AFC North · 2026 season

ClevelandBrowns

5-4record3rdin North#8AFC seed-35point diffL2streak

TexansSun, Nov 15 · 1 PM ETHOU -4.5 · O/U 39.5

What changed · Last 4 games (weeks 6-9) vs 5 games before (weeks 1-5)

Biggest improvementOffensesuccess rate28th→13th

Over the last 4 games the offense has posted a 43.8% success rate (258 plays), 13th among 32 teams over their own last 4. In the 5 games before: a 39.1% success rate (289 plays), 28th.

Season EPA ranks ↓Emerging problemPass defenseEPA per dropback allowed5th→15th

Over the last 4 games the pass defense has allowed -0.00 EPA per dropback (141 dropbacks), 15th among 32 teams over their own last 4. In the 5 games before: -0.03 EPA per dropback (195 dropbacks), 5th.

Season EPA ranks ↓Usage shiftQuinshon Judkins, RBoffensive snap share60%→32%

Quinshon Judkins has played 32% of offensive snaps over the last 4 games, down from 60% in the 5 games before. On the field in 3 of 4 and 5 of 5; a game without a snap counts as zero.

Snap counts, week by week ↓

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 9:52 AM ET

The Cleveland Browns are 5-4 in the 2026 season, 3rd in the AFC North and the No. 8 seed in the AFC, with a point differential of -35. On offense they rank 26th in the league in EPA per play (-0.084); on defense they rank 12th (-0.020 allowed). The Pigskin Nightly model gives them a 28% chance to make the playoffs and 0.1% to win the Super Bowl. The Cleveland Browns play next at home against the Houston Texans on Sun, Nov 15, 1 PM ET (Week 10), on Fox.

What is the Cleveland Browns record?

5-4, 3rd in the AFC North. Home 3-0, road 2-4, division 2-1, conference 3-3, current streak L2. Points: 161 scored, 196 allowed.

Who do the Cleveland Browns play next?

The Cleveland Browns play next at home against the Houston Texans on Sun, Nov 15, 1 PM ET (Week 10), on Fox.

What are the Cleveland Browns' playoff chances?

28% to make the playoffs, 3% to win the AFC North, 0% to earn the No. 1 seed and the bye, 0.4% to win the AFC and 0.1% to win the Super Bowl, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season (projected record 8.5-8.5).

Who is the Cleveland Browns starting quarterback?

Deshaun Watson is first on the Browns depth chart at quarterback (currently out on the injury report), with Shedeur Sanders behind.

Who is injured for the Cleveland Browns?

Out, doubtful or on injured reserve: Deshaun Watson (QB, out, concussion) and Maliek Collins (DT, out, elbow).

How good is the Cleveland Browns offense and defense?

Offense: 26th in EPA per play (-0.084), 22nd on dropbacks, 29th on runs, success rate 41.3%. Defense: 12th in EPA allowed (-0.020), 9th against the pass, 30th against the run.

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Cleveland Browns 2026: record, EPA, depth chart and injuries”, https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/browns (updated 2026-11-10).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

From the Browns Desk

Open the desk →

The VerdictBrowns' 33% success rate earned a 23-22 overtime loss to the SaintsThe snaps gave Cleveland a 30% chance against New Orleans, and a failed two-point try in overtime decided it.Nov 10, 2026 · 2 min read The TapeBrowns lose in overtime as the run game stalls and the defense sacks T.Shough five timesNov 8, 2026 · 3 min read Scouting ReportBrowns offense ranks 25th and faces a Saints defense that ranks 27thNov 7, 2026 · 2 min read

The Wire

The Verdict · 2026

The Browns, judged from every snap

About rightthe record matches the snaps

Real record5-4

Deserved4.2wins

Looking back, not ahead. Deserved wins grade how well a team has played, from every snap of the games already played. They are not a forecast of the games to come. How well they hold up

+0.8 luck wins · 6th luckiest in the NFL · net EPA per snap 22nd

Bars: deserved win probability, from the snaps50% line

Bottom lineEvery result so far matched the play or was a coin flip.

How to read this chart

The track:: solid dot = real wins, ring = deserved wins (the record the snaps earned), on a scale from 0 to 9 games. The colored gap between them is the luck.
The strip:: one tile per game, oldest first, with the opponent and the score. The bar is how often the Browns would win a replay of the same snaps; above the middle line they deserved to win.
The label:: Earned or Fair loss = the result matched the play; Coin flip = it could have gone either way; Lucky / Robbed = the result went against the play.

One-score games5-2decided by 8 or fewer

Chicken Index63%8th most timid of 28

Flags, net−40win prob. points · 27th

Bounce & kick luck−10.6points · −1.2 a game

Latest ruling · Week 9

Saints earned it: the snaps said Saints by 3.0, a deserved win probability of 71%.

From the Browns DeskBrowns' 33% success rate earned a 23-22 overtime loss to the SaintsThe snaps gave Cleveland a 30% chance against New Orleans, and a failed two-point try in overtime decided it.

