Jets 12, Bears 23: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 4 · Sun, Oct 4 · Soldier FieldFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
NYJ	0	3	3	6	12
CHI	7	6	7	3	23

Home · 7-2ChicagoBears23

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 9:41 PM ET

The Chicago Bears beat the New York Jets 23-12 on Sun, Oct 4 at Soldier Field in Chicago, IL (Week 4, 2026 season). Records after the game: Jets 2-7, Bears 7-2. T.Bagent (CHI) led all players with +7.8 EPA on 36 dropbacks.

Who won Jets vs Bears?

The Chicago Bears won 23-12. By quarter: NYJ 0-3-3-6, CHI 7-6-7-3.

Who was the best player in Jets vs Bears?

By expected points added: T.Bagent (CHI, +7.8 EPA on 36 dropbacks), R.Odunze (CHI, +6.7 EPA on 7 targets) and I.Williams (NYJ, +5.4 EPA on 3 targets).

What was the turning point of Jets vs Bears?

The biggest swing in win probability (9 points toward the Bears) came in Q1 at 0:23: K.Monangai right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-S.Daly, Holder-T.Taylor.

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Jets 12, Bears 23: Week 4 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-10-04-nyj-at-chi (updated 2026-11-11).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 4 issue →

Week 4EarnedGame file →

Jets41% success · −0.14 EPA/play

1223

Bears55% success · +0.09 EPA/play

NYJ 3% deserveddeserved 97% CHI

Bears earned it: the snaps said Bears by 10.1, a deserved win probability of 97%.

Deserved marginCHI by 10.1

Real marginCHI by 11

Luck pts NYJ+1.7

Luck pts CHI−1.4

The swingQ2 11:52 · CHI · −13 pts of win probability. 17-T.Bagent pass deep middle intended for 84-C.Loveland INTERCEPTED by 29-M.Fitzpatrick at NYJ 39. 29-M.Fitzpatrick ran ob at CHI 34 for 27 yards (87-S.Roush).

Flags that moved this game

1Illegal Touch KickNYJ → helped CHI · Wk 4 Q1 7:47 · 14-A.McNamara punts 62 yards to CHI 28, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers. PENALTY on NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers, Illegal…+8.5 WP
2Face MaskNYJ → helped CHI · Wk 4 Q1 10:39 · (Shotgun) 25-K.Monangai right tackle to NYJ 30 for 1 yard (95-D.Jackson). PENALTY on NYJ-95-D.Jackson, Face Mask, 15 yards,…+4.2 WP

Fourth downs our model disagreed with

1NYJ · 4th & 12Aaron Glenn chose Punt at opp 41, Wk 4 Q3 9:59, down 10. Model: Field goal (lean). Result: punted.−0.71 EP
2CHI · 4th & 2Ben Johnson chose Field goal at opp 12, Wk 4 Q2 2:32, up 4. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: good.−0.53 EP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA138 plays, one strand0 lead changes · 9 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewCarl Cheffers16 accepted flags in this game · 13.3 a game this season (one of the quietest crews)Market vs SnapsLine: CHI by 3.5 · Snaps: CHI by 10.1Bears covered; the snaps agree

12@23

Week 4Changes the winner

If the Jets had stopped that fourth-and-1

Jets after the play32%what really happened

Q1 2:56 4-D.Swift right end to NYJ 8 for 13 yards (29-M.Fitzpatrick).

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

CHI ▲NYJ ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+9%Q1 0:23 · for CHIK.Monangai right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-S.Daly, Holder-T.Taylor.
+9%Q2 11:52 · for NYJT.Bagent pass deep middle intended for C.Loveland INTERCEPTED by M.Fitzpatrick at NYJ 39. M.Fitzpatrick ran ob at CHI 34 for 27 yards (S.Roush).
+7%Q3 8:52 · for NYJ(Shotgun) D.Swift left guard to CHI 28 for no gain (J.Sherwood). FUMBLES (J.Sherwood), RECOVERED by NYJ-B.Stephens at CHI 28. B.Stephens ran ob at CHI 28 for no gain.
+6%Q1 1:08 · for NYJ(Shotgun) K.Monangai right guard to NYJ 1 for no gain (J.Ossai; J.Sherwood).
+6%Q1 2:56 · for CHID.Swift right end to NYJ 8 for 13 yards (M.Fitzpatrick).

