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The Verdict2026 · AFC East · through Week 9

Patriots logoNew England PatriotsThe Verdict

Patriots are 5-4; the play says 4.6 wins. Record and play agree, within a game. They are 3-2 in one-score games. On fourth down, Mike Vrabel kicked away 4 of 11 situations our model called a go.

This week's issueLeague Luck IndexHow we judge
Luck wins · 9th of 32+0.45-4 real · 4.6 deserved · 4.6 Pythagorean
Luck points · 18th of 32−3.3fumble bounces −4.7 · opponents' kicks +1.4
Chicken Index · 23rd of 3236%Mike Vrabel · 3.9 expected points lost on 37 graded calls
Flags net · 17th of 32−7.9 WP66 flags for 500 yards against · 58 drawn

Every game, judged

latest first

Bottom lineNone of these 9 games went against the play.

How to read this chart
Each card is one game.
Under each team: its success rate (share of snaps that kept the offense on schedule) and EPA per play (expected points added: how much each snap improved its scoring chances; 0 is average).
The split bar is the deserved win probability:
how often each team would win if the game were replayed from the same snaps. Away team on the left, home team on the right, 50-50 at the tick in the middle. The longer side played better.
The stamp is the ruling.
Earned: the winner also played better. Coin flip: the winner deserved it less than 60% of the time. Robbed: the loser deserved to win at least 70% of the time (when this team won one of those, it reads Lucky).
Luck pts
(full cards): real margin minus deserved margin; plus means the scoreboard was kinder than the play.
Week 9EarnedGame file →
Packers logoPackers46% success · +0.26 EPA/play
4527
Patriots logoPatriots44% success · −0.10 EPA/play

Packers earned it: the snaps said Packers by 17.0, a deserved win probability of more than 99%.

Deserved marginGB by 17.0
Real marginGB by 18
Luck pts GB+1.9
Luck pts NE−3.6

The swingQ1 14:32 · NE · −15 pts of win probability. 10-D.Maye pass deep left intended for 13-M.Hollins INTERCEPTED by 29-X.McKinney at 50. 29-X.McKinney pushed ob at NE 14 for 36 yards (65-M.Pryor).

Week 8EarnedGame file →
Patriots logoPatriots50% success · +0.04 EPA/play
2419
Dolphins logoDolphins41% success · −0.06 EPA/play

Patriots earned it: the snaps said Patriots by 4.0, a deserved win probability of 77%.

Deserved marginNE by 4.0
Real marginNE by 5
Luck pts NE+3.3
Luck pts MIA+0.7

The swingQ1 5:59 · NE · −17 pts of win probability. 10-D.Maye pass short left to 86-E.Chism to NE 18 for 4 yards (10-J.Rodriguez; 19-K.Louis). FUMBLES (10-J.Rodriguez), RECOVERED by MIA-8-J.Brents at NE 19.

The luck sheet

All 32 →
One-score games3-2Decided by 8 points or fewer. Over a season teams win about half of these.
Fumble bounces−4.7 ptsKept 6 of 14 own fumbles; won 3 of 6 by opponents. League offenses keep 53%.
Opponents' kicks+1.4 ptsOpponents made 18 of 23 field goals against an expected 18.8, and 19 of 19 extra points.
Own kicking−5.1 ptsMade 10 of 13 field goals against 11.7 expected by distance. Skill, not luck: not in the luck total.
Net EPA per play−0.00718th of 32 · offense minus defense, passes and runs
Our picks on them4-4Our pregame model in Patriots games. All receipts

Coach on trial

Mike Vrabel · 37 graded fourth downs · went for it 13×

Bottom lineThe calls against the model in this list cost 3.6 expected points in total.

