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The Verdict2026 · Week 8

Week 8The Verdict

14 games, re-judged from every snap. 2 results the play did not support. Coaches faced 133 gradeable fourth downs and kicked away 18 the model said to go for. Our pregame picks went 9-5.

← Week 7Week 9 →Updated Nov 10, 6:29 AM ETHow we judge
Robbery of the weekJets logoNYJ 71%deserved win probability in a 38-33 lossLuckiest recordBroncos logoDEN +2.9 W7-2 real, 4.1 deserved · 6-0 in one-score gamesCostliest flag+14 WPUnnecessary Roughness on ATL, 7:35 in the Q1Worst fourth-down call−1.15 EPKevin Stefanski: punted on 4th & 1 at own 16

The cases

Every Week 8 game · most disputed first

Bottom line2 of these 14 games went against the play. The biggest: LV @ NYJ, where the Jets lost with a 71% deserved win probability.

How to read this chart
Each card is one game.
Under each team: its success rate (share of snaps that kept the offense on schedule) and EPA per play (expected points added: how much each snap improved its scoring chances; 0 is average).
The split bar is the deserved win probability:
how often each team would win if the game were replayed from the same snaps. Away team on the left, home team on the right, 50-50 at the tick in the middle. The longer side played better.
The stamp is the ruling.
Earned: the winner also played better. Coin flip: the winner deserved it less than 60% of the time. Robbed: the loser deserved to win at least 70% of the time.
Luck pts
(full cards): real margin minus deserved margin; plus means the scoreboard was kinder than the play.
No. 1 · Week 8RobbedGame file →
Raiders logoRaiders50% success · +0.21 EPA/play
3833
Jets logoJets51% success · +0.25 EPA/play

Jets played like a 3.1-point better team. A team that plays like that wins 71% of the time. Jets lost.

Deserved marginNYJ by 3.1
Real marginLV by 5
Luck pts LV−0.8
Luck pts NYJ−1.2

The swingQ4 6:11 · NYJ · +19 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left to 15-A.Mitchell to LV 13 for 47 yards (31-T.Stukes).

No. 2 · Week 8RobbedGame file →
Chiefs logoChiefs49% success · +0.15 EPA/play
2428
Broncos logoBroncos43% success · +0.09 EPA/play

Chiefs played like a 3.1-point better team. A team that plays like that wins 71% of the time. Chiefs lost.

Deserved marginKC by 3.1
Real marginDEN by 4
Luck pts KC−0.8
Luck pts DEN+1.4

The swingQ4 0:04 · KC · −38 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at DEN 12 for -6 yards (97-M.Roach).

No. 3 · Week 8EarnedGame file →
Vikings logoVikings46% success · −0.09 EPA/play
1519
Lions logoLions48% success · −0.05 EPA/play

Lions earned it: the snaps said Lions by 2.0, a deserved win probability of 64%.

Deserved marginDET by 2.0
Real marginDET by 4
Luck pts MIN+2.1
Luck pts DET+1.8

The swingQ4 10:16 · MIN · +16 pts of win probability. 1-K.Murray pass deep middle to 3-J.Addison to DET 10 for 51 yards (30-K.Dorsey).

No. 4 · Week 8EarnedGame file →
Titans logoTitans50% success · +0.16 EPA/play
3643
Bengals logoBengals58% success · +0.19 EPA/play

Bengals earned it: the snaps said Bengals by 2.2, a deserved win probability of 65%.

Deserved marginCIN by 2.2
Real marginCIN by 7
Luck pts TEN+1.4
Luck pts CIN−2.4

The swingQ4 13:40 · CIN · −27 pts of win probability. 30-C.Brown up the middle to CIN 46 for -3 yards (24-A.Taylor). FUMBLES (24-A.Taylor), RECOVERED by TEN-23-K.Winston at CIN 48. The Replay Official reviewed the loose ball recovery ruling, and the play was Upheld. The…

Luck Index

All 32 →

Bottom lineDenver Broncos: 7-2 with 4.1 deserved wins (+2.9). New York Jets: 2-7 with 4.5 (−2.5).

How to read this chart
One row per team;
the scale along the bottom counts wins.
Solid dot = real wins
(a tie counts as half). Gold ring = deserved wins: each game's deserved win probability added up, the record the team's snaps earned.
The line joins the two.
Red: the record is ahead of the play, and that gap usually closes (due to fall). Green: the record is behind the play (due to rise). Longer line, bigger gap.
The number on the right
is luck wins: real wins minus deserved wins.

Looking back, not ahead. Deserved wins grade how well a team has played, from every snap of the games already played. They are not a forecast of the games to come. How well they hold up

Real winsDeserved winsRecord ahead of the play: due to fallRecord behind the play: due to rise
Broncos logoDEN7-2+2.9 WBills logoBUF7-1+1.4 WLions logoDET6-2+1.3 WVikings logoMIN6-2+1.3 WSteelers logoPIT6-2+1.0 WChargers logoLAC0-8−1.0 WTexans logoHOU3-5−1.2 WRams logoLAR5-4−1.6 WBuccaneers logoTB3-6−1.7 WJets logoNYJ2-7−2.5 W
01234567

Season to date. Deserved wins add up each game's deserved win probability: a look back at games already played, not a forecast. The five records furthest ahead of the play, then the five furthest behind.

