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The Verdict2026 · Week 1

Week 1The Verdict

16 games, re-judged from every snap. No result this week went against the play by our standard, though 2 were coin flips. Coaches faced 135 gradeable fourth downs and kicked away 26 the model said to go for.

Week 2 →Updated Nov 10, 6:29 AM ETHow we judge
Closest call of the weekTexans logoHOU 55%deserved win probability in a 36-31 gameLuckiest recordBroncos logoDEN +2.9 W7-2 real, 4.1 deserved · 6-0 in one-score gamesCostliest flag+15 WPDefensive Pass Interference on HOU, 4:13 in the Q2Worst fourth-down call−1.41 EPMike LaFleur: punted on 4th & 1 at own 40

The cases

Every Week 1 game · most disputed first

Bottom lineNone of these 16 games went against the play; 2 were coin flips.

How to read this chart
Each card is one game.
Under each team: its success rate (share of snaps that kept the offense on schedule) and EPA per play (expected points added: how much each snap improved its scoring chances; 0 is average).
The split bar is the deserved win probability:
how often each team would win if the game were replayed from the same snaps. Away team on the left, home team on the right, 50-50 at the tick in the middle. The longer side played better.
The stamp is the ruling.
Earned: the winner also played better. Coin flip: the winner deserved it less than 60% of the time. Robbed: the loser deserved to win at least 70% of the time.
Luck pts
(full cards): real margin minus deserved margin; plus means the scoreboard was kinder than the play.
No. 2 · Week 1Coin flipGame file →
Buccaneers logoBuccaneers47% success · +0.02 EPA/play
2733
Bengals logoBengals47% success · −0.00 EPA/play

Bengals earned it: the snaps said Bengals by 0.0, a deserved win probability of 50%.

Deserved marginCIN by 0.0
Real marginCIN by 6
Luck pts TB−10.9
Luck pts CIN+7.2

The swingQ1 6:29 · TB · −20 pts of win probability. (No Huddle) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at TB 25 for -8 yards (sack split by 99-M.Murphy and 49-B.Carter). FUMBLES (99-M.Murphy) [49-B.Carter], touched at TB 26, RECOVERED by CIN-44-D.Knight at TB 27. 44-D.Knight for 27 yards,…

No. 3 · Week 1EarnedGame file →
Commanders logoCommanders43% success · +0.02 EPA/play
2224
Eagles logoEagles35% success · +0.07 EPA/play

Eagles earned it: the snaps said Eagles by 2.6, a deserved win probability of 68%.

Deserved marginPHI by 2.6
Real marginPHI by 2
Luck pts WSH+1.5
Luck pts PHI0.0

The swingQ4 8:03 · PHI · +16 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts scrambles up the middle to WAS 47 for 22 yards (2-A.Robertson).

No. 4 · Week 1EarnedGame file →
Saints logoSaints42% success · −0.03 EPA/play
3031
Lions logoLions45% success · +0.02 EPA/play

Lions earned it: the snaps said Lions by 3.7, a deserved win probability of 75%.

Deserved marginDET by 3.7
Real marginDET by 1
Luck pts NO−0.3
Luck pts DET+1.2

The swingOT 1:34 · NO · −47 pts of win probability. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 6-T.Shough pass to 18-B.Lance is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.

Luck Index

All 32 →

Bottom lineDenver Broncos: 7-2 with 4.1 deserved wins (+2.9). New York Jets: 2-7 with 4.5 (−2.5).

How to read this chart
One row per team;
the scale along the bottom counts wins.
Solid dot = real wins
(a tie counts as half). Gold ring = deserved wins: each game's deserved win probability added up, the record the team's snaps earned.
The line joins the two.
Red: the record is ahead of the play, and that gap usually closes (due to fall). Green: the record is behind the play (due to rise). Longer line, bigger gap.
The number on the right
is luck wins: real wins minus deserved wins.

Looking back, not ahead. Deserved wins grade how well a team has played, from every snap of the games already played. They are not a forecast of the games to come. How well they hold up

Real winsDeserved winsRecord ahead of the play: due to fallRecord behind the play: due to rise
Broncos logoDEN7-2+2.9 WBills logoBUF7-1+1.4 WLions logoDET6-2+1.3 WVikings logoMIN6-2+1.3 WSteelers logoPIT6-2+1.0 WChargers logoLAC0-8−1.0 WTexans logoHOU3-5−1.2 WRams logoLAR5-4−1.6 WBuccaneers logoTB3-6−1.7 WJets logoNYJ2-7−2.5 W
01234567

Season to date. Deserved wins add up each game's deserved win probability: a look back at games already played, not a forecast. The five records furthest ahead of the play, then the five furthest behind.

