Buccaneers 24, Bears 27: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8 · Soldier FieldFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
TB	0	6	7	11	24
CHI	14	3	7	3	27

Home · 7-2ChicagoBears27

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 4:57 PM ET

The Chicago Bears beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27-24 on Sun, Nov 8 at Soldier Field in Chicago, IL (Week 9, 2026 season). Records after the game: Buccaneers 3-6, Bears 7-2. K.Gainwell (TB) led all players with +3.4 EPA on 3 targets.

Who won Buccaneers vs Bears?

The Chicago Bears won 27-24. By quarter: TB 0-6-7-11, CHI 14-3-7-3.

Who was the best player in Buccaneers vs Bears?

By expected points added: K.Gainwell (TB, +3.4 EPA on 3 targets), R.Odunze (CHI, +2.7 EPA on 7 targets) and B.Irving (TB, +2.5 EPA on 20 carries).

What was the turning point of Buccaneers vs Bears?

The biggest swing in win probability (26 points toward the Bears) came in Q4 at 0:47: (Shotgun) C.Williams pass deep left to C.Loveland pushed ob at TB 16 for 38 yards (I.Melifonwu).

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Buccaneers 24, Bears 27: Week 9 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-11-08-tb-at-chi (updated 2026-11-10).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 9 issue →

Week 9EarnedGame file →

Buccaneers40% success · −0.27 EPA/play

2427

Bears43% success · −0.19 EPA/play

TB 15% deserveddeserved 85% CHI

Bears earned it: the snaps said Bears by 5.7, a deserved win probability of 85%.

Deserved marginCHI by 5.7

Real marginCHI by 3

Luck pts TB+1.6

Luck pts CHI−2.4

The swingQ3 3:50 · TB · −28 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 88-C.Otton INTERCEPTED by 1-J.Johnson at CHI 33. 1-J.Johnson for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Flags that moved this game

1Offensive HoldingCHI → helped TB · Wk 9 Q3 7:26 · 84-C.Loveland right end to CHI 38 for 4 yards (45-J.Trotter; 23-T.Smith). PENALTY on CHI-88-S.Carlson, Offensive Holding, 9…+5.5 WP
2Face MaskCHI → helped TB · Wk 9 Q4 7:19 · (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at TB 5 for -12 yards (sack split by 94-A.Booker and 98-M.Sweat). PENALTY on CHI-94-A.Booker, Face…+4.3 WP

Fourth downs our model disagreed with

1TB · 4th & 2Todd Bowles chose Punt at own 34, Wk 9 Q3 2:02, down 11. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.71 EP
2CHI · 4th & 4Ben Johnson chose Field goal at opp 7, Wk 9 Q2 3:06, up 11. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: good.−0.44 EP
3TB · 4th & 4Todd Bowles chose Punt at own 46, Wk 9 Q1 7:34, down 7. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.39 EP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA151 plays, one strand0 lead changes · 9 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewRonald Torbert17 accepted flags in this game · 14 a game this season (about league average)Market vs SnapsLine: CHI by 6.5 · Snaps: CHI by 5.7Buccaneers covered; the snaps agree

24@27

Week 9Changes the winner

If the 38-yard kick at the gun had missed: overtime

Buccaneers after the play0%what really happened

Q4 0:03 8-C.Santos 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. Penalty on TB-91-A.Robinson, Unnecessary Roughness, declined.

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

CHI ▲TB ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+26%Q4 0:47 · for CHI(Shotgun) C.Williams pass deep left to C.Loveland pushed ob at TB 16 for 38 yards (I.Melifonwu).
+24%Q3 3:39 · for CHI(Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass short right intended for C.Otton INTERCEPTED by J.Johnson at CHI 33. J.Johnson for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-S.Daly, Holder-T.Taylor.
+16%Q4 0:00 · for CHI C.Santos 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-S.Daly, Holder-T.Taylor. Penalty on TB-A.Robinson, Unnecessary Roughness, declined.
+14%Q4 2:00 · for CHI(Shotgun) C.Williams pass short left to K.Raymond to CHI 45 for 8 yards (J.Trotter).
+14%Q3 4:38 · for TB(Shotgun) C.Williams pass short left intended for L.Burden INTERCEPTED by A.Anzalone (J.Parrish) at CHI 43. A.Anzalone pushed ob at CHI 37 for 6 yards (L.Burden).