How to read this chart
Each row is one fourth down:
distance, spot, score, what the coach chose and what our model would have done (a clear call, a lean or a toss-up).
The number on the right
is what the choice cost in expected points (EP, what a possession is worth on average from that spot): −1.00 means about a point thrown away. ✓ = the coach made the model's call.
The result
is what happened next; the grade judges the decision, not the outcome.
  1. 1NE · 4th & 2Mike Vrabel chose Punt at own 45, Wk 4 Q3 0:56, up 4. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−0.97 EP
  2. 2NE · 4th & 16Mike Vrabel chose Punt at opp 40, Wk 5 Q2 11:00, up 7. Model: Field goal (clear call). Result: punted.−0.86 EP
  3. 3NE · 4th & 2Mike Vrabel chose Punt at own 40, Wk 1 Q1 1:28, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−0.83 EP
  4. 4NE · 4th & 3Mike Vrabel chose Punt at own 34, Wk 6 Q1 6:48, down 3. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.34 EP
  5. 5NE · 4th & 3Mike Vrabel chose Go for it at opp 29, Wk 4 Q1 7:40, tied. Model: Field goal (lean). Result: converted.−0.31 EP
  6. 6NE · 4th & 4Mike Vrabel chose Punt at own 42, Wk 4 Q4 6:45, up 1. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.26 EP

Brave and right

  1. 1NE · 4th & 1Mike Vrabel chose Go for it at own 48, Wk 6 Q2 5:15, up 4. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
  2. 2NE · 4th & 1Mike Vrabel chose Go for it at own 47, Wk 3 Q3 13:23, down 11. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
  3. 3NE · 4th & 2Mike Vrabel chose Go for it at opp 48, Wk 5 Q1 4:35, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
  4. 4NE · 4th & 3Mike Vrabel chose Go for it at opp 8, Wk 5 Q1 2:34, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
How to read this chart
Every fourth down this season.
Go EP, Punt EP and FG EP are the expected points of each option from that spot: the highest is the model's call.
Cost:
how many expected points the coach's choice gave up against the best one; ✓ = he made the best call. Late-game and lopsided situations are listed but not graded.
SituationWkChoiceModelGo EPPunt EPFG EPCostResult
4th & 16 · own 28 · Q1 11:589PuntPunt-2.28-1.16–✓punted
4th & 16 · own 48 · Q1 5:249PuntPunt-1.00-0.37–✓punted
4th & 10 · opp 46 · Q2 0:599Puntnot graded-0.31-0.24-0.34punted
4th & 3 · own 38 · Q3 8:579Puntnot graded-0.28-0.71–punted
4th & 20 · opp 47 · Q4 9:249Puntnot graded-0.81-0.26-0.53punted
4th & 5 · opp 16 · Q1 9:148Field goalField goal2.24–2.78✓good
4th & 18 · own 47 · Q1 1:308PuntPunt-1.13-0.40–✓punted
4th & 3 · opp 41 · Q2 5:048Go for itGo for it1.02-0.160.55✓converted
4th & 3 · opp 22 · Q2 2:248Field goalField goal2.28–2.57✓missed
4th & 11 · own 34 · Q3 13:128PuntPunt-1.64-0.87–✓punted
4th & 2 · opp 23 · Q3 4:508Go for itGo for it (toss-up)2.58–2.52✓converted
4th & 5 · 50 · Q4 4:158Puntnot graded0.01-0.32–punted
4th & 5 · opp 45 · Q1 11:357Go for itGo for it0.32-0.22-0.16✓stopped
4th & 4 · own 33 · Q1 8:247PuntGo for it (toss-up)-0.86-0.92–−0.06punted
4th & 9 · own 35 · Q1 3:487PuntPunt-1.42-0.83–✓punted
4th & 7 · own 43 · Q4 15:007PuntPunt (toss-up)-0.71-0.52–✓punted
4th & 7 · own 46 · Q4 6:287PuntPunt (toss-up)-0.53-0.43–✓punted
4th & 3 · own 34 · Q1 6:486PuntGo for it-0.53-0.87–−0.34punted
4th & 6 · own 43 · Q2 11:456PuntPunt (toss-up)-0.59-0.52–✓punted
4th & 1 · own 48 · Q2 5:156Go for itGo for it1.27-0.37–✓converted
4th & 4 · opp 14 · Q2 1:496Field goalnot graded2.59–2.82good
4th & 5 · opp 40 · Q3 11:546Go for itnot graded0.63-0.150.71stopped
4th & 6 · opp 9 · Q4 1:146Field goalnot graded2.79–2.90good
4th & 2 · opp 48 · Q1 4:355Go for itGo for it0.95-0.28–✓converted
4th & 3 · opp 8 · Q1 2:345Go for itGo for it3.67–2.91✓converted
4th & 16 · opp 40 · Q2 11:005PuntField goal-0.24-0.150.71−0.86punted
4th & 8 · own 15 · Q3 9:595Puntnot graded-2.66-1.93–punted
4th & 9 · opp 9 · Q4 14:155Field goalnot graded1.44–2.90good
4th & 3 · opp 29 · Q1 7:404Go for itField goal1.80–2.11−0.31converted
4th & 10 · own 35 · Q2 0:404Puntnot graded-1.50-0.83–punted
4th & 2 · opp 17 · Q3 10:094Go for itGo for it3.01–2.75✓converted
4th & 7 · own 44 · Q3 3:334PuntPunt (toss-up)-0.65-0.49–✓punted
4th & 2 · own 45 · Q3 0:564PuntGo for it0.51-0.46–−0.97punted
4th & 4 · own 42 · Q4 6:454PuntGo for it-0.29-0.56–−0.26punted
4th & 9 · opp 45 · Q1 10:203PuntField goal (toss-up)-0.16-0.22-0.16−0.06punted
4th & 3 · own 27 · Q2 11:233PuntGo for it (toss-up)-0.97-1.21–−0.24punted
4th & 6 · opp 17 · Q2 9:123Field goalField goal2.00–2.75✓good
4th & 1 · own 47 · Q3 13:233Go for itGo for it1.21-0.40–✓converted
4th & 6 · opp 20 · Q3 9:543Field goalField goal1.79–2.65✓missed
4th & 16 · opp 22 · Q4 13:213Field goalnot graded1.13–2.57good
4th & 7 · opp 25 · Q4 2:393Go for itnot graded1.32–2.40stopped
4th & 12 · opp 12 · Q2 14:182Field goalField goal1.06–2.86✓good
4th & 6 · own 35 · Q2 5:162PuntPunt-1.09-0.83–✓punted
4th & 10 · own 20 · Q2 0:522Puntnot graded-2.49-1.61–punted
4th & 3 · opp 29 · Q3 3:552Field goalField goal1.80–2.11✓missed
4th & 8 · opp 27 · Q3 0:462Field goalField goal1.08–2.27✓good
4th & 9 · opp 48 · Q4 10:002Puntnot graded-0.35-0.28–punted
4th & 5 · own 37 · Q4 3:332Puntnot graded-0.80-0.75–punted
4th & 7 · own 45 · Q1 7:351PuntPunt (toss-up)-0.59-0.46–✓punted
4th & 2 · own 40 · Q1 1:281PuntGo for it0.20-0.63–−0.83punted
4th & 3 · opp 47 · Q2 0:571Puntnot graded0.65-0.26-0.53punted
4th & 5 · opp 32 · Q3 11:531Field goalField goal1.15-0.111.82✓good
4th & 10 · own 6 · Q3 7:051PuntPunt-3.50-2.60–✓punted
4th & 2 · own 35 · Q4 3:491Go for itnot graded-0.11-0.83–converted
4th & 9 · opp 47 · Q4 2:001Go for itnot graded-0.29-0.26-0.53converted

