Lions 45, Cardinals 21: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 5 · Sun, Oct 11 · State Farm StadiumFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
DET	0	24	14	7	45
ARI	7	0	7	7	21

Home · 3-6ArizonaCardinals21

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 7:53 PM ET

The Detroit Lions beat the Arizona Cardinals 45-21 on Sun, Oct 11 at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, AZ (Week 5, 2026 season). Records after the game: Lions 6-2, Cardinals 3-6. J.Goff (DET) led all players with +16.4 EPA on 33 dropbacks.

Who won Lions vs Cardinals?

The Detroit Lions won 45-21. By quarter: DET 0-24-14-7, ARI 7-0-7-7.

Who was the best player in Lions vs Cardinals?

By expected points added: J.Goff (DET, +16.4 EPA on 33 dropbacks), S.LaPorta (DET, +12.9 EPA on 5 targets) and J.Williams (DET, +8.1 EPA on 4 targets).

What was the turning point of Lions vs Cardinals?

The biggest swing in win probability (14 points toward the Lions) came in Q2 at 9:30: J.Goff pass short right to S.LaPorta for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-H.Hatten, Holder-J.Fox.

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Lions 45, Cardinals 21: Week 5 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-10-11-det-at-ari (updated 2026-11-11).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 5 issue →

Week 5EarnedGame file →

Lions48% success · +0.29 EPA/play

4521

Cardinals44% success · +0.02 EPA/play

DET 99% deserveddeserved 1% ARI

Lions earned it: the snaps said Lions by 12.5, a deserved win probability of 99%.

Deserved marginDET by 12.5

Real marginDET by 24

Luck pts DET+5.7

Luck pts ARI−4.5

The swingQ2 9:38 · DET · +17 pts of win probability. 16-J.Goff pass short right to 87-S.LaPorta for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Flags that moved this game

1Unnecessary RoughnessARI → helped DET · Wk 5 Q2 13:37 · (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 87-S.LaPorta to ARI 35 for 12 yards (29-D.Burke). PENALTY on ARI-1-Ma.Wilson,…+10.2 WP
2Illegal Block Above the WaistARI → helped DET · Wk 5 Q2 15:00 · (Shotgun) 4-J.Love left tackle to ARI 22 for 1 yard (97-A.Hutchinson). PENALTY on ARI-14-Mi.Wilson, Illegal Block Above the…+2.8 WP

Fourth downs our model disagreed with

1DET · 4th & 9Dan Campbell chose Punt at opp 42, Wk 5 Q1 0:28, down 7. Model: Field goal (lean). Result: punted.−0.55 EP
2ARI · 4th & 3Mike LaFleur chose Punt at own 36, Wk 5 Q2 8:36, down 7. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.38 EP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA151 plays, one strand1 lead change · 12 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewCarl Cheffers9 accepted flags in this game · 13.3 a game this season (one of the quietest crews)Market vs SnapsLine: DET by 5.5 · Snaps: DET by 12.5Lions covered; the snaps agree

45@21

Week 5

If the Cardinals had stopped that fourth-and-3

Cardinals after the play68%what really happened

Q2 13:37 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 87-S.LaPorta to ARI 35 for 12 yards (29-D.Burke). PENALTY on ARI-1-Ma.Wilson, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at ARI 35.

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

ARI ▲DET ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+14%Q2 9:30 · for DETJ.Goff pass short right to S.LaPorta for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-H.Hatten, Holder-J.Fox.
+12%Q2 13:37 · for DET(Shotgun) J.Goff pass short middle to S.LaPorta to ARZ 35 for 12 yards (D.Burke).PENALTY on ARZ-Ma.Wilson, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at ARZ 35.
+9%Q1 5:56 · for ARI(Shotgun) Mi.Wilson pass short right to J.Brissett to DET 2 for 7 yards (J.Campbell; E.Rakestraw).
+7%Q1 10:18 · for ARI(Shotgun) J.Brissett pass short middle to K.Bourne to DET 30 for 22 yards (R.McCreary).
+6%Q2 4:50 · for DET(Shotgun) J.Goff pass short left to J.Williams for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-H.Hatten, Holder-J.Fox.

Every drive, on the field

ARI attacks →← DET attacks

Q1 15:00PUNT3p · -7y · 2:00
Q1 13:00TD14p · 73y · 7:54
Q1 5:06PUNT3p · -3y · 1:34
Q1 3:32PUNT3p · 3y · 1:38
Q1 1:54PUNT3p · 1y · 1:33
Q1 0:21PUNT3p · -2y · 1:03
Q2 14:18TD7p · 54y · 1:56
Q2 12:22PUNT3p · 3y · 1:31
Q2 10:51TD4p · 47y · 1:21
Q2 9:30PUNT3p · 7y · 1:01
Q2 8:29TD9p · 75y · 3:39
Q2 4:50PUNT3p · 1y · 1:47
Q2 3:03FG8p · 35y · 2:10
Q2 0:53INT6p · 14y · 0:53
Q3 15:00MISS5p · 31y · 2:41
Q3 12:19TD5p · 57y · 2:37
Q3 9:42TD10p · 72y · 5:20
Q3 4:22TD8p · 74y · 3:17
Q3 1:05DOWNS8p · 45y · 3:10
Q4 12:55TD13p · 79y · 7:52
Q4 5:03TD13p · 78y · 2:52
Q4 2:11PUNT3p · 5y · 1:50
Q4 0:21END1p · 8y · 0:21

