NFC East · 2026 season

WashingtonCommanders

2-5-1record3rdin East#15NFC seed-30point diffL1streak

GiantsThu, Nov 12 · 8:15 PM ETNYG -2.5 · O/U 42.5

What changed · Last 4 games (weeks 5-9) vs 4 games before (weeks 1-4)

Biggest improvementOffensesuccess rate29th→14th

Over the last 4 games the offense has posted a 43.3% success rate (233 plays), 14th among 32 teams over their own last 4. In the 4 games before: a 38.6% success rate (259 plays), 29th.

Season EPA ranks ↓Emerging problemRun defenseEPA per rush allowed12th→23rd

Over the last 4 games the run defense has allowed -0.03 EPA per rush (102 rushes), 23rd among 32 teams over their own last 4. In the 4 games before: -0.10 EPA per rush (81 rushes), 12th.

Season EPA ranks ↓Usage shiftJayden Daniels, QBoffensive snap share39%→100%

Jayden Daniels has played 100% of offensive snaps over the last 4 games, up from 39% in the 4 games before. On the field in 4 of 4 and 2 of 4; a game without a snap counts as zero.

Snap counts, week by week ↓

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 8:46 AM ET

The Washington Commanders are 2-5-1 in the 2026 season, 3rd in the NFC East and the No. 15 seed in the NFC, with a point differential of -30. On offense they rank 20th in the league in EPA per play (-0.029); on defense they rank 20th (+0.024 allowed). The Pigskin Nightly model gives them a 5% chance to make the playoffs and 0.0% to win the Super Bowl. The Washington Commanders play next on the road at the New York Giants on Thu, Nov 12, 8:15 PM ET (Week 10), on Prime Video.

What is the Washington Commanders record?

2-5-1, 3rd in the NFC East. Home 2-2-1, road 0-3, division 1-2, conference 2-4, current streak L1. Points: 172 scored, 202 allowed.

Who do the Washington Commanders play next?

The Washington Commanders play next on the road at the New York Giants on Thu, Nov 12, 8:15 PM ET (Week 10), on Prime Video.

What are the Washington Commanders' playoff chances?

5% to make the playoffs, 4% to win the NFC East, 0% to earn the No. 1 seed and the bye, 0.2% to win the NFC and 0.0% to win the Super Bowl, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season (projected record 6.3-10.7).

Who is the Washington Commanders starting quarterback?

Jayden Daniels is first on the Commanders depth chart at quarterback, with Marcus Mariota behind.

Who is injured for the Washington Commanders?

Out, doubtful or on injured reserve: Treylon Burks (WR, out, foot), Daron Payne (DT, injured reserve, foot), Dyami Brown (WR, injured reserve, calf), Javon Kinlaw (DT, injured reserve, knee - mcl) and Jeremy McNichols (RB, injured reserve, foot). Questionable: Chig Okonkwo (TE, questionable, hip), Colson Yankoff (TE, questionable, knee), Lucas Patrick (G, questionable, concussion) and Shy Tuttle (DT, questionable, shoulder).

How good is the Washington Commanders offense and defense?

Offense: 20th in EPA per play (-0.029), 19th on dropbacks, 23rd on runs, success rate 40.9%. Defense: 20th in EPA allowed (+0.024), 19th against the pass, 23rd against the run.

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Washington Commanders 2026: record, EPA, depth chart and injuries”, https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/commanders (updated 2026-11-10).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

From the Commanders Desk

Open the desk →

The TapeFour Daniels sacks and a Rams fourth-down run decide Commanders' 20-13 home lossWashington led 10-6 at the half, then scored no points after the break. Jayden Daniels was sacked four times and the run game produced one first down.Nov 8, 2026 · 3 min read Scouting ReportJayden Daniels' 0.12 EPA meets a Rams defense that ranks fourthNov 7, 2026 · 2 min read

The Wire

The Verdict · 2026

The Commanders, judged from every snap

About rightthe record matches the snaps

Real record2-5-1

Deserved2.5wins

Looking back, not ahead. Deserved wins grade how well a team has played, from every snap of the games already played. They are not a forecast of the games to come. How well they hold up

0.0 luck wins · 17th luckiest in the NFL · net EPA per snap 23rd

Bars: deserved win probability, from the snaps50% line

Bottom lineEvery result so far matched the play or was a coin flip.

