Bears 34, Seahawks 17: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 8 · Mon, Nov 2 · Lumen FieldFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
CHI	7	6	7	14	34
SEA	0	9	0	8	17

Home · 5-4SeattleSeahawks17

At a glanceUpdated Nov 11, 2026, 1:05 AM ET

The Chicago Bears beat the Seattle Seahawks 34-17 on Mon, Nov 2 at Lumen Field in Seattle, WA (Week 8, 2026 season). Records after the game: Bears 7-2, Seahawks 5-4. R.Odunze (CHI) led all players with +6.4 EPA on 6 targets.

Who won Bears vs Seahawks?

The Chicago Bears won 34-17. By quarter: CHI 7-6-7-14, SEA 0-9-0-8.

Who was the best player in Bears vs Seahawks?

By expected points added: R.Odunze (CHI, +6.4 EPA on 6 targets), J.Smith-Njigba (SEA, +6.0 EPA on 11 targets) and C.Williams (CHI, +5.1 EPA on 36 dropbacks).

What was the turning point of Bears vs Seahawks?

The biggest swing in win probability (18 points toward the Seahawks) came in Q2 at 0:30: (Shotgun) S.Darnold pass deep left to J.Smith-Njigba for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. J.Myers extra point is No Good, Wide Left, Center-C.Stoll, Holder-M.Dickson.

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Bears 34, Seahawks 17: Week 8 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-11-02-chi-at-sea (updated 2026-11-11).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 8 issue →

Week 8EarnedGame file →

Bears52% success · +0.18 EPA/play

3417

Seahawks32% success · −0.16 EPA/play

CHI >99% deserveddeserved <1% SEA

Bears earned it: the snaps said Bears by 15.8, a deserved win probability of more than 99%.

Deserved marginCHI by 15.8

Real marginCHI by 17

Luck pts CHI+1.6

Luck pts SEA+1.2

The swingQ2 0:37 · SEA · +15 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Flags that moved this game

1Defensive HoldingCHI → helped SEA · Wk 8 Q3 2:21 · (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at CHI 37 for -5 yards (98-M.Sweat). PENALTY on CHI-6-K.Gordon, Defensive Holding, 5…+4.8 WP
2Delay of GameCHI → helped SEA · Wk 8 Q4 9:01 · PENALTY on CHI, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 39 - No Play.+4.5 WP

Fourth downs our model disagreed with

1SEA · 4th & 2Mike Macdonald chose Punt at own 37, Wk 8 Q1 3:26, down 7. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−0.76 EP
2CHI · 4th & 2Ben Johnson chose Punt at own 25, Wk 8 Q3 13:41, up 4. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.59 EP
3CHI · 4th & 2Ben Johnson chose Punt at own 12, Wk 8 Q1 1:48, up 7. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.56 EP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA148 plays, one strand0 lead changes · 9 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewShawn Smith15 accepted flags in this game · 13.3 a game this season (one of the quietest crews)Market vs SnapsLine: SEA by 3 · Snaps: CHI by 15.8Bears covered; the snaps agree

34@17

Week 8Changes the winner

If the Seahawks had stopped that fourth-and-1

Seahawks after the play45%what really happened

Q1 10:58 4-D.Swift right tackle to CHI 49 for 5 yards (13-E.Jones).

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

SEA ▲CHI ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+18%Q2 0:30 · for SEA(Shotgun) S.Darnold pass deep left to J.Smith-Njigba for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. J.Myers extra point is No Good, Wide Left, Center-C.Stoll, Holder-M.Dickson.
+15%Q4 9:01 · for CHI(Shotgun) K.Raymond right end to SEA 5 for 39 yards (N.Pritchett).
+8%Q4 11:46 · for SEAS.Darnold pass short left to C.Kupp for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. S.Darnold pass to T.Horton is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
+8%Q4 8:28 · for CHI(No Huddle, Shotgun) D.Swift right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-S.Daly, Holder-T.Taylor.
+7%Q4 13:06 · for SEAJ.Price right end to CHI 16 for 9 yards (J.Johnson; D.Thieneman). CHI-J.Johnson was injured during the play.

Every drive, on the field

SEA attacks →← CHI attacks

Q1 15:00PUNT3p · 5y · 1:03
Q1 13:57TD17p · 80y · 8:32
Q1 5:25PUNT4p · 17y · 2:08
Q1 3:17PUNT3p · 8y · 1:36
Q1 1:41FG7p · 45y · 3:51
Q2 12:50PUNT3p · 4y · 1:41
Q2 11:09PUNT3p · 2y · 1:35
Q2 9:34FG7p · 47y · 3:27
Q2 6:07PUNT3p · 5y · 1:19
Q2 4:48FG8p · 55y · 3:40
Q2 1:08TD5p · 71y · 0:38
Q2 0:30HALF4p · 9y · 0:30
Q3 15:00PUNT3p · 8y · 1:30
Q3 13:30PUNT3p · 1y · 1:33
Q3 11:57TD10p · 69y · 6:19
Q3 5:38MISS11p · 44y · 6:29
Q4 14:09FUM3p · -2y · 1:03
Q4 13:06TD3p · 25y · 1:20
Q4 11:46TD6p · 56y · 3:18
Q4 8:28INT5p · 14y · 2:36
Q4 5:52TD4p · 6y · 1:11
Q4 4:41DOWNS11p · 69y · 2:25
Q4 2:16END4p · 11y · 2:16