From the Lab

The lab file

All Lab tools →

Scheme DNAMost shotgun rate, most outside runs in the leagueClosest twin: Broncos (63%)Clock IQ28th of 32 at managing the clockTodd Monken · 9 timeouts burned · 0 halves left on the table Deserved Standings

Real85-4

Deserved–4.2-4.8

Out of the picture in both worldsSeeds in the AFC, real and as if every game went to the team that deserved it Market vs Snaps+2.0The market underrates themPoints a game the snaps beat the line · 6-3 against the spread Sliding Doors3losses that one coin-flip play could have flipped85 points of win probability lost to those plays, 231 saved in wins

The season, week by week

Offense EPA/playDefense EPA prevented

Wk 11Bye

Bars above the line are good: offense adding expected points, defense taking them away. The middle line is league average zero.Rest days and miles traveled, all 32 →

The road ahead

Playoff odds, all 32 →

Playoff oddsBrowns5-4 · proj 8.5-8.5 · 9th in AFC28%▼ 6 pts

Win it all 0.1% · likeliest seed No. 7 (15%)Full odds →

Next 5 · schedule leftNo. 21 hardest of 32 · avg opp -0.3 →

Regular season · rank among 32 teams

Where the Browns stand

Offense

EPA per play-0.08426th

Dropback EPA-0.00722nd

Rush EPA-0.22329th

Success rate41.3%22nd

Defense

EPA allowed-0.02012th

Pass EPA allowed-0.0219th

Rush EPA allowed-0.01930th

Success allowed42.3%12th

Pass rate over expected: -0.9% (12th most pass-heavy given down, distance and score). 547 offensive plays logged.

Fantasy points allowed per game: QB 14.7 (27th most) · RB 22.4 (14th most) · WR 30.5 (19th most) · TE 14.9 (10th most). Defense vs position

Who produces

EPA from the nflverse play-by-play model

Quarterback · 307 dropbacksD.Watson-0.003EPA / dropback-0.1CPOE7.2aDOT46%success

Quarterback · 46 dropbacksS.Sanders-0.039EPA / dropback-4.5CPOE5.7aDOT33%success

Rushing	Car	Yds	TD	EPA/car	Success
Q.Judkins RB	116	385	3	-0.25	30%
D.Watson QB	20	45	1	-0.40	50%
D.Sampson RB	15	73	0	-0.08	47%
J.McLaughlin RB	11	72	1	+0.24	55%

Targets	Tgt	Target share	Air share	aDOT	Yds	TD	EPA/tgt
D.Boston WR	62	22%	45%	14.5	507	3	+0.16
K.Concepcion WR	55	20%	22%	7.7	437	1	+0.29
H.Fannin TE	53	19%	16%	5.8	453	4	+0.34
J.Jeudy WR	28	10%	14%	9.9	208	0	+0.01
Q.Judkins RB	24	9%	-2%	-1.7	136	0	+0.13
D.Sampson RB	17	6%	-1%	-0.8	121	0	+0.18
R.Sanders RB	12	4%	-1%	-1.8	74	0	-0.07
I.Bond WR	9	3%	6%	13.3	86	0	+0.39

Depth chart, on the field

QuestionableOut / IRFull roster →

Offense3WR 1TE

55LTFano Jones

44TEFannin Jr.Whiteheart

12WRBoston Wallace

1WRConcepcion Corley

3WRJeudy Bond

DefenseBase 4-3 D

33FSHickman Thomas

21LCBWard Pride Jr.

57LDEMcGuire Barnett

94LDTGraham Huntington

49MLBSchwesinger Ulofoshio

26NBHarden Igbinoghene

7RCBCampbell Blackmon

8RDEVerse Williams

96RDTCollins Hall Jr.

5SLBWilliams Jefferson

9SSDelpit McNeil-Warren

42WLBMascarenas-Arnold Reid

HolderCorey Bojorquez Kick ReturnerDylan Sampson Long SnapperRex Sunahara PunterCorey Bojorquez Place KickerAndre Szmyt Punt ReturnerKC Concepcion

Snap counts

Share of team snaps, every weekThis week's starters →

Offense	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
Austin BarberT	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Spencer FanoT	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Zion JohnsonG	98	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Tytus HowardT	100	97	100	100	51	100	64	100	100
Elgton JenkinsC	100	100	100		100	100	100	100	100
Shedeur SandersQB			1					6	100
Denzel BostonWR	92	93	89	95	91	92	87	83	93
KC ConcepcionWR	69	66	86	92	16	81	79	83	93
Harold FanninTE	82	86	86	89	93	89	83	86	84
Jerry JeudyWR	63	59	51	38	81	62	61	60	68
Dylan SampsonRB							46	56	64
Quinshon JudkinsRB	65	67	51	66	53		53	39	34
Blake WhiteheartTE	39	47	39	34	19	27	31	36	26
Michael BurtonFB	12	17	21	14	1	16	16	11	15

