Bills 37, Rams 34: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 5 · Mon, Oct 12 · SoFi StadiumFinal/OT

Final

	1	2	3	4	OT	T
BUF	6	7	6	15	3	37
LAR	0	7	7	20	0	34

Home · 5-4Los AngelesRams34

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 2:59 PM ET

The Buffalo Bills beat the Los Angeles Rams 37-34 on Mon, Oct 12 at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA (Week 5, 2026 season). Records after the game: Bills 7-1, Rams 5-4. J.Allen (BUF) led all players with +20.1 EPA on 29 dropbacks.

Who won Bills vs Rams?

The Buffalo Bills won 37-34. By quarter: BUF 6-7-6-15-3, LAR 0-7-7-20-0.

Who was the best player in Bills vs Rams?

By expected points added: J.Allen (BUF, +20.1 EPA on 29 dropbacks), M.Stafford (LA, +18.5 EPA on 56 dropbacks) and T.Higbee (LA, +8.0 EPA on 6 targets).

What was the turning point of Bills vs Rams?

The biggest swing in win probability (40 points toward the Bills) came in overtime at 4:16: H.Mevis 48 yard field goal is BLOCKED (G.Rousseau), Center-J.Cardona, Holder-E.Evans.

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Bills 37, Rams 34: Week 5 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-10-12-buf-at-lar (updated 2026-11-10).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 5 issue →

Week 5Coin flipGame file →

Bills55% success · +0.31 EPA/play

3734

Rams48% success · +0.23 EPA/play

BUF 44% deserveddeserved 56% LAR

Bills won a coin flip: the snaps had it 44% for Bills.

Deserved marginLAR by 0.9

Real marginBUF by 3

Luck pts BUF+4.3

Luck pts LAR−0.1

The swingOT 4:16 · LA · −47 pts of win probability. 92-H.Mevis 48 yard field goal is BLOCKED (15-G.Rousseau), Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans.

Flags that moved this game

1Defensive HoldingLA → helped BUF · Wk 5 Q3 3:49 · (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right end to LA 4 for 9 yards (5-K.Kinchens). PENALTY on LA-30-J.Wallace, Defensive Holding, 2…+10.9 WP
2Defensive Pass InterferenceBUF → helped LA · Wk 5 Q3 10:18 · (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep middle to 89-T.Higbee [55-M.Hoecht]. PENALTY on BUF-24-C.Bishop, Defensive Pass…+8.6 WP

Fourth downs our model disagreed with

1BUF · 4th & 3Joe Brady chose Field goal at opp 5, Wk 5 Q1 0:13, up 3. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: good.−0.83 EP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA163 plays, one strand6 lead changes · 18 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewScott Novak24 accepted flags in this game · 18.2 a game this season (one of the busiest crews)Market vs SnapsLine: LAR by 3.5 · Snaps: LAR by 0.9Bills covered; the snaps agree

37@34

Week 5Changes the winner

If the 45-yard kick had missed

Rams after the play0%what really happened

Q5 2:00 16-T.Bass 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

LAR ▲BUF ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4OT

The five biggest swings

+40%OT 4:16 · for BUF H.Mevis 48 yard field goal is BLOCKED (G.Rousseau), Center-J.Cardona, Holder-E.Evans.
+34%OT 8:48 · for BUF(Shotgun) J.Allen pass short middle to K.Shakir to LA 22 for 57 yards (K.Kinchens).
+23%OT 8:00 · for LARJ.Cook up the middle to LA 22 for no gain (N.Landman). FUMBLES (N.Landman), RECOVERED by LA-A.Donald at LA 20.
+23%OT 6:30 · for LAR(Shotgun) M.Stafford pass deep right to P.Nacua to BUF 35 for 21 yards (C.Bishop; T.Bernard).
+19%OT 7:15 · for LARM.Stafford pass deep middle to D.Allen to LA 44 for 21 yards (C.Gardner-Johnson) [D.Walker].

Every drive, on the field

LAR attacks →← BUF attacks

Q1 15:00FG4p · -5y · 1:37
Q1 13:23MISS14p · 38y · 7:48
Q1 5:35FG10p · 55y · 5:25
Q1 0:10TD14p · 71y · 7:10
Q2 8:00TD5p · 69y · 2:51
Q2 5:09PUNT7p · 21y · 3:17
Q2 1:52INT3p · 4y · 1:32
Q2 0:20HALF3p · 8y · 0:20
Q3 15:00TD9p · 60y · 4:49
Q3 10:11PUNT4p · 9y · 1:54
Q3 8:17PUNT3p · 6y · 1:33
Q3 6:44TD9p · 61y · 3:59
Q3 2:45TD6p · 83y · 3:29
Q4 14:16TD5p · 80y · 2:48
Q4 11:28TD8p · 71y · 4:14
Q4 7:14TD11p · 71y · 5:35
Q4 1:39TD8p · 63y · 1:34
Q4 0:05HALF0p · 0y · 0:05
Q5 10:00FUM4p · 51y · 2:06
Q5 7:54MISS8p · 50y · 3:43
Q5 4:11FG5p · 35y · 2:16

