NFC West · 2026 season

San Francisco49ers

7-1record1stin West#1NFC seed+79point diffW1streak

CowboysSun, Nov 15 · 4:25 PM ETSF -3.5 · O/U 55.5

What changed · Last 4 games (weeks 5-9) vs 4 games before (weeks 1-4)

Biggest improvementRun defenseEPA per rush allowed19th→1st

Over the last 4 games the run defense has allowed -0.34 EPA per rush (78 rushes), 1st among 32 teams over their own last 4. In the 4 games before: -0.06 EPA per rush (103 rushes), 19th.

Season EPA ranks ↓Emerging problemDropback offenseEPA per dropback1st→14th

Over the last 4 games the dropback offense has posted +0.08 EPA per dropback (140 dropbacks), 14th among 32 teams over their own last 4. In the 4 games before: +0.57 EPA per dropback (122 dropbacks), 1st.

Season EPA ranks ↓Usage shiftMalik Mustapha, Sdefensive snap share17%→95%

Malik Mustapha has played 95% of defensive snaps over the last 4 games, up from 17% in the 4 games before. On the field in 4 of 4 and 4 of 4; a game without a snap counts as zero.

Snap counts, week by week ↓

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 7:41 AM ET

The San Francisco 49ers are 7-1 in the 2026 season, 1st in the NFC West and the No. 1 seed in the NFC, with a point differential of +79. On offense they rank 1st in the league in EPA per play (+0.180); on defense they rank 8th (-0.073 allowed). The Pigskin Nightly model gives them a 99% chance to make the playoffs and 22.6% to win the Super Bowl. The San Francisco 49ers play next on the road at the Dallas Cowboys on Sun, Nov 15, 4:25 PM ET (Week 10), on Fox.

What is the San Francisco 49ers record?

7-1, 1st in the NFC West. Home 5-0, road 2-1, division 3-0, conference 4-1, current streak W1. Points: 235 scored, 156 allowed.

Who do the San Francisco 49ers play next?

The San Francisco 49ers play next on the road at the Dallas Cowboys on Sun, Nov 15, 4:25 PM ET (Week 10), on Fox.

What are the San Francisco 49ers' playoff chances?

99% to make the playoffs, 95% to win the NFC West, 67% to earn the No. 1 seed and the bye, 42.1% to win the NFC and 22.6% to win the Super Bowl, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season (projected record 13.5-3.5).

Who is the San Francisco 49ers starting quarterback?

Brock Purdy is first on the 49ers depth chart at quarterback, with Mac Jones behind.

Who is injured for the San Francisco 49ers?

Out, doubtful or on injured reserve: Brandon Aiyuk (WR, out, personal), Deebo Samuel Sr. (WR, out, hamstring), Gracen Halton (DT, out, ankle), Mike Evans (WR, out, achilles), C.J. West (DT, injured reserve, knee), Christian Kirk (WR, injured reserve, knee - meniscus) and Nate Hobbs (CB, injured reserve, groin). Questionable: Deommodore Lenoir (CB, questionable, foot) and Renardo Green (CB, questionable, back).

How good is the San Francisco 49ers offense and defense?

Offense: 1st in EPA per play (+0.180), 1st on dropbacks, 3rd on runs, success rate 52.9%. Defense: 8th in EPA allowed (-0.073), 11th against the pass, 1st against the run.

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “San Francisco 49ers 2026: record, EPA, depth chart and injuries”, https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/49ers (updated 2026-11-10).

