Steelers 16, Saints 10: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 7 · Sun, Oct 25 · Stade de FranceFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
PIT	3	10	3	0	16
NO	0	10	0	0	10

Home · 3-5New OrleansSaints10

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 6:48 PM ET

The Pittsburgh Steelers beat the New Orleans Saints 16-10 on Sun, Oct 25 at Stade de France in Saint-Denis (Week 7, 2026 season). Records after the game: Steelers 6-2, Saints 3-5. T.Shough (NO) led all players with +11.9 EPA on 41 dropbacks.

Who won Steelers vs Saints?

The Pittsburgh Steelers won 16-10. By quarter: PIT 3-10-3-0, NO 0-10-0-0.

Who was the best player in Steelers vs Saints?

By expected points added: T.Shough (NO, +11.9 EPA on 41 dropbacks), D.Vele (NO, +8.3 EPA on 5 targets) and J.Warren (PIT, +4.8 EPA on 18 carries).

What was the turning point of Steelers vs Saints?

The biggest swing in win probability (17 points toward the Steelers) came in Q3 at 7:43: (Shotgun) T.Shough pass short right intended for C.Olave INTERCEPTED by P.Wilson at PIT 11. P.Wilson to PIT 29 for 18 yards (B.Lance).

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Steelers 16, Saints 10: Week 7 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-10-25-pit-at-no (updated 2026-11-10).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 7 issue →

Week 7EarnedGame file →

Steelers46% success · +0.12 EPA/play

1610

Saints42% success · +0.02 EPA/play

PIT 78% deserveddeserved 22% NO

Steelers earned it: the snaps said Steelers by 4.2, a deserved win probability of 78%.

Deserved marginPIT by 4.2

Real marginPIT by 6

Luck pts PIT+1.9

Luck pts NO−1.0

The swingQ2 8:34 · PIT · +21 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 4-D.Metcalf to NO 4 for 51 yards (7-J.Sanker).

Flags that moved this game

1Offensive Pass InterferencePIT → helped NO · Wk 7 Q2 9:26 · 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 30-J.Warren. PENALTY on PIT-4-D.Metcalf, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards,…+4.0 WP
2False StartNO → helped PIT · Wk 7 Q4 10:15 · (Shotgun) PENALTY on NO-72-A.Richards, False Start, 4 yards, enforced at PIT 37 - No Play.+3.8 WP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA132 plays, one strand0 lead changes · 9 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewBill Vinovich11 accepted flags in this game · 13.9 a game this season (about league average)Market vs SnapsLine: PIT by 3 · Snaps: PIT by 4.2Steelers covered; the snaps agree

16@10

Week 7

If the 39-yard kick had missed

Saints after the play27%what really happened

Q3 0:18 9-C.Boswell 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

NO ▲PIT ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+17%Q3 7:43 · for PIT(Shotgun) T.Shough pass short right intended for C.Olave INTERCEPTED by P.Wilson at PIT 11. P.Wilson to PIT 29 for 18 yards (B.Lance).
+13%Q2 8:34 · for PIT(Shotgun) A.Rodgers pass deep left to D.Metcalf to NO 4 for 51 yards (J.Sanker).
+13%Q2 1:45 · for NO(Shotgun) T.Shough pass short left to D.Vele for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-Z.Wood, Holder-R.Wright.
+8%Q3 12:53 · for NO(Shotgun) T.Shough pass deep right to D.Vele to PIT 36 for 24 yards (D.Elliott).
+8%Q4 9:32 · for PITD.Carlson 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-Z.Wood, Holder-R.Wright.

Every drive, on the field

NO attacks →← PIT attacks

Q1 15:00FG8p · 51y · 4:09
Q1 10:51PUNT11p · 37y · 5:30
Q1 5:21PUNT13p · 43y · 7:04
Q2 13:17FG7p · 62y · 3:00
Q2 10:17TD6p · 77y · 3:32
Q2 6:45TD12p · 52y · 5:00
Q2 1:45FG11p · 40y · 1:45
Q3 15:00INT14p · 68y · 7:28
Q3 7:32FG14p · 51y · 7:18
Q3 0:14MISS11p · 47y · 5:47
Q4 9:27PUNT3p · -2y · 2:23
Q4 7:04PUNT4p · 6y · 1:12
Q4 5:52END11p · 49y · 5:52