Lions11 drives7scoring drives (6 TD)64%drives ending in pointsOWN 36avg starting field position4three-and-outs0turnovers incl. downs

Cardinals11 drives3scoring drives (3 TD)27%drives ending in pointsOWN 26avg starting field position5three-and-outs2turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
5:06TouchdownJ.Brissett pass short right to T.Quitoriano for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Ryland extra point is GOOD, Center-C.Kreiter, Holder-B.Gillikin.0–7
Q2
12:22Touchdown(No Huddle) J.Gibbs up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-H.Hatten, Holder-J.Fox.7–7
Q2
9:30TouchdownJ.Goff pass short right to S.LaPorta for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-H.Hatten, Holder-J.Fox.14–7
Q2
4:50Touchdown(Shotgun) J.Goff pass short left to J.Williams for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-H.Hatten, Holder-J.Fox.21–7
Q2
0:53Field goalJ.Bates 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-H.Hatten, Holder-J.Fox.24–7
Q3
9:42Touchdown(Shotgun) J.Goff pass deep right to J.Williams for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARZ-W.Nolen was injured during the play. J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-H.Hatten, Holder-J.Fox.31–7
Q3
4:22TouchdownJ.Brissett pass short right to T.Quitoriano for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Ryland extra point is GOOD, Center-C.Kreiter, Holder-B.Gillikin.31–14
Q3
1:05TouchdownJ.Goff up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-H.Hatten, Holder-J.Fox.38–14
Q4
5:03TouchdownJ.Gibbs right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-H.Hatten, Holder-J.Fox.45–14
Q4
2:11Touchdown(Shotgun) J.Brissett pass short right to T.McBride for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Ryland extra point is GOOD, Center-C.Kreiter, Holder-B.Gillikin.45–21

Team stats

DETvsARI

412Total yards327

249Passing yards271

163Rushing yards56

6.3Yards per play4.6

24First downs20

4-13 · 31%Third down8-18 · 44%

4-4Fourth down2-3

4-4Red zone TDs3-4

19/30Comp / att30/48

5.1Yards per carry3.1

0Turnovers1

3 (−22 yds)Sacks allowed5 (−28 yds)

4 for 31Penalties5 for 45

29:49Possession30:11

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play+0.326+0.022

Dropback EPA+0.496+0.123

Rush EPA+0.151-0.294

Success rate48%44%

Explosive plays104

Plays6570

Who moved the needle

J.GoffDropbacks: 33+16.4

S.LaPortaTargets: 5+12.9

J.WilliamsTargets: 4+8.1

T.McBrideTargets: 10+7.4

J.GibbsCarries: 25+6.0

J.BrissettDropbacks: 52+4.3

Cost their side the most

J.LoveCarries: 12-4.4

J.BrooksTargets: 7-3.5

S.VakiCarries: 6-3.4

Box score

Detroit Lions

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Jared GoffQB	19/30	271	9.0	3	0	3-22	59.9	125.8

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Jahmyr GibbsRB	25	151	6.0	2	22
Sione VakiRB	6	11	1.8	0	6
Jared GoffQB	1	1	1.0	1	1

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Sam LaPortaTE	5	5	88	17.6	1	38
Amon-Ra St. BrownWR	6	11	69	11.5	0	36
Jahmyr GibbsRB	5	6	56	11.2	0	23
Jameson WilliamsWR	2	4	47	23.5	2	39
Brock WrightTE	1	1	11	11.0	0	11
Isaac TeSlaaWR	0	2	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Jack CampbellLB	11	5	0	0	0	0
D.J. ReedCB	7	7	0	3	1	0
Chuck ClarkS	7	6	0	0	0	0
Roger McCrearyCB	6	5	0	0	6	0
Keith Abney IICB	6	5	0	0	1	0
Derrick BarnesLB	5	3	1	1	0	1
Malcolm RodriguezLB	4	3	0.5	0	0	1
Sione VakiRB	4	2	0	0	0	0
Ennis Rakestraw Jr.CB	4	1	0	0	0	0
DJ WonnumLB	2	2	2	2	0	3

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Jake BatesPK	1/1	100.0	46	6/6	9

Arizona Cardinals

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Jacoby BrissettQB	29/47	292	6.2	3	1	5-28	33.7	91.8
Michael WilsonWR	1/1	7	7.0	0	0	0-0	100.0	95.8

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
Jeremiyah LoveRB	12	22	1.8	8
Jacoby BrissettQB	2	19	9.5	18
Bam KnightRB	1	8	8.0	8
Tyler AllgeierRB	3	7	2.3	3