Flags that mattered

Ledger →

Bottom lineThe biggest here: Unnecessary Roughness on ATL in Week 8, worth +14 points of win probability to TB.

How to read this chart
Each row is one flag:
the team in red was penalized, the team in green was helped.
The number on the right
is how much that flag moved the helped team's chance of winning, in points (100 = a whole game). When the play still counted, the play is included, so treat it as an upper bound.
Touchdown erased
marks a score wiped off by the flag, with the expected points it cost.
  1. 1Unnecessary RoughnessATL → helped TB · Wk 8 Q1 7:35 · 9-M.Penix pass short right intended for 5-D.London INTERCEPTED by 34-A.Anzalone at ATL 41. 34-A.Anzalone to ATL 33 for 8 yards…+14.1 WP
  2. 2Defensive Pass InterferenceCAR → helped GB · Wk 8 Q1 8:14 · (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep middle to 0-M.Golden. PENALTY on CAR-24-W.Lee, Defensive Pass Interference, 17 yards,…+11.4 WP
  3. 3Unnecessary RoughnessLV → helped NYJ · Wk 8 Q4 0:20 · (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 5-G.Wilson to 50 for 15 yards (11-J.Chinn). PENALTY on LV-11-J.Chinn, Unnecessary…+10.9 WP
  4. 4Roughing the PasserBUF → helped BAL · Wk 8 Q3 14:06 · (Shotgun) 12-J.Fagnano pass deep right to 7-R.Bateman to BUF 43 for 22 yards (3-D.Hamlin). PENALTY on BUF-91-E.Oliver, Roughing…+7.9 WP
  5. 5Roughing the PasserMIN → helped DET · Wk 8 Q1 12:07 · (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep left to 14-A.St. Brown. PENALTY on MIN-50-L.Rodriguez, Roughing the Passer,…+7.9 WP

Coach on trial

Every fourth down →

Bottom lineThe calls against the model in this list cost 4.5 expected points in total.

How to read this chart
Each row is one fourth down:
distance, spot, score, what the coach chose and what our model would have done (a clear call, a lean or a toss-up).
The number on the right
is what the choice cost in expected points (EP, what a possession is worth on average from that spot): −1.00 means about a point thrown away. ✓ = the coach made the model's call.
The result
is what happened next; the grade judges the decision, not the outcome.
  1. 1ATL · 4th & 1Kevin Stefanski chose Punt at own 16, Wk 8 Q3 11:24, down 9. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.15 EP
  2. 2DEN · 4th & 2Sean Payton chose Punt at own 42, Wk 8 Q1 4:37, down 4. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−0.89 EP
  3. 3ATL · 4th & 6Kevin Stefanski chose Go for it at opp 32, Wk 8 Q2 12:39, down 6. Model: Field goal (clear call). Result: stopped.−0.83 EP
  4. 4CIN · 4th & 2Zac Taylor chose Punt at own 39, Wk 8 Q1 9:40, down 3. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−0.81 EP
  5. 5MIN · 4th & 5Kevin O'Connell chose Go for it at opp 25, Wk 8 Q4 14:34, down 5. Model: Field goal (clear call). Result: stopped.−0.79 EP

Right call  Brave and right

  1. 1LV · 4th & 1Klint Kubiak chose Go for it at opp 46, Wk 8 Q2 3:58, down 6. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: stopped.✓ EP
  2. 2ARI · 4th & 1Mike LaFleur chose Go for it at opp 44, Wk 8 Q2 14:26, down 7. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
  3. 3DAL · 4th & 1Brian Schottenheimer chose Go for it at midfield, Wk 8 Q3 9:56, up 11. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP

Garbage Time Tax

Full list →

Bottom lineQuentin Johnston: 160 of 260 yards (62%) came with the game decided.

How to read this chart
One bar per player,
as long as his season yards (passing, rushing or receiving).
Blue = yards with the game still alive.
Striped amber = garbage time: yards gained when the offense's chance of winning was already under 10% or over 90%, so the game was basically decided.
The percentage
is the garbage-time share of his yards (amber from 30% up).
Quentin JohnstonLAC · receiving · 260 yds62%
Jahan DotsonATL · receiving · 353 yds59%
Kenny GainwellTB · rushing · 305 yds49%
Emanuel WilsonSEA · rushing · 403 yds45%
Tyler AllgeierARI · rushing · 369 yds41%
Kyle MonangaiCHI · rushing · 324 yds40%

Season to date.

Our receipts

Every pick →
Week 89-5Brier 0.207 (a coin flip scores 0.250)
Season73-47Brier 0.240 · closing line 0.215

The Brier score measures how close our probabilities were to what happened: 0 is perfect, 0.250 is a coin flip, lower is better. We publish ours even when the betting market beats us.

Back issues

Week 915 games · 1 robbedWeek 814 games · 2 robbedWeek 714 games · 0 robbedWeek 614 games · 0 robbedWeek 515 games · 0 robbedWeek 416 games · 0 robbedWeek 316 games · 3 robbedWeek 216 games · 1 robbedWeek 116 games · 0 robbed
Cite thisPigskin Nightly, "The Verdict, Week 8", https://pigskinnightly.com/verdict/week/8 (2026)CC BY 4.0Data licenseCSVJSONEmbedHow it works