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The Verdict2026 · AFC East · through Week 9

Jets logoNew York JetsThe Verdict

Jets are 2-7; the play says 4.5 wins. That record is 2.5 wins behind how they have played, the kind of gap that usually closes in their favor. They are 1-5 in one-score games. On fourth down, Aaron Glenn kicked away 6 of 11 situations our model called a go.

This week's issueLeague Luck IndexHow we judge
Luck wins · 32nd of 32−2.52-7 real · 4.5 deserved · 3.4 Pythagorean
Luck points · 15th of 32−0.9fumble bounces −1.2 · opponents' kicks +0.3
Chicken Index · 15th of 3255%Aaron Glenn · 5.5 expected points lost on 48 graded calls
Flags net · 32nd of 32−91.7 WP73 flags for 572 yards against · 50 drawn

Every game, judged

Robbed 2× · latest first

Bottom line2 of these 9 games went against the play. The biggest: GB @ NYJ, where the Jets lost with a 85% deserved win probability.

How to read this chart
Each card is one game.
Under each team: its success rate (share of snaps that kept the offense on schedule) and EPA per play (expected points added: how much each snap improved its scoring chances; 0 is average).
The split bar is the deserved win probability:
how often each team would win if the game were replayed from the same snaps. Away team on the left, home team on the right, 50-50 at the tick in the middle. The longer side played better.
The stamp is the ruling.
Earned: the winner also played better. Coin flip: the winner deserved it less than 60% of the time. Robbed: the loser deserved to win at least 70% of the time (when this team won one of those, it reads Lucky).
Luck pts
(full cards): real margin minus deserved margin; plus means the scoreboard was kinder than the play.
Week 9EarnedGame file →
Jets logoJets39% success · −0.27 EPA/play
1235
Chiefs logoChiefs56% success · +0.18 EPA/play

Chiefs earned it: the snaps said Chiefs by 22.4, a deserved win probability of more than 99%.

Deserved marginKC by 22.4
Real marginKC by 23
Luck pts NYJ+0.3
Luck pts KC+1.5

The swingQ2 6:29 · NYJ · −22 pts of win probability. 0-B.Allen up the middle to NYJ 26 for 5 yards (32-N.Bolton). FUMBLES (32-N.Bolton), RECOVERED by KC-17-A.Gilman at NYJ 26. 17-A.Gilman to NYJ 24 for 2 yards (7-G.Smith).

Week 8RobbedGame file →
Raiders logoRaiders50% success · +0.21 EPA/play
3833
Jets logoJets51% success · +0.25 EPA/play

Jets played like a 3.1-point better team. A team that plays like that wins 71% of the time. Jets lost.

Deserved marginNYJ by 3.1
Real marginLV by 5
Luck pts LV−0.8
Luck pts NYJ−1.2

The swingQ4 6:11 · NYJ · +19 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left to 15-A.Mitchell to LV 13 for 47 yards (31-T.Stukes).

The luck sheet

All 32 →
One-score games1-5Decided by 8 points or fewer. Over a season teams win about half of these.
Fumble bounces−1.2 ptsKept 4 of 8 own fumbles; won 8 of 17 by opponents. League offenses keep 53%.
Opponents' kicks+0.3 ptsOpponents made 12 of 13 field goals against an expected 11.9, and 25 of 27 extra points.
Own kicking+0.8 ptsMade 21 of 24 field goals against 20.7 expected by distance. Skill, not luck: not in the luck total.
Net EPA per play−0.02421st of 32 · offense minus defense, passes and runs
Our picks on them4-4Our pregame model in Jets games. All receipts

Coach on trial

Aaron Glenn · 48 graded fourth downs · went for it 11×

Bottom lineThe calls against the model in this list cost 5.5 expected points in total.

How to read this chart
Each row is one fourth down:
distance, spot, score, what the coach chose and what our model would have done (a clear call, a lean or a toss-up).
The number on the right
is what the choice cost in expected points (EP, what a possession is worth on average from that spot): −1.00 means about a point thrown away. ✓ = the coach made the model's call.
The result
is what happened next; the grade judges the decision, not the outcome.
  1. 1NYJ · 4th & 1Aaron Glenn chose Punt at own 40, Wk 3 Q1 12:54, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.41 EP
  2. 2NYJ · 4th & 1Aaron Glenn chose Punt at own 40, Wk 5 Q4 10:45, up 4. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.41 EP
  3. 3NYJ · 4th & 3Aaron Glenn chose Punt at opp 47, Wk 5 Q3 11:56, up 1. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−0.90 EP
  4. 4NYJ · 4th & 12Aaron Glenn chose Punt at opp 41, Wk 4 Q3 9:59, down 10. Model: Field goal (lean). Result: punted.−0.71 EP
  5. 5NYJ · 4th & 3Aaron Glenn chose Punt at own 42, Wk 8 Q3 1:40, up 2. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.52 EP
  6. 6NYJ · 4th & 4Aaron Glenn chose Punt at own 43, Wk 7 Q2 8:51, down 7. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.29 EP
  7. 7NYJ · 4th & 2Aaron Glenn chose Field goal at opp 17, Wk 8 Q1 2:17, down 4. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: good.−0.26 EP

