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The Verdict2026 · Week 7

Week 7The Verdict

14 games, re-judged from every snap. No result this week went against the play by our standard, though 2 were coin flips. Coaches faced 125 gradeable fourth downs and kicked away 14 the model said to go for. Our pregame picks went 8-6.

← Week 6Week 8 →Updated Nov 10, 6:29 AM ETHow we judge
Closest call of the weekPackers logoGB 58%deserved win probability in a 20-17 gameLuckiest recordBroncos logoDEN +2.9 W7-2 real, 4.1 deserved · 6-0 in one-score gamesCostliest flag+18 WPRoughing the Passer on NYJ, 4:55 in the Q4Worst fourth-down call−1.30 EPJohn Harbaugh: punted on 4th & 13 at opp 37

The cases

Every Week 7 game · most disputed first

Bottom lineNone of these 14 games went against the play; 2 were coin flips.

How to read this chart
Each card is one game.
Under each team: its success rate (share of snaps that kept the offense on schedule) and EPA per play (expected points added: how much each snap improved its scoring chances; 0 is average).
The split bar is the deserved win probability:
how often each team would win if the game were replayed from the same snaps. Away team on the left, home team on the right, 50-50 at the tick in the middle. The longer side played better.
The stamp is the ruling.
Earned: the winner also played better. Coin flip: the winner deserved it less than 60% of the time. Robbed: the loser deserved to win at least 70% of the time.
Luck pts
(full cards): real margin minus deserved margin; plus means the scoreboard was kinder than the play.
No. 1 · Week 7Coin flipGame file →
Packers logoPackers34% success · +0.04 EPA/play
1720
Lions logoLions52% success · −0.00 EPA/play

Lions won a coin flip: the snaps had it 42% for Lions.

Deserved marginGB by 1.1
Real marginDET by 3
Luck pts GB+1.8
Luck pts DET+3.0

The swingQ3 14:16 · DET · −17 pts of win probability. 16-J.Goff FUMBLES (Aborted) at DET 41, touched at DET 41, RECOVERED by GB-58-I.McDuffie at DET 42.

No. 2 · Week 7Coin flipGame file →
Colts logoColts44% success · −0.11 EPA/play
1016
Vikings logoVikings37% success · −0.12 EPA/play

Vikings earned it: the snaps said Vikings by 1.0, a deserved win probability of 57%.

Deserved marginMIN by 1.0
Real marginMIN by 6
Luck pts IND+0.1
Luck pts MIN+3.8

The swingQ4 15:00 · MIN · +19 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray scrambles right tackle pushed ob at IND 5 for 35 yards (0-C.Bynum). IND-29-C.Taylor-Britt was injured during the play.

No. 3 · Week 7EarnedGame file →
Dolphins logoDolphins50% success · +0.28 EPA/play
2825
Jets logoJets53% success · +0.27 EPA/play

Dolphins earned it: the snaps said Dolphins by 1.6, a deserved win probability of 62%.

Deserved marginMIA by 1.6
Real marginMIA by 3
Luck pts MIA+2.5
Luck pts NYJ−0.2

The swingQ4 4:55 · MIA · +18 pts of win probability. 2-M.Willis pass short left to 7-C.Douglas for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on NYJ-21-B.Stephens, Roughing the Passer, 8 yards, enforced between downs.

No. 4 · Week 7EarnedGame file →
49ers logo49ers56% success · +0.01 EPA/play
2029
Falcons logoFalcons48% success · +0.04 EPA/play

Falcons earned it: the snaps said Falcons by 2.3, a deserved win probability of 66%.

Deserved marginATL by 2.3
Real marginATL by 9
Luck pts SF−3.8
Luck pts ATL+5.0

The swingQ2 4:24 · SF · −15 pts of win probability. 26-K.Black up the middle to ATL 29 for -1 yards (92-M.Smith). FUMBLES (92-M.Smith), touched at ATL 29, RECOVERED by ATL-95-G.Dexter at ATL 29.

Luck Index

All 32 →

Bottom lineDenver Broncos: 7-2 with 4.1 deserved wins (+2.9). New York Jets: 2-7 with 4.5 (−2.5).

How to read this chart
One row per team;
the scale along the bottom counts wins.
Solid dot = real wins
(a tie counts as half). Gold ring = deserved wins: each game's deserved win probability added up, the record the team's snaps earned.
The line joins the two.
Red: the record is ahead of the play, and that gap usually closes (due to fall). Green: the record is behind the play (due to rise). Longer line, bigger gap.
The number on the right
is luck wins: real wins minus deserved wins.

Looking back, not ahead. Deserved wins grade how well a team has played, from every snap of the games already played. They are not a forecast of the games to come. How well they hold up

Real winsDeserved winsRecord ahead of the play: due to fallRecord behind the play: due to rise
Broncos logoDEN7-2+2.9 WBills logoBUF7-1+1.4 WLions logoDET6-2+1.3 WVikings logoMIN6-2+1.3 WSteelers logoPIT6-2+1.0 WChargers logoLAC0-8−1.0 WTexans logoHOU3-5−1.2 WRams logoLAR5-4−1.6 WBuccaneers logoTB3-6−1.7 WJets logoNYJ2-7−2.5 W
01234567

Season to date. Deserved wins add up each game's deserved win probability: a look back at games already played, not a forecast. The five records furthest ahead of the play, then the five furthest behind.