Flags against

Ledger →

Bottom lineThe biggest here: Defensive Holding on NE in Week 4, worth +9 points of win probability to BUF.

How to read this chart
Each row is one flag:
the team in red was penalized, the team in green was helped.
The number on the right
is how much that flag moved the helped team's chance of winning, in points (100 = a whole game). When the play still counted, the play is included, so treat it as an upper bound.
Touchdown erased
marks a score wiped off by the flag, with the expected points it cost.
  1. 1Defensive HoldingNE → helped BUF · Wk 4 Q2 1:48 · (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 2-D.Moore (25-M.Jones) [53-C.Elliss]. PENALTY on NE-25-M.Jones, Defensive…+8.8 WP
  2. 2Ineligible Downfield PassNE → helped SEA · Wk 1 Q4 3:03 · (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on NE-75-A.Vera-Tucker, Ineligible Downfield Pass, 5 yards, enforced at…+8.6 WP
  3. 3Roughing the PasserNE → helped CHI · Wk 7 Q2 2:21 · (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep middle to 10-L.Burden to NE 48 for 22 yards (22-C.Woods; 14-R.Spillane). PENALTY on…+7.4 WP
  4. 4Unnecessary RoughnessNE → helped MIA · Wk 8 Q2 0:40 · (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass short middle to 1-J.Tolbert to NE 35 for 8 yards (7-C.Davis). MIA-6-M.Washington was injured during…+6.0 WP
  5. 5False StartNE → helped MIA · Wk 8 Q3 2:46 · PENALTY on NE-82-E.Raridon, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 10 - No Play.+4.9 WP
FoulFlagsYardsWP given
Offensive Holding1412927.6
False Start125820.4
Defensive Holding31512.0
Roughing the Passer23010.3
Ineligible Downfield Pass158.6
Illegal Block Above the Waist3306.2
Unnecessary Roughness1156.0
Neutral Zone Infraction5256.0

