Pigskin Nightly
More
GamedayScores & liveEvery game, live field, drive chartVideoHighlights for every gameStartersProjected, last game, confirmedInjury reportWho is out this weekTravel & restMiles, time zones, short weeks
AnalyticsThe VerdictWho deserved to win, graded weeklyEPA mapEvery offense and defenseWith / WithoutTeam splits when a starter sitsMilestone WatchCareer marks within reachCompare playersSide by side, every numberDFS researchDefense vs position, usage, totalsFree widgetsLive scores and stats for your siteGlossaryWhat every number means
The LabAll Lab toolsOriginal tools, built from every snapDeserved StandingsThe table the snaps would have builtSliding DoorsThe play that could have flipped itClock IQEvery staff against the clockRef Crew ReportEvery officiating crew, in numbersMarket vs SnapsWhere the line and the tape disagreeScheme DNAEvery playbook's fingerprintGame DNAEvery game drawn as one strandPaid vs PlayedEvery contract against the fieldLoudest StadiumsCrowd noise, measured since 1999Turf vs GrassInjuries by playing surfaceWeather LedgerReal weather, every game since 2000Line MovementOpening vs closing, every game since 2023
ClubsStandingsDivisions and playoff seedsPlayoff odds10,000 simulated seasonsStrength of scheduleThe road left for all 32All 32 teamsHubs, depth charts, snapsRostersEvery player, every teamNewsroomThe 32 club desksHow we writeOur editorial standards
Week 10
Latest
Pittsburgh SteelersAsked and Answered: Nov. 10New York GiantsGiants Now: Michael Strahan offers high praise of Arvell ReesePhiladelphia EaglesAAA Official Review: What did the Eagles, Joe Milton learn from the QB's first start?Buffalo Bills'There's no panic' | The Bills stay strong through early struggles and injuries in MNF win over the Minnesota VikingsESPNVikings left at QB crossroads after Carson Wentz's poor MNF showing vs. BillsBroncos DeskBroncos are 7-2, but the snaps say 4.1 wins and the 11th seed in the conference5 h agoInjuryByron Murphy Jr.: Active → Cleared5 h agoMinnesota VikingsVikings Defense Limits Bills Below AveragesMinnesota VikingsO'Connell: Vikings Have to 'Improve Offensively at Rapid Pace'InjuryBlake Cashman: Active → Cleared6 h agoVikings DeskVikings go 0-for-8 on third down and never get a receiver open in a 23-6 loss to Bills6 h agoInjuryWill Reichard: Active → Cleared6 h agoBills DeskJosh Allen's picks and sacks didn't matter: Bills force three turnovers in Minneapolis6 h agoPro Football RumorsSeahawks Interested In Adding WR DepthInjuryGreg Dortch: Active → Cleared6 h agoESPNJosh Allen and the Bills move to 7-1 with a 23-6 win over the sputtering VikingsBuffalo BillsBills 23 , Vikings 6 | Final Score, recap + highlightsMinnesota VikingsVikings vs. Bills Game Observations: Offense's Misfires & Turnovers Add UpInjuryCarl Granderson: Active → Cleared7 h agoESPNJosh Allen, Bills outlast Vikings 23-6 on MNFESPNJosh Allen leads Bills to win over tough Vikings' defenseESPNCarson Beck next man up for Cardinals
WSH ThuNYG NE SunDET BUF SunNYJ CAR SunNO HOU SunCLE JAX SunTEN KC SunATL MIA SunIND MIN SunGB LAR SunARI SEA SunLV SF SunDAL PIT SunCIN LAC MonBAL
The Verdict2026 · NFC North · through Week 9

Packers logoGreen Bay PackersThe Verdict

Packers are 6-3; the play says 5.5 wins. Record and play agree, within a game. They are 3-1 in one-score games. On fourth down, Matt LaFleur kicked away 5 of 15 situations our model called a go.

This week's issueLeague Luck IndexHow we judge
Luck wins · 8th of 32+0.56-3 real · 5.5 deserved · 5.2 Pythagorean
Luck points · 6th of 32+9.1fumble bounces +9.8 · opponents' kicks −0.7
Chicken Index · 25th of 3233%Matt LaFleur · 4.6 expected points lost on 42 graded calls
Flags net · 22nd of 32−18.8 WP74 flags for 605 yards against · 55 drawn

Every game, judged

Lucky 1× · latest first

Bottom line1 of these 9 games went against the play. The biggest: GB @ NYJ, where the Jets lost with a 85% deserved win probability. 1 more were coin flips.

