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Broncos DeskThe Lab Report

Broncos are 7-2, but the snaps say 4.1 wins and the 11th seed in the conference

Denver's real record runs 2.9 wins ahead of its deserved one, and a thin two-minute drill gives little cushion against Las Vegas.

Playoff raceThe Lab Report4.1Deserved wins · The Lab
By Broncos Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 10, 1:49 AM ET2 min read

The most surprising number in the Broncos' Lab file is 11. Denver sits second in the conference on the real table at 7-2, and 11th on the deserved table built from the snaps. The gap is 2.9 wins, and every other finding below traces back to it.

2.9 wins: the record is ahead of the film

The Deserved Standings tool credits Denver with 4.1 deserved wins and 4.9 deserved losses through Week 9. The real record is 7-2. That makes the Broncos in the playoff field on the real table and out of it on the snaps.

The luck column is the 2.9 wins between those two records. For the Raiders game, the useful reading is that Denver has banked results the underlying play has not yet matched.

Deserved Standings

-0.9: the margin per game the snaps deserved

The Market vs Snaps tool compares three margins over nine games. The Broncos' real margin is 1.3 points per game. The market expected 0.9. The snaps deserved negative 0.9.

The snaps sit 1.8 points per game below the market, which ranks Denver 24th of 32 among teams the market has underrated. The market has not undersold this team. Denver is 7-2-0 against the closing spread, so the number has been beaten, but the lines here are context and not a pick.

The real margin is 2.2 points per game better than the snaps margin. That difference is the same story as the standings, told in points.

Market vs Snaps

3 points: the two-minute drill against 6.2 expected

Sean Payton's Clock IQ score is 36 out of 99, which ranks 26th of 32. The two-minute drill explains part of it. Denver ran 7 drives in those situations and scored 3 points, against 6.2 expected.

Timeouts add to it. The Broncos burn 1.11 per game, against a league average of 0.75. In a close game, that gap in stoppage is a cost the team pays at the end of a half.

A game against Las Vegas that comes down to the final two minutes would test the weakest piece of this profile.

Clock IQ

2.8 games: the win probability one play saved

The Sliding Doors tool tallies the single plays that swung Denver's games. In wins, one decisive play per game saved 2.8 games' worth of win probability. In losses, one decisive play cost 0.45 games' worth.

Two of the Broncos' losses could have been flipped by one play. The wins leaned on single plays far more than the losses did, and that fits a team whose record sits above its deserved mark.

Sliding Doors

What to watch next

Denver hosts the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 11 on Sunday, Nov 22, at 4:25 PM ET on CBS. The Broncos arrive 7-2 on the real table, with 4.1 deserved wins, a two-minute drill that produced 3 points against 6.2 expected, and 1.11 timeouts burned per game.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.