Every drive, on the field

CHI attacks →← TB attacks

Q1 15:00TD10p · 53y · 5:22
Q1 9:38PUNT3p · 6y · 2:14
Q1 7:24TD4p · 81y · 1:24
Q1 6:00FG13p · 67y · 7:12
Q2 13:48INT13p · 46y · 5:45
Q2 8:03DOWNS4p · 9y · 0:56
Q2 7:07INT1p · 0y · 0:07
Q2 7:00PUNT4p · 12y · 1:42
Q2 5:18FG6p · 45y · 2:16
Q2 3:02INT6p · 40y · 2:19
Q2 0:43INT1p · 0y · 0:05
Q2 0:38FG5p · 40y · 0:38
Q3 15:00TD6p · 74y · 3:23
Q3 11:37PUNT3p · 7y · 1:06
Q3 10:31PUNT3p · 1y · 1:49
Q3 8:42PUNT3p · 0y · 1:50
Q3 6:52PUNT3p · -12y · 1:36
Q3 5:16INT2p · 7y · 0:44
Q3 4:32INT2p · 1y · 0:53
Q3 3:39PUNT3p · 8y · 1:47
Q3 1:52PUNT3p · 1y · 1:28
Q3 0:24FG8p · 48y · 4:00
Q4 11:24PUNT5p · 19y · 3:21
Q4 8:03PUNT5p · 16y · 3:36
Q4 4:27FUM3p · 7y · 0:49
Q4 3:38TD2p · 17y · 0:47
Q4 2:51FG8p · 49y · 2:51

Buccaneers14 drives6scoring drives (3 TD)43%drives ending in pointsOWN 36avg starting field position4three-and-outs3turnovers incl. downs

Bears13 drives4scoring drives (2 TD)31%drives ending in pointsOWN 31avg starting field position3three-and-outs5turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
9:38Touchdown(Shotgun) C.Williams pass short right to R.Odunze for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-S.Daly, Holder-T.Taylor.0–7
Q1
6:00Touchdown(Shotgun) C.Williams pass short middle to L.Burden for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-S.Daly, Holder-T.Taylor.0–14
Q2
13:48Field goal C.McLaughlin 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-E.Deckers, Holder-R.Dixon.3–14
Q2
3:02Field goal C.Santos 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-S.Daly, Holder-T.Taylor.3–17
Q2
0:00Field goal C.McLaughlin 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-E.Deckers, Holder-R.Dixon.6–17
Q3
11:37TouchdownB.Irving left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-E.Deckers, Holder-R.Dixon.13–17
Q3
3:39Touchdown(Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass short right intended for C.Otton INTERCEPTED by J.Johnson at CHI 33. J.Johnson for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-S.Daly, Holder-T.Taylor.13–24
Q4
11:24Field goalC.McLaughlin 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-E.Deckers, Holder-R.Dixon.16–24
Q4
2:51Touchdown(Shotgun) B.Irving left guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. B.Mayfield rushes up the middle. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.24–24
Q4
0:00Field goal C.Santos 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-S.Daly, Holder-T.Taylor. Penalty on TB-A.Robinson, Unnecessary Roughness, declined.24–27

Team stats

TBvsCHI

352Total yards349

226Passing yards277

126Rushing yards72

5.5Yards per play5.8

18First downs15

2-12 · 17%Third down7-13 · 54%

1-2Fourth down0-0

2-5Red zone TDs1-4

18/32Comp / att22/37

4.5Yards per carry3.3

2Turnovers5

4 (−17 yds)Sacks allowed1 (−2 yds)

8 for 45Penalties9 for 74

32:52Possession27:08

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play-0.205-0.218

Dropback EPA-0.350-0.213

Rush EPA-0.026-0.230

Success rate40%43%

Explosive plays64

Plays6558

Who moved the needle

K.GainwellTargets: 3+3.4

R.OdunzeTargets: 7+2.7

B.IrvingCarries: 20+2.5

C.LovelandTargets: 6+1.9

E.EgbukaTargets: 5+0.6

C.GodwinTargets: 3+0.5

Cost their side the most

B.MayfieldDropbacks: 36-12.6

C.OttonTargets: 8-9.3

C.WilliamsDropbacks: 41-8.7

Box score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Baker MayfieldQB	18/32	243	7.6	0	2	4-17	24.9	54.6

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Bucky IrvingRB	20	97	4.9	2	25
Kenny GainwellRB	5	16	3.2	0	8
Chris Godwin Jr.WR	1	12	12.0	0	12
Emeka EgbukaWR	1	1	1.0	0	1
Baker MayfieldQB	1	0	0.0	0	0

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	LONG
Tez JohnsonWR	2	5	76	38.0	58
Kenny GainwellRB	3	3	60	20.0	44
Emeka EgbukaWR	3	5	38	12.7	21
Bucky IrvingRB	4	5	28	7.0	10
Cade OttonTE	4	8	25	6.3	9
Chris Godwin Jr.WR	2	3	16	8.0	9
Ted Hurst IIIWR	0	1	0	0.0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Josiah TrotterLB	8	5	0	0	0	0
Tykee SmithS	7	4	0	1	1	0
Zyon McCollumCB	5	4	0	1	2	0
Keionte ScottCB	4	2	0	0	0	1
Antoine Winfield Jr.S	4	2	0	0	1	0
Kevin KnowlesCB	4	1	0	0	0	0
Ifeatu MelifonwuS	4	4	0	0	1	0
Anthony NelsonLB	3	1	0.5	0	0	1
Jacob ParrishCB	3	3	0	1	1	0
Calijah KanceyDT	3	1	0.5	0	0	1

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Chase McLaughlinPK	3/3	100.0	35	1/1	10