Defense	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
Carson SchwesingerLB	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Grant DelpitS	100	100	100	97	100	11	92	100	100
Tyson CampbellCB	100	75		99	100	98	95	76	100
Ronnie HickmanS	100	95	100	100	100	100	100	95	99
Denzel WardCB	100	100	99	100	100	100	95	98	97
Quincy WilliamsLB	96	91	96	99	91	100	100	98	91
Mason GrahamDT	60	63	73	10			65	75	69
Isaiah McGuireDE	65	62	56	60	66	67	62	63	68
Myles HardenCB	44	86	78	53	56	58	63	46	64
Jared VerseDE	65	65	68	57	74	67	63	69	57
Michael HallDT	51	40	49	42				47	51
Sam KamaraDT					57	58	37		48
Emmanuel McNeil-WarrenS	25	15	26	50	41	95	30	53	44
Sam WilliamsDE	40	40	29	39	30	37	41	37	37

With / Without

All Browns splits →

CornerbackTyson Campbell93% of snapsSmall sample

-0.12Observed difference
EPA allowed, better without

EPA allowed-0.004-0.127

Success allowed43.4%35.1%

Points allowed22.318.0

With 8 games · 493 playsWithout 1 game · 74 plays (Wk 3)

Opponents avg rating

With

JAX

PIT

NYJ

BAL

TEN

PIT

NO+0.4

Without

CAR-0.7

Opponents in the games with him were 1.1 pts stronger on average

Other starters out

With games:Deshaun Watson QB · 1/8, Maliek Collins DT · 1/8, Quinshon Judkins RB · 1/8

Team trend EPA/play allowed, up to 4 games each side of his first absence

Before (Wks 1-2)+0.077From Wk 3 on (Wks 3-6)-0.082

Running backQuinshon Judkins54% of snapsSmall sample

+0.04Observed difference
EPA/play, better with

EPA / play-0.080-0.117

Success41.1%43.3%

Points / game18.513.0

With 8 games · 487 playsWithout 1 game · 60 plays (Wk 6)

Opponents avg rating

With

JAX

CAR

PIT

NYJ

TEN

PIT

NO+0.6

Without

BAL-2.7

Opponents in the games with him were 3.4 pts stronger on average

Other starters out

With games:Deshaun Watson QB · 1/8, Maliek Collins DT · 1/8, Tyson Campbell CB · 1/8

Team trend EPA/play, up to 4 games each side of his first absence

Before (Wks 2-5)-0.059From Wk 6 on (Wks 6-9)-0.087

QuarterbackDeshaun Watson99% of snapsOutSmall sample

+0.03Observed difference
EPA/play, better with

EPA / play-0.079-0.114

Success42.5%33.3%

Points / game17.422.0

With 8 games · 478 playsWithout 1 game · 69 plays (Wk 9)

Opponents avg rating

With

JAX

CAR

PIT

NYJ

BAL

TEN

PIT+0.7

Without

NO-3.5

Opponents in the games with him were 4.2 pts stronger on average

Other starters out

Without games:Maliek Collins DT · 1/1

With games:Quinshon Judkins RB · 1/8, Tyson Campbell CB · 1/8

Team trend EPA/play, up to 4 games each side of his first absence

Before (Wks 5-8)-0.134From Wk 9 on (Wk 9)-0.114

Interior lineMaliek Collins62% of snapsOutSmall sample

-0.02Observed difference
EPA allowed, better without

EPA allowed-0.017-0.040

Success allowed42.1%43.7%

Points allowed21.623.0

With 8 games · 496 playsWithout 1 game · 71 plays (Wk 9)

Opponents avg rating

With

JAX

CAR

PIT

NYJ

BAL

TEN

PIT+0.7

Without

NO-3.5

Opponents in the games with him were 4.2 pts stronger on average

Other starters out

Without games:Deshaun Watson QB · 1/1

With games:Quinshon Judkins RB · 1/8, Tyson Campbell CB · 1/8

Team trend EPA/play allowed, up to 4 games each side of his first absence

Before (Wks 5-8)-0.053From Wk 9 on (Wk 9)-0.040

No "without" sample yet

Never missed a game

Key Browns starters who have taken the field in every game so far. A split appears here once one of them sits out a full game.

Austin BarberTackle · 9/9 games100%
Spencer FanoTackle · 9/9 games100%
Carson SchwesingerEdge rusher · 9/9 games100%
Denzel WardCornerback · 9/9 games99%
Ronnie HickmanSafety · 9/9 games99%
Quincy WilliamsLinebacker · 9/9 games96%
Denzel BostonWide receiver · 9/9 games91%
Harold Fannin Jr.Tight end · 9/9 games86%

Bar = average share of his unit's snaps · all 11 starters →

Observed differences between groups of games, not the player's causal effect. Why sample size matters · What EPA is

Injury report

Whole league

Out, doubtful or on IR

Deshaun WatsonQB · #4 · ConcussionOut
Maliek CollinsDT · #96 · ElbowOut

AFC North

Full standings

BengalsDiv 1-1 · Home 2-1 · Road 4-16-2+65 2

SteelersDiv 2-1 · Home 4-0 · Road 2-26-2+36 3

BrownsDiv 2-1 · Home 3-0 · Road 2-45-4-35 4

RavensDiv 0-2 · Home 1-3 · Road 3-24-5-47