Every drive, on the field

CHI attacks →← NYJ attacks

Q1 15:00DOWNS14p · 93y · 5:48
Q1 9:12PUNT3p · 4y · 1:48
Q1 7:24TD12p · 57y · 7:01
Q1 0:23PUNT5p · -2y · 2:06
Q2 13:17INT3p · 12y · 1:35
Q2 11:42FG6p · 16y · 3:27
Q2 8:15FG11p · 59y · 5:46
Q2 2:29PUNT3p · 6y · 0:45
Q2 1:44FG11p · 68y · 1:44
Q3 15:00PUNT7p · 24y · 5:09
Q3 9:51FUM3p · 24y · 1:05
Q3 8:46FG5p · 16y · 1:46
Q3 7:00TD9p · 72y · 4:34
Q3 2:26PUNT3p · 6y · 1:29
Q3 0:57FG11p · 77y · 5:56
Q4 10:01TD2p · 72y · 0:45
Q4 9:16END18p · 76y · 9:16

Jets8 drives3scoring drives (1 TD)38%drives ending in pointsOWN 35avg starting field position3three-and-outs0turnovers incl. downs

Bears8 drives5scoring drives (2 TD)63%drives ending in pointsOWN 23avg starting field position0three-and-outs3turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
0:23TouchdownK.Monangai right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-S.Daly, Holder-T.Taylor.0–7
Q2
8:15Field goalJ.Sanders 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-T.Hennessy, Holder-A.McNamara.3–7
Q2
2:29Field goal C.Santos 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-S.Daly, Holder-T.Taylor.3–10
Q2
0:00Field goalC.Santos 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-S.Daly, Holder-T.Taylor.3–13
Q3
7:00Field goal J.Sanders 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-T.Hennessy, Holder-A.McNamara.6–13
Q3
2:26TouchdownK.Monangai right guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-S.Daly, Holder-T.Taylor.6–20
Q4
10:01Field goal C.Santos 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-S.Daly, Holder-T.Taylor.6–23
Q4
9:16Touchdown(Shotgun) G.Smith pass deep middle to I.Williams for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN [J.van den Berg]. J.Sanders extra point is No Good, Wide Right, Center-T.Hennessy, Holder-A.McNamara.12–23

Team stats

NYJvsCHI

157Total yards492

98Passing yards260

59Rushing yards232

4.9Yards per play5.5

7First downs34

0-7 · 0%Third down7-15 · 47%

0-0Fourth down2-3

0-2Red zone TDs2-7

8/15Comp / att25/34

4.2Yards per carry4.3

0Turnovers2

3 (−21 yds)Sacks allowed1 (−8 yds)

12 for 76Penalties4 for 29

17:15Possession42:45

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play-0.137+0.058

Dropback EPA-0.270+0.216

Rush EPA+0.034-0.055

Success rate41%55%

Explosive plays211

Plays3286

Who moved the needle

T.BagentDropbacks: 36+7.8

R.OdunzeTargets: 7+6.7

I.WilliamsTargets: 3+5.4

K.MonangaiCarries: 30+3.4

L.BurdenTargets: 6+3.3

R.JohnsonCarries: 4+0.5

Cost their side the most

D.SwiftCarries: 15-7.4

G.SmithDropbacks: 18-4.9

C.LovelandTargets: 9-4.1

Box score

New York Jets

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Geno SmithQB	8/15	119	7.9	1	0	3-21	30.1	101.8

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Braelon AllenRB	14	59	4.2	0	10

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Isaiah WilliamsWR	2	3	73	36.5	1	58
Garrett WilsonWR	3	4	27	9.0	0	14
Jelani WoodsTE	1	1	11	11.0	0	11
Braelon AllenRB	2	2	8	4.0	0	5
Sterling ShepardWR	0	1	0	0.0	0	0
Kenyon SadiqTE	0	4	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Minkah FitzpatrickS	16	8	0	0	1	0
Dane BeltonS	14	6	0	0	1	0
Jamien SherwoodLB	13	5	0	0	0	0
Demario DavisLB	10	5	1	1	0	1
Joseph OssaiDE	7	5	0	0	0	0
Harrison PhillipsDT	7	2	0	0	0	1
David BaileyLB	6	2	0	0	1	0
Azareye'h ThomasCB	5	4	0	0	1	0
Will McDonald IVDE	5	2	0	0	0	0
Brandon StephensCB	4	3	0	0	1	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Jason SandersPK	2/2	100.0	36	0/1	6

Chicago Bears

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Tyson BagentQB	25/34	268	7.9	0	1	1-8	65.3	83.9

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Kyle MonangaiRB	30	146	4.9	2	26
D'Andre SwiftRB	15	58	3.9	0	13
Roschon JohnsonRB	4	16	4.0	0	11
Luther Burden IIIWR	1	11	11.0	0	11
Tyson BagentQB	4	1	0.3	0	4

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	LONG
Rome OdunzeWR	6	7	94	15.7	37
Luther Burden IIIWR	4	6	63	15.8	22
Colston LovelandTE	6	9	57	9.5	18
D'Andre SwiftRB	2	2	16	8.0	12
Cole KmetTE	2	2	13	6.5	7
Sam RoushTE	1	1	8	8.0	8
Roschon JohnsonRB	1	1	7	7.0	7
Kalif RaymondWR	2	2	6	3.0	5
Kyle MonangaiRB	1	1	4	4.0	4