Steelers6 drives4scoring drives (1 TD)67%drives ending in pointsOWN 28avg starting field position1three-and-outs0turnovers incl. downs

Saints6 drives2scoring drives (1 TD)33%drives ending in pointsOWN 25avg starting field position0three-and-outs1turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
10:51Field goal C.Boswell 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-C.Kuntz, Holder-C.Johnston.3–0
Q2
10:17Field goalD.Carlson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-Z.Wood, Holder-R.Wright.3–3
Q2
6:45Touchdown(Shotgun) A.Rodgers pass short left to D.Washington for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Boswell extra point is GOOD, Center-C.Kuntz, Holder-C.Johnston.10–3
Q2
1:45Touchdown(Shotgun) T.Shough pass short left to D.Vele for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-Z.Wood, Holder-R.Wright.10–10
Q2
0:00Field goalC.Boswell 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-C.Kuntz, Holder-C.Johnston.13–10
Q3
0:14Field goal C.Boswell 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-C.Kuntz, Holder-C.Johnston.16–10

Team stats

PITvsNO

343Total yards281

195Passing yards263

148Rushing yards18

5.4Yards per play4.9

20First downs19

10-16 · 63%Third down6-12 · 50%

0-0Fourth down2-2

1-4Red zone TDs1-3

19/30Comp / att30/38

4.9Yards per carry1.1

0Turnovers1

3 (−17 yds)Sacks allowed2 (−15 yds)

6 for 57Penalties5 for 39

32:03Possession27:57

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play+0.123+0.061

Dropback EPA+0.104+0.290

Rush EPA+0.147-0.526

Success rate46%42%

Explosive plays72

Plays6157

Who moved the needle

T.ShoughDropbacks: 41+11.9

D.VeleTargets: 5+8.3

J.WarrenCarries: 18+4.8

A.KamaraTargets: 7+4.2

A.RodgersDropbacks: 34+3.5

B.BrownTargets: 3+2.7

Cost their side the most

K.MillerCarries: 8-4.4

A.KamaraCarries: 6-3.6

G.BernardTargets: 5-1.9

Box score

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Aaron RodgersQB	19/30	212	7.1	1	0	3-17	66.4	95.4

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
Jaylen WarrenRB	18	101	5.6	29
Rico DowdleRB	9	41	4.6	16
Aaron RodgersQB	3	6	2.0	8

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
DK MetcalfWR	2	6	56	28.0	0	51
Rico DowdleRB	6	6	45	7.5	0	13
Jaylen WarrenRB	3	4	36	12.0	0	26
Germie BernardWR	3	5	27	9.0	0	20
Brandon SmithWR	2	2	24	12.0	0	20
Pat FreiermuthTE	2	4	20	10.0	0	11
Darnell WashingtonTE	1	1	4	4.0	1	4

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Patrick QueenLB	10	7	1	1	1	1
Jamel DeanCB	7	6	0	0	0	0
Asante Samuel Jr.CB	7	6	0	0	0	0
Jalen RamseyCB	7	3	0	0	0	0
Payton WilsonLB	6	3	0	0	1	0
Keeanu BentonDT	4	2	0	2	1	0
Travis HomerRB	3	3	0	0	0	0
Jaquan BriskerS	3	1	0	0	0	0
Robert Spears-JenningsS	3	1	0	0	0	0
T.J. WattLB	2	1	1	1	0	2

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Chris BoswellPK	3/3	100.0	47	1/1	10

New Orleans Saints

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Tyler ShoughQB	30/38	278	7.3	1	1	2-15	67.9	95.0

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
Tyler ShoughQB	3	7	2.3	6
Kendre MillerRB	8	6	0.8	3
Alvin KamaraRB	6	5	0.8	3

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Barion BrownWR	3	3	57	19.0	0	49
Alvin KamaraRB	7	7	57	8.1	0	13
Chris OlaveWR	6	10	56	9.3	0	14
Devaughn VeleWR	5	5	54	10.8	1	24
Kendre MillerRB	3	5	22	7.3	0	13
Bryce LanceWR	2	2	12	6.0	0	8
Noah FantTE	2	2	11	5.5	0	6
Juwan JohnsonTE	1	3	7	7.0	0	7
Oscar DelpTE	1	1	2	2.0	0	2