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Kendrick BourneWR	5	8	70	14.0	0	23
Trey McBrideTE	9	10	66	7.3	1	11
Elijah HigginsTE	3	3	57	19.0	0	38
Michael WilsonWR	4	7	30	7.5	0	17
Reggie VirgilWR	2	5	29	14.5	0	16
Jalen BrooksWR	2	7	16	8.0	0	9
Teagan QuitorianoTE	2	2	15	7.5	2	13
Tyler AllgeierRB	2	2	9	4.5	0	5
Jacoby BrissettQB	1	1	7	7.0	0	7
Jeremiyah LoveRB	0	1	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Budda BakerS	11	6	1	1	0	1
Mack Wilson Sr.LB	7	3	0	0	0	0
Dadrion Taylor-DemersonS	6	4	0	0	0	0
Roy LopezDT	6	3	1	2	0	1
Denzel BurkeCB	6	2	0	0	0	0
Baron BrowningLB	4	2	1	1	0	1
Walter Nolen IIIDT	4	0	0	0	0	0
Josh SweatLB	3	2	0	0	0	0
Dante StillsDT	3	2	0	1	0	0
Max MeltonCB	3	2	0	0	1	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Chad RylandPK	0/1	0.0	0	3/3	3

Before kickoff · Regular season through week 4 · rank out of 32

Where it was expected to be decided

1Lions dropback offense vs Cardinals pass defense
The Lions' dropback offense ranks 6th in EPA per dropback (+0.24, 174 dropbacks) against a Cardinals pass defense ranked 31st (+0.31 allowed, 124 dropbacks faced).
6thDET offense25 spots apart31stARI defense
2Lions red-zone offense vs Cardinals red-zone defense
The Lions' red-zone offense ranks 3rd in red-zone touchdown rate (76%, 17 trips) against a Cardinals red-zone defense ranked 25th (71% allowed, 14 trips faced).
3rdDET offense22 spots apart25thARI defenseSmall sample, read with care Why sample size matters
3Cardinals third-down offense vs Lions third-down defense
The Cardinals' third-down offense ranks 14th in third-down conversion rate (40.0%, 55 third downs) against a Lions third-down defense ranked 31st (53.8% allowed, 52 third downs faced).
14thARI offense17 spots apart31stDET defense

When the Lions have the ballEdge DET · +25 ranks

DET dropback offenseEPA per dropbackARI pass defense

6th+0.24174 dropbacks

DET +25

+0.31 allowed124 dropbacks faced31st

DET run gameEPA per rushARI run defense

14th-0.0491 rushes

ARI +9

-0.22 allowed106 rushes faced5th

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Cardinals have the ballEdge ARI · +15 ranks

ARI dropback offenseEPA per dropbackDET pass defense

23rd-0.03162 dropbacks

+0.27 allowed192 dropbacks faced29th

ARI run gameEPA per rushDET run defense

12th-0.0397 rushes

ARI +15

+0.01 allowed93 rushes faced27th

Third downEdge ARI · +17 ranks

DET third-down offensethird-down conversion rateARI third-down defense

17th39.1%46 third downs

DET +9

47.7% allowed44 third downs faced26th

ARI third-down offensethird-down conversion rateDET third-down defense

14th40.0%55 third downs

ARI +17

53.8% allowed52 third downs faced31st

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneEdge DET · +22 ranks

DET red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateARI red-zone defense

3rd76%17 trips

DET +22

71% allowed14 trips faced25th

ARI red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateDET red-zone defense

16th57%14 trips

ARI +13

76% allowed17 trips faced29th

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsEdge DET · +12 ranks

DET big-play offenseexplosive-play rateARI defense against big plays

14th9.4%265 plays

DET +12

10.9% allowed230 plays faced26th

ARI big-play offenseexplosive-play rateDET defense against big plays

32nd3.9%259 plays

12.6% allowed285 plays faced32nd

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksNo big edge

DET pass protectionsack rateARI pass rush

10th4.6% sacked174 dropbacks

6.5% of dropbacks124 dropbacks faced12th

ARI pass protectionsack rateDET pass rush

8th4.3% sacked162 dropbacks

7.8% of dropbacks192 dropbacks faced6th

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversNo big edge

DET ball securityturnovers per gameARI takeaway defense

1st0.3 giveaways a game4 games

1.5 takeaways a game4 games8th

ARI ball securityturnovers per gameDET takeaway defense

13th1.0 giveaways a game4 games

1.0 takeaways a game4 games17th

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

Sample: DET 4 games, 265 offensive and 285 defensive plays · ARI 4 games, 259 offensive and 230 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

Blake MillerRT→ Larry Borom

Tyler LacyRDE→ Skyler Gill-Howard

K.J. BrittMLB→ Jack Campbell

Malcolm RodriguezSLB→ DJ Wonnum

Brian BranchSS→ Keith Abney II

Carson BeckQB→ Jacoby Brissett

Tyler AllgeierRB→ Jeremiyah Love

Reggie VirgilWR→ Michael Wilson

Simi FehokoWR→ Jalen Brooks

Devin DuvernayWR→ Kendrick Bourne

Kei'Trel ClarkLCB→ Garrett Williams