How to read this chart

The track:: solid dot = real wins, ring = deserved wins (the record the snaps earned), on a scale from 0 to 8 games. The colored gap between them is the luck.
The strip:: one tile per game, oldest first, with the opponent and the score. The bar is how often the Commanders would win a replay of the same snaps; above the middle line they deserved to win.
The label:: Earned or Fair loss = the result matched the play; Coin flip = it could have gone either way; Lucky / Robbed = the result went against the play.

One-score games1-3decided by 8 or fewer

Chicken Index67%6th most timid of 28

Flags, net+41win prob. points · 8th

Bounce & kick luck+17.1points · +2.1 a game

Latest ruling · Week 9

Rams earned it: the snaps said Rams by 9.3, a deserved win probability of 96%.

From the Lab

The lab file

All Lab tools →

Scheme DNAMost deep shots, least screen rate in the leagueClosest twin: Texans (75%)Clock IQ23rd of 32 at managing the clockDan Quinn · 4 timeouts burned · 0 halves left on the table Deserved Standings

Real152-5-1

Deserved–2.5-5.5

Out of the picture in both worldsSeeds in the NFC, real and as if every game went to the team that deserved it Market vs Snaps−0.3The market has them about rightPoints a game the snaps beat the line · 4-4 against the spread Sliding Doors1loss that one coin-flip play could have flipped103 points of win probability lost to those plays, 45 saved in wins

The season, week by week

Offense EPA/playDefense EPA prevented

Wk 7Bye

Bars above the line are good: offense adding expected points, defense taking them away. The middle line is league average zero.Rest days and miles traveled, all 32 →

The road ahead

Playoff odds, all 32 →

Playoff oddsCommanders2-5-1 · proj 6.3-10.7 · 14th in NFC5%▼ 7 pts

Win it all <0.1% · likeliest seed No. 3 (2%)Full odds →

Next 5 · schedule leftNo. 10 hardest of 32 · avg opp +0.7 →

Regular season · rank among 32 teams

Where the Commanders stand

Offense

EPA per play-0.02920th

Dropback EPA+0.03019th

Rush EPA-0.13123rd

Success rate40.9%25th

Defense

EPA allowed+0.02420th

Pass EPA allowed+0.07019th

Rush EPA allowed-0.06023rd

Success allowed45.9%26th

Pass rate over expected: -0.8% (11th most pass-heavy given down, distance and score). 492 offensive plays logged.

Fantasy points allowed per game: QB 20.7 (4th most) · RB 19.9 (25th most) · WR 36.3 (7th most) · TE 19.0 (3rd most). Defense vs position

Who produces

EPA from the nflverse play-by-play model

Quarterback · 219 dropbacksJ.Daniels+0.071EPA / dropback+4.9CPOE8.5aDOT46%success

Quarterback · 57 dropbacksM.Mariota+0.095EPA / dropback+3.3CPOE8.9aDOT44%success

Rushing	Car	Yds	TD	EPA/car	Success
J.Croskey-Merritt RB	67	239	2	-0.10	36%
R.White RB	54	228	1	-0.05	39%
A.Ekeler RB	25	85	0	-0.16	32%
K.Allen RB	12	41	0	-0.32	50%

Targets	Tgt	Target share	Air share	aDOT	Yds	TD	EPA/tgt
S.Diggs WR	49	20%	19%	8.9	303	5	+0.21
A.Williams WR	39	16%	19%	10.9	284	1	+0.21
C.Okonkwo TE	31	12%	10%	7.3	238	0	+0.00
T.McLaurin WR	28	11%	15%	12.9	230	1	+0.50
T.Burks WR	22	9%	17%	17.6	233	2	+0.32
R.White RB	21	8%	0%	0.2	129	2	+0.07
D.Brown WR	16	6%	12%	16.9	94	0	-0.23
A.Ekeler RB	8	3%	-1%	-2.5	48	0	+0.37

