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The Verdict2026 · Week 3

Week 3The Verdict

16 games, re-judged from every snap. 3 results the play did not support, 3 more that were coin flips. Coaches faced 162 gradeable fourth downs and kicked away 15 the model said to go for. Our pregame picks went 9-7.

← Week 2Week 4 →Updated Nov 10, 6:29 AM ETHow we judge
Robbery of the weekBengals logoCIN 76%deserved win probability in a 30-27 lossLuckiest recordBroncos logoDEN +2.9 W7-2 real, 4.1 deserved · 6-0 in one-score gamesCostliest flag+19 WPDefensive Pass Interference on DAL, 11:37 in the Q2Worst fourth-down call−1.41 EPAaron Glenn: punted on 4th & 1 at own 40

The cases

Every Week 3 game · most disputed first

Bottom line3 of these 16 games went against the play. The biggest: CIN @ PIT, where the Bengals lost with a 76% deserved win probability. 3 more were coin flips.

How to read this chart
Each card is one game.
Under each team: its success rate (share of snaps that kept the offense on schedule) and EPA per play (expected points added: how much each snap improved its scoring chances; 0 is average).
The split bar is the deserved win probability:
how often each team would win if the game were replayed from the same snaps. Away team on the left, home team on the right, 50-50 at the tick in the middle. The longer side played better.
The stamp is the ruling.
Earned: the winner also played better. Coin flip: the winner deserved it less than 60% of the time. Robbed: the loser deserved to win at least 70% of the time.
Luck pts
(full cards): real margin minus deserved margin; plus means the scoreboard was kinder than the play.
No. 1 · Week 3RobbedGame file →
Bengals logoBengals55% success · +0.31 EPA/play
2730
Steelers logoSteelers48% success · +0.20 EPA/play

Bengals played like a 3.8-point better team. A team that plays like that wins 76% of the time. Bengals lost.

Deserved marginCIN by 3.8
Real marginPIT by 3
Luck pts CIN−3.0
Luck pts PIT+1.0

The swingQ4 0:53 · CIN · −42 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow sacked at PIT 46 for -8 yards (99-D.Harmon). FUMBLES (99-D.Harmon) [99-D.Harmon], RECOVERED by PIT-69-S.Joseph at CIN 49.

No. 2 · Week 3RobbedGame file →
Ravens logoRavens50% success · +0.13 EPA/play
3431
Cowboys logoCowboys47% success · +0.16 EPA/play

Cowboys played like a 3.5-point better team. A team that plays like that wins 74% of the time. Cowboys lost.

Deserved marginDAL by 3.5
Real marginBAL by 3
Luck pts BAL+1.4
Luck pts DAL−1.6

The swingQ4 0:01 · BAL · +27 pts of win probability. 33-T.Loop 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley.

No. 3 · Week 3RobbedGame file →
Rams logoRams41% success · +0.01 EPA/play
2630
Broncos logoBroncos39% success · −0.06 EPA/play

Rams played like a 3.1-point better team. A team that plays like that wins 71% of the time. Rams lost.

Deserved marginLAR by 3.1
Real marginDEN by 4
Luck pts LAR+0.6
Luck pts DEN+0.5

The swingQ4 5:01 · LA · −53 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 23-K.Williams INTERCEPTED by 9-T.Hufanga at DEN 34. 9-T.Hufanga for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

No. 4 · Week 3Coin flipGame file →
Titans logoTitans40% success · −0.15 EPA/play
712
Giants logoGiants39% success · −0.17 EPA/play

Giants won a coin flip: the snaps had it 48% for Giants.

Deserved marginTEN by 0.3
Real marginNYG by 5
Luck pts TEN−0.7
Luck pts NYG+1.6

The swingQ4 0:24 · TEN · −46 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left intended for 5-E.Ayomanor INTERCEPTED by 8-J.Holland at NYG -4. Touchback. PENALTY on NYG-3-A.Carter, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 20.

Luck Index

All 32 →

Bottom lineDenver Broncos: 7-2 with 4.1 deserved wins (+2.9). New York Jets: 2-7 with 4.5 (−2.5).

How to read this chart
One row per team;
the scale along the bottom counts wins.
Solid dot = real wins
(a tie counts as half). Gold ring = deserved wins: each game's deserved win probability added up, the record the team's snaps earned.
The line joins the two.
Red: the record is ahead of the play, and that gap usually closes (due to fall). Green: the record is behind the play (due to rise). Longer line, bigger gap.
The number on the right
is luck wins: real wins minus deserved wins.

Looking back, not ahead. Deserved wins grade how well a team has played, from every snap of the games already played. They are not a forecast of the games to come. How well they hold up

Real winsDeserved winsRecord ahead of the play: due to fallRecord behind the play: due to rise
Broncos logoDEN7-2+2.9 WBills logoBUF7-1+1.4 WLions logoDET6-2+1.3 WVikings logoMIN6-2+1.3 WSteelers logoPIT6-2+1.0 WChargers logoLAC0-8−1.0 WTexans logoHOU3-5−1.2 WRams logoLAR5-4−1.6 WBuccaneers logoTB3-6−1.7 WJets logoNYJ2-7−2.5 W
01234567

Season to date. Deserved wins add up each game's deserved win probability: a look back at games already played, not a forecast. The five records furthest ahead of the play, then the five furthest behind.

