Vikings 23, Saints 13: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 5 · Sun, Oct 11 · Caesars SuperdomeFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
MIN	3	3	7	10	23
NO	0	7	6	0	13

Home · 3-5New OrleansSaints13

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 6:03 PM ET

The Minnesota Vikings beat the New Orleans Saints 23-13 on Sun, Oct 11 at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, LA (Week 5, 2026 season). Records after the game: Vikings 6-2, Saints 3-5. J.Jefferson (MIN) led all players with +5.5 EPA on 7 targets.

Who won Vikings vs Saints?

The Minnesota Vikings won 23-13. By quarter: MIN 3-3-7-10, NO 0-7-6-0.

Who was the best player in Vikings vs Saints?

By expected points added: J.Jefferson (MIN, +5.5 EPA on 7 targets), C.Olave (NO, +3.0 EPA on 6 targets) and K.Murray (MIN, +2.9 EPA on 38 dropbacks).

What was the turning point of Vikings vs Saints?

The biggest swing in win probability (32 points toward the Saints) came in Q3 at 2:34: (Shotgun) K.Murray pass short left to M.Price to NO 12 for 7 yards (M.Emerson; P.Werner). FUMBLES (M.Emerson), RECOVERED by NO-J.Sanker at NO 13. J.Sanker for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN. D.Carlson extra point is No Good, Wide Left, Center-C.Adomitis, Holder-R.Wright.

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Vikings 23, Saints 13: Week 5 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-10-11-min-at-no (updated 2026-11-10).

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The Verdict

Week 5 issue →

Week 5EarnedGame file →

Vikings45% success · +0.08 EPA/play

2313

Saints35% success · −0.35 EPA/play

MIN >99% deserveddeserved <1% NO

Vikings earned it: the snaps said Vikings by 14.7, a deserved win probability of more than 99%.

Deserved marginMIN by 14.7

Real marginMIN by 10

Luck pts MIN−1.4

Luck pts NO−0.1

The swingQ3 2:49 · MIN · −37 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 4-M.Price to NO 12 for 7 yards (22-M.Emerson; 20-P.Werner). FUMBLES (22-M.Emerson), RECOVERED by NO-7-J.Sanker at NO 13. 7-J.Sanker for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Flags that moved this game

1Offensive HoldingMIN → helped NO · Wk 5 Q2 4:41 · 1-K.Murray scrambles left end ran ob at NO 43 for 4 yards (22-M.Emerson). PENALTY on MIN-72-R.Van Demark, Offensive Holding, 10…+3.8 WP
2Illegal FormationMIN → helped NO · Wk 5 Q1 10:23 · (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson to NO 13 for 9 yards (20-P.Werner). PENALTY on MIN-72-R.Van Demark,…+3.4 WP

Fourth downs our model disagreed with

1MIN · 4th & 2Kevin O'Connell chose Punt at own 40, Wk 5 Q2 6:15, down 4. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−0.83 EP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA127 plays, one strand2 lead changes · 6 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewJohn Hussey10 accepted flags in this game · 13.9 a game this season (about league average)Market vs SnapsLine: MIN by 2.5 · Snaps: MIN by 14.7Vikings covered; the snaps agree

23@13

Week 5

If the 55-yard kick had missed

Saints after the play9%what really happened

Q4 7:06 16-W.Reichard 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-19-B.Thorson.

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

NO ▲MIN ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+32%Q3 2:34 · for NO(Shotgun) K.Murray pass short left to M.Price to NO 12 for 7 yards (M.Emerson; P.Werner). FUMBLES (M.Emerson), RECOVERED by NO-J.Sanker at NO 13. J.Sanker for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN. D.Carlson extra point is No Good, Wide Left, Center-C.Adomitis, Holder-R.Wright.
+16%Q3 15:00 · for MINW.Reichard kicks 59 yards from MIN 35 to NO 6. J.Price to NO 29 for 23 yards (J.Golday). FUMBLES (J.Golday), RECOVERED by MIN-J.Jones at NO 37.
+16%Q1 0:50 · for NO(Shotgun) A.Jones up the middle to NO 7 for 3 yards (K.Boyd). FUMBLES (K.Boyd), RECOVERED by NO-C.Young at NO 7. C.Young to NO 34 for 27 yards (T.Felton).
+10%Q3 12:06 · for MIN(Shotgun) K.Murray pass short left to J.Jefferson for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. W.Reichard extra point is GOOD, Center-A.DePaola, Holder-B.Thorson.
+8%Q2 13:01 · for NO(Shotgun) T.Shough pass short right to C.Olave to MIN 36 for 5 yards (B.Cashman).