Chicago Bears

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Caleb WilliamsQB	22/37	279	7.5	2	4	1-2	52.0	61.5

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
D'Andre SwiftRB	12	31	2.6	6
Salvon AhmedRB	5	25	5.0	8
Caleb WilliamsQB	5	16	3.2	9

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Luther Burden IIIWR	7	9	97	13.9	1	56
Rome OdunzeWR	4	7	60	15.0	1	23
Colston LovelandTE	4	6	54	13.5	0	38
Kalif RaymondWR	4	7	32	8.0	0	13
Sam RoushTE	2	2	23	11.5	0	18
Zavion ThomasWR	1	2	13	13.0	0	13
D'Andre SwiftRB	0	1	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Devin BushLB	9	3	0	1	2	0
Cam LewisCB	6	3	0	0	1	0
Montez SweatDE	6	4	0	0	0	1
Dillon ThienemanS	5	3	0	0	0	0
Tyrique Stevenson Sr.CB	5	3	0	0	0	0
Austin BookerDE	4	3	1	1	0	2
Jeffery SimmonsDT	4	3	1	1	1	1
Neville GallimoreDT	3	2	0	0	0	0
Jaylon JohnsonCB	3	1	0	0	1	0
Grady JarrettDE	3	0	0.5	0	0	1

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Cairo SantosPK	2/2	100.0	38	3/3	9

Before kickoff · Regular season through week 8 · rank out of 32

Where it was expected to be decided

1Bears pass rush vs Buccaneers pass protection
The Bears' pass rush ranks 2nd in sack rate (8.2% of dropbacks, 267 dropbacks faced) and faces a Buccaneers pass protection ranked 28th (8.9% sacked, 257 dropbacks).
28thTB offense26 spots apart2ndCHI defense
2Bears pass defense vs Buccaneers dropback offense
The Bears' pass defense ranks 12th in EPA per dropback (+0.01 allowed, 267 dropbacks faced) and faces a Buccaneers dropback offense ranked 30th (-0.17, 257 dropbacks).
30thTB offense18 spots apart12thCHI defense
3Buccaneers takeaway defense vs Bears ball security
The Buccaneers' takeaway defense ranks 2nd in turnovers per game (1.8 takeaways a game, 8 games) and faces a Bears ball security ranked 23rd (1.5 giveaways a game, 8 games).
23rdCHI offense21 spots apart2ndTB defenseSmall sample, read with care Why sample size matters

When the Buccaneers have the ballEdge CHI · +18 ranks

TB dropback offenseEPA per dropbackCHI pass defense

30th-0.17257 dropbacks

CHI +18

+0.01 allowed267 dropbacks faced12th

TB run gameEPA per rushCHI run defense

8th-0.01234 rushes

-0.09 allowed141 rushes faced12th

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Bears have the ballEdge TB · +8 ranks

CHI dropback offenseEPA per dropbackTB pass defense

10th+0.13313 dropbacks

TB +8

-0.16 allowed294 dropbacks faced2nd

CHI run gameEPA per rushTB run defense

11th-0.02253 rushes

-0.15 allowed163 rushes faced5th

Third downEdge CHI · +16 ranks

TB third-down offensethird-down conversion rateCHI third-down defense

17th39.3%112 third downs

CHI +16

23.8% allowed80 third downs faced1st

CHI third-down offensethird-down conversion rateTB third-down defense

7th44.3%115 third downs

32.0% allowed100 third downs faced4th

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneEdge CHI · +8 ranks

TB red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateCHI red-zone defense

24th52%25 trips

CHI +8

60% allowed20 trips faced16th

CHI red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateTB red-zone defense

18th56%34 trips

TB +8

50% allowed20 trips faced10th

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsEdge TB · +13 ranks

TB big-play offenseexplosive-play rateCHI defense against big plays

11th9.8%491 plays

TB +13

10.0% allowed408 plays faced24th

CHI big-play offenseexplosive-play rateTB defense against big plays

10th10.1%566 plays

7.2% allowed457 plays faced4th

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksEdge CHI · +26 ranks

TB pass protectionsack rateCHI pass rush

28th8.9% sacked257 dropbacks

CHI +26

8.2% of dropbacks267 dropbacks faced2nd

CHI pass protectionsack rateTB pass rush

18th6.1% sacked313 dropbacks

5.4% of dropbacks294 dropbacks faced24th

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversEdge TB · +21 ranks

TB ball securityturnovers per gameCHI takeaway defense

23rd1.5 giveaways a game8 games

1.0 takeaways a game8 games19th

CHI ball securityturnovers per gameTB takeaway defense

23rd1.5 giveaways a game8 games

TB +21

1.8 takeaways a game8 games2nd

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

Sample: TB 8 games, 491 offensive and 457 defensive plays · CHI 8 games, 566 offensive and 408 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

Ted Hurst IIIWR→ Tez Johnson

Benjamin MorrisonRCB→ Keionte Scott

D'Marco JacksonSLB→ Austin Booker

AwayBuccaneers1 next man up · 1 questionable · 2 changes