How to read this chart
Each card is one game.
Under each team: its success rate (share of snaps that kept the offense on schedule) and EPA per play (expected points added: how much each snap improved its scoring chances; 0 is average).
The split bar is the deserved win probability:
how often each team would win if the game were replayed from the same snaps. Away team on the left, home team on the right, 50-50 at the tick in the middle. The longer side played better.
The stamp is the ruling.
Earned: the winner also played better. Coin flip: the winner deserved it less than 60% of the time. Robbed: the loser deserved to win at least 70% of the time (when this team won one of those, it reads Lucky).
Luck pts
(full cards): real margin minus deserved margin; plus means the scoreboard was kinder than the play.
Week 9EarnedGame file →
Packers logoPackers46% success · +0.26 EPA/play
4527
Patriots logoPatriots44% success · −0.10 EPA/play

Packers earned it: the snaps said Packers by 17.0, a deserved win probability of more than 99%.

Deserved marginGB by 17.0
Real marginGB by 18
Luck pts GB+1.9
Luck pts NE−3.6

The swingQ1 14:32 · NE · −15 pts of win probability. 10-D.Maye pass deep left intended for 13-M.Hollins INTERCEPTED by 29-X.McKinney at 50. 29-X.McKinney pushed ob at NE 14 for 36 yards (65-M.Pryor).

Week 8EarnedGame file →
Panthers logoPanthers34% success · −0.19 EPA/play
1927
Packers logoPackers48% success · +0.05 EPA/play

Packers earned it: the snaps said Packers by 13.7, a deserved win probability of 99%.

Deserved marginGB by 13.7
Real marginGB by 8
Luck pts CAR−1.1
Luck pts GB+0.8

The swingQ2 9:19 · GB · +13 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 9-C.Watson to CAR 26 for 53 yards (24-W.Lee). GB-9-C.Watson was injured during the play. CAR-24-W.Lee was injured during the play. Penalty on CAR-24-W.Lee, Defensive Pass…

The luck sheet

All 32 →
One-score games3-1Decided by 8 points or fewer. Over a season teams win about half of these.
Fumble bounces+9.8 ptsKept 7 of 11 own fumbles; won 6 of 10 by opponents. League offenses keep 53%.
Opponents' kicks−0.7 ptsOpponents made 8 of 9 field goals against an expected 8.1, and 19 of 19 extra points.
Own kicking−7.4 ptsMade 14 of 19 field goals against 16.5 expected by distance. Skill, not luck: not in the luck total.
Net EPA per play+0.0968th of 32 · offense minus defense, passes and runs
Our picks on them3-5Our pregame model in Packers games. All receipts

Coach on trial

Matt LaFleur · 42 graded fourth downs · went for it 16×

Bottom lineThe calls against the model in this list cost 4.3 expected points in total.

How to read this chart
Each row is one fourth down:
distance, spot, score, what the coach chose and what our model would have done (a clear call, a lean or a toss-up).
The number on the right
is what the choice cost in expected points (EP, what a possession is worth on average from that spot): −1.00 means about a point thrown away. ✓ = the coach made the model's call.
The result
is what happened next; the grade judges the decision, not the outcome.
  1. 1GB · 4th & 2Matt LaFleur chose Punt at opp 44, Wk 4 Q1 10:27, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.40 EP
  2. 2GB · 4th & 3Matt LaFleur chose Punt at opp 49, Wk 1 Q2 8:28, up 9. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−0.82 EP
  3. 3GB · 4th & 2Matt LaFleur chose Punt at own 28, Wk 5 Q2 11:13, up 14. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.62 EP
  4. 4GB · 4th & 5Matt LaFleur chose Go for it at opp 33, Wk 7 Q1 12:35, tied. Model: Field goal (lean). Result: converted.−0.62 EP
  5. 5GB · 4th & 3Matt LaFleur chose Punt at own 40, Wk 8 Q1 10:22, down 3. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.47 EP
  6. 6GB · 4th & 3Matt LaFleur chose Punt at own 34, Wk 2 Q3 0:59, down 7. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.34 EP