Depth chart, on the field

QuestionableOut / IRFull roster →

Offense3WR 1TE

63CPatrick Allegretti

14WRWilliams McCaffrey

13WRBurks Brown ·

DefenseBase 3-4 D

39FSReaves Martin

29LCBDouglas Moreau

90LDEOmenihu Newton

4LILBLuvu Magee

2NBRobertson Sainristil

97NTSettle Barber

23RCBAmos

96RDETuttle Kinlaw ·

52RILBStyles Medrano

92SLBArmstrong Chaisson

25SSCross Owens

98WLBOweh Josephs

HolderTress Way Kick ReturnerRachaad White Long SnapperTyler Ott PunterTress Way Place KickerDrew Stevens Punt ReturnerAntonio Williams

Snap counts

Share of team snaps, every weekThis week's starters →

Offense	1	2	3	4	5	6	8	9
Chris PaulG	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Josh ConerlyT	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Brandon ColemanT	100	86	100	98	100	100	100	100
Samuel CosmiG	100	96			100	97	100	100
Jayden DanielsQB	100	55			100	100	100	100
Antonio WilliamsWR	37	49	41	69	68	67	83	84
Chig OkonkwoTE	56			58	71	76	77	74
Stefon DiggsWR	63	51	59	66		61	65	61
Van JeffersonWR					5		12	58
Rachaad WhiteRB	41	52	43		60	69	47	56
Matt GulbinC		6	6	100				56
Austin EkelerRB				27	10	10	33	45
Lucas PatrickG			94	100	100	100	100	44
Ben SinnottTE	26	68	49	38	37	27	27	42

Defense	1	2	3	4	5	6	8	9
Frankie LuvuLB	53			95	100	98	100	100
Nick CrossS	98	100				89	100	100
Sonny StylesLB	87	100	100	74	100	85	99	97
Trey AmosCB						58	87	97
Amik RobertsonCB	100	100	97	98	98	100	99	96
Charles OmenihuDE	53	53	70	8			67	76
K'Lavon ChaissonLB	76	65	67	68	65	73	71	61
Jeremy ReavesS	100	91	94	80	97	82	93	60
Odafe OwehLB	84	64	64	64	63	53	65	59
Shy TuttleDT	29	31	34	48	20	45	46	57
Quan MartinS	38	55	87	89	99	29	46	56
Dorance Armstrong Jr.LB		44	49	42	49	53	58	53
Tim SettleDT	35	31	36	44	37	40	61	44
Deatrich Wise Jr.DE					39	53	26	37

With / Without

All Commanders splits →

Running backRachaad White53% of snapsSmall sample

+0.25Observed difference
EPA/play, better with

EPA / play+0.003-0.250

Success42.7%27.9%

Points / game22.713.0

With 7 games · 431 playsWithout 1 game · 61 plays (Wk 4)

Opponents avg rating

With

PHI

DAL

SEA

NYG

PHI

LAR+0.2

Without

IND-7.4

Opponents in the games with him were 7.6 pts stronger on average

Other starters out

Without games:Jayden Daniels QB · 1/1, Terry McLaurin WR · 1/1

With games:Chig Okonkwo TE · 2/7, Daron Payne DT · 2/7, Terry McLaurin WR · 2/7, Jayden Daniels QB · 1/7 +1 more

Team trend EPA/play, up to 4 games each side of his first absence

Before (Wks 1-3)+0.018From Wk 4 on (Wks 4-8)-0.032

QuarterbackJayden Daniels93% of snapsSmall sample

+0.18Observed difference
EPA/play, better with

EPA / play+0.017-0.163

Success44.6%29.8%

Points / game21.023.0

With 6 games · 368 playsWithout 2 games · 124 plays (Wks 3, 4)