Brave and right

  1. 1NYJ · 4th & 1Aaron Glenn chose Go for it at opp 39, Wk 6 Q2 7:00, down 4. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: stopped.✓ EP
  2. 2NYJ · 4th & 1Aaron Glenn chose Go for it at opp 12, Wk 8 Q2 6:23, down 1. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: touchdown.✓ EP
  3. 3NYJ · 4th & 2Aaron Glenn chose Go for it at opp 40, Wk 1 Q2 10:14, up 4. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: converted.✓ EP
  4. 4NYJ · 4th & 1Aaron Glenn chose Go for it at opp 22, Wk 1 Q2 7:29, up 4. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: converted.✓ EP
How to read this chart
Every fourth down this season.
Go EP, Punt EP and FG EP are the expected points of each option from that spot: the highest is the model's call.
Cost:
how many expected points the coach's choice gave up against the best one; ✓ = he made the best call. Late-game and lopsided situations are listed but not graded.
SituationWkChoiceModelGo EPPunt EPFG EPCostResult
4th & 5 · opp 5 · Q1 6:509Field goalField goal2.17–2.93✓good
4th & 6 · opp 30 · Q1 4:399Field goalField goal1.12-0.112.02✓good
4th & 14 · opp 31 · Q2 8:179Field goalField goal0.42-0.111.92✓good
4th & 7 · opp 36 · Q2 2:229Field goalField goal0.60-0.121.32✓good
4th & 15 · opp 35 · Q2 0:379Field goalnot graded0.12-0.111.46missed
4th & 10 · own 33 · Q3 8:079PuntPunt-1.63-0.92–✓punted
4th & 23 · own 17 · Q3 4:329PuntPunt-3.26-1.80–✓punted
4th & 3 · opp 20 · Q4 11:479Go for itnot graded2.42–2.65stopped
4th & 23 · own 7 · Q4 6:429Puntnot graded-4.01-2.52–punted
4th & 9 · opp 37 · Q4 2:089Go for itnot graded0.34-0.121.18stopped
4th & 3 · opp 3 · Q1 12:538Field goalField goal (toss-up)2.80–2.94✓good
4th & 2 · opp 17 · Q1 2:178Field goalGo for it3.01–2.75−0.26good
4th & 1 · opp 12 · Q2 6:238Go for itGo for it4.00–2.86✓touchdown
4th & 16 · opp 21 · Q2 0:148Field goalnot graded1.17–2.61good
4th & 3 · own 42 · Q3 1:408PuntGo for it-0.04-0.56–−0.52punted
4th & 9 · own 25 · Q4 10:138PuntPunt-2.07-1.32–✓punted
4th & 10 · opp 13 · Q4 4:358Field goalnot graded2.03–2.84good
4th & 4 · own 43 · Q2 8:517PuntGo for it-0.23-0.52–−0.29punted
4th & 1 · opp 29 · Q3 12:107Go for itGo for it2.75–2.11✓converted
4th & 9 · opp 22 · Q3 10:077Field goalField goal1.32–2.57✓missed
4th & 15 · opp 15 · Q4 9:017Field goalField goal0.74–2.80✓good
4th & 10 · own 27 · Q4 6:207PuntPunt-2.02-1.21–✓punted
4th & 4 · own 41 · Q4 4:107Go for itnot graded-0.36-0.59–converted
4th & 20 · opp 24 · Q1 8:216Field goalField goal0.81–2.46✓good
4th & 26 · own 4 · Q1 4:356PuntPunt-4.31-2.77–✓punted
4th & 2 · opp 30 · Q2 14:226Go for itGo for it (toss-up)2.10-0.112.02✓stopped