Bears10 drives6scoring drives (4 TD)60%drives ending in pointsOWN 31avg starting field position3three-and-outs1turnovers incl. downs

Seahawks11 drives3scoring drives (2 TD)27%drives ending in pointsOWN 32avg starting field position4three-and-outs2turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
5:25Touchdown(No Huddle, Shotgun) C.Williams pass short right to L.Burden for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-S.Daly, Holder-T.Taylor.7–0
Q2
12:50Field goalJ.Myers 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-C.Stoll, Holder-M.Dickson.7–3
Q2
6:07Field goalC.Santos 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-S.Daly, Holder-T.Taylor.10–3
Q2
1:08Field goalC.Santos 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-S.Daly, Holder-T.Taylor.13–3
Q2
0:30Touchdown(Shotgun) S.Darnold pass deep left to J.Smith-Njigba for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. J.Myers extra point is No Good, Wide Left, Center-C.Stoll, Holder-M.Dickson.13–9
Q3
5:38Touchdown(Shotgun) D.Swift left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-S.Daly, Holder-T.Taylor.20–9
Q4
11:46TouchdownS.Darnold pass short left to C.Kupp for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. S.Darnold pass to T.Horton is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.20–17
Q4
8:28Touchdown(No Huddle, Shotgun) D.Swift right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-S.Daly, Holder-T.Taylor.27–17
Q4
4:41TouchdownD.Swift left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-S.Daly, Holder-T.Taylor.34–17

Team stats

CHIvsSEA

363Total yards252

237Passing yards171

126Rushing yards81

5.2Yards per play4.5

22First downs18

7-15 · 47%Third down1-11 · 9%

1-1Fourth down1-2

4-4Red zone TDs1-4

24/34Comp / att17/34

3.6Yards per carry4.3

1Turnovers1

1 (−10 yds)Sacks allowed3 (−17 yds)

10 for 85Penalties5 for 43

35:03Possession24:57

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play+0.175-0.163

Dropback EPA+0.141-0.158

Rush EPA+0.213-0.173

Success rate52%32%

Explosive plays54

Plays6957

Who moved the needle

R.OdunzeTargets: 6+6.4

J.Smith-NjigbaTargets: 11+6.0

C.WilliamsDropbacks: 36+5.1

L.BurdenTargets: 9+2.8

T.HortonTargets: 7+2.6

D.SwiftCarries: 27+1.8

Cost their side the most

S.DarnoldDropbacks: 40-6.3

A.BarnerTargets: 5-6.1

Z.CharbonnetTargets: 4-2.9

Box score

Chicago Bears

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Caleb WilliamsQB	24/34	247	7.3	1	0	1-10	68.1	101.0

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
D'Andre SwiftRB	27	69	2.6	3	7
Kalif RaymondWR	1	39	39.0	0	39
Roschon JohnsonRB	5	17	3.4	0	9
Caleb WilliamsQB	2	1	0.5	0	2

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Rome OdunzeWR	4	6	87	21.8	0	24
Colston LovelandTE	7	9	65	9.3	0	15
Luther Burden IIIWR	7	9	56	8.0	1	23
Kalif RaymondWR	2	3	14	7.0	0	9
Roschon JohnsonRB	1	1	11	11.0	0	11
D'Andre SwiftRB	2	3	10	5.0	0	8
Zavion ThomasWR	1	3	4	4.0	0	4

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Devin BushLB	6	5	1	1	0	1
Jeffery SimmonsDT	6	3	1	2	1	1
Tyrique Stevenson Sr.CB	5	4	0	0	1	0
Jaylon JohnsonCB	5	3	0	1	0	0
Dillon ThienemanS	5	3	0	0	0	0
Daniel HardyDE	3	2	0	0	0	0
Noah SewellLB	3	2	0	0	0	0
Austin BookerDE	3	1	0	0	1	0
T.J. EdwardsLB	2	2	0	0	0	0
Cam LewisCB	2	2	0	0	1	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Cairo SantosPK	2/2	100.0	44	4/4	10

Seattle Seahawks

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Sam DarnoldQB	17/34	188	5.5	2	1	3-17	31.2	74.1

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
Jadarian PriceRB	10	29	2.9	9
Zach CharbonnetRB	6	23	3.8	13
Sam DarnoldQB	2	20	10.0	14
George HolaniRB	1	9	9.0	9