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From the 49ers Desk

Open the desk →

The Tape49ers turn five Raiders turnovers and 190 rushing yards into a 38-17 winSan Francisco scored 14 points in the first quarter, took the ball away five times and finished 8-for-13 on third down against Las Vegas.Nov 8, 2026 · 3 min read Scouting Report49ers' No. 1 offense meets a Raiders defense ranked 28th in EPA allowedNov 7, 2026 · 3 min read

The Wire

The Verdict · 2026

The 49ers, judged from every snap

About rightthe record matches the snaps

Real record7-1

Deserved7.1wins

Looking back, not ahead. Deserved wins grade how well a team has played, from every snap of the games already played. They are not a forecast of the games to come. How well they hold up

−0.1 luck wins · 18th luckiest in the NFL · net EPA per snap 2nd

Bars: deserved win probability, from the snaps50% line

Bottom lineEvery result so far matched the play or was a coin flip.

How to read this chart

The track:: solid dot = real wins, ring = deserved wins (the record the snaps earned), on a scale from 0 to 8 games. The colored gap between them is the luck.
The strip:: one tile per game, oldest first, with the opponent and the score. The bar is how often the 49ers would win a replay of the same snaps; above the middle line they deserved to win.
The label:: Earned or Fair loss = the result matched the play; Coin flip = it could have gone either way; Lucky / Robbed = the result went against the play.

One-score games3-0decided by 8 or fewer

Chicken Index46%16th most timid of 28

Flags, net−30win prob. points · 23rd

Bounce & kick luck−8.3points · −1.0 a game

Latest ruling · Week 9

49ers earned it: the snaps said 49ers by 15.9, a deserved win probability of more than 99%.

From the Lab

The lab file

All Lab tools →

Scheme DNAMost pre-snap motion, least shotgun rate in the leagueClosest twin: Jaguars (70%)Clock IQ18th of 32 at managing the clockKyle Shanahan · 8 timeouts burned · 0 halves left on the table Deserved Standings

Real17-1

Deserved17.1-0.9

#1 seed for real, #1 seed deservedSeeds in the NFC, real and as if every game went to the team that deserved it Market vs Snaps+7.0The market underrates themPoints a game the snaps beat the line · 5-3 against the spread Sliding Doors0losses that one coin-flip play could have flipped22 points of win probability lost to those plays, 161 saved in wins

The season, week by week

Offense EPA/playDefense EPA prevented

Wk 8Bye

Bars above the line are good: offense adding expected points, defense taking them away. The middle line is league average zero.Rest days and miles traveled, all 32 →

The road ahead

Playoff odds, all 32 →

Playoff odds49ers7-1 · proj 13.5-3.5 · 1st in NFC99%▲ 1 pts

Win it all 22.6% · likeliest seed No. 1 (67%)Full odds →

Next 5 · schedule leftNo. 25 hardest of 32 · avg opp -0.7 →

Regular season · rank among 32 teams

Where the 49ers stand

Offense

EPA per play+0.1801st

Dropback EPA+0.3061st

Rush EPA+0.0183rd

Success rate52.9%1st

Defense

EPA allowed-0.0738th

Pass EPA allowed-0.00811th

Rush EPA allowed-0.1801st

Success allowed43.7%16th

Pass rate over expected: +0.7% (6th most pass-heavy given down, distance and score). 467 offensive plays logged.

Fantasy points allowed per game: QB 16.1 (24th most) · RB 21.0 (18th most) · WR 27.6 (27th most) · TE 14.5 (13th most). Defense vs position

Who produces

EPA from the nflverse play-by-play model

Quarterback · 262 dropbacksB.Purdy+0.306EPA / dropback+4.9CPOE8.1aDOT55%success

Rushing	Car	Yds	TD	EPA/car	Success
C.McCaffrey RB	102	457	9	+0.13	51%
K.Black RB	68	303	1	-0.08	44%
B.Purdy QB	15	25	0	-0.02	73%
D.Samuel WR	9	78	0	-0.30	44%

Targets	Tgt	Target share	Air share	aDOT	Yds	TD	EPA/tgt
G.Kittle TE	53	23%	23%	8.2	483	5	+0.28
C.McCaffrey RB	45	20%	7%	2.8	270	1	+0.11
M.Evans WR	40	17%	30%	14.6	500	4	+1.02
D.Samuel WR	20	9%	3%	2.5	126	2	+0.39
J.Watkins WR	13	6%	11%	16.5	224	1	+0.95
J.Cowing WR	11	5%	7%	12.1	52	0	-0.53
K.Juszczyk FB	11	5%	5%	7.7	76	2	+0.37
D.Robinson WR	10	4%	6%	10.7	106	1	+0.50

Depth chart, on the field

QuestionableOut / IRFull roster →

Offense3WR 1TE

68RTMcKivitz Cruz Jr.