Flags drawn

  1. 1Defensive Pass InterferenceSEA → helped NE · Wk 1 Q2 9:22 · 10-D.Maye pass incomplete deep left to 1-A.Brown (29-J.Jobe). PENALTY on SEA-29-J.Jobe, Defensive Pass Interference, 34 yards,…+8.2 WP
  2. 2Roughing the KickerSEA → helped NE · Wk 1 Q3 13:26 · 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 38 yards to SEA 14, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed. PENALTY on SEA-44-C.Surratt, Roughing…+7.9 WP
  3. 3Offensive HoldingCHI → helped NE · Wk 7 Q4 5:27 · 65-L.Newman reported in as eligible. 4-D.Swift left end to CHI 26 for 8 yards (4-C.Woodson). PENALTY on CHI-13-Z.Thomas,…+6.9 WP
  4. 4Defensive Pass InterferenceLV → helped NE · Wk 5 Q1 4:00 · (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete deep right to 87-R.Doubs. PENALTY on LV-5-E.Stokes, Defensive Pass Interference, 27 yards,…+6.5 WP
  5. 5Unnecessary RoughnessSEA → helped NE · Wk 1 Q1 9:14 · (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye scrambles right end pushed ob at NE 27 for 1 yard (91-B.Murphy). PENALTY on SEA-58-D.Hall, Unnecessary…+6.1 WP

Garbage Time Tax

26.5% of the offense's yards came with the game decided · 5th most of 32

Bottom lineDeMario Douglas: 116 of 434 yards (27%) came with the game decided.

How to read this chart
One bar per player,
as long as his season yards (passing, rushing or receiving).
Blue = yards with the game still alive.
Striped amber = garbage time: yards gained when the offense's chance of winning was already under 10% or over 90%, so the game was basically decided.
The percentage
is the garbage-time share of his yards (amber from 30% up).
Drake MayeNE · passing · 2,282 yds26%
DeMario DouglasNE · receiving · 434 yds27%
Rhamondre StevensonNE · rushing · 399 yds7%
Hunter HenryNE · receiving · 361 yds21%
Romeo DoubsNE · receiving · 261 yds16%
Rhamondre StevensonNE · receiving · 252 yds10%

Our picks on the Patriots

Receipts →
  1. 1Week 9We gave the Patriots 55% at home against packers. 45-27 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Wrong
  2. 2Week 8We gave the Patriots 69% at dolphins. 24-19 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
  3. 3Week 7We gave the Patriots 44% at bears. 24-30 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
  4. 4Week 6We gave the Patriots 59% at home against jets. 19-26 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
  5. 5Week 5We gave the Patriots 38% at home against raiders. 17-45 final, a win. (rebuilt)Wrong
  6. 6Week 4We gave the Patriots 27% at bills. 29-26 final, a win. (rebuilt)Wrong
  7. 7Week 3We gave the Patriots 43% at jaguars. 6-35 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
  8. 8Week 2We gave the Patriots 47% at home against steelers. 3-20 final, a win. (rebuilt)Wrong
Cite thisPigskin Nightly, "New England Patriots verdict, 2026", https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/patriots/verdict (2026)CC BY 4.0Data licenseCSVJSONEmbedHow it works

Every number on this page is computed from the 2026 nflverse play-by-play by our own models. Nothing is hand-picked.