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR	6	11	118	19.7	1	43
Tory HortonWR	3	6	26	8.7	0	13
AJ BarnerTE	2	5	23	11.5	0	17
Jadarian PriceRB	2	4	8	4.0	0	6
Cooper KuppWR	1	3	7	7.0	1	7
Zach CharbonnetRB	3	4	6	2.0	0	6
George HolaniRB	0	1	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Ernest Jones IVLB	13	5	0	0	1	0
Devon WitherspoonCB	8	5	0	1	0	0
Julian LoveS	7	5	0	0	0	0
Jarran ReedDT	7	4	0	2	0	0
Drake ThomasLB	7	1	0	0	0	0
Josh JobeCB	5	4	0	0	0	0
Nick EmmanworiS	5	2	0	0	0	1
Mike MorrisDE	4	3	1	1	0	1
Derick HallLB	4	3	0	1	0	0
Nehemiah PritchettCB	3	3	0	0	1	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Jason MyersPK	1/2	50.0	27	0/1	3

Before kickoff · Regular season through week 7 · rank out of 32

Where it was expected to be decided

1Bears third-down defense vs Seahawks third-down offense
The Bears' third-down defense ranks 1st in third-down conversion rate (26.1% allowed, 69 third downs faced) and faces a Seahawks third-down offense ranked 17th (40.0%, 90 third downs).
17thSEA offense16 spots apart1stCHI defense
2Bears pass rush vs Seahawks pass protection
The Bears' pass rush ranks 3rd in sack rate (8.4% of dropbacks, 227 dropbacks faced) and faces a Seahawks pass protection ranked 18th (6.4% sacked, 249 dropbacks).
18thSEA offense15 spots apart3rdCHI defense
3Bears run defense vs Seahawks run game
The Bears' run defense ranks 16th in EPA per rush (-0.08 allowed, 124 rushes faced) and faces a Seahawks run game ranked 30th (-0.22, 195 rushes).
30thSEA offense14 spots apart16thCHI defense

When the Bears have the ballEdge SEA · +13 ranks

CHI dropback offenseEPA per dropbackSEA pass defense

9th+0.13277 dropbacks

-0.10 allowed250 dropbacks faced2nd

CHI run gameEPA per rushSEA run defense

14th-0.06220 rushes

SEA +13

-0.18 allowed156 rushes faced1st

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Seahawks have the ballEdge CHI · +14 ranks

SEA dropback offenseEPA per dropbackCHI pass defense

16th+0.10249 dropbacks

+0.04 allowed227 dropbacks faced16th

SEA run gameEPA per rushCHI run defense

30th-0.22195 rushes

CHI +14

-0.08 allowed124 rushes faced16th

Third downEdge CHI · +16 ranks

CHI third-down offensethird-down conversion rateSEA third-down defense

7th44.0%100 third downs

32.3% allowed93 third downs faced6th

SEA third-down offensethird-down conversion rateCHI third-down defense

17th40.0%90 third downs

CHI +16

26.1% allowed69 third downs faced1st

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneEdge CHI · +9 ranks

CHI red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateSEA red-zone defense

23rd50%30 trips

CHI +9

85% allowed13 trips faced32nd

SEA red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateCHI red-zone defense

20th55%22 trips

69% allowed16 trips faced24th

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsEdge SEA · +9 ranks

CHI big-play offenseexplosive-play rateSEA defense against big plays

9th10.5%497 plays

5.2% allowed406 plays faced2nd

SEA big-play offenseexplosive-play rateCHI defense against big plays

15th9.2%444 plays

SEA +9

10.5% allowed351 plays faced24th

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksEdge CHI · +15 ranks

CHI pass protectionsack rateSEA pass rush

19th6.5% sacked277 dropbacks

SEA +9

6.8% of dropbacks250 dropbacks faced10th

SEA pass protectionsack rateCHI pass rush

18th6.4% sacked249 dropbacks

CHI +15

8.4% of dropbacks227 dropbacks faced3rd

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversEdge SEA · +17 ranks

CHI ball securityturnovers per gameSEA takeaway defense

25th1.6 giveaways a game7 games

SEA +17

1.4 takeaways a game7 games8th

SEA ball securityturnovers per gameCHI takeaway defense

30th1.9 giveaways a game7 games

CHI +14

1.0 takeaways a game7 games16th

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

Sample: CHI 7 games, 497 offensive and 351 defensive plays · SEA 7 games, 444 offensive and 406 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

D'Marco JacksonSLB→ Austin Booker

Drew LockQB→ Sam Darnold

Brady RussellFB→ Jadarian Price

Rashid ShaheedWR→ Tory Horton

Anthony BradfordRG→ Quenton Nelson

Uchenna NwosuSLB→ Derick Hall

AwayBears2 questionable · 1 change