Opponents avg rating

With

PHI

DAL

NYG

PHI

LAR-0.2

Without

SEA

IND-2.3

Opponents in the games with him were 2.1 pts stronger on average

Other starters out

Without games:Chig Okonkwo TE · 1/2, Rachaad White RB · 1/2, Terry McLaurin WR · 1/2

With games:Daron Payne DT · 2/6, Terry McLaurin WR · 2/6, Chig Okonkwo TE · 1/6, Stefon Diggs WR · 1/6

Team trend EPA/play, up to 4 games each side of his first absence

Before (Wks 1-2)+0.064From Wk 3 on (Wks 3-6)-0.058

Wide receiverTerry McLaurin60% of snaps

+0.18Observed difference
EPA/play, better with

EPA / play+0.040-0.136

Success42.6%35.8%

Points / game25.517.7

With 4 games · 258 playsWithout 3 games · 176 plays (Wks 4, 8, 9)

Opponents avg rating

With

PHI

DAL

SEA

NYG-1.0

Without

IND

PHI

LAR-3.7

Opponents in the games with him were 2.7 pts stronger on average

Other starters out

Without games:Daron Payne DT · 2/3, Jayden Daniels QB · 1/3, Rachaad White RB · 1/3

With games:Chig Okonkwo TE · 2/4, Jayden Daniels QB · 1/4, Stefon Diggs WR · 1/4

Team trend EPA/play, up to 4 games each side of his first absence

Before (Wks 1-3)+0.018From Wk 4 on (Wks 4-8)-0.032

Wide receiverStefon Diggs61% of snapsSmall sample

-0.16Observed difference
EPA/play, better without

EPA / play-0.048+0.111

Success40.3%45.0%

Points / game20.727.0

With 7 games · 432 playsWithout 1 game · 60 plays (Wk 5)

Opponents avg rating

With

PHI

DAL

SEA

IND

PHI

LAR-1.0

Without

NYG+1.1

Opponents in the games with him were 2.1 pts weaker on average

Other starters out

With games:Terry McLaurin WR · 3/7, Chig Okonkwo TE · 2/7, Daron Payne DT · 2/7, Jayden Daniels QB · 2/7 +1 more

Team trend EPA/play, up to 4 games each side of his first absence

Before (Wks 1-4)-0.045From Wk 5 on (Wks 5-9)-0.011

No "without" sample yet

Never missed a game

Key Commanders starters who have taken the field in every game so far. A split appears here once one of them sits out a full game.

Josh Conerly Jr.Tackle · 8/8 games100%
Amik RobertsonCornerback · 8/8 games99%
Sonny StylesLinebacker · 8/8 games93%
Jeremy ReavesSafety · 8/8 games87%
K'Lavon ChaissonEdge rusher · 8/8 games68%
Odafe OwehEdge rusher · 8/8 games65%
Antonio WilliamsWide receiver · 8/8 games62%
Rasul DouglasCornerback · 8/8 games57%

Bar = average share of his unit's snaps

Observed differences between groups of games, not the player's causal effect. Why sample size matters · What EPA is

Injury report

Whole league

Out, doubtful or on IR

Treylon BurksWR · #13 · FootOut
Daron PayneDT · #94 · FootIR
Dyami BrownWR · #6 · CalfIR
Javon KinlawDT · #99 · Knee - MCLIR
Jeremy McNicholsRB · #26 · FootIR

Questionable

Chig OkonkwoTE · #85 · HipQuestionable
Colson YankoffTE · #80 · KneeQuestionable
Lucas PatrickG · #63 · ConcussionQuestionable
Shy TuttleDT · #96 · ShoulderQuestionable

NFC East

Full standings

GiantsDiv 2-0 · Home 3-1 · Road 2-1-15-2-1+10 2

CowboysDiv 2-1 · Home 1-3 · Road 3-24-5+10 3

CommandersDiv 1-2 · Home 2-2-1 · Road 0-32-5-1-30 4

EaglesDiv 1-3 · Home 1-4 · Road 1-32-7-73