Brave and right

  1. 1GB · 4th & 1Matt LaFleur chose Go for it at opp 7, Wk 3 Q3 10:02, down 10. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: stopped.✓ EP
  2. 2GB · 4th & 1Matt LaFleur chose Go for it at opp 9, Wk 4 Q1 1:17, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
  3. 3GB · 4th & 2Matt LaFleur chose Go for it at opp 49, Wk 7 Q1 3:39, down 7. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
  4. 4GB · 4th & 1Matt LaFleur chose Go for it at opp 17, Wk 1 Q4 13:17, up 5. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: stopped.✓ EP
How to read this chart
Every fourth down this season.
Go EP, Punt EP and FG EP are the expected points of each option from that spot: the highest is the model's call.
Cost:
how many expected points the coach's choice gave up against the best one; ✓ = he made the best call. Late-game and lopsided situations are listed but not graded.
SituationWkChoiceModelGo EPPunt EPFG EPCostResult
4th & 14 · opp 23 · Q2 13:409Field goalField goal0.95–2.52✓good
4th & 11 · own 22 · Q2 11:149PuntPunt-2.43-1.49–✓punted
4th & 6 · 50 · Q2 7:159PuntGo for it (toss-up)-0.15-0.32–−0.17punted
4th & 3 · opp 43 · Q2 1:529Go for itnot graded0.90-0.190.20stopped
4th & 6 · opp 33 · Q3 5:179Field goalnot graded0.92-0.111.70good
4th & 1 · opp 20 · Q4 11:559Field goalnot graded3.39–2.65good
4th & 7 · own 15 · Q4 7:089Puntnot graded-2.54-1.93–punted
4th & 11 · own 38 · Q4 1:189Puntnot graded-1.38-0.71–punted
4th & 3 · own 40 · Q1 10:228PuntGo for it-0.16-0.63–−0.47punted
4th & 10 · 50 · Q2 0:398Puntnot graded-0.56-0.32–punted
4th & 2 · own 23 · Q4 10:488Puntnot graded-0.86-1.43–punted
4th & 25 · own 12 · Q4 4:458Puntnot graded-3.67-2.14–punted
4th & 12 · opp 37 · Q4 0:308Puntnot graded0.13-0.121.18punted
4th & 5 · opp 33 · Q1 12:357Go for itField goal1.08-0.111.70−0.62converted
4th & 8 · opp 8 · Q1 10:267Field goalField goal1.59–2.91✓missed
4th & 2 · opp 49 · Q1 3:397Go for itGo for it0.88-0.30–✓converted
4th & 14 · own 31 · Q2 11:197PuntPunt-2.00-1.01–✓punted
4th & 3 · opp 41 · Q2 5:567Go for itGo for it1.02-0.160.55✓converted
4th & 4 · opp 7 · Q2 4:207Go for itGo for it3.35–2.92✓stopped
4th & 8 · own 26 · Q3 5:337PuntPunt-1.91-1.27–✓punted
4th & 9 · opp 25 · Q4 7:147Field goalField goal1.12–2.40✓good
4th & 5 · opp 17 · Q4 3:257Field goalnot graded2.17–2.75blocked
4th & 7 · opp 7 · Q2 6:016Field goalField goal1.76–2.92✓good
4th & 17 · own 17 · Q3 14:016Puntnot graded-3.08-1.80–punted
4th & 3 · opp 44 · Q3 6:526Go for itGo for it0.83-0.200.02✓converted
4th & 6 · opp 26 · Q3 5:066Field goalField goal1.38–2.34✓good
