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The Verdict2026 · AFC South · through Week 9

Texans logoHouston TexansThe Verdict

Texans are 3-5; the play says 4.2 wins. That record is 1.2 wins behind how they have played, the kind of gap that usually closes in their favor. They are 1-4 in one-score games. On fourth down, DeMeco Ryans kicked away 9 of 14 situations our model called a go.

This week's issueLeague Luck IndexHow we judge
Luck wins · 29th of 32−1.23-5 real · 4.2 deserved · 4.4 Pythagorean
Luck points · 13th of 32+1.1fumble bounces +4.3 · opponents' kicks −3.2
Chicken Index · 8th of 3264%DeMeco Ryans · 9.1 expected points lost on 42 graded calls
Flags net · 20th of 32−13.9 WP64 flags for 544 yards against · 60 drawn

Every game, judged

latest first

Bottom lineNone of these 8 games went against the play; 3 were coin flips.

How to read this chart
Each card is one game.
Under each team: its success rate (share of snaps that kept the offense on schedule) and EPA per play (expected points added: how much each snap improved its scoring chances; 0 is average).
The split bar is the deserved win probability:
how often each team would win if the game were replayed from the same snaps. Away team on the left, home team on the right, 50-50 at the tick in the middle. The longer side played better.
The stamp is the ruling.
Earned: the winner also played better. Coin flip: the winner deserved it less than 60% of the time. Robbed: the loser deserved to win at least 70% of the time (when this team won one of those, it reads Lucky).
Luck pts
(full cards): real margin minus deserved margin; plus means the scoreboard was kinder than the play.
Week 9EarnedGame file →
Texans logoTexans45% success · +0.28 EPA/play
4422
Chargers logoChargers36% success · −0.14 EPA/play

Texans earned it: the snaps said Texans by 20.7, a deserved win probability of more than 99%.

Deserved marginHOU by 20.7
Real marginHOU by 22
Luck pts HOU+0.6
Luck pts LAC−3.9

The swingQ2 4:37 · HOU · +18 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep right to 1-T.Dell for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Week 7EarnedGame file →
Giants logoGiants41% success · +0.24 EPA/play
2721
Texans logoTexans38% success · −0.10 EPA/play

Giants earned it: the snaps said Giants by 15.4, a deserved win probability of more than 99%.

Deserved marginNYG by 15.4
Real marginNYG by 6
Luck pts NYG−4.4
Luck pts HOU+6.2

The swingOT 8:23 · NYG · +26 pts of win probability. 44-C.Skattebo up the middle to HOU 30 for 42 yards (3-K.Lassiter).

The luck sheet

All 32 →
One-score games1-4Decided by 8 points or fewer. Over a season teams win about half of these.
Fumble bounces+4.3 ptsKept 3 of 5 own fumbles; won 4 of 7 by opponents. League offenses keep 53%.
Opponents' kicks−3.2 ptsOpponents made 16 of 20 field goals against an expected 15.2, and 18 of 18 extra points.
Own kicking+8.6 ptsMade 18 of 19 field goals against 15.1 expected by distance. Skill, not luck: not in the luck total.
Net EPA per play+0.04212th of 32 · offense minus defense, passes and runs
Our picks on them4-3Our pregame model in Texans games. All receipts

Coach on trial

DeMeco Ryans · 42 graded fourth downs · went for it 8×

Bottom lineThe calls against the model in this list cost 8.5 expected points in total.

How to read this chart
Each row is one fourth down:
distance, spot, score, what the coach chose and what our model would have done (a clear call, a lean or a toss-up).
The number on the right
is what the choice cost in expected points (EP, what a possession is worth on average from that spot): −1.00 means about a point thrown away. ✓ = the coach made the model's call.
The result
is what happened next; the grade judges the decision, not the outcome.
  1. 1HOU · 4th & 1DeMeco Ryans chose Field goal at opp 7, Wk 6 Q2 4:18, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: good.−2.03 EP
  2. 2HOU · 4th & 1DeMeco Ryans chose Field goal at opp 40, Wk 2 Q3 7:33, down 7. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: missed.−1.31 EP
  3. 3HOU · 4th & 1DeMeco Ryans chose Punt at own 29, Wk 6 Q2 11:20, up 7. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.21 EP
  4. 4HOU · 4th & 1DeMeco Ryans chose Punt at own 23, Wk 7 Q3 8:12, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.16 EP
  5. 5HOU · 4th & 1DeMeco Ryans chose Punt at own 17, Wk 9 Q2 13:39, up 7. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.15 EP
  6. 6HOU · 4th & 2DeMeco Ryans chose Punt at own 39, Wk 1 Q2 2:22, down 3. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−0.81 EP
  7. 7HOU · 4th & 4DeMeco Ryans chose Field goal at opp 6, Wk 3 Q4 7:36, down 9. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: good.−0.46 EP
  8. 8HOU · 4th & 4DeMeco Ryans chose Go for it at opp 16, Wk 2 Q2 13:28, tied. Model: Field goal (lean). Result: stopped.−0.34 EP

