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The Verdict2026 · Week 5

Week 5The Verdict

15 games, re-judged from every snap. No result this week went against the play by our standard, though 1 were coin flips. Coaches faced 145 gradeable fourth downs and kicked away 21 the model said to go for. Our pregame picks went 10-5.

← Week 4Week 6 →Updated Nov 10, 8:54 AM ETHow we judge
Closest call of the weekRams logoLAR 56%deserved win probability in a 37-34 gameLuckiest recordBroncos logoDEN +2.9 W7-2 real, 4.1 deserved · 6-0 in one-score gamesCostliest flag+11 WPDefensive Holding on LA, 3:49 in the Q3Worst fourth-down call−1.41 EPAaron Glenn: punted on 4th & 1 at own 40

The cases

Every Week 5 game · most disputed first

Bottom lineNone of these 15 games went against the play; 1 were coin flips.

How to read this chart
Each card is one game.
Under each team: its success rate (share of snaps that kept the offense on schedule) and EPA per play (expected points added: how much each snap improved its scoring chances; 0 is average).
The split bar is the deserved win probability:
how often each team would win if the game were replayed from the same snaps. Away team on the left, home team on the right, 50-50 at the tick in the middle. The longer side played better.
The stamp is the ruling.
Earned: the winner also played better. Coin flip: the winner deserved it less than 60% of the time. Robbed: the loser deserved to win at least 70% of the time.
Luck pts
(full cards): real margin minus deserved margin; plus means the scoreboard was kinder than the play.
No. 1 · Week 5Coin flipGame file →
Bills logoBills55% success · +0.31 EPA/play
3734
Rams logoRams48% success · +0.23 EPA/play

Bills won a coin flip: the snaps had it 44% for Bills.

Deserved marginLAR by 0.9
Real marginBUF by 3
Luck pts BUF+4.3
Luck pts LAR−0.1

The swingOT 4:16 · LA · −47 pts of win probability. 92-H.Mevis 48 yard field goal is BLOCKED (15-G.Rousseau), Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans.

No. 3 · Week 5EarnedGame file →
Broncos logoBroncos33% success · −0.24 EPA/play
2317
Chargers logoChargers27% success · −0.35 EPA/play

Broncos earned it: the snaps said Broncos by 5.6, a deserved win probability of 84%.

Deserved marginDEN by 5.6
Real marginDEN by 6
Luck pts DEN+1.6
Luck pts LAC+0.1

The swingQ4 8:06 · LAC · −21 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 24 for -8 yards (99-Z.Allen). FUMBLES (99-Z.Allen) [99-Z.Allen], RECOVERED by DEN-51-Q.Robinson at LAC 23.

No. 4 · Week 5EarnedGame file →
Ravens logoRavens47% success · +0.10 EPA/play
3023
Falcons logoFalcons34% success · −0.05 EPA/play

Ravens earned it: the snaps said Ravens by 7.2, a deserved win probability of 91%.

Deserved marginBAL by 7.2
Real marginBAL by 7
Luck pts BAL−4.9
Luck pts ATL+2.3

The swingQ1 8:14 · BAL · −20 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews to BAL 34 for 9 yards (0-D.Deablo, 29-S.Brown). FUMBLES (29-S.Brown), RECOVERED by ATL-3-J.Bates at BAL 36. 3-J.Bates for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Luck Index

All 32 →

Bottom lineDenver Broncos: 7-2 with 4.1 deserved wins (+2.9). New York Jets: 2-7 with 4.5 (−2.5).

How to read this chart
One row per team;
the scale along the bottom counts wins.
Solid dot = real wins
(a tie counts as half). Gold ring = deserved wins: each game's deserved win probability added up, the record the team's snaps earned.
The line joins the two.
Red: the record is ahead of the play, and that gap usually closes (due to fall). Green: the record is behind the play (due to rise). Longer line, bigger gap.
The number on the right
is luck wins: real wins minus deserved wins.

Looking back, not ahead. Deserved wins grade how well a team has played, from every snap of the games already played. They are not a forecast of the games to come. How well they hold up

Real winsDeserved winsRecord ahead of the play: due to fallRecord behind the play: due to rise
Broncos logoDEN7-2+2.9 WBills logoBUF7-1+1.4 WLions logoDET6-2+1.3 WVikings logoMIN6-2+1.3 WSteelers logoPIT6-2+1.0 WChargers logoLAC0-8−1.0 WTexans logoHOU3-5−1.2 WRams logoLAR5-4−1.6 WBuccaneers logoTB3-6−1.7 WJets logoNYJ2-7−2.5 W
01234567

Season to date. Deserved wins add up each game's deserved win probability: a look back at games already played, not a forecast. The five records furthest ahead of the play, then the five furthest behind.

