Patriots 6, Jaguars 35: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 3 · Sun, Sep 27 · EverBank StadiumFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
NE	0	3	0	3	6
JAX	0	14	14	7	35

Home · 6-2JacksonvilleJaguars35

At a glanceUpdated Nov 11, 2026, 1:55 AM ET

The Jacksonville Jaguars beat the New England Patriots 35-6 on Sun, Sep 27 at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, FL (Week 3, 2026 season). Records after the game: Patriots 5-4, Jaguars 6-2. J.Meyers (JAX) led all players with +8.3 EPA on 8 targets.

Who won Patriots vs Jaguars?

The Jacksonville Jaguars won 35-6. By quarter: NE 0-3-0-3, JAX 0-14-14-7.

Who was the best player in Patriots vs Jaguars?

By expected points added: J.Meyers (JAX, +8.3 EPA on 8 targets), T.Lawrence (JAX, +7.1 EPA on 31 dropbacks) and M.Hollins (NE, +5.0 EPA on 9 targets).

What was the turning point of Patriots vs Jaguars?

The biggest swing in win probability (11 points toward the Jaguars) came in Q2 at 1:02: D.Maye pass short right intended for E.Chism INTERCEPTED by T.Hunter [F.Oluokun] at JAX -9. Touchback.

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Patriots 6, Jaguars 35: Week 3 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-09-27-ne-at-jax (updated 2026-11-11).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 3 issue →

Week 3EarnedGame file →

Patriots37% success · −0.26 EPA/play

635

Jaguars51% success · +0.23 EPA/play

NE 0% deserveddeserved 100% JAX

Jaguars earned it: the snaps said Jaguars by 23.6, a deserved win probability of more than 99%.

Deserved marginJAX by 23.6

Real marginJAX by 29

Luck pts NE+0.4

Luck pts JAX+2.5

The swingQ1 3:58 · NE · −17 pts of win probability. 10-D.Maye sacked at JAX 42 for -7 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by JAX-52-D.Hamilton at JAX 38.

Flags that moved this game

1Unnecessary RoughnessJAX → helped NE · Wk 3 Q3 13:23 · 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to 50 for 3 yards (47-D.Gardeck). PENALTY on JAX-6-A.Johnson, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards,…+5.0 WP
2Defensive HoldingJAX → helped NE · Wk 3 Q2 2:47 · (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short right to 86-E.Chism (91-A.Armstead, 4-J.Jones) [91-A.Armstead]. PENALTY on…+4.0 WP

Fourth downs our model disagreed with

1JAX · 4th & 1Liam Coen chose Punt at own 21, Wk 3 Q1 13:14, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.15 EP
2JAX · 4th & 2Liam Coen chose Punt at own 32, Wk 3 Q1 7:52, tied. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.67 EP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA139 plays, one strand0 lead changes · 8 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewAlex Kemp16 accepted flags in this game · 13.3 a game this season (one of the quietest crews)Market vs SnapsLine: JAX by 3 · Snaps: JAX by 23.6Jaguars covered; the snaps agree

6@35

Week 3Changes the winner

If the Patriots had fallen on their own fumble

Patriots after the play43%what really happened

Q1 3:58 10-D.Maye sacked at JAX 42 for -7 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by JAX-52-D.Hamilton at JAX 38.

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

JAX ▲NE ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+11%Q2 1:02 · for JAXD.Maye pass short right intended for E.Chism INTERCEPTED by T.Hunter [F.Oluokun] at JAX -9. Touchback.
+11%Q1 3:58 · for JAXD.Maye sacked at JAX 42 for -7 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by JAX-D.Hamilton at JAX 38.
+11%Q2 11:13 · for NE(Shotgun) T.Lawrence pass short middle intended for B.Strange INTERCEPTED by M.Jones (J.Reed) at JAX 33. M.Jones to JAX 21 for 12 yards (E.Cleveland; J.Meyers).
+7%Q2 13:25 · for JAX(Shotgun) T.Lawrence pass short middle to J.Cameron for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Matiscik, Holder-L.Cooke.
+6%Q3 13:23 · for NER.Stevenson up the middle to 50 for 3 yards (D.Gardeck).PENALTY on JAX-A.Johnson, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at 50.