4th & 1 · opp 39 · Q2 7:006Go for itGo for it2.09-0.140.88✓stopped
4th & 4 · own 30 · Q2 1:296Puntnot graded-1.05-1.06–punted
4th & 13 · opp 18 · Q3 4:506Field goalField goal1.53–2.72✓good
4th & 10 · opp 22 · Q4 7:246Field goalField goal1.24–2.57✓good
4th & 21 · own 24 · Q1 1:595PuntPunt-2.72-1.38–✓punted
4th & 15 · own 29 · Q2 13:325PuntPunt-2.18-1.11–✓punted
4th & 10 · own 30 · Q2 8:405PuntPunt-1.82-1.06–✓punted
4th & 12 · opp 48 · Q2 1:305Puntnot graded-0.56-0.28–punted
4th & 3 · opp 47 · Q3 11:565PuntGo for it0.65-0.26-0.53−0.90punted
4th & 7 · opp 36 · Q4 14:425Field goalField goal0.60-0.121.32✓good
4th & 1 · own 40 · Q4 10:455PuntGo for it0.78-0.63–−1.41punted
4th & 4 · own 30 · Q4 1:485Puntnot graded-1.05-1.06–punted
4th & 6 · own 5 · Q1 7:354PuntPunt-3.13-2.68–✓punted
4th & 24 · own 18 · Q2 13:284PuntPunt-3.21-1.73–✓punted
4th & 5 · opp 18 · Q2 8:204Field goalField goal2.09–2.72✓good
4th & 4 · own 35 · Q2 1:514Puntnot graded-0.73-0.83–punted
4th & 12 · opp 41 · Q3 9:594PuntField goal-0.12-0.160.55−0.71punted
4th & 9 · opp 12 · Q3 7:054Field goalField goal2.20–2.86✓good
4th & 4 · own 38 · Q3 1:064Puntnot graded-0.54-0.71–punted
4th & 1 · own 40 · Q1 12:543PuntGo for it0.78-0.63–−1.41punted
4th & 9 · own 45 · Q1 2:263PuntPunt-0.79-0.46–✓punted
4th & 15 · own 15 · Q2 15:003PuntPunt-3.14-1.93–✓punted
4th & 23 · opp 24 · Q3 6:263Field goalField goal0.68–2.46✓good
4th & 6 · opp 23 · Q4 4:113Go for itnot graded1.59–2.52touchdown
4th & 7 · own 47 · Q1 7:542PuntPunt (toss-up)-0.47-0.40–✓punted
4th & 9 · own 47 · Q1 2:432PuntPunt-0.66-0.40–✓punted
4th & 17 · own 6 · Q1 0:142PuntPunt-3.90-2.60–✓punted
4th & 9 · opp 48 · Q3 12:342PuntPunt (toss-up)-0.35-0.28–✓punted
4th & 27 · own 43 · Q4 12:472PuntPunt-1.58-0.52–✓punted
4th & 6 · opp 14 · Q4 11:082Field goalField goal2.22–2.82✓good
4th & 3 · own 31 · Q4 4:492Puntnot graded-0.72-1.01–punted
4th & 1 · 50 · Q4 1:202Go for itnot graded1.39-0.32–stopped
4th & 18 · own 22 · OT 7:412Puntnot graded-2.76-1.49–punted
4th & 12 · own 18 · Q1 3:291PuntPunt-2.77-1.73–✓punted
4th & 2 · opp 40 · Q2 10:141Go for itGo for it1.45-0.150.71✓converted
4th & 1 · opp 22 · Q2 7:291Go for itGo for it3.25–2.57✓converted
4th & 5 · opp 14 · Q2 5:061Field goalField goal2.38–2.82✓good
4th & 8 · opp 36 · Q2 2:441Field goalField goal0.49-0.121.32✓missed
4th & 10 · opp 32 · Q3 4:381Field goalnot graded0.58-0.111.82good
4th & 1 · own 29 · Q4 14:161Puntnot graded0.10-1.11–punted
4th & 6 · opp 46 · Q4 9:461Puntnot graded0.10-0.24-0.34punted
4th & 4 · opp 34 · Q4 5:051Field goalnot graded1.21-0.111.58good

Flags against

Ledger →

Bottom lineThe biggest here: Unnecessary Roughness on NYJ in Week 2, worth +24 points of win probability to GB.

