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Panthers DeskThe Verdict

Panthers outplayed Denver and lost 26-21 on a late strip sack

The snaps gave Carolina a 79% chance against Denver, and a Week 9 fumble in the final two minutes turned that into a 3-5 record.

DefenseThe VerdictRobbedDeserved 79% · Week 9
By Panthers Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 10, 9:21 AM ET2 min read

The verdict

The snaps gave the Panthers a 79% chance of beating the Broncos. Played like that, they win four times out of five. They lost 26-21 at home, so this one was robbed.

Carolina played like a team 4.4 points better than Denver. That is a small edge, but it is the kind of edge a rebuilding team needs to turn into wins.

What the score hid

The Panthers averaged 0.1 EPA per snap against 0.03 for Denver. EPA, expected points added, measures how much each play moves the scoreboard compared with an average result from that down and spot. Carolina's success rate was 47%, Denver's 43%.

Luck points settle the argument. The Panthers finished at -2.9 and the Broncos at +4.5, a gap of 7.4 points in Denver's favor.

The swing play came at 1:24 of the fourth quarter. B.Young was sacked at the Denver 44 for a loss of 8 and fumbled. N.Bonitto made the sack and recovered the ball, and the replay official upheld the ruling on the field. That one snap moved win probability by 33 percentage points.

The calls

Dave Canales had a clean afternoon on fourth down. All four of his decisions matched the model, and none cost the Panthers expected points. They punted on fourth-and-7 and fourth-and-9 in the first quarter, and punted on fourth-and-18 in the fourth. In the second quarter they kicked on fourth-and-6 from 25 yards out. That kick was missed, and the call was not the problem.

The flags hurt more. Defensive pass interference on Carolina in the first quarter gave Denver 27 yards and swung win probability by 10 points. An illegal use of hands penalty on the Panthers with 0:16 left in the third quarter cost another 6 points, and a second pass interference call in the fourth, for 8 yards, cost 5. Denver was flagged for roughing the passer at 3:18 of the fourth, which gave the Panthers 5 yards and 7 points of win probability. It did not undo the damage.

The trend

The Panthers are 3-5 and the snaps say they should be about 3.7 wins deep, so the luck gap is only -0.7 wins. That still ranks 25th of 32 teams, luckiest first. They are 1-3 in one-score games.

The total luck sheet reads -6.2 points. Opponent kicking accounts for -2.5 of it and fumble recoveries for -0.9. The discipline numbers are real, though: 70 penalties for 635 yards, worth a net of -12 points of win probability on the season. Luck did not throw those flags.

On fourth down, the Panthers have gone on 7 of the 9 chances where the model recommended going. Their Chicken Index is 22%, 27th of 32 with the most timid teams first, and the cost across 38 graded fourth downs is 2.8 expected points, with two clear misses. Net EPA per snap is 0, 17th in the league. A team that sits in the middle of the pack by that measure and 3-5 by record is due some of it back, as recoveries and kicks regress.

The next test is at the New Orleans Saints on Sunday, Nov. 15, at 1:00 PM ET on Fox.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.