Bills10 drives7scoring drives (4 TD)70%drives ending in pointsOWN 34avg starting field position0three-and-outs2turnovers incl. downs

Rams9 drives5scoring drives (5 TD)56%drives ending in pointsOWN 27avg starting field position1three-and-outs0turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
13:23Field goalT.Bass 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-R.Ferguson, Holder-T.Doman.3–0
Q1
0:10Field goalT.Bass 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-R.Ferguson, Holder-T.Doman.6–0
Q2
8:00Touchdown(Shotgun) M.Stafford pass short left to D.Adams for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. H.Mevis extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Cardona, Holder-E.Evans.6–7
Q2
5:09TouchdownJ.Cook right tackle for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Ferguson, Holder-T.Doman.13–7
Q3
10:11TouchdownB.Corum right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. H.Mevis extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Cardona, Holder-E.Evans.13–14
Q3
2:45Touchdown(Shotgun) J.Allen pass short right to K.Coleman for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA-J.Watson was injured during the play. T.Bass extra point is No Good, Wide Right, Center-R.Ferguson, Holder-T.Doman.19–14
Q4
14:16TouchdownM.Stafford pass short left to P.Nacua for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. M.Stafford is sacked. ATTEMPT FAILS.19–20
Q4
11:28TouchdownJ.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. J.Allen pass to D.Kincaid is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.27–20
Q4
7:14Touchdown(Shotgun) M.Stafford pass short middle to D.Adams for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. H.Mevis extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Cardona, Holder-E.Evans.27–27
Q4
1:39TouchdownJ.Cook up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Ferguson, Holder-T.Doman.34–27
Q4
0:05Touchdown(No Huddle, Shotgun) K.Williams left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. H.Mevis extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Cardona, Holder-E.Evans.34–34
OT
1:55Field goal T.Bass 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-R.Ferguson, Holder-T.Doman.37–34

Team stats

BUFvsLAR

436Total yards454

202Passing yards377

234Rushing yards77

7.6Yards per play5.8

25First downs33

2-7 · 29%Third down7-14 · 50%

0-0Fourth down2-2

4-5Red zone TDs5-5

12/19Comp / att40/54

6.3Yards per carry3.3

2Turnovers0

1 (−8 yds)Sacks allowed1 (−6 yds)

13 for 112Penalties11 for 84

30:08Possession37:57

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play+0.291+0.231

Dropback EPA+0.692+0.330

Rush EPA-0.110-0.012

Success rate55%48%

Explosive plays137

Plays5879

Who moved the needle

J.AllenDropbacks: 29+20.1

M.StaffordDropbacks: 56+18.5

T.HigbeeTargets: 6+8.0

K.ShakirTargets: 3+5.9

T.JohnsonTargets: 4+4.7

P.NacuaTargets: 24+4.5

Cost their side the most

J.CookCarries: 25-3.2

D.KnoxTargets: 3-1.7

K.WilliamsTargets: 8-1.4

Box score

Buffalo Bills

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Josh AllenQB	12/19	210	11.1	1	1	1-8	94.4	96.4

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Josh AllenQB	10	121	12.1	1	22
James Cook IIIRB	25	111	4.4	2	18
Ray DavisRB	2	2	1.0	0	4

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Khalil ShakirWR	3	3	80	26.7	0	57
Ty JohnsonRB	4	4	72	18.0	0	40
Ray DavisRB	1	1	31	31.0	0	31
Keon ColemanWR	1	2	7	7.0	1	7
James Cook IIIRB	1	1	7	7.0	0	7
Dalton KincaidTE	1	2	7	7.0	0	7
Dawson KnoxTE	1	3	6	6.0	0	6
Skyler BellWR	0	2	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Cole BishopS	11	6	0	0	0
Christian BenfordCB	10	7	0	0	0
Dorian WilliamsLB	9	1	0	0	0
C.J. Gardner-Johnson	7	4	0	0	0
Davison IgbinosunCB	7	4	0	1	0
Terrel BernardLB	7	3	0	0	1
Damar HamlinS	5	3	0	0	0
T.J. SandersDT	5	2	0	0	0
Deone WalkerDT	4	2	1	0	1
TJ ParkerLB	3	2	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Tyler BassPK	3/3	100.0	49	2/3	11

Los Angeles Rams

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Matthew StaffordQB	40/54	383	7.1	3	0	1-6	80.0	111.9