How to read this chart
Each row is one flag:
the team in red was penalized, the team in green was helped.
The number on the right
is how much that flag moved the helped team's chance of winning, in points (100 = a whole game). When the play still counted, the play is included, so treat it as an upper bound.
Touchdown erased
marks a score wiped off by the flag, with the expected points it cost.
  1. 1Unnecessary RoughnessNYJ → helped GB · Wk 2 OT 6:17 · (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 30-C.Brooks pushed ob at NYJ 37 for 15 yards (2-J.Brownlee). PENALTY on…+23.9 WP
  2. 2Roughing the PasserNYJ → helped MIA · Wk 7 Q4 4:55 · 2-M.Willis pass short left to 7-C.Douglas for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on NYJ-21-B.Stephens, Roughing the Passer, 8 yards,…+17.6 WP
  3. 3Defensive Pass InterferenceNYJ → helped GB · Wk 2 Q4 9:25 · (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep right to 0-M.Golden. PENALTY on NYJ-1-A.Thomas, Defensive Pass Interference, 38 yards,…+9.3 WP
  4. 4Illegal Touch KickNYJ → helped CHI · Wk 4 Q1 7:47 · 14-A.McNamara punts 62 yards to CHI 28, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers. PENALTY on NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers, Illegal…+8.5 WP
  5. 5Illegal Use of HandsNYJ → helped GB · Wk 2 Q3 8:44 · (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 85-T.Kraft to GB 37 for 9 yards (44-J.Sherwood; 2-J.Brownlee) [31-D.Bailey].…+7.9 WP
FoulFlagsYardsWP given
False Start125730.7
Offensive Holding1211930.4
Unnecessary Roughness22826.2
Defensive Pass Interference59024.3
Roughing the Passer21819.6
Face Mask46012.3
Illegal Use of Hands31511.5
Delay of Game73010.0

Flags drawn

  1. 1Unnecessary RoughnessLV → helped NYJ · Wk 8 Q4 0:20 · (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 5-G.Wilson to 50 for 15 yards (11-J.Chinn). PENALTY on LV-11-J.Chinn, Unnecessary…+10.9 WP
  2. 2Unnecessary RoughnessMIA → helped NYJ · Wk 7 Q4 11:25 · 0-B.Allen up the middle to MIA 1 for 10 yards (42-J.Woodard; 23-Z.Anderson). PENALTY on MIA-90-M.Herring, Unnecessary Roughness,…+6.6 WP
  3. 3Unsportsmanlike ConductGB → helped NYJ · Wk 2 Q1 10:04 · (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete deep left to 15-A.Mitchell (7-J.Bullard). PENALTY on GB-7-J.Bullard, Unsportsmanlike…+5.4 WP
  4. 4Defensive Pass InterferenceGB → helped NYJ · Wk 2 Q2 8:13 · 7-G.Smith pass incomplete deep right to 15-A.Mitchell (25-K.Nixon). PENALTY on GB-25-K.Nixon, Defensive Pass Interference, 34…+5.4 WP
  5. 5Unnecessary RoughnessGB → helped NYJ · Wk 2 Q3 12:34 · 14-A.McNamara punts 42 yards to GB 6, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers. PENALTY on GB-51-D.Dennis-Sutton,…+5.2 WP

Garbage Time Tax

16.7% of the offense's yards came with the game decided · 23rd most of 32

Bottom lineGeno Smith: 403 of 2,078 yards (19%) came with the game decided.

How to read this chart
One bar per player,
as long as his season yards (passing, rushing or receiving).
Blue = yards with the game still alive.
Striped amber = garbage time: yards gained when the offense's chance of winning was already under 10% or over 90%, so the game was basically decided.
The percentage
is the garbage-time share of his yards (amber from 30% up).
Geno SmithNYJ · passing · 2,078 yds19%
Braelon AllenNYJ · rushing · 598 yds4%
Garrett WilsonNYJ · receiving · 527 yds11%
Omar Cooper Jr.NYJ · receiving · 306 yds17%
Adonai MitchellNYJ · receiving · 265 yds0%

Our picks on the Jets

Receipts →
  1. 1Week 9We gave the Jets 30% at chiefs. 12-35 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
  2. 2Week 8We gave the Jets 59% at home against raiders. 38-33 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Wrong
  3. 3Week 7We gave the Jets 75% at home against dolphins. 28-25 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Wrong
  4. 4Week 6We gave the Jets 41% at patriots. 19-26 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
  5. 5Week 5We gave the Jets 58% at home against browns. 12-17 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
  6. 6Week 4We gave the Jets 33% at bears. 12-23 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
  7. 7Week 3We gave the Jets 60% at lions. 24-31 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Wrong
  8. 8Week 2We gave the Jets 74% at home against packers. 20-17 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Wrong
Cite thisPigskin Nightly, "New York Jets verdict, 2026", https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/jets/verdict (2026)CC BY 4.0Data licenseCSVJSONEmbedHow it works

Every number on this page is computed from the 2026 nflverse play-by-play by our own models. Nothing is hand-picked.