Flags that mattered

Ledger →

Bottom lineThe biggest here: Roughing the Passer on NYJ in Week 7, worth +18 points of win probability to MIA.

How to read this chart
Each row is one flag:
the team in red was penalized, the team in green was helped.
The number on the right
is how much that flag moved the helped team's chance of winning, in points (100 = a whole game). When the play still counted, the play is included, so treat it as an upper bound.
Touchdown erased
marks a score wiped off by the flag, with the expected points it cost.
  1. 1Roughing the PasserNYJ → helped MIA · Wk 7 Q4 4:55 · 2-M.Willis pass short left to 7-C.Douglas for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on NYJ-21-B.Stephens, Roughing the Passer, 8 yards,…+17.6 WP
  2. 2Roughing the PasserGB → helped DET · Wk 7 Q4 2:45 · (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 87-S.LaPorta to DET 45 for 18 yards (29-X.McKinney; 58-I.McDuffie). PENALTY on…+14.1 WP
  3. 3Defensive Pass InterferenceLA → helped LV · Wk 7 Q1 11:44 · (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep middle to 1-T.Tucker. PENALTY on LA-30-J.Wallace, Defensive Pass Interference, 39…+8.1 WP
  4. 4Unsportsmanlike ConductCAR → helped TB · Wk 7 Q2 9:09 · 10-R.Fitzgerald extra point is Blocked (23-T.Smith), Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin. DEFENSIVE TWO-POINT ATTEMPT.…+8.0 WP
  5. 5Offensive Pass InterferenceDEN → helped ARI · Wk 7 Q1 11:19 · 10-B.Nix pass short right to 12-R.Harvey to ARI 1 for 19 yards (42-D.Taylor-Demerson). PENALTY on DEN-82-A.Trautman, Offensive…+7.8 WP

Coach on trial

Every fourth down →

Bottom lineThe calls against the model in this list cost 5.4 expected points in total.

How to read this chart
Each row is one fourth down:
distance, spot, score, what the coach chose and what our model would have done (a clear call, a lean or a toss-up).
The number on the right
is what the choice cost in expected points (EP, what a possession is worth on average from that spot): −1.00 means about a point thrown away. ✓ = the coach made the model's call.
The result
is what happened next; the grade judges the decision, not the outcome.
  1. 1NYG · 4th & 13John Harbaugh chose Punt at opp 37, Wk 7 Q3 10:13, tied. Model: Field goal (clear call). Result: punted.−1.30 EP
  2. 2DEN · 4th & 1Sean Payton chose Punt at own 24, Wk 7 Q2 12:32, up 3. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.17 EP
  3. 3HOU · 4th & 1DeMeco Ryans chose Punt at own 23, Wk 7 Q3 8:12, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.16 EP
  4. 4ARI · 4th & 2Mike LaFleur chose Punt at own 43, Wk 7 Q2 2:13, down 7. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−0.91 EP
  5. 5KC · 4th & 4Andy Reid chose Punt at opp 42, Wk 7 Q1 1:54, tied. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.87 EP

Right call  Brave and right

  1. 1MIA · 4th & 1Jeff Hafley chose Go for it at opp 2, Wk 7 Q1 1:46, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
  2. 2IND · 4th & 1Shane Steichen chose Go for it at opp 45, Wk 7 Q2 4:46, up 1. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
  3. 3KC · 4th & 1Andy Reid chose Go for it at opp 49, Wk 7 Q2 6:49, down 3. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP

Garbage Time Tax

Full list →

Bottom lineQuentin Johnston: 160 of 260 yards (62%) came with the game decided.

How to read this chart
One bar per player,
as long as his season yards (passing, rushing or receiving).
Blue = yards with the game still alive.
Striped amber = garbage time: yards gained when the offense's chance of winning was already under 10% or over 90%, so the game was basically decided.
The percentage
is the garbage-time share of his yards (amber from 30% up).
Quentin JohnstonLAC · receiving · 260 yds62%
Jahan DotsonATL · receiving · 353 yds59%
Kenny GainwellTB · rushing · 305 yds49%
Emanuel WilsonSEA · rushing · 403 yds45%
Tyler AllgeierARI · rushing · 369 yds41%
Kyle MonangaiCHI · rushing · 324 yds40%

Season to date.

Our receipts

Every pick →
Week 78-6Brier 0.294 (a coin flip scores 0.250)
Season73-47Brier 0.240 · closing line 0.215

The Brier score measures how close our probabilities were to what happened: 0 is perfect, 0.250 is a coin flip, lower is better. We publish ours even when the betting market beats us.

Back issues

Week 915 games · 1 robbedWeek 814 games · 2 robbedWeek 714 games · 0 robbedWeek 614 games · 0 robbedWeek 515 games · 0 robbedWeek 416 games · 0 robbedWeek 316 games · 3 robbedWeek 216 games · 1 robbedWeek 116 games · 0 robbed
Cite thisPigskin Nightly, "The Verdict, Week 7", https://pigskinnightly.com/verdict/week/7 (2026)CC BY 4.0Data licenseCSVJSONEmbedHow it works