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Kyren WilliamsRB	16	49	3.1	1	12
Blake CorumRB	5	19	3.8	1	10
Puka NacuaWR	2	9	4.5	0	9

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Puka NacuaWR	17	24	138	8.1	1	21
Tyler HigbeeTE	5	6	83	16.6	0	30
Blake CorumRB	3	4	53	17.7	0	34
Davante AdamsWR	5	7	51	10.2	2	15
Kyren WilliamsRB	6	8	27	4.5	0	9
Davis AllenTE	2	2	24	12.0	0	21
Tutu AtwellWR	1	1	4	4.0	0	4
Colby ParkinsonTE	1	2	3	3.0	0	3

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	QB HTS
Nate LandmanLB	13	8	0	1	0
Kam CurlS	8	4	0	1	0
Kamren KinchensS	6	6	0	0	0
Quentin LakeS	6	4	0	0	0
Omar SpeightsLB	4	3	0	0	0
Trent McDuffieCB	3	2	0	1	0
Byron YoungLB	3	2	0	1	0
Josaiah StewartLB	3	1	1	1	1
Kobie TurnerDE	3	0	0	0	0
Desjuan JohnsonDE	3	0	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Harrison Mevis	0/2	0.0	0	4/4	4

Before kickoff · Regular season through week 4 · rank out of 32

Where it was expected to be decided

1Rams big-play offense vs Bills defense against big plays
The Rams' big-play offense ranks 11th in explosive-play rate (10.1%, 268 plays) against a Bills defense against big plays ranked 29th (11.4% allowed, 271 plays faced).
11thLAR offense18 spots apart29thBUF defense
2Bills takeaway defense vs Rams ball security
The Bills' takeaway defense ranks 11th in turnovers per game (1.3 takeaways a game, 4 games) and faces a Rams ball security ranked 26th (2.0 giveaways a game, 4 games).
26thLAR offense15 spots apart11thBUF defenseSmall sample, read with care Why sample size matters

When the Bills have the ballNo big edge

BUF dropback offenseEPA per dropbackLAR pass defense

4th+0.27138 dropbacks

-0.13 allowed139 dropbacks faced2nd

BUF run gameEPA per rushLAR run defense

4th+0.0897 rushes

-0.11 allowed100 rushes faced10th

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Rams have the ballEdge LAR · +11 ranks

LAR dropback offenseEPA per dropbackBUF pass defense

16th+0.06173 dropbacks

LAR +11

+0.19 allowed167 dropbacks faced27th

LAR run gameEPA per rushBUF run defense

11th-0.0395 rushes

LAR +10

-0.03 allowed104 rushes faced21st

Third downEdge LAR · +11 ranks

BUF third-down offensethird-down conversion rateLAR third-down defense

2nd54.5%44 third downs

33.3% allowed51 third downs faced5th

LAR third-down offensethird-down conversion rateBUF third-down defense

8th46.0%50 third downs

LAR +11

41.5% allowed53 third downs faced19th

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneNo big edge

BUF red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateLAR red-zone defense

11th65%17 trips

58% allowed12 trips faced13th

LAR red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateBUF red-zone defense

19th53%15 trips

69% allowed16 trips faced23rd

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsEdge LAR · +18 ranks

BUF big-play offenseexplosive-play rateLAR defense against big plays

1st15.3%235 plays

5.4% allowed239 plays faced2nd

LAR big-play offenseexplosive-play rateBUF defense against big plays

11th10.1%268 plays

LAR +18

11.4% allowed271 plays faced29th

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksEdge LAR · +11 ranks

BUF pass protectionsack rateLAR pass rush

19th6.5% sacked138 dropbacks

5.0% of dropbacks139 dropbacks faced21st

LAR pass protectionsack rateBUF pass rush

5th3.5% sacked173 dropbacks

LAR +11

6.0% of dropbacks167 dropbacks faced16th

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversEdge BUF · +15 ranks

BUF ball securityturnovers per gameLAR takeaway defense

25th1.8 giveaways a game4 games

0.8 takeaways a game4 games22nd

LAR ball securityturnovers per gameBUF takeaway defense

26th2.0 giveaways a game4 games

BUF +15

1.3 takeaways a game4 games11th

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

Sample: BUF 4 games, 235 offensive and 271 defensive plays · LAR 4 games, 268 offensive and 239 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

DJ MooreWR→ Skyler Bell

Alec AndersonLG→ Tylan Grable

Ed OliverRDE→ DeWayne Carter

Dee AlfordNB→ Maxwell Hairston

Konata MumpfieldWR→ Davante Adams

Ty HamiltonNT→ Poona Ford

Omar SpeightsRILB→ Josaiah Stewart

Myles GarrettSLB→ Kobie Turner

AwayBills2 questionable · 4 changes