Every drive, on the field

NO attacks →← MIN attacks

Q1 15:00FG9p · 51y · 5:56
Q1 9:04PUNT3p · 1y · 1:27
Q1 7:37FUM11p · 63y · 6:56
Q1 0:41TD15p · 66y · 7:18
Q2 8:23PUNT3p · 8y · 2:16
Q2 6:07PUNT3p · 5y · 1:26
Q2 4:41PUNT3p · -4y · 1:43
Q2 2:58PUNT3p · 2y · 1:09
Q2 1:49FG7p · 33y · 1:49
Q3 15:00FUM0p · 0y · 0:07
Q3 14:53TD6p · 37y · 2:47
Q3 12:06INT6p · 11y · 4:31
Q3 7:35FUM9p · 24y · 5:01
Q3 2:34TD6p · 70y · 3:28
Q4 14:06PUNT3p · -14y · 1:17
Q4 12:49FG9p · 31y · 5:48
Q4 7:01DOWNS7p · 32y · 2:04
Q4 4:57PUNT3p · 8y · 1:04
Q4 3:53INT3p · -2y · 1:04
Q4 2:49END5p · 13y · 2:49

Vikings10 drives6scoring drives (3 TD)60%drives ending in pointsOWN 40avg starting field position3three-and-outs2turnovers incl. downs

Saints9 drives1scoring drives (1 TD)11%drives ending in pointsOWN 22avg starting field position4three-and-outs4turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
9:04Field goalW.Reichard 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-A.DePaola, Holder-B.Thorson.3–0
Q2
8:23Touchdown(Shotgun) K.Miller up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-C.Adomitis, Holder-R.Wright.3–7
Q2
0:00Field goalW.Reichard 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-A.DePaola, Holder-B.Thorson.6–7
Q3
12:06Touchdown(Shotgun) K.Murray pass short left to J.Jefferson for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. W.Reichard extra point is GOOD, Center-A.DePaola, Holder-B.Thorson.13–7
Q3
2:34Touchdown(Shotgun) K.Murray pass short left to M.Price to NO 12 for 7 yards (M.Emerson; P.Werner). FUMBLES (M.Emerson), RECOVERED by NO-J.Sanker at NO 13. J.Sanker for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN. D.Carlson extra point is No Good, Wide Left, Center-C.Adomitis, Holder-R.Wright.13–13
Q4
14:06TouchdownA.Jones up the middle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. W.Reichard extra point is GOOD, Center-A.DePaola, Holder-B.Thorson.20–13
Q4
7:01Field goalW.Reichard 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-A.DePaola, Holder-B.Thorson.23–13

Team stats

MINvsNO

364Total yards142

211Passing yards87

153Rushing yards55

5.4Yards per play3.3

18First downs9

9-18 · 50%Third down2-10 · 20%

0-0Fourth down2-3

2-4Red zone TDs1-1

24/30Comp / att16/25

4.3Yards per carry3.2

2Turnovers3

2 (−18 yds)Sacks allowed1 (−9 yds)

4 for 30Penalties6 for 41

39:37Possession20:23

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play-0.104-0.351

Dropback EPA+0.075-0.459

Rush EPA-0.367-0.185

Success rate45%35%

Explosive plays70

Plays6443

Who moved the needle

J.JeffersonTargets: 7+5.5

C.OlaveTargets: 6+3.0

K.MurrayDropbacks: 38+2.9

G.BartholomewTargets: 6+1.6

T.FeltonTargets: 3+0.8

D.VeleTargets: 6+0.3

Cost their side the most

T.ShoughDropbacks: 26-11.9

M.PriceTargets: 4-9.9

A.JonesCarries: 25-7.8

Box score

Minnesota Vikings

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Kyler MurrayQB	24/30	229	7.6	1	0	2-18	81.9	109.6

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Aaron Jones Sr.RB	25	113	4.5	1	19
Kyler MurrayQB	10	51	5.1	0	18
Justin JeffersonWR	1	-11	-11.0	0	-11

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Justin JeffersonWR	6	7	79	13.2	1	21
Gavin BartholomewTE	5	6	33	6.6	0	13
Jeshaun JonesWR	1	1	32	32.0	0	32
Tai FeltonWR	2	3	27	13.5	0	23
Myles PriceWR	3	4	20	6.7	0	9
DeeJay DallasRB	1	1	11	11.0	0	11
Ben YurosekTE	1	1	10	10.0	0	10
T.J. HockensonTE	1	1	7	7.0	0	7
Demond ClaiborneRB	1	1	6	6.0	0	6
Aaron Jones Sr.RB	3	3	4	1.3	0	2
Jauan JenningsWR	0	1	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Blake CashmanLB	9	5	0	1	0	1
Joshua MetellusS	5	4	0	0	0	0
Byron Murphy Jr.CB	3	3	0	1	2	0
Theo JacksonS	3	3	0	0	0	0
James PierreCB	3	3	0	0	0	0
Andrew Van GinkelLB	3	2	1	2	0	1
Jalen RedmondDT	3	2	0	1	0	0
Levi Drake RodriguezDT	3	1	0	1	0	1
Isaiah RodgersCB	2	1	0	0	1	0
Caleb BanksDT	2	1	0	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Will ReichardPK	3/3	100.0	55	2/2	11

New Orleans Saints

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Tyler ShoughQB	16/25	96	3.8	0	2	1-9	41.4	38.1

