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The Verdict2026 · Week 4

Week 4The Verdict

16 games, re-judged from every snap. No result this week went against the play by our standard, though 4 were coin flips. Coaches faced 166 gradeable fourth downs and kicked away 21 the model said to go for. Our pregame picks went 12-4.

← Week 3Week 5 →Updated Nov 10, 8:54 AM ETHow we judge
Closest call of the weekTexans logoHOU 64%deserved win probability in a 34-30 gameLuckiest recordBroncos logoDEN +2.9 W7-2 real, 4.1 deserved · 6-0 in one-score gamesCostliest flag+35 WPUnnecessary Roughness on LV, 3:35 in the Q4Worst fourth-down call−1.40 EPMatt LaFleur: punted on 4th & 2 at opp 44

The cases

Every Week 4 game · most disputed first

Bottom lineNone of these 16 games went against the play; 4 were coin flips.

How to read this chart
Each card is one game.
Under each team: its success rate (share of snaps that kept the offense on schedule) and EPA per play (expected points added: how much each snap improved its scoring chances; 0 is average).
The split bar is the deserved win probability:
how often each team would win if the game were replayed from the same snaps. Away team on the left, home team on the right, 50-50 at the tick in the middle. The longer side played better.
The stamp is the ruling.
Earned: the winner also played better. Coin flip: the winner deserved it less than 60% of the time. Robbed: the loser deserved to win at least 70% of the time.
Luck pts
(full cards): real margin minus deserved margin; plus means the scoreboard was kinder than the play.
No. 1 · Week 4Coin flipGame file →
Cowboys logoCowboys44% success · +0.14 EPA/play
3430
Texans logoTexans48% success · +0.24 EPA/play

Cowboys won as the underdog of the snaps: 36%, with Texans better by 1.9.

Deserved marginHOU by 1.9
Real marginDAL by 4
Luck pts DAL−2.2
Luck pts HOU+1.4

The swingQ4 0:43 · DAL · +29 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 88-C.Lamb for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

No. 2 · Week 4Coin flipGame file →
Chargers logoChargers40% success · −0.06 EPA/play
2330
Seahawks logoSeahawks39% success · −0.13 EPA/play

Seahawks won as the underdog of the snaps: 38%, with Chargers better by 1.7.

Deserved marginLAC by 1.7
Real marginSEA by 7
Luck pts LAC−3.3
Luck pts SEA+3.1

The swingQ1 10:13 · SEA · +16 pts of win probability. 4-M.Dickson punts 45 yards to LAC 23, Center-41-C.Stoll. 12-D.Davis MUFFS catch, touched at LAC 25, RECOVERED by SEA-57-C.O'Toole at LAC 23.

No. 3 · Week 4Coin flipGame file →
Chiefs logoChiefs43% success · +0.09 EPA/play
3027
Raiders logoRaiders49% success · +0.05 EPA/play

Chiefs earned it: the snaps said Chiefs by 0.6, a deserved win probability of 54%.

Deserved marginKC by 0.6
Real marginKC by 3
Luck pts KC0.0
Luck pts LV−2.1

The swingQ4 3:35 · KC · +35 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 2-T.Thornton to LV 5 for 55 yards (31-T.Stukes). KC-2-T.Thornton was injured during the play. PENALTY on LV-7-Q.Walker, Unnecessary Roughness, 3 yards, enforced at LV 5.

No. 4 · Week 4Coin flipGame file →
Dolphins logoDolphins35% success · −0.15 EPA/play
1015
Vikings logoVikings39% success · −0.07 EPA/play

Vikings earned it: the snaps said Vikings by 1.2, a deserved win probability of 58%.

Deserved marginMIN by 1.2
Real marginMIN by 5
Luck pts MIA−3.9
Luck pts MIN+1.9

The swingQ3 14:08 · MIA · +11 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 0-O.Gordon left tackle pushed ob at MIN 11 for 53 yards (7-B.Murphy; 22-H.Smith).

Luck Index

All 32 →

Bottom lineDenver Broncos: 7-2 with 4.1 deserved wins (+2.9). New York Jets: 2-7 with 4.5 (−2.5).

How to read this chart
One row per team;
the scale along the bottom counts wins.
Solid dot = real wins
(a tie counts as half). Gold ring = deserved wins: each game's deserved win probability added up, the record the team's snaps earned.
The line joins the two.
Red: the record is ahead of the play, and that gap usually closes (due to fall). Green: the record is behind the play (due to rise). Longer line, bigger gap.
The number on the right
is luck wins: real wins minus deserved wins.

Looking back, not ahead. Deserved wins grade how well a team has played, from every snap of the games already played. They are not a forecast of the games to come. How well they hold up

Real winsDeserved winsRecord ahead of the play: due to fallRecord behind the play: due to rise
Broncos logoDEN7-2+2.9 WBills logoBUF7-1+1.4 WLions logoDET6-2+1.3 WVikings logoMIN6-2+1.3 WSteelers logoPIT6-2+1.0 WChargers logoLAC0-8−1.0 WTexans logoHOU3-5−1.2 WRams logoLAR5-4−1.6 WBuccaneers logoTB3-6−1.7 WJets logoNYJ2-7−2.5 W
01234567

Season to date. Deserved wins add up each game's deserved win probability: a look back at games already played, not a forecast. The five records furthest ahead of the play, then the five furthest behind.