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Dillon ThienemanS	7	0	0	0	0	0
Tyrique Stevenson Sr.CB	4	3	0	1	0	0
Devin BushLB	4	2	1	1	0	1
T.J. EdwardsLB	4	1	0	0	0	1
Xavier Woods	3	1	0	0	0	0
Grady JarrettDE	3	0	0	0	0	0
D'Marco JacksonLB	3	0	0	0	0	0
Dayo OdeyingboDE	2	1	1	1	1	0
Austin BookerDE	2	1	1	1	0	2
Malik Muhammad IICB	2	1	0	0	1	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Cairo SantosPK	3/3	100.0	30	2/2	11

Before kickoff · Regular season through week 3 · rank out of 32

Where it was expected to be decided

1Bears third-down defense vs Jets third-down offense
The Bears' third-down defense ranks 2nd in third-down conversion rate (29.0% allowed, 31 third downs faced) and faces a Jets third-down offense ranked 17th (40.5%, 42 third downs).
17thNYJ offense15 spots apart2ndCHI defense
2Bears pass rush vs Jets pass protection
The Bears' pass rush ranks 10th in sack rate (7.1% of dropbacks, 98 dropbacks faced) and faces a Jets pass protection ranked 22nd (7.5% sacked, 120 dropbacks).
22ndNYJ offense12 spots apart10thCHI defense
3Bears ball security vs Jets takeaway defense
The Bears' ball security ranks 16th in turnovers per game (1.0 giveaways a game, 3 games) against a Jets takeaway defense ranked 30th (0.3 takeaways a game, 3 games).
16thCHI offense14 spots apart30thNYJ defenseSmall sample, read with care Why sample size matters

When the Jets have the ballNo big edge

NYJ dropback offenseEPA per dropbackCHI pass defense

10th+0.20120 dropbacks

-0.06 allowed98 dropbacks faced8th

NYJ run gameEPA per rushCHI run defense

26th-0.2174 rushes

-0.01 allowed62 rushes faced25th

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Bears have the ballNo big edge

CHI dropback offenseEPA per dropbackNYJ pass defense

9th+0.23114 dropbacks

+0.03 allowed107 dropbacks faced16th

CHI run gameEPA per rushNYJ run defense

7th+0.0092 rushes

-0.15 allowed54 rushes faced11th

Third downEdge CHI · +15 ranks

NYJ third-down offensethird-down conversion rateCHI third-down defense

17th40.5%42 third downs

CHI +15

29.0% allowed31 third downs faced2nd

CHI third-down offensethird-down conversion rateNYJ third-down defense

6th47.6%42 third downs

32.3% allowed31 third downs faced5th

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneEdge CHI · +8 ranks

NYJ red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateCHI red-zone defense

17th56%9 trips

71% allowed7 trips faced22nd

CHI red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateNYJ red-zone defense

20th55%11 trips

CHI +8

78% allowed9 trips faced28th

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsEdge NYJ · +9 ranks

NYJ big-play offenseexplosive-play rateCHI defense against big plays

14th9.3%194 plays

NYJ +9

10.6% allowed160 plays faced23rd

CHI big-play offenseexplosive-play rateNYJ defense against big plays

8th10.2%206 plays

6.2% allowed161 plays faced4th

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksEdge CHI · +12 ranks

NYJ pass protectionsack rateCHI pass rush

22nd7.5% sacked120 dropbacks

CHI +12

7.1% of dropbacks98 dropbacks faced10th

CHI pass protectionsack rateNYJ pass rush

12th5.3% sacked114 dropbacks

7.5% of dropbacks107 dropbacks faced8th

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversEdge CHI · +14 ranks

NYJ ball securityturnovers per gameCHI takeaway defense

1st0.3 giveaways a game3 games

1.7 takeaways a game3 games6th

CHI ball securityturnovers per gameNYJ takeaway defense

16th1.0 giveaways a game3 games

CHI +14

0.3 takeaways a game3 games30th

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

Sample: NYJ 3 games, 194 offensive and 161 defensive plays · CHI 3 games, 206 offensive and 160 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

Breece HallRB→ Braelon Allen

Omar Cooper Jr.WR→ Isaiah Williams

Adonai MitchellWR→ Sterling Shepard

Mason TaylorTE→ Kenyon Sadiq

Dylan ParhamLG→ Jordan Meredith

Darrell Jackson Jr.LDT→ Harrison Phillips

Kingsley EnagbareRDE→ Will McDonald IV

Trevin WallaceSLB→ Joseph Ossai

Caleb WilliamsQB→ Tyson Bagent

D'Andre SwiftRB→ Kyle Monangai

Jeffery SimmonsRDT→ Kentavius Street