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Kendre MillerRB	10	30	3.0	1	9
CJ DonaldsonRB	4	13	3.3	0	7
Alvin KamaraRB	3	12	4.0	0	6

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	LONG
Chris OlaveWR	4	6	46	11.5	16
Devaughn VeleWR	4	6	26	6.5	10
Juwan JohnsonTE	4	5	16	4.0	6
Noah FantTE	1	1	7	7.0	7
CJ DonaldsonRB	1	1	7	7.0	7
Bryce LanceWR	0	3	0	0.0	0
Alvin KamaraRB	2	2	-6	-3.0	-1

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	QB HTS
Justin ReidS	10	6	0	0	0
Pete WernerLB	10	4	0	0	0
Danny StutsmanLB	9	4	0	0	0
Jonas SankerS	7	5	0	0	0
Julian BlackmonS	5	3	0	0	0
Carl GrandersonDE	5	2	1.5	2	2
Colby WoodenDT	5	2	0	1	1
Quincy RileyCB	4	3	0	0	0
Kool-Aid McKinstryCB	4	3	0	0	0
Cameron JordanDE	4	1	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Daniel Carlson	0/0	0.0	0	1/2	1

Before kickoff · Regular season through week 4 · rank out of 32

Where it was expected to be decided

1Vikings pass defense vs Saints dropback offense
The Vikings' pass defense ranks 1st in EPA per dropback (-0.16 allowed, 153 dropbacks faced) and faces a Saints dropback offense ranked 20th (+0.02, 198 dropbacks).
20thNO offense19 spots apart1stMIN defense
2Vikings ball security vs Saints takeaway defense
The Vikings' ball security ranks 4th in turnovers per game (0.5 giveaways a game, 4 games) against a Saints takeaway defense ranked 27th (0.5 takeaways a game, 4 games).
4thMIN offense23 spots apart27thNO defenseSmall sample, read with care Why sample size matters
3Vikings pass rush vs Saints pass protection
The Vikings' pass rush ranks 1st in sack rate (10.5% of dropbacks, 153 dropbacks faced) and faces a Saints pass protection ranked 18th (6.1% sacked, 198 dropbacks).
18thNO offense17 spots apart1stMIN defense

When the Vikings have the ballEdge MIN · +10 ranks

MIN dropback offenseEPA per dropbackNO pass defense

24th-0.07132 dropbacks

+0.17 allowed138 dropbacks faced26th

MIN run gameEPA per rushNO run defense

22nd-0.14102 rushes

MIN +10

+0.11 allowed107 rushes faced32nd

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Saints have the ballEdge MIN · +19 ranks

NO dropback offenseEPA per dropbackMIN pass defense

20th+0.02198 dropbacks

MIN +19

-0.16 allowed153 dropbacks faced1st

NO run gameEPA per rushMIN run defense

17th-0.0893 rushes

MIN +13

-0.22 allowed84 rushes faced4th

Third downNo big edge

MIN third-down offensethird-down conversion rateNO third-down defense

21st36.7%60 third downs

47.6% allowed42 third downs faced25th

NO third-down offensethird-down conversion rateMIN third-down defense

5th50.0%62 third downs

24.5% allowed53 third downs faced2nd

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneNo big edge

MIN red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateNO red-zone defense

27th44%9 trips

63% allowed19 trips faced20th

NO red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateMIN red-zone defense

8th71%17 trips

18% allowed11 trips faced1st

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsEdge MIN · +9 ranks

MIN big-play offenseexplosive-play rateNO defense against big plays

26th7.3%234 plays

10.6% allowed245 plays faced24th

NO big-play offenseexplosive-play rateMIN defense against big plays

27th7.2%291 plays

MIN +9

9.7% allowed237 plays faced18th

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksEdge MIN · +17 ranks

MIN pass protectionsack rateNO pass rush

31st9.8% sacked132 dropbacks

NO +13

5.8% of dropbacks138 dropbacks faced18th

NO pass protectionsack rateMIN pass rush

18th6.1% sacked198 dropbacks

MIN +17

10.5% of dropbacks153 dropbacks faced1st

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversEdge MIN · +23 ranks

MIN ball securityturnovers per gameNO takeaway defense

4th0.5 giveaways a game4 games

MIN +23

0.5 takeaways a game4 games27th

NO ball securityturnovers per gameMIN takeaway defense

26th2.0 giveaways a game4 games

MIN +23

1.8 takeaways a game4 games3rd

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

Sample: MIN 4 games, 234 offensive and 237 defensive plays · NO 4 games, 291 offensive and 245 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

Carson WentzQB→ Kyler Murray

Jordan MasonRB→ Aaron Jones Sr.

Jordan AddisonWR→ Tai Felton

T.J. HockensonTE→ Gavin Bartholomew

Christian DarrisawLT→ Ryan Van Demark

Caleb BanksNT→ Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins

James PierreRCB→ Theo Jackson

Alvin KamaraRB→ CJ Donaldson

Jordyn TysonWR→ Bryce Lance

Kelvin Banks Jr.LT→ Erik McCoy

William ShermanC→ Asim Richards