Brave and right

  1. 1HOU · 4th & 1DeMeco Ryans chose Go for it at own 42, Wk 7 Q3 3:18, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
  2. 2HOU · 4th & 1DeMeco Ryans chose Go for it at own 37, Wk 1 Q3 2:50, down 6. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
  3. 3HOU · 4th & 1DeMeco Ryans chose Go for it at opp 18, Wk 2 Q2 6:58, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: stopped.✓ EP
  4. 4HOU · 4th & 1DeMeco Ryans chose Go for it at opp 31, Wk 3 Q1 9:47, tied. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: stopped.✓ EP
How to read this chart
Every fourth down this season.
Go EP, Punt EP and FG EP are the expected points of each option from that spot: the highest is the model's call.
Cost:
how many expected points the coach's choice gave up against the best one; ✓ = he made the best call. Late-game and lopsided situations are listed but not graded.
SituationWkChoiceModelGo EPPunt EPFG EPCostResult
4th & 6 · opp 38 · Q1 3:169Field goalField goal0.60-0.131.03✓good
4th & 1 · own 17 · Q2 13:399PuntGo for it-0.65-1.80–−1.15punted
4th & 11 · own 37 · Q2 1:439Puntnot graded-1.44-0.75–punted
4th & 17 · opp 45 · Q3 4:549Puntnot graded-0.59-0.22-0.16punted
4th & 4 · opp 13 · Q4 8:539Field goalnot graded2.66–2.84good
4th & 9 · opp 23 · Q4 2:239Field goalnot graded1.26–2.52good
4th & 5 · opp 40 · Q1 11:457Field goalField goal (toss-up)0.63-0.150.71✓good
4th & 7 · own 34 · Q1 5:287PuntPunt-1.28-0.87–✓punted
4th & 21 · own 35 · Q2 15:007PuntPunt-1.98-0.83–✓punted
4th & 6 · opp 39 · Q2 9:087Field goalField goal0.54-0.140.88✓good
4th & 1 · own 23 · Q3 8:127PuntGo for it-0.27-1.43–−1.16punted
4th & 1 · own 42 · Q3 3:187Go for itGo for it0.90-0.56–✓converted
4th & 13 · own 41 · Q3 2:207PuntPunt-1.31-0.59–✓punted
4th & 10 · own 34 · Q4 6:517PuntPunt-1.56-0.87–✓punted
4th & 10 · own 35 · OT 9:057Puntnot graded-1.50-0.83–punted
4th & 7 · own 9 · Q1 11:216PuntPunt-2.97-2.36–✓punted
4th & 1 · own 29 · Q2 11:206PuntGo for it0.10-1.11–−1.21punted
4th & 1 · opp 7 · Q2 4:186Field goalGo for it4.94–2.92−2.03good
4th & 4 · own 24 · Q3 5:386PuntPunt (toss-up)-1.43-1.38–✓punted
4th & 1 · opp 32 · Q4 0:036Field goalnot graded2.55-0.111.82good
4th & 5 · own 49 · Q1 9:125PuntGo for it-0.06-0.35–−0.29punted
4th & 13 · opp 27 · Q1 2:275Field goalField goal0.73–2.27✓good