Flags that mattered

Ledger →

Bottom lineThe biggest here: Defensive Pass Interference on HOU in Week 1, worth +15 points of win probability to BUF.

How to read this chart
Each row is one flag:
the team in red was penalized, the team in green was helped.
The number on the right
is how much that flag moved the helped team's chance of winning, in points (100 = a whole game). When the play still counted, the play is included, so treat it as an upper bound.
Touchdown erased
marks a score wiped off by the flag, with the expected points it cost.
  1. 1Defensive Pass InterferenceHOU → helped BUF · Wk 1 Q2 4:13 · 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to 2-D.Moore (3-K.Lassiter). PENALTY on HOU-3-K.Lassiter, Defensive Pass Interference, 46…+14.8 WP
  2. 2Defensive Pass InterferenceATL → helped PIT · Wk 1 Q2 14:24 · (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 14-R.Wilson. PENALTY on ATL-24-Aj.Terrell, Defensive Pass Interference, 37…+14.4 WP
  3. 3Illegal Blindside BlockBUF → helped HOU · Wk 1 Q3 13:19 · 38-K.Kroeger punts 48 yards to BUF 28, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 19-G.Dortch pushed ob at BUF 36 for 8 yards (8-C.Stover;…+9.3 WP
  4. 4Unnecessary RoughnessDAL → helped NYG · Wk 1 Q1 9:38 · (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart left end ran ob at DAL 37 for 22 yards (0-D.Overshown). PENALTY on DAL-0-D.Overshown, Unnecessary Roughness,…+9.0 WP
  5. 5Ineligible Downfield PassNE → helped SEA · Wk 1 Q4 3:03 · (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on NE-75-A.Vera-Tucker, Ineligible Downfield Pass, 5 yards, enforced at…+8.6 WP

Coach on trial

Every fourth down →

Bottom lineThe calls against the model in this list cost 6.3 expected points in total.

How to read this chart
Each row is one fourth down:
distance, spot, score, what the coach chose and what our model would have done (a clear call, a lean or a toss-up).
The number on the right
is what the choice cost in expected points (EP, what a possession is worth on average from that spot): −1.00 means about a point thrown away. ✓ = the coach made the model's call.
The result
is what happened next; the grade judges the decision, not the outcome.
  1. 1ARI · 4th & 1Mike LaFleur chose Punt at own 40, Wk 1 Q4 14:04, up 2. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.41 EP
  2. 2DEN · 4th & 1Sean Payton chose Punt at own 32, Wk 1 Q2 4:50, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.25 EP
  3. 3WAS · 4th & 1Dan Quinn chose Punt at own 31, Wk 1 Q1 2:49, up 3. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.24 EP
  4. 4SEA · 4th & 1Mike Macdonald chose Punt at own 30, Wk 1 Q1 4:42, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.23 EP
  5. 5LA · 4th & 1Sean McVay chose Punt at own 26, Wk 1 Q1 13:38, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.18 EP

Right call  Brave and right

  1. 1SEA · 4th & 1Mike Macdonald chose Go for it at opp 45, Wk 1 Q4 11:38, down 7. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: touchdown.✓ EP
  2. 2KC · 4th & 1Andy Reid chose Go for it at own 40, Wk 1 Q3 12:53, up 7. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: touchdown.✓ EP
  3. 3HOU · 4th & 1DeMeco Ryans chose Go for it at own 37, Wk 1 Q3 2:50, down 6. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP

Garbage Time Tax

Full list →

Bottom lineQuentin Johnston: 160 of 260 yards (62%) came with the game decided.

How to read this chart
One bar per player,
as long as his season yards (passing, rushing or receiving).
Blue = yards with the game still alive.
Striped amber = garbage time: yards gained when the offense's chance of winning was already under 10% or over 90%, so the game was basically decided.
The percentage
is the garbage-time share of his yards (amber from 30% up).
Quentin JohnstonLAC · receiving · 260 yds62%
Jahan DotsonATL · receiving · 353 yds59%
Kenny GainwellTB · rushing · 305 yds49%
Emanuel WilsonSEA · rushing · 403 yds45%
Tyler AllgeierARI · rushing · 369 yds41%
Kyle MonangaiCHI · rushing · 324 yds40%

Season to date.

Our receipts

Every pick →
Week 1–No graded picks
Season73-47Brier 0.240 · closing line 0.215

The Brier score measures how close our probabilities were to what happened: 0 is perfect, 0.250 is a coin flip, lower is better. We publish ours even when the betting market beats us.

Back issues

Week 915 games · 1 robbedWeek 814 games · 2 robbedWeek 714 games · 0 robbedWeek 614 games · 0 robbedWeek 515 games · 0 robbedWeek 416 games · 0 robbedWeek 316 games · 3 robbedWeek 216 games · 1 robbedWeek 116 games · 0 robbed
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