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	QB HTS
Jonas SankerS	9	7	0	0	0
Pete WernerLB	8	3	0	0	1
Kaden EllissLB	6	4	0	0	0
Julian BlackmonS	6	3	0	0	0
Martin Emerson Jr.CB	5	5	0	0	0
Justin ReidS	4	2	0	0	0
Carl GrandersonDE	4	1	1.5	1	2
Vernon BroughtonDT	4	1	0	0	0
Cameron JordanDE	3	2	0	1	0
Anfernee JenningsLB	3	2	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Daniel Carlson	1/2	50.0	38	1/1	4

Before kickoff · Regular season through week 6 · rank out of 32

Where it was expected to be decided

1Steelers run game vs Saints run defense
The Steelers' run game ranks 3rd in EPA per rush (+0.05, 119 rushes) against a Saints run defense ranked 31st (+0.02 allowed, 151 rushes faced).
3rdPIT offense28 spots apart31stNO defense
2Steelers pass defense vs Saints dropback offense
The Steelers' pass defense ranks 7th in EPA per dropback (-0.05 allowed, 227 dropbacks faced) and faces a Saints dropback offense ranked 22nd (-0.02, 256 dropbacks).
22ndNO offense15 spots apart7thPIT defense
3Steelers takeaway defense vs Saints ball security
The Steelers' takeaway defense ranks 7th in turnovers per game (1.5 takeaways a game, 6 games) and faces a Saints ball security ranked 26th (1.8 giveaways a game, 6 games).
26thNO offense19 spots apart7thPIT defenseSmall sample, read with care Why sample size matters

When the Steelers have the ballEdge PIT · +28 ranks

PIT dropback offenseEPA per dropbackNO pass defense

27th-0.13256 dropbacks

+0.10 allowed227 dropbacks faced23rd

PIT run gameEPA per rushNO run defense

3rd+0.05119 rushes

PIT +28

+0.02 allowed151 rushes faced31st

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Saints have the ballEdge PIT · +15 ranks

NO dropback offenseEPA per dropbackPIT pass defense

22nd-0.02256 dropbacks

PIT +15

-0.05 allowed227 dropbacks faced7th

NO run gameEPA per rushPIT run defense

20th-0.11145 rushes

-0.09 allowed139 rushes faced14th

Third downNo big edge

PIT third-down offensethird-down conversion rateNO third-down defense

28th34.7%75 third downs

47.1% allowed70 third downs faced29th

NO third-down offensethird-down conversion ratePIT third-down defense

12th42.5%87 third downs

33.8% allowed80 third downs faced6th

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneNo big edge

PIT red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateNO red-zone defense

22nd50%16 trips

57% allowed28 trips faced16th

NO red-zone offensered-zone touchdown ratePIT red-zone defense

3rd76%21 trips

50% allowed10 trips faced6th

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsNo big edge

PIT big-play offenseexplosive-play rateNO defense against big plays

20th8.3%375 plays

10.8% allowed378 plays faced26th

NO big-play offenseexplosive-play ratePIT defense against big plays

27th7.0%401 plays

10.4% allowed366 plays faced23rd

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksEdge NO · +10 ranks

PIT pass protectionsack rateNO pass rush

24th7.4% sacked256 dropbacks

NO +10

6.6% of dropbacks227 dropbacks faced14th

NO pass protectionsack ratePIT pass rush

12th5.1% sacked256 dropbacks

7.0% of dropbacks227 dropbacks faced12th

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversEdge PIT · +19 ranks

PIT ball securityturnovers per gameNO takeaway defense

19th1.2 giveaways a game6 games

1.2 takeaways a game6 games14th

NO ball securityturnovers per gamePIT takeaway defense

26th1.8 giveaways a game6 games

PIT +19

1.5 takeaways a game6 games7th

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

Sample: PIT 6 games, 375 offensive and 366 defensive plays · NO 6 games, 401 offensive and 378 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

Riley NowakowskiFB→ Rico Dowdle

Ben SkowronekWR→ Brandon Smith

Yahya BlackLDE→ Nick Herbig

Jordyn TysonWR→ Bryce Lance

Kelvin Banks Jr.LT→ Erik McCoy

William ShermanC→ Asim Richards

Cesar RuizRG→ Jeremiah Wright

Nathan ShepherdNT→ Colby Wooden

AwaySteelers1 next man up · 1 questionable · 3 changes