4th & 2 · opp 17 · Q2 13:375Field goalGo for it3.01–2.75−0.26good
4th & 6 · opp 7 · Q2 6:595Field goalField goal (toss-up)2.87–2.92✓good
4th & 8 · opp 35 · Q2 1:205Field goalnot graded0.56-0.111.46good
4th & 24 · opp 45 · Q4 5:565Puntnot graded-0.77-0.22-0.16punted
4th & 12 · opp 33 · Q1 1:534Field goalField goal0.39-0.111.70✓good
4th & 5 · own 29 · Q2 10:304PuntPunt (toss-up)-1.31-1.11–✓punted
4th & 7 · own 20 · Q2 7:224PuntPunt-2.20-1.61–✓punted
4th & 3 · opp 20 · Q2 2:084Field goalField goal (toss-up)2.42–2.65✓good
4th & 1 · opp 36 · Q2 0:024Field goalnot graded2.29-0.121.32good
4th & 8 · own 42 · Q3 5:124PuntPunt-0.89-0.56–✓punted
4th & 14 · own 31 · Q4 8:514PuntPunt-2.00-1.01–✓punted
4th & 11 · own 28 · Q1 13:323PuntPunt-2.03-1.16–✓punted
4th & 1 · opp 31 · Q1 9:473Go for itGo for it2.62-0.111.92✓stopped
4th & 23 · own 19 · Q1 1:463PuntPunt-3.11-1.67–✓punted
4th & 2 · own 39 · Q2 0:393Puntnot graded0.14-0.67–punted
4th & 6 · own 5 · Q3 10:013PuntPunt-3.13-2.68–✓punted
4th & 4 · own 34 · Q3 6:233PuntGo for it (toss-up)-0.79-0.87–−0.08punted
4th & 4 · opp 6 · Q4 7:363Field goalGo for it3.39–2.92−0.46good
4th & 8 · own 15 · Q1 13:192PuntPunt-2.66-1.93–✓punted
4th & 5 · own 13 · Q1 8:472PuntPunt-2.38-2.07–✓punted
4th & 4 · opp 16 · Q2 13:282Go for itField goal2.44–2.78−0.34stopped
4th & 1 · opp 18 · Q2 6:582Go for itGo for it3.54–2.72✓stopped
4th & 13 · opp 19 · Q2 1:202Field goalnot graded1.49–2.69good
4th & 10 · own 36 · Q3 14:402PuntPunt-1.44-0.79–✓punted
4th & 1 · opp 40 · Q3 7:332Field goalGo for it2.02-0.150.71−1.31missed
4th & 11 · opp 27 · Q3 0:392Field goalnot graded0.84–2.27good
4th & 24 · own 37 · Q4 10:502Puntnot graded-1.92-0.75–punted
4th & 11 · own 40 · Q4 8:302Puntnot graded-1.25-0.63–punted
4th & 1 · own 41 · Q4 3:202Go for itnot graded0.84-0.59–stopped
4th & 17 · opp 19 · Q4 0:192Go for itnot graded1.20–2.69stopped
4th & 2 · own 39 · Q2 2:221PuntGo for it0.14-0.67–−0.81punted
4th & 20 · own 24 · Q3 13:191PuntPunt-2.69-1.38–✓punted
4th & 5 · own 9 · Q3 8:101PuntPunt-2.67-2.36–✓punted
4th & 1 · own 37 · Q3 2:501Go for itGo for it0.60-0.75–✓converted
4th & 1 · opp 22 · Q3 0:041Go for itGo for it3.25–2.57✓converted
4th & 4 · opp 39 · Q4 6:481Field goalGo for it (toss-up)0.89-0.140.88−0.02good
4th & 9 · own 37 · Q4 3:241Puntnot graded-1.29-0.75–punted