Every drive, on the field

JAX attacks →← NE attacks

Q1 15:00PUNT3p · 9y · 1:54
Q1 13:06PUNT6p · 27y · 2:56
Q1 10:10PUNT4p · 20y · 2:30
Q1 7:40FUM8p · 33y · 3:48
Q1 3:52TD10p · 62y · 5:27
Q2 13:25PUNT3p · 7y · 2:12
Q2 11:13INT1p · 0y · 0:09
Q2 11:04FG4p · 4y · 1:55
Q2 9:09TD9p · 65y · 4:46
Q2 4:23INT10p · 70y · 3:27
Q2 0:56MISS7p · 28y · 0:56
Q3 15:00MISS10p · 42y · 5:10
Q3 9:50TD15p · 72y · 8:42
Q3 1:08INT1p · 0y · 0:14
Q3 0:54TD1p · 5y · 0:04
Q3 0:50FG9p · 69y · 2:33
Q4 13:17TD8p · 49y · 5:15
Q4 8:02DOWNS11p · 48y · 5:29
Q4 2:33PUNT3p · 2y · 2:10
Q4 0:23END1p · 2y · 0:23

Patriots9 drives2scoring drives (0 TD)22%drives ending in pointsOWN 32avg starting field position1three-and-outs4turnovers incl. downs

Jaguars10 drives5scoring drives (5 TD)50%drives ending in pointsOWN 34avg starting field position2three-and-outs1turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q2
13:25Touchdown(Shotgun) T.Lawrence pass short middle to J.Cameron for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Matiscik, Holder-L.Cooke.0–7
Q2
9:09Field goalA.Borregales 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-J.Ashby, Holder-M.Wishnowsky.3–7
Q2
4:23Touchdown(Shotgun) T.Lawrence pass short middle to J.Meyers for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Matiscik, Holder-L.Cooke.3–14
Q3
1:08Touchdown(Shotgun) T.Lawrence pass deep left to P.Washington for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Penalty on NE-M.Jones, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Matiscik, Holder-L.Cooke.3–21
Q3
0:50TouchdownC.Rodriguez up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Matiscik, Holder-L.Cooke.3–28
Q4
13:17Field goalA.Borregales 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-J.Ashby, Holder-M.Wishnowsky.6–28
Q4
8:02TouchdownB.Tuten up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Matiscik, Holder-L.Cooke.6–35

Team stats

NEvsJAX

317Total yards315

234Passing yards178

83Rushing yards137

5.3Yards per play5.2

17First downs23

4-12 · 33%Third down8-12 · 67%

1-2Fourth down0-0

0-3Red zone TDs5-5

18/31Comp / att19/29

3.2Yards per carry4.6

3Turnovers1

3 (−11 yds)Sacks allowed1 (−4 yds)

9 for 68Penalties7 for 56

28:07Possession31:53

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play-0.253+0.233

Dropback EPA-0.330+0.228

Rush EPA-0.129+0.239

Success rate37%51%

Explosive plays53

Plays6059

Who moved the needle

J.MeyersTargets: 8+8.3

T.LawrenceDropbacks: 31+7.1

M.HollinsTargets: 9+5.0

P.WashingtonTargets: 5+4.6

R.StevensonCarries: 7+3.6

R.DoubsTargets: 4+3.1

Cost their side the most

D.MayeDropbacks: 30-12.0

K.WilliamsTargets: 3-6.0

B.StrangeTargets: 5-4.8

Box score

New England Patriots

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Drake MayeQB	14/25	199	8.0	2	3-11	21.4	48.6
Tommy DeVitoQB	3/5	30	6.0	0	0-0	10.3	77.1
Efton Chism IIIWR	1/1	16	16.0	0	0-0	99.4	118.8

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
TreVeyon HendersonRB	8	23	2.9	5
Rhamondre StevensonRB	7	22	3.1	5
Drake MayeQB	4	18	4.5	9
Corey KinerRB	6	18	3.0	7
Tommy DeVitoQB	1	2	2.0	2

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	LONG
Mack HollinsWR	6	9	87	14.5	21
Romeo DoubsWR	3	4	49	16.3	21
DeMario DouglasWR	1	5	38	38.0	38
Kyle WilliamsWR	1	3	34	34.0	34
Rhamondre StevensonRB	3	3	16	5.3	12
Corey KinerRB	1	1	9	9.0	9
TreVeyon HendersonRB	1	1	6	6.0	6
Hunter HenryTE	1	2	5	5.0	5
Efton Chism IIIWR	1	2	1	1.0	1

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Carlton Davis IIICB	8	7	0	1	1	0
Robert SpillaneLB	7	2	0	0	0	0
Charles WoodsCB	5	4	0	0	0	0
Kevin ByardS	5	3	0	0	0	0
Milton WilliamsDT	5	3	0	0	0	0
Gabe JacasLB	5	2	0.5	0	0	2
Marcus JonesCB	4	3	0	0	3	0
Christian EllissLB	3	1	0	0	0	1
Christian GonzalezCB	2	2	0	0	1	0
Christian BarmoreDT	2	1	0	0	0	1

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Andy BorregalesPK	2/3	66.7	40	0/0	6

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Trevor LawrenceQB	19/29	182	6.3	3	1	1-4	77.4	102.9

