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The Verdict2026 · Week 2

Week 2The Verdict

16 games, re-judged from every snap. 1 result the play did not support, 2 more that were coin flips. Coaches faced 151 gradeable fourth downs and kicked away 20 the model said to go for. Our pregame picks went 6-10.

← Week 1Week 3 →Updated Nov 10, 8:54 AM ETHow we judge
Robbery of the weekJets logoNYJ 85%deserved win probability in a 20-17 lossLuckiest recordBroncos logoDEN +2.9 W7-2 real, 4.1 deserved · 6-0 in one-score gamesCostliest flag+24 WPUnnecessary Roughness on NYJ, 6:17 in the OTWorst fourth-down call−1.34 EPJesse Minter: punted on 4th & 1 at own 37

The cases

Every Week 2 game · most disputed first

Bottom line1 of these 16 games went against the play. The biggest: GB @ NYJ, where the Jets lost with a 85% deserved win probability. 2 more were coin flips.

How to read this chart
Each card is one game.
Under each team: its success rate (share of snaps that kept the offense on schedule) and EPA per play (expected points added: how much each snap improved its scoring chances; 0 is average).
The split bar is the deserved win probability:
how often each team would win if the game were replayed from the same snaps. Away team on the left, home team on the right, 50-50 at the tick in the middle. The longer side played better.
The stamp is the ruling.
Earned: the winner also played better. Coin flip: the winner deserved it less than 60% of the time. Robbed: the loser deserved to win at least 70% of the time.
Luck pts
(full cards): real margin minus deserved margin; plus means the scoreboard was kinder than the play.
No. 1 · Week 2RobbedGame file →
Packers logoPackers32% success · −0.27 EPA/play
2017
Jets logoJets38% success · −0.10 EPA/play

Jets played like a 5.7-point better team. A team that plays like that wins 85% of the time. Jets lost.

Deserved marginNYJ by 5.7
Real marginGB by 3
Luck pts GB+1.4
Luck pts NYJ−2.0

The swingQ4 4:49 · NYJ · −26 pts of win probability. 14-A.McNamara punts 51 yards to GB 18, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 23-S.Moore pushed ob at NYJ 19 for 63 yards (82-A.Smith).

No. 2 · Week 2Coin flipGame file →
Eagles logoEagles40% success · +0.04 EPA/play
2420
Titans logoTitans43% success · +0.03 EPA/play

Eagles earned it: the snaps said Eagles by 0.1, a deserved win probability of 51%.

Deserved marginPHI by 0.1
Real marginPHI by 4
Luck pts PHI−0.5
Luck pts TEN−1.4

The swingQ4 0:14 · PHI · +37 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 80-D.Cooper for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

No. 3 · Week 2Coin flipGame file →
Saints logoSaints45% success · +0.14 EPA/play
2417
Ravens logoRavens64% success · +0.12 EPA/play

Saints earned it: the snaps said Saints by 0.9, a deserved win probability of 57%.

Deserved marginNO by 0.9
Real marginNO by 7
Luck pts NO+3.4
Luck pts BAL−3.3

The swingQ4 2:03 · NO · +18 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to BAL 5 for 25 yards (21-J.Hawkins). PENALTY on BAL-91-T.Hendrickson, Roughing the Passer, 3 yards, enforced at BAL 5.

No. 4 · Week 2EarnedGame file →
Vikings logoVikings33% success · −0.06 EPA/play
93
Bears logoBears32% success · −0.14 EPA/play

Vikings earned it: the snaps said Vikings by 4.1, a deserved win probability of 77%.

Deserved marginMIN by 4.1
Real marginMIN by 6
Luck pts MIN+4.3
Luck pts CHI−3.2

The swingQ4 6:26 · CHI · −25 pts of win probability. 8-C.Santos 23 yard field goal is BLOCKED (2-I.Rodgers), Center-45-B.Gardner, Holder-19-T.Taylor, recovered by CHI-19-T.Taylor at MIN 12.

Luck Index

All 32 →

Bottom lineDenver Broncos: 7-2 with 4.1 deserved wins (+2.9). New York Jets: 2-7 with 4.5 (−2.5).

How to read this chart
One row per team;
the scale along the bottom counts wins.
Solid dot = real wins
(a tie counts as half). Gold ring = deserved wins: each game's deserved win probability added up, the record the team's snaps earned.
The line joins the two.
Red: the record is ahead of the play, and that gap usually closes (due to fall). Green: the record is behind the play (due to rise). Longer line, bigger gap.
The number on the right
is luck wins: real wins minus deserved wins.

Looking back, not ahead. Deserved wins grade how well a team has played, from every snap of the games already played. They are not a forecast of the games to come. How well they hold up

Real winsDeserved winsRecord ahead of the play: due to fallRecord behind the play: due to rise
Broncos logoDEN7-2+2.9 WBills logoBUF7-1+1.4 WLions logoDET6-2+1.3 WVikings logoMIN6-2+1.3 WSteelers logoPIT6-2+1.0 WChargers logoLAC0-8−1.0 WTexans logoHOU3-5−1.2 WRams logoLAR5-4−1.6 WBuccaneers logoTB3-6−1.7 WJets logoNYJ2-7−2.5 W
01234567

Season to date. Deserved wins add up each game's deserved win probability: a look back at games already played, not a forecast. The five records furthest ahead of the play, then the five furthest behind.