Flags that mattered

Ledger →

Bottom lineThe biggest here: Unnecessary Roughness on LV in Week 4, worth +35 points of win probability to KC.

How to read this chart
Each row is one flag:
the team in red was penalized, the team in green was helped.
The number on the right
is how much that flag moved the helped team's chance of winning, in points (100 = a whole game). When the play still counted, the play is included, so treat it as an upper bound.
Touchdown erased
marks a score wiped off by the flag, with the expected points it cost.
  1. 1Unnecessary RoughnessLV → helped KC · Wk 4 Q4 3:35 · (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 2-T.Thornton to LV 5 for 55 yards (31-T.Stukes). KC-2-T.Thornton was injured during the…+34.9 WP
  2. 2Offensive HoldingHOU → helped DAL · Wk 4 Q4 3:30 · (Shotgun) 4-W.Marks left end to DAL 15 for 8 yards (24-M.Hooker). PENALTY on HOU-69-E.Ingram, Offensive Holding, 10 yards,…+14.3 WP
  3. 3Roughing the PasserCLE → helped PIT · Wk 4 Q1 5:49 · (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 11-M.Pittman to CLE 35 for 9 yards (21-D.Ward). PENALTY on CLE-96-M.Collins, Roughing…+12.3 WP
  4. 4Defensive HoldingARI → helped NYG · Wk 4 Q3 2:34 · 34-D.Zvada 34 yard field goal is GOOD, NULLIFIED by Penalty, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout. PENALTY on ARI-55-D.Stills,…+11.1 WP
  5. 5Defensive Pass InterferenceCLE → helped PIT · Wk 4 Q4 1:51 · (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short middle to 80-D.Washington (28-E.McNeil-Warren). PENALTY on CLE-28-E.McNeil-Warren,…+10.7 WP

Coach on trial

Every fourth down →

Bottom lineThe calls against the model in this list cost 6.1 expected points in total.

How to read this chart
Each row is one fourth down:
distance, spot, score, what the coach chose and what our model would have done (a clear call, a lean or a toss-up).
The number on the right
is what the choice cost in expected points (EP, what a possession is worth on average from that spot): −1.00 means about a point thrown away. ✓ = the coach made the model's call.
The result
is what happened next; the grade judges the decision, not the outcome.
  1. 1GB · 4th & 2Matt LaFleur chose Punt at opp 44, Wk 4 Q1 10:27, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.40 EP
  2. 2IND · 4th & 1Shane Steichen chose Punt at own 37, Wk 4 Q1 0:27, down 6. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.34 EP
  3. 3CLE · 4th & 1Todd Monken chose Punt at own 25, Wk 4 Q1 12:59, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.18 EP
  4. 4SF · 4th & 1Kyle Shanahan chose Punt at own 21, Wk 4 Q2 10:36, down 3. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.15 EP
  5. 5KC · 4th & 3Andy Reid chose Punt at opp 45, Wk 4 Q2 11:28, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−0.99 EP

Right call  Brave and right

  1. 1BAL · 4th & 1Jesse Minter chose Go for it at opp 5, Wk 4 Q1 12:13, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: touchdown.✓ EP
  2. 2LA · 4th & 1Sean McVay chose Go for it at own 49, Wk 4 Q3 10:40, down 10. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
  3. 3IND · 4th & 1Shane Steichen chose Go for it at own 48, Wk 4 Q2 10:35, down 6. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP

Garbage Time Tax

Full list →

Bottom lineQuentin Johnston: 160 of 260 yards (62%) came with the game decided.

How to read this chart
One bar per player,
as long as his season yards (passing, rushing or receiving).
Blue = yards with the game still alive.
Striped amber = garbage time: yards gained when the offense's chance of winning was already under 10% or over 90%, so the game was basically decided.
The percentage
is the garbage-time share of his yards (amber from 30% up).
Quentin JohnstonLAC · receiving · 260 yds62%
Jahan DotsonATL · receiving · 353 yds59%
Kenny GainwellTB · rushing · 305 yds49%
Emanuel WilsonSEA · rushing · 403 yds45%
Tyler AllgeierARI · rushing · 369 yds41%
Kyle MonangaiCHI · rushing · 324 yds40%

Season to date.

Our receipts

Every pick →
Week 412-4Brier 0.204 (a coin flip scores 0.250)
Season73-47Brier 0.240 · closing line 0.215

The Brier score measures how close our probabilities were to what happened: 0 is perfect, 0.250 is a coin flip, lower is better. We publish ours even when the betting market beats us.

Back issues

Week 915 games · 1 robbedWeek 814 games · 2 robbedWeek 714 games · 0 robbedWeek 614 games · 0 robbedWeek 515 games · 0 robbedWeek 416 games · 0 robbedWeek 316 games · 3 robbedWeek 216 games · 1 robbedWeek 116 games · 0 robbed
Cite thisPigskin Nightly, "The Verdict, Week 4", https://pigskinnightly.com/verdict/week/4 (2026)CC BY 4.0Data licenseCSVJSONEmbedHow it works