4th & 12 · own 4 · Q3 1:236Puntnot graded-3.80-2.77–punted
4th & 8 · opp 11 · Q4 10:106Field goalnot graded2.37–2.87good
4th & 6 · own 29 · Q4 3:116Puntnot graded-1.47-1.11–punted
4th & 1 · opp 24 · Q1 2:375Go for itGo for it3.10–2.46✓converted
4th & 2 · own 28 · Q2 11:135PuntGo for it-0.54-1.16–−0.62punted
4th & 6 · own 25 · Q2 1:365Puntnot graded-1.73-1.32–punted
4th & 11 · own 46 · Q3 6:225Puntnot graded-0.88-0.43–punted
4th & 11 · opp 17 · Q3 2:025Field goalnot graded1.76–2.75good
4th & 3 · opp 24 · Q4 9:505Field goalnot graded2.14–2.46missed
4th & 6 · opp 29 · Q4 5:255Field goalnot graded1.18–2.11missed
4th & 4 · own 47 · Q4 3:185Puntnot graded0.02-0.40–punted
4th & 2 · opp 44 · Q1 10:274PuntGo for it1.20-0.200.02−1.40punted
4th & 1 · opp 28 · Q1 3:454Go for itGo for it2.82–2.19✓converted
4th & 1 · opp 9 · Q1 1:174Go for itGo for it4.24–2.90✓converted
4th & 2 · opp 2 · Q2 12:584Go for itGo for it3.29–2.95✓touchdown
4th & 16 · own 18 · Q2 10:384PuntPunt-2.97-1.73–✓punted
4th & 5 · own 31 · Q2 3:224PuntPunt (toss-up)-1.18-1.01–✓punted
4th & 12 · own 36 · Q3 6:304PuntPunt-1.57-0.79–✓punted
4th & 9 · own 46 · Q1 12:453PuntPunt-0.73-0.43–✓punted
4th & 4 · own 37 · Q2 15:003PuntGo for it (toss-up)-0.61-0.75–−0.14punted
4th & 9 · own 12 · Q2 9:423PuntPunt-2.97-2.14–✓punted
4th & 5 · opp 28 · Q2 3:473Field goalField goal1.41–2.19✓blocked
4th & 2 · own 41 · Q2 0:383Puntnot graded0.27-0.59–punted
4th & 1 · opp 7 · Q3 10:023Go for itGo for it4.94–2.92✓stopped
4th & 16 · own 47 · Q3 1:023Puntnot graded-1.06-0.40–punted
4th & 7 · opp 39 · Q4 9:293Go for itnot graded0.41-0.140.88converted
4th & 6 · opp 40 · Q4 1:563Go for itnot graded0.48-0.150.71converted
4th & 7 · own 32 · Q1 13:342PuntPunt-1.41-0.96–✓punted
4th & 15 · own 3 · Q1 5:522PuntPunt-4.05-2.85–✓punted
4th & 6 · own 24 · Q1 1:512PuntPunt-1.80-1.38–✓punted
4th & 13 · own 43 · Q2 4:092PuntPunt-1.18-0.52–✓punted
4th & 9 · own 34 · Q3 7:362PuntPunt-1.48-0.87–✓punted
4th & 3 · own 34 · Q3 0:592PuntGo for it-0.53-0.87–−0.34punted
4th & 7 · opp 16 · Q4 3:032Field goalnot graded1.94–2.78good
4th & 10 · 50 · Q4 0:022Go for itnot graded-0.56-0.32–stopped
4th & 12 · opp 41 · Q1 12:161Field goalField goal-0.12-0.160.55✓good
4th & 8 · opp 25 · Q2 13:561Field goalField goal1.21–2.40✓good
4th & 3 · opp 49 · Q2 8:281PuntGo for it0.52-0.30–−0.82punted
4th & 25 · own 49 · Q2 5:281PuntPunt-1.17-0.35–✓punted
4th & 10 · own 38 · Q3 12:091PuntPunt-1.31-0.71–✓punted
4th & 8 · opp 8 · Q3 5:121Field goalField goal1.59–2.91✓good
4th & 1 · opp 17 · Q4 13:171Go for itGo for it3.61–2.75✓stopped
4th & 2 · opp 12 · Q4 1:311Go for itnot graded3.39–2.86stopped

