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The Verdict2026 · Week 6

Week 6The Verdict

14 games, re-judged from every snap. No result this week went against the play by our standard, though 4 were coin flips. Coaches faced 130 gradeable fourth downs and kicked away 15 the model said to go for. Our pregame picks went 7-7.

← Week 5Week 7 →Updated Nov 10, 6:29 AM ETHow we judge
Closest call of the weekSeahawks logoSEA 68%deserved win probability in a 17-14 gameLuckiest recordBroncos logoDEN +2.9 W7-2 real, 4.1 deserved · 6-0 in one-score gamesCostliest flag+24 WPUnnecessary Roughness on LA, 0:47 in the Q4Worst fourth-down call−2.03 EPDeMeco Ryans: kicked on 4th & 1 at opp 7

The cases

Every Week 6 game · most disputed first

Bottom lineNone of these 14 games went against the play; 4 were coin flips.

How to read this chart
Each card is one game.
Under each team: its success rate (share of snaps that kept the offense on schedule) and EPA per play (expected points added: how much each snap improved its scoring chances; 0 is average).
The split bar is the deserved win probability:
how often each team would win if the game were replayed from the same snaps. Away team on the left, home team on the right, 50-50 at the tick in the middle. The longer side played better.
The stamp is the ruling.
Earned: the winner also played better. Coin flip: the winner deserved it less than 60% of the time. Robbed: the loser deserved to win at least 70% of the time.
Luck pts
(full cards): real margin minus deserved margin; plus means the scoreboard was kinder than the play.
No. 1 · Week 6Coin flipGame file →
Seahawks logoSeahawks40% success · −0.07 EPA/play
1417
Broncos logoBroncos29% success · −0.17 EPA/play

Broncos won as the underdog of the snaps: 32%, with Seahawks better by 2.5.

Deserved marginSEA by 2.5
Real marginDEN by 3
Luck pts SEA−4.9
Luck pts DEN+5.2

The swingQ4 1:31 · SEA · −35 pts of win probability. (No Huddle) 14-S.Darnold pass short left intended for 15-T.Horton INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Abrams-Draine at DEN 31. 31-K.Abrams-Draine to DEN 31 for no gain (15-T.Horton).

No. 2 · Week 6Coin flipGame file →
Titans logoTitans39% success · −0.15 EPA/play
2620
Colts logoColts42% success · −0.07 EPA/play

Titans won as the underdog of the snaps: 37%, with Colts better by 1.9.

Deserved marginIND by 1.9
Real marginTEN by 6
Luck pts TEN+1.4
Luck pts IND−4.5

The swingQ4 10:25 · IND · −28 pts of win probability. 8-R.Sanchez punt is BLOCKED by 36-J.Chestnut, Center-46-L.Rhodes, RECOVERED by TEN-7-O.Oladejo at IND 14. 7-O.Oladejo for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND-8-R.Sanchez was injured during the play. PENALTY on TEN,…

No. 4 · Week 6Coin flipGame file →
Texans logoTexans48% success · +0.23 EPA/play
3431
Jaguars logoJaguars52% success · +0.17 EPA/play

Texans earned it: the snaps said Texans by 0.4, a deserved win probability of 53%.

Deserved marginHOU by 0.4
Real marginHOU by 3
Luck pts HOU−1.6
Luck pts JAX−0.9

The swingQ4 0:03 · HOU · +29 pts of win probability. 15-K.Fairbairn 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.

Luck Index

All 32 →

Bottom lineDenver Broncos: 7-2 with 4.1 deserved wins (+2.9). New York Jets: 2-7 with 4.5 (−2.5).

How to read this chart
One row per team;
the scale along the bottom counts wins.
Solid dot = real wins
(a tie counts as half). Gold ring = deserved wins: each game's deserved win probability added up, the record the team's snaps earned.
The line joins the two.
Red: the record is ahead of the play, and that gap usually closes (due to fall). Green: the record is behind the play (due to rise). Longer line, bigger gap.
The number on the right
is luck wins: real wins minus deserved wins.

Looking back, not ahead. Deserved wins grade how well a team has played, from every snap of the games already played. They are not a forecast of the games to come. How well they hold up

Real winsDeserved winsRecord ahead of the play: due to fallRecord behind the play: due to rise
Broncos logoDEN7-2+2.9 WBills logoBUF7-1+1.4 WLions logoDET6-2+1.3 WVikings logoMIN6-2+1.3 WSteelers logoPIT6-2+1.0 WChargers logoLAC0-8−1.0 WTexans logoHOU3-5−1.2 WRams logoLAR5-4−1.6 WBuccaneers logoTB3-6−1.7 WJets logoNYJ2-7−2.5 W
01234567

Season to date. Deserved wins add up each game's deserved win probability: a look back at games already played, not a forecast. The five records furthest ahead of the play, then the five furthest behind.