Flags that mattered

Ledger →

Bottom lineThe biggest here: Defensive Holding on LA in Week 5, worth +11 points of win probability to BUF.

How to read this chart
Each row is one flag:
the team in red was penalized, the team in green was helped.
The number on the right
is how much that flag moved the helped team's chance of winning, in points (100 = a whole game). When the play still counted, the play is included, so treat it as an upper bound.
Touchdown erased
marks a score wiped off by the flag, with the expected points it cost.
  1. 1Defensive HoldingLA → helped BUF · Wk 5 Q3 3:49 · (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right end to LA 4 for 9 yards (5-K.Kinchens). PENALTY on LA-30-J.Wallace, Defensive Holding, 2…+10.9 WP
  2. 2Intentional GroundingSF → helped SEA · Wk 5 Q4 12:31 · 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short middle [3-N.Emmanwori]. PENALTY on SF-13-B.Purdy, Intentional Grounding, 11 yards, enforced at…+10.3 WP
  3. 3Unnecessary RoughnessARI → helped DET · Wk 5 Q2 13:37 · (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 87-S.LaPorta to ARI 35 for 12 yards (29-D.Burke). PENALTY on ARI-1-Ma.Wilson,…+10.2 WP
  4. 4Face MaskWAS → helped NYG · Wk 5 OT 9:56 · (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short left to 44-C.Skattebo pushed ob at NYG 40 for 7 yards (29-R.Douglas). PENALTY on…+8.9 WP
  5. 5Defensive Pass InterferenceBUF → helped LA · Wk 5 Q3 10:18 · (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep middle to 89-T.Higbee [55-M.Hoecht]. PENALTY on BUF-24-C.Bishop, Defensive Pass…+8.6 WP

Coach on trial

Every fourth down →

Bottom lineThe calls against the model in this list cost 5.9 expected points in total.

How to read this chart
Each row is one fourth down:
distance, spot, score, what the coach chose and what our model would have done (a clear call, a lean or a toss-up).
The number on the right
is what the choice cost in expected points (EP, what a possession is worth on average from that spot): −1.00 means about a point thrown away. ✓ = the coach made the model's call.
The result
is what happened next; the grade judges the decision, not the outcome.
  1. 1NYJ · 4th & 1Aaron Glenn chose Punt at own 40, Wk 5 Q4 10:45, up 4. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.41 EP
  2. 2SF · 4th & 1Kyle Shanahan chose Punt at own 38, Wk 5 Q1 14:04, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.36 EP
  3. 3DEN · 4th & 1Sean Payton chose Field goal at opp 1, Wk 5 Q4 5:10, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: good.−1.16 EP
  4. 4LAC · 4th & 2Jim Harbaugh chose Punt at own 48, Wk 5 Q1 4:12, down 7. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.07 EP
  5. 5NYJ · 4th & 3Aaron Glenn chose Punt at opp 47, Wk 5 Q3 11:56, up 1. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−0.90 EP

Right call  Brave and right

  1. 1PIT · 4th & 1Mike McCarthy chose Go for it at own 49, Wk 5 Q3 7:54, up 1. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
  2. 2DEN · 4th & 1Sean Payton chose Go for it at own 44, Wk 5 Q2 5:19, up 4. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
  3. 3LAC · 4th & 1Jim Harbaugh chose Go for it at own 41, Wk 5 Q4 10:33, up 7. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: stopped.✓ EP

Garbage Time Tax

Full list →

Bottom lineQuentin Johnston: 160 of 260 yards (62%) came with the game decided.

How to read this chart
One bar per player,
as long as his season yards (passing, rushing or receiving).
Blue = yards with the game still alive.
Striped amber = garbage time: yards gained when the offense's chance of winning was already under 10% or over 90%, so the game was basically decided.
The percentage
is the garbage-time share of his yards (amber from 30% up).
Quentin JohnstonLAC · receiving · 260 yds62%
Jahan DotsonATL · receiving · 353 yds59%
Kenny GainwellTB · rushing · 305 yds49%
Emanuel WilsonSEA · rushing · 403 yds45%
Tyler AllgeierARI · rushing · 369 yds41%
Kyle MonangaiCHI · rushing · 324 yds40%

Season to date.

Our receipts

Every pick →
Week 510-5Brier 0.223 (a coin flip scores 0.250)
Season73-47Brier 0.240 · closing line 0.215

The Brier score measures how close our probabilities were to what happened: 0 is perfect, 0.250 is a coin flip, lower is better. We publish ours even when the betting market beats us.

Back issues

Week 915 games · 1 robbedWeek 814 games · 2 robbedWeek 714 games · 0 robbedWeek 614 games · 0 robbedWeek 515 games · 0 robbedWeek 416 games · 0 robbedWeek 316 games · 3 robbedWeek 216 games · 1 robbedWeek 116 games · 0 robbed
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