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Texans DeskThe Verdict

Texans earned 44-22 win over Chargers, and the snaps say it was no fluke

Houston's 0.28 EPA per snap against the Chargers' minus-0.14 backed the 22-point win, but the fourth-down punt keeps the Chicken Index high.

OffenseThe VerdictEarnedDeserved >99% · Week 9
By Texans Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 10, 9:31 AM ET2 min read

The verdict

Played like that, the Texans win more than 99% of the time. The snaps put Houston ahead by 20.7 points, and the 44-22 final at Los Angeles, a 22-point margin, landed within 1.3 points of that. This one was earned.

The play that carried it came in the second quarter with 4:37 on the clock. C.Stroud threw deep right from the shotgun to T.Dell for a 63-yard touchdown. It added 18 percentage points of win probability, the largest swing of the game.

What the score hid

Nothing, and that is the finding. The Texans averaged 0.28 EPA per snap, against minus-0.14 for the Chargers. EPA, expected points added, measures what each play gains or costs compared with the average for that down, distance and field position. A gap of 0.42 per snap across a full game is wide.

Success rate told the same story: 45% for Houston, 36% for Los Angeles. The luck ledger tilted the same way but only slightly. The Texans picked up 0.6 luck points, while the Chargers lost 3.9. Houston did not need the bounces, and the Chargers got the wrong ones.

The calls

Head coach DeMeco Ryans got one fourth-down decision right and one wrong. On fourth-and-6 from the Chargers' 38 in the first quarter, with 3:16 left, the Texans kicked a field goal. The model rated that a lean toward the kick, and it was good.

The second was a clear miss. With 13:39 left in the second quarter, the Texans faced fourth-and-1, 83 yards from the end zone, with a 63% win probability, and punted. The model said go, and the punt cost 1.2 expected points. The 44 points on the board forgave it, but the call was still wrong.

The flags favored Houston on balance. A face mask on the Chargers in the first quarter, at 13:14, gave the Texans 15 yards and 8 points of win probability. A Los Angeles false start late in the second quarter was worth 4. Against that, a Houston face mask in the second quarter cost 3 points and a first-quarter false start cost another 3.

The trend

The record reads 3-5, but the snaps say 4.2 deserved wins. That 1.2-win shortfall ranks 29th of 32 in luck, with the luckiest teams first. Houston is 1-4 in one-score games, and has no game this season that the model calls robbed or won while lucky. The luck that exists is small: 1.1 points from fumble recoveries and minus-2.3 from opponent kicking, for a net of 1.1 luck points. The net EPA per snap of 0.042 ranks 12th in the league.

The leak is on fourth down. Of 42 graded decisions, the model recommended going on 14, and Ryans went on 5. That gives the Texans a Chicken Index of 64%, seventh most timid of 32 teams. The six clear misses have cost 9.1 expected points. The penalty column is heavy too: 64 flags against for 544 yards, a net minus-14 points of win probability.

Expect the record to drift toward the 4.2 deserved wins if the Stroud and Dell connection keeps producing plays like the 63-yarder. Houston plays at the Cleveland Browns in Week 10, Sunday, Nov. 15, at 1:00 PM ET on Fox. The first fourth-and-short will show whether the punt in Los Angeles was a lapse or a habit.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.