DefenseBase 4-3 D

27FSBrown Davis

0LCBGreen

56LDEWhite Height

92LDTOdighizuwa Valdez

54MLBWarner Bethune

20NBStout Davis

2RCBLenoir Prysock

97RDEBosa Williams

99RDTBuckner Thompson Jr.

53SLBDugger Gifford

6SSMustapha Sigle

57WLBGreenlaw Wallow

HolderCorliss Waitman Kick ReturnerDeebo Samuel Sr.Long SnapperJon Weeks PunterCorliss Waitman Place KickerEddy Pineiro Punt ReturnerJacob Cowing

Snap counts

Share of team snaps, every weekThis week's starters →

Offense	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	9
Colton McKivitzOL	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Connor ColbyOL	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Dominick PuniOL	100	88	100	100	100	100	100	100
Brock PurdyQB	100	85	100	100	100	100	100	92
Jake BrendelOL	100	85	100	100	100	100	100	92
Trent WilliamsT	100	85	59	100	100	100	100	92
George KittleTE	46	48	85	91	92	89	91	78
Jordan WatkinsWR			28	38	37	76	76	77
Christian McCaffreyRB	55	52	83	74	82	85	52	68
Kyle JuszczykFB	51	44	56	41		56	48	52
Demarcus RobinsonWR	63	31						51
Luke FarrellTE	71	54	33	44	60	48	39	45
Brandin CooksWR				12	40	52	68	44
Jacob CowingWR	8	46	31	32	43	24	39	25

Defense	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	9
Fred WarnerLB	87	83	100	98	100	100	100	100
Dre GreenlawLB	66	69	71	85	41		91	98
Renardo GreenCB	100	100	90	98	100	100	99	86
Deommodore LenoirDB	100	95	83	98	100	100	99	86
Malik MustaphaS	10	5	22	32	100	100	99	82
Nick BosaDL	59	68						78
Upton StoutCB	59	58	63	55	48	42		74
DeForest BucknerDL								68
Ji'Ayir BrownS	90	95	95	97	100	100	100	64
Osa OdighizuwaDL	59	69	82	77	75	75	72	60
Marques SigleS	100	100	83	68				56
Romello HeightDL	49	54		56	59	60	60	44
Keion WhiteDL	49	54	69	74	68	75	54	42
Mykel WilliamsDL					37	45	49	40

With / Without

All 49ers splits →

Edge rusherRomello Height55% of snapsSmall sample

+0.29Observed difference
EPA allowed, better with

EPA allowed-0.121+0.169

Success allowed41.6%53.8%

Points allowed18.030.0

With 7 games · 401 playsWithout 1 game · 80 plays (Wk 3)

Opponents avg rating

With

LAR

MIA

DEN

SEA

WSH

ATL

LV-1.2

Without

ARI-5.8

Opponents in the games with him were 4.6 pts stronger on average

Other starters out

With games:Deebo Samuel Sr. WR · 3/7, Jordan Watkins WR · 2/7, Mike Evans WR · 2/7

Team trend EPA/play allowed, up to 4 games each side of his first absence

Before (Wks 1-2)-0.133From Wk 3 on (Wks 3-6)-0.025

Wide receiverJordan Watkins55% of snapsSmall sample

-0.16Observed difference
EPA/play, better without

EPA / play+0.143+0.298

Success51.7%56.8%

Points / game28.831.0

With 6 games · 356 playsWithout 2 games · 111 plays (Wks 1, 2)

