29, Wk 9 Q3 9:34, down 3. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.21 EP
  3. 3NYG · 4th & 1John Harbaugh chose Punt at own 29, Wk 9 Q1 0:42, down 2. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.21 EP
  4. 4SEA · 4th & 1Mike Macdonald chose Punt at own 23, Wk 9 Q2 9:40, up 4. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.16 EP
  5. 5IND · 4th & 1Shane Steichen chose Punt at own 20, Wk 9 Q2 6:02, down 3. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.15 EP

Right call  Brave and right

  1. 1NYG · 4th & 1John Harbaugh chose Go for it at own 44, Wk 9 Q3 7:10, down 2. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
  2. 2SF · 4th & 1Kyle Shanahan chose Go for it at own 40, Wk 9 Q3 5:34, up 11. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: stopped.✓ EP
  3. 3DET · 4th & 1Dan Campbell chose Go for it at opp 8, Wk 9 Q3 1:25, up 3. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: touchdown.✓ EP

Garbage Time Tax

Full list →

Bottom lineQuentin Johnston: 160 of 260 yards (62%) came with the game decided.

How to read this chart
One bar per player,
as long as his season yards (passing, rushing or receiving).
Blue = yards with the game still alive.
Striped amber = garbage time: yards gained when the offense's chance of winning was already under 10% or over 90%, so the game was basically decided.
The percentage
is the garbage-time share of his yards (amber from 30% up).
Quentin JohnstonLAC · receiving · 260 yds62%
Jahan DotsonATL · receiving · 353 yds59%
Kenny GainwellTB · rushing · 305 yds49%
Emanuel WilsonSEA · rushing · 403 yds45%
Tyler AllgeierARI · rushing · 369 yds41%
Kyle MonangaiCHI · rushing · 324 yds40%

Season to date.

Our receipts

Every pick →
Week 912-3Brier 0.142 (a coin flip scores 0.250)
Season73-47Brier 0.240 · closing line 0.215

The Brier score measures how close our probabilities were to what happened: 0 is perfect, 0.250 is a coin flip, lower is better. We publish ours even when the betting market beats us.

Back issues

Week 915 games · 1 robbedWeek 814 games · 2 robbedWeek 714 games · 0 robbedWeek 614 games · 0 robbedWeek 515 games · 0 robbedWeek 416 games · 0 robbedWeek 316 games · 3 robbedWeek 216 games · 1 robbedWeek 116 games · 0 robbed
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