Flags that mattered

Ledger →

Bottom lineThe biggest here: Defensive Pass Interference on DAL in Week 3, worth +19 points of win probability to BAL.

How to read this chart
Each row is one flag:
the team in red was penalized, the team in green was helped.
The number on the right
is how much that flag moved the helped team's chance of winning, in points (100 = a whole game). When the play still counted, the play is included, so treat it as an upper bound.
Touchdown erased
marks a score wiped off by the flag, with the expected points it cost.
  1. 1Defensive Pass InterferenceDAL → helped BAL · Wk 3 Q2 11:37 · (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete deep middle to 81-D.Walker. PENALTY on DAL-14-M.Bell, Defensive Pass Interference, 49…+19.0 WP
  2. 2Roughing the PasserCAR → helped CLE · Wk 3 Q4 2:36 · (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep right intended for 1-K.Concepcion INTERCEPTED by 29-A.Evans (24-W.Lee) at CAR -3. Touchback.…+16.9 WP
  3. 3Unnecessary RoughnessMIN → helped TB · Wk 3 Q4 10:49 · (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 2-E.Egbuka to TB 46 for 10 yards (44-J.Metellus; 7-B.Murphy). PENALTY on…+15.3 WP
  4. 4Roughing the KickerCIN → helped PIT · Wk 3 Q3 6:48 · 19-C.Johnston punts 53 yards to CIN 6, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-26-B.Echols. PENALTY on CIN-52-C.Johnson, Roughing the…+14.5 WP
  5. 5Defensive Pass InterferenceSF → helped ARI · Wk 3 Q4 13:38 · 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep left to 85-T.McBride. SF-57-D.Greenlaw was injured during the play. PENALTY on SF-2-D.Lenoir,…+13.3 WP

Coach on trial

Every fourth down →

Bottom lineThe calls against the model in this list cost 5.8 expected points in total.

How to read this chart
Each row is one fourth down:
distance, spot, score, what the coach chose and what our model would have done (a clear call, a lean or a toss-up).
The number on the right
is what the choice cost in expected points (EP, what a possession is worth on average from that spot): −1.00 means about a point thrown away. ✓ = the coach made the model's call.
The result
is what happened next; the grade judges the decision, not the outcome.
  1. 1NYJ · 4th & 1Aaron Glenn chose Punt at own 40, Wk 3 Q1 12:54, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.41 EP
  2. 2NYG · 4th & 21John Harbaugh chose Punt at opp 38, Wk 3 Q1 12:22, tied. Model: Field goal (clear call). Result: punted.−1.16 EP
  3. 3JAX · 4th & 1Liam Coen chose Punt at own 21, Wk 3 Q1 13:14, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.15 EP
  4. 4CIN · 4th & 2Zac Taylor chose Punt at own 49, Wk 3 Q4 7:46, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.11 EP
  5. 5CAR · 4th & 2Dave Canales chose Punt at own 44, Wk 3 Q1 6:00, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−0.94 EP

Right call  Brave and right

  1. 1GB · 4th & 1Matt LaFleur chose Go for it at opp 7, Wk 3 Q3 10:02, down 10. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: stopped.✓ EP
  2. 2IND · 4th & 1Shane Steichen chose Go for it at opp 48, Wk 3 Q3 3:24, up 6. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
  3. 3NE · 4th & 1Mike Vrabel chose Go for it at own 47, Wk 3 Q3 13:23, down 11. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP

Garbage Time Tax

Full list →

Bottom lineQuentin Johnston: 160 of 260 yards (62%) came with the game decided.

How to read this chart
One bar per player,
as long as his season yards (passing, rushing or receiving).
Blue = yards with the game still alive.
Striped amber = garbage time: yards gained when the offense's chance of winning was already under 10% or over 90%, so the game was basically decided.
The percentage
is the garbage-time share of his yards (amber from 30% up).
Quentin JohnstonLAC · receiving · 260 yds62%
Jahan DotsonATL · receiving · 353 yds59%
Kenny GainwellTB · rushing · 305 yds49%
Emanuel WilsonSEA · rushing · 403 yds45%
Tyler AllgeierARI · rushing · 369 yds41%
Kyle MonangaiCHI · rushing · 324 yds40%

Season to date.

Our receipts

Every pick →
Week 39-7Brier 0.248 (a coin flip scores 0.250)
Season73-47Brier 0.240 · closing line 0.215

The Brier score measures how close our probabilities were to what happened: 0 is perfect, 0.250 is a coin flip, lower is better. We publish ours even when the betting market beats us.

Back issues

Week 915 games · 1 robbedWeek 814 games · 2 robbedWeek 714 games · 0 robbedWeek 614 games · 0 robbedWeek 515 games · 0 robbedWeek 416 games · 0 robbedWeek 316 games · 3 robbedWeek 216 games · 1 robbedWeek 116 games · 0 robbed
Cite thisPigskin Nightly, "The Verdict, Week 3", https://pigskinnightly.com/verdict/week/3 (2026)CC BY 4.0Data licenseCSVJSONEmbedHow it works