Flags that mattered

Ledger →

Bottom lineThe biggest here: Unnecessary Roughness on LA in Week 6, worth +24 points of win probability to ARI.

How to read this chart
Each row is one flag:
the team in red was penalized, the team in green was helped.
The number on the right
is how much that flag moved the helped team's chance of winning, in points (100 = a whole game). When the play still counted, the play is included, so treat it as an upper bound.
Touchdown erased
marks a score wiped off by the flag, with the expected points it cost.
  1. 1Unnecessary RoughnessLA → helped ARI · Wk 6 Q4 0:47 · (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep middle to 86-J.Brooks to LA 44 for 21 yards (30-J.Wallace). PENALTY on LA-30-J.Wallace,…+24.1 WP
  2. 2Illegal ContactSF → helped WAS · Wk 6 Q4 3:01 · (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels sacked at SF 40 for -11 yards (sack split by 94-R.Height and 53-J.Dugger). PENALTY on SF-24-A.Davis,…+18.8 WP
  3. 3Defensive Pass InterferenceTB → helped PIT · Wk 6 Q4 3:38 · (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left to 4-D.Metcalf. PENALTY on TB-25-J.Parrish, Defensive Pass Interference, 12…+15.4 WP
  4. 4Fair Catch InterferenceSF → helped WAS · Wk 6 Q4 1:00 · 15-C.Waitman punts 49 yards to WAS 31, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-L.McCaffrey. PENALTY on SF-33-S.Neal, Fair Catch…+12.0 WP
  5. 5Defensive Pass InterferenceIND → helped TEN · Wk 6 Q4 5:26 · 1-C.Ward pass incomplete deep left to 14-C.Tate (29-C.Taylor-Britt). ** Injury Update: IND-25-A.Haulcy has returned to the game.…+10.2 WP

Coach on trial

Every fourth down →

Bottom lineThe calls against the model in this list cost 7.8 expected points in total.

How to read this chart
Each row is one fourth down:
distance, spot, score, what the coach chose and what our model would have done (a clear call, a lean or a toss-up).
The number on the right
is what the choice cost in expected points (EP, what a possession is worth on average from that spot): −1.00 means about a point thrown away. ✓ = the coach made the model's call.
The result
is what happened next; the grade judges the decision, not the outcome.
  1. 1HOU · 4th & 1DeMeco Ryans chose Field goal at opp 7, Wk 6 Q2 4:18, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: good.−2.03 EP
  2. 2LA · 4th & 1Sean McVay chose Punt at own 44, Wk 6 Q1 13:44, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.52 EP
  3. 3TEN · 4th & 1Robert Saleh chose Punt at own 43, Wk 6 Q2 8:49, down 7. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.49 EP
  4. 4CAR · 4th & 1Dave Canales chose Punt at own 42, Wk 6 Q1 1:48, up 3. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.46 EP
  5. 5IND · 4th & 2Shane Steichen chose Field goal at opp 5, Wk 6 Q2 2:09, up 7. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: good.−1.31 EP

Right call  Brave and right

  1. 1NYG · 4th & 1John Harbaugh chose Go for it at opp 48, Wk 6 Q1 8:09, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
  2. 2NE · 4th & 1Mike Vrabel chose Go for it at own 48, Wk 6 Q2 5:15, up 4. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
  3. 3CLE · 4th & 1Todd Monken chose Go for it at own 37, Wk 6 Q3 12:41, down 10. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP

Garbage Time Tax

Full list →

Bottom lineQuentin Johnston: 160 of 260 yards (62%) came with the game decided.

How to read this chart
One bar per player,
as long as his season yards (passing, rushing or receiving).
Blue = yards with the game still alive.
Striped amber = garbage time: yards gained when the offense's chance of winning was already under 10% or over 90%, so the game was basically decided.
The percentage
is the garbage-time share of his yards (amber from 30% up).
Quentin JohnstonLAC · receiving · 260 yds62%
Jahan DotsonATL · receiving · 353 yds59%
Kenny GainwellTB · rushing · 305 yds49%
Emanuel WilsonSEA · rushing · 403 yds45%
Tyler AllgeierARI · rushing · 369 yds41%
Kyle MonangaiCHI · rushing · 324 yds40%

Season to date.

Our receipts

Every pick →
Week 67-7Brier 0.283 (a coin flip scores 0.250)
Season73-47Brier 0.240 · closing line 0.215

The Brier score measures how close our probabilities were to what happened: 0 is perfect, 0.250 is a coin flip, lower is better. We publish ours even when the betting market beats us.

Back issues

Week 915 games · 1 robbedWeek 814 games · 2 robbedWeek 714 games · 0 robbedWeek 614 games · 0 robbedWeek 515 games · 0 robbedWeek 416 games · 0 robbedWeek 316 games · 3 robbedWeek 216 games · 1 robbedWeek 116 games · 0 robbed
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