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Bhayshul TutenRB	15	73	4.9	1	12
Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB	8	37	4.6	1	9
Trevor LawrenceQB	4	25	6.3	0	15
Ameer AbdullahRB	3	2	0.7	0	3

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Jakobi MeyersWR	7	8	64	9.1	1	14
Parker WashingtonWR	3	5	40	13.3	1	18
Brenton StrangeTE	3	5	32	10.7	0	23
Bhayshul TutenRB	2	2	17	8.5	0	15
Josh CameronWR	1	2	12	12.0	1	12
LeQuint Allen Jr.RB	2	2	9	4.5	0	7
Brian Thomas Jr.WR	1	1	8	8.0	0	8
Ameer AbdullahRB	0	1	0	0.0	0	0
Nate BoerkircherTE	0	1	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	PD	QB HTS
Ventrell MillerLB	7	4	0	1	0
Ruke OrhorhoroDT	6	2	1	0	1
Foyesade OluokunLB	6	2	0	0	2
DaVon HamiltonDT	5	3	0.5	0	1
Antonio JohnsonS	5	2	0	0	0
Josh Hines-AllenDE	5	1	0	0	0
Jarrian JonesCB	4	3	0	1	0
Caleb RansawS	4	1	0	0	0
Travis HunterWR	4	1	0	1	0
Eric MurrayS	3	2	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Cam LittlePK	0/1	0.0	0	5/5	5

Before kickoff · Regular season through week 2 · rank out of 32

Where it was expected to be decided

1Jaguars pass rush vs Patriots pass protection
The Jaguars' pass rush ranks 9th in sack rate (8.2% of dropbacks, 61 dropbacks faced) and faces a Patriots pass protection ranked 25th (8.7% sacked, 69 dropbacks).
25thNE offense16 spots apart9thJAX defense

When the Patriots have the ballEdge JAX · +9 ranks

NE dropback offenseEPA per dropbackJAX pass defense

21st-0.0169 dropbacks

+0.03 allowed61 dropbacks faced15th

NE run gameEPA per rushJAX run defense

26th-0.2149 rushes

JAX +9

-0.08 allowed44 rushes faced17th

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Jaguars have the ballEdge JAX · +8 ranks

JAX dropback offenseEPA per dropbackNE pass defense

6th+0.2755 dropbacks

-0.22 allowed73 dropbacks faced2nd

JAX run gameEPA per rushNE run defense

8th+0.0153 rushes

JAX +8

-0.11 allowed41 rushes faced16th

Third downEdge JAX · +16 ranks

NE third-down offensethird-down conversion rateJAX third-down defense

19th39.3%28 third downs

JAX +16

27.8% allowed18 third downs faced3rd

JAX third-down offensethird-down conversion rateNE third-down defense

9th47.6%21 third downs

NE +8

17.4% allowed23 third downs faced1st

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneEdge JAX · +22 ranks

NE red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateJAX red-zone defense

28th33%3 trips

JAX +22

33% allowed6 trips faced6th

JAX red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateNE red-zone defense

6th75%4 trips

0% allowed3 trips faced1st

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsEdge NE · +8 ranks

NE big-play offenseexplosive-play rateJAX defense against big plays

18th9.3%118 plays

NE +8

12.4% allowed105 plays faced26th

JAX big-play offenseexplosive-play rateNE defense against big plays

3rd13.0%108 plays

7.9% allowed114 plays faced9th

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksEdge JAX · +16 ranks

NE pass protectionsack rateJAX pass rush

25th8.7% sacked69 dropbacks

JAX +16

8.2% of dropbacks61 dropbacks faced9th

JAX pass protectionsack rateNE pass rush

11th5.5% sacked55 dropbacks

8.2% of dropbacks73 dropbacks faced8th

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversEdge JAX · +22 ranks

NE ball securityturnovers per gameJAX takeaway defense

29th2.5 giveaways a game2 games

JAX +22

1.5 takeaways a game2 games7th

JAX ball securityturnovers per gameNE takeaway defense

4th0.5 giveaways a game2 games

JAX +8

1.0 takeaways a game2 games12th

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

Sample: NE 2 games, 118 offensive and 114 defensive plays · JAX 2 games, 108 offensive and 105 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

Corey KinerFB→ Rhamondre Stevenson

A.J. BrownWR→ Romeo Doubs

Matt PryorRG→ Alijah Vera-Tucker

Dre'Mont JonesSLB→ Gabe Jacas

Craig WoodsonSS→ Jaylen Reed

Walker LittleLT→ Anton Harrison

Davon GodchauxRDT→ Ruke Orhorhoro

Dennis GardeckSLB→ DaVon Hamilton

Montaric BrownRCB→ Jarrian Jones

Jessie Bates IIISS→ Eric Murray

AwayPatriots3 next man up · 4 questionable · 5 changes