Flags against

Ledger →

Bottom lineThe biggest here: Roughing the Passer on GB in Week 7, worth +14 points of win probability to DET.

How to read this chart
Each row is one flag:
the team in red was penalized, the team in green was helped.
The number on the right
is how much that flag moved the helped team's chance of winning, in points (100 = a whole game). When the play still counted, the play is included, so treat it as an upper bound.
Touchdown erased
marks a score wiped off by the flag, with the expected points it cost.
  1. 1Roughing the PasserGB → helped DET · Wk 7 Q4 2:45 · (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 87-S.LaPorta to DET 45 for 18 yards (29-X.McKinney; 58-I.McDuffie). PENALTY on…+14.1 WP
  2. 2Illegal ContactGB → helped MIN · Wk 1 Q4 11:03 · (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz sacked at MIN 24 for -10 yards (sack split by 56-E.Cooper and 95-D.Wyatt). PENALTY on GB-7-J.Bullard,…+8.2 WP
  3. 3Offensive HoldingGB → helped DET · Wk 7 Q4 9:14 · (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep right to 32-M.Lloyd. PENALTY on GB-71-A.Belton, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced…+7.3 WP
  4. 4Defensive HoldingGB → helped MIN · Wk 1 Q4 6:49 · (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle intended for 3-J.Addison INTERCEPTED by 33-E.Williams [98-J.Hargrave] at GB -4.…+6.9 WP
  5. 5Unnecessary RoughnessGB → helped DET · Wk 7 Q3 7:46 · (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to GB 23 for 4 yards (58-I.McDuffie). PENALTY on GB-95-D.Wyatt,…+6.6 WP
FoulFlagsYardsWP given
Roughing the Passer910636.2
Offensive Holding1413127.2
Unnecessary Roughness55926.7
False Start136424.1
Neutral Zone Infraction52510.9
Intentional Grounding22610.6
Defensive Holding289.9
Illegal Contact3159.0

Flags drawn

  1. 1Unnecessary RoughnessNYJ → helped GB · Wk 2 OT 6:17 · (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 30-C.Brooks pushed ob at NYJ 37 for 15 yards (2-J.Brownlee). PENALTY on…+23.9 WP
  2. 2Defensive Pass InterferenceCAR → helped GB · Wk 8 Q1 8:14 · (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep middle to 0-M.Golden. PENALTY on CAR-24-W.Lee, Defensive Pass Interference, 17 yards,…+11.4 WP
  3. 3Defensive Pass InterferenceNYJ → helped GB · Wk 2 Q4 9:25 · (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep right to 0-M.Golden. PENALTY on NYJ-1-A.Thomas, Defensive Pass Interference, 38 yards,…+9.3 WP
  4. 4Defensive Pass InterferenceATL → helped GB · Wk 3 Q2 4:44 · (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep left to 0-M.Golden. PENALTY on ATL-21-M.Hughes, Defensive Pass Interference, 34 yards,…+8.0 WP
  5. 5Illegal Use of HandsNYJ → helped GB · Wk 2 Q3 8:44 · (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 85-T.Kraft to GB 37 for 9 yards (44-J.Sherwood; 2-J.Brownlee) [31-D.Bailey].…+7.9 WP

Garbage Time Tax

24.6% of the offense's yards came with the game decided · 7th most of 32

Bottom lineMatthew Golden: 272 of 788 yards (35%) came with the game decided.

How to read this chart
One bar per player,
as long as his season yards (passing, rushing or receiving).
Blue = yards with the game still alive.
Striped amber = garbage time: yards gained when the offense's chance of winning was already under 10% or over 90%, so the game was basically decided.
The percentage
is the garbage-time share of his yards (amber from 30% up).
Jordan LoveGB · passing · 2,618 yds25%
Christian WatsonGB · receiving · 879 yds20%
Matthew GoldenGB · receiving · 788 yds35%
Tucker KraftGB · receiving · 351 yds27%

Our picks on the Packers

Receipts →
  1. 1Week 9We gave the Packers 45% at patriots. 45-27 final, a win. (rebuilt)Wrong
  2. 2Week 8We gave the Packers 56% at home against panthers. 19-27 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
  3. 3Week 7We gave the Packers 45% at lions. 17-20 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
  4. 4Week 6We gave the Packers 57% at home against cowboys. 13-23 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
  5. 5Week 5We gave the Packers 24% at home against bears. 7-31 final, a win. (rebuilt)Wrong
  6. 6Week 4We gave the Packers 38% at buccaneers. 17-14 final, a win. (rebuilt)Wrong
  7. 7Week 3We gave the Packers 68% at home against falcons. 35-14 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Wrong
  8. 8Week 2We gave the Packers 26% at jets. 20-17 final, a win. (rebuilt)Wrong
Cite thisPigskin Nightly, "Green Bay Packers verdict, 2026", https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/packers/verdict (2026)CC BY 4.0Data licenseCSVJSONEmbedHow it works

Every number on this page is computed from the 2026 nflverse play-by-play by our own models. Nothing is hand-picked.