Flags against

Ledger →

Bottom lineThe biggest here: Defensive Pass Interference on HOU in Week 1, worth +15 points of win probability to BUF.

How to read this chart
Each row is one flag:
the team in red was penalized, the team in green was helped.
The number on the right
is how much that flag moved the helped team's chance of winning, in points (100 = a whole game). When the play still counted, the play is included, so treat it as an upper bound.
Touchdown erased
marks a score wiped off by the flag, with the expected points it cost.
  1. 1Defensive Pass InterferenceHOU → helped BUF · Wk 1 Q2 4:13 · 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to 2-D.Moore (3-K.Lassiter). PENALTY on HOU-3-K.Lassiter, Defensive Pass Interference, 46…+14.8 WP
  2. 2Offensive HoldingHOU → helped DAL · Wk 4 Q4 3:30 · (Shotgun) 4-W.Marks left end to DAL 15 for 8 yards (24-M.Hooker). PENALTY on HOU-69-E.Ingram, Offensive Holding, 10 yards,…+14.3 WP
  3. 3Defensive HoldingHOU → helped DAL · Wk 4 Q3 6:59 · (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to 19-R.Flournoy (5-J.Pitre) [51-W.Anderson]. PENALTY on HOU-3-K.Lassiter,…+8.7 WP
  4. 4Illegal Use of HandsHOU → helped DAL · Wk 4 Q2 9:34 · (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams left guard to DAL 27 for 8 yards (96-L.Hall; 35-J.Hansen). PENALTY on HOU-96-L.Hall, Illegal Use of…+7.9 WP
  5. 5TrippingHOU → helped JAX · Wk 6 Q4 8:36 · (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked ob at JAX 46 for 0 yards (2-J.Lewis). PENALTY on HOU-4-W.Marks, Tripping, 15 yards, enforced at JAX…+6.7 WP
FoulFlagsYardsWP given
Offensive Holding1514547.5
False Start126025.3
Defensive Pass Interference36322.2
Defensive Holding4189.8
Illegal Use of Hands157.9
Tripping1156.7
Chop Block1155.9
Defensive Offside2104.8

Flags drawn

  1. 1Defensive Too Many Men on FieldJAX → helped HOU · Wk 6 Q3 13:06 · 38-K.Kroeger punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Touchback. PENALTY on JAX, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, 5…+9.5 WP
  2. 2Illegal Blindside BlockBUF → helped HOU · Wk 1 Q3 13:19 · 38-K.Kroeger punts 48 yards to BUF 28, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 19-G.Dortch pushed ob at BUF 36 for 8 yards (8-C.Stover;…+9.3 WP
  3. 3Face MaskLAC → helped HOU · Wk 9 Q1 13:14 · (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short middle to 86-D.Schultz (2-E.Molden). PENALTY on LAC-4-T.Still, Face Mask,…+8.0 WP
  4. 4Defensive Pass InterferenceJAX → helped HOU · Wk 6 Q3 1:02 · (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep right to 12-N.Collins (4-Jar.Jones). PENALTY on JAX-4-Jar.Jones, Defensive Pass…+7.6 WP
  5. 5Intentional GroundingDAL → helped HOU · Wk 4 Q2 9:44 · (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right [90-J.Clowney]. PENALTY on DAL-4-D.Prescott, Intentional Grounding, 14 yards,…+6.3 WP

Garbage Time Tax

12.7% of the offense's yards came with the game decided · 30th most of 32

Bottom lineDalton Schultz: 100 of 383 yards (26%) came with the game decided.

How to read this chart
One bar per player,
as long as his season yards (passing, rushing or receiving).
Blue = yards with the game still alive.
Striped amber = garbage time: yards gained when the offense's chance of winning was already under 10% or over 90%, so the game was basically decided.
The percentage
is the garbage-time share of his yards (amber from 30% up).
C.J. StroudHOU · passing · 2,251 yds14%
Nico CollinsHOU · receiving · 384 yds3%
Dalton SchultzHOU · receiving · 383 yds26%
Woody MarksHOU · rushing · 341 yds24%
Jaylin NoelHOU · receiving · 331 yds12%
Kayshon BoutteHOU · receiving · 319 yds25%
Xavier HutchinsonHOU · receiving · 287 yds6%

Our picks on the Texans

Receipts →
  1. 1Week 9We gave the Texans 69% at chargers. 44-22 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
  2. 2Week 7We gave the Texans 61% at home against giants. 27-21 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Wrong
  3. 3Week 6We gave the Texans 31% at jaguars. 34-31 final, a win. (rebuilt)Wrong
  4. 4Week 5We gave the Texans 50% at titans. 26-3 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
  5. 5Week 4We gave the Texans 45% at home against cowboys. 34-30 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
  6. 6Week 3We gave the Texans 52% at colts. 17-19 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Wrong
  7. 7Week 2We gave the Texans 44% at home against bengals. 20-6 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
Cite thisPigskin Nightly, "Houston Texans verdict, 2026", https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/texans/verdict (2026)CC BY 4.0Data licenseCSVJSONEmbedHow it works

Every number on this page is computed from the 2026 nflverse play-by-play by our own models. Nothing is hand-picked.