Flags that mattered

Ledger →

Bottom lineThe biggest here: Unnecessary Roughness on NYJ in Week 2, worth +24 points of win probability to GB.

How to read this chart
Each row is one flag:
the team in red was penalized, the team in green was helped.
The number on the right
is how much that flag moved the helped team's chance of winning, in points (100 = a whole game). When the play still counted, the play is included, so treat it as an upper bound.
Touchdown erased
marks a score wiped off by the flag, with the expected points it cost.
  1. 1Unnecessary RoughnessNYJ → helped GB · Wk 2 OT 6:17 · (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 30-C.Brooks pushed ob at NYJ 37 for 15 yards (2-J.Brownlee). PENALTY on…+23.9 WP
  2. 2Roughing the PasserBAL → helped NO · Wk 2 Q4 2:03 · (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to BAL 5 for 25 yards (21-J.Hawkins). PENALTY on BAL-91-T.Hendrickson,…+18.2 WP
  3. 3Defensive Too Many Men on FieldLV → helped LAC · Wk 2 Q4 3:52 · (Run formation) PENALTY on LV, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, 6 yards, enforced at LAC 46 - No Play.+17.8 WP
  4. 4Offensive HoldingTB → helped CLE · Wk 2 Q4 0:45 · (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short right to 17-T.Hurst. PENALTY on TB-62-G.Barton, Offensive Holding, 10 yards,…+10.7 WP
  5. 5Defensive Pass InterferenceKC → helped IND · Wk 2 Q2 11:18 · 67-L.Tenuta reported in as eligible. 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep left to 13-L.Treadwell [56-G.Karlaftis]. PENALTY on…+9.6 WP

Coach on trial

Every fourth down →

Bottom lineThe calls against the model in this list cost 6.2 expected points in total.

How to read this chart
Each row is one fourth down:
distance, spot, score, what the coach chose and what our model would have done (a clear call, a lean or a toss-up).
The number on the right
is what the choice cost in expected points (EP, what a possession is worth on average from that spot): −1.00 means about a point thrown away. ✓ = the coach made the model's call.
The result
is what happened next; the grade judges the decision, not the outcome.
  1. 1BAL · 4th & 1Jesse Minter chose Punt at own 37, Wk 2 Q4 8:14, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.34 EP
  2. 2HOU · 4th & 1DeMeco Ryans chose Field goal at opp 40, Wk 2 Q3 7:33, down 7. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: missed.−1.31 EP
  3. 3LV · 4th & 1Klint Kubiak chose Punt at own 26, Wk 2 Q4 6:54, up 3. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.18 EP
  4. 4ARI · 4th & 2Mike LaFleur chose Punt at opp 49, Wk 2 Q1 13:30, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.18 EP
  5. 5MIN · 4th & 1Kevin O'Connell chose Punt at own 21, Wk 2 Q4 13:04, up 3. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.15 EP

Right call  Brave and right

  1. 1KC · 4th & 1Andy Reid chose Go for it at opp 48, Wk 2 Q3 12:01, down 3. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
  2. 2IND · 4th & 1Shane Steichen chose Go for it at opp 49, Wk 2 Q1 2:27, down 3. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
  3. 3NO · 4th & 1Kellen Moore chose Go for it at opp 44, Wk 2 Q4 5:41, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP

Garbage Time Tax

Full list →

Bottom lineQuentin Johnston: 160 of 260 yards (62%) came with the game decided.

How to read this chart
One bar per player,
as long as his season yards (passing, rushing or receiving).
Blue = yards with the game still alive.
Striped amber = garbage time: yards gained when the offense's chance of winning was already under 10% or over 90%, so the game was basically decided.
The percentage
is the garbage-time share of his yards (amber from 30% up).
Quentin JohnstonLAC · receiving · 260 yds62%
Jahan DotsonATL · receiving · 353 yds59%
Kenny GainwellTB · rushing · 305 yds49%
Emanuel WilsonSEA · rushing · 403 yds45%
Tyler AllgeierARI · rushing · 369 yds41%
Kyle MonangaiCHI · rushing · 324 yds40%

Season to date.

Our receipts

Every pick →
Week 26-10Brier 0.319 (a coin flip scores 0.250)
Season73-47Brier 0.240 · closing line 0.215

The Brier score measures how close our probabilities were to what happened: 0 is perfect, 0.250 is a coin flip, lower is better. We publish ours even when the betting market beats us.

Back issues

Week 915 games · 1 robbedWeek 814 games · 2 robbedWeek 714 games · 0 robbedWeek 614 games · 0 robbedWeek 515 games · 0 robbedWeek 416 games · 0 robbedWeek 316 games · 3 robbedWeek 216 games · 1 robbedWeek 116 games · 0 robbed
Cite thisPigskin Nightly, "The Verdict, Week 2", https://pigskinnightly.com/verdict/week/2 (2026)CC BY 4.0Data licenseCSVJSONEmbedHow it works