Opponents avg rating

With

ARI

DEN

SEA

WSH

ATL

LV-2.0

Without

LAR

MIA-1.1

Opponents in the games with him were 0.9 pts weaker on average

Other starters out

With games:Deebo Samuel Sr. WR · 3/6, Mike Evans WR · 2/6, Romello Height EDGE · 1/6

Team trend EPA/play, up to 4 games each side of his first absence

No games before his first absence (Wk 1)From Wk 1 on (Wks 1-4)+0.291

Wide receiverMike Evans54% of snapsOutSmall sample

+0.11Observed difference
EPA/play, better with

EPA / play+0.209+0.104

Success52.8%53.1%

Points / game29.529.0

With 6 games · 337 playsWithout 2 games · 130 plays (Wks 7, 9)

Opponents avg rating

With

LAR

MIA

ARI

DEN

SEA

WSH-1.2

Without

ATL

LV-3.5

Opponents in the games with him were 2.2 pts stronger on average

Other starters out

Without games:Deebo Samuel Sr. WR · 2/2

With games:Jordan Watkins WR · 2/6, Deebo Samuel Sr. WR · 1/6, Romello Height EDGE · 1/6

Team trend EPA/play, up to 4 games each side of his first absence

Before (Wks 3-6)+0.166From Wk 7 on (Wks 7-9)+0.104

Wide receiverDeebo Samuel Sr.58% of snapsOut

+0.07Observed difference
EPA/play, better with

EPA / play+0.209+0.137

Success52.7%53.2%

Points / game30.827.0

With 5 games · 277 playsWithout 3 games · 190 plays (Wks 6, 7, 9)

Opponents avg rating

With

LAR

MIA

ARI

DEN

SEA-1.0

Without

WSH

ATL

LV-3.2

Opponents in the games with him were 2.2 pts stronger on average

Other starters out

Without games:Mike Evans WR · 2/3

With games:Jordan Watkins WR · 2/5, Romello Height EDGE · 1/5

Team trend EPA/play, up to 4 games each side of his first absence

Before (Wks 2-5)+0.219From Wk 6 on (Wks 6-9)+0.137

No "without" sample yet

Never missed a game

Key 49ers starters who have taken the field in every game so far. A split appears here once one of them sits out a full game.

Colton McKivitzTackle · 8/8 games100%
Brock PurdyQuarterback · 8/8 games97%
Renardo GreenCornerback · 8/8 games97%
Fred WarnerLinebacker · 8/8 games96%
Deommodore LenoirCornerback · 8/8 games95%
Ji'Ayir BrownSafety · 8/8 games93%
Trent WilliamsTackle · 8/8 games92%
George KittleTight end · 8/8 games78%

Bar = average share of his unit's snaps · all 11 starters →

Observed differences between groups of games, not the player's causal effect. Why sample size matters · What EPA is

Injury report

Whole league

Out, doubtful or on IR

Brandon AiyukWR · #11 · PersonalOut
Deebo Samuel Sr.WR · #19 · HamstringOut
Gracen HaltonDT · #93 · AnkleOut
Mike EvansWR · #5 · AchillesOut
C.J. WestDT · #99 · KneeIR
Christian KirkWR · #3 · Knee - MeniscusIR
Nate HobbsCB · #22 · GroinIR

Questionable

Deommodore LenoirCB · #2 · FootQuestionable
Renardo GreenCB · #0 · BackQuestionable

NFC West

Full standings

49ersDiv 3-0 · Home 5-0 · Road 2-17-1+79 2

SeahawksDiv 2-1 · Home 4-2 · Road 1-25-4+40 3

RamsDiv 0-2 · Home 2-3 · Road 3-15-4+33 4

CardinalsDiv 1-3 · Home 0-3 · Road 3-33-6-77