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Giants DeskThe Verdict

Giants beat the Eagles 19-11 on snaps that were ugly but better than Philadelphia's

Both offenses finished below zero in EPA per snap; the Giants were less bad, and the luck still leaned their way by 5.3 points.

OffenseThe VerdictEarnedDeserved 86% · Week 9
By Giants Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 10, 11:30 AM ET2 min read

The verdict

Played like that, the Giants win 86% of the time. The snaps gave them a deserved margin of 5.8 points, and the final margin was 8, so Sunday's 19-11 win in Philadelphia was earned, with a little extra on top.

Earned does not mean good. The Giants offense averaged -0.13 EPA per snap. EPA is expected points added: what a play is worth compared with what that down and distance usually produces. A negative number means the offense lost ground on the average snap. The Eagles were worse at -0.26.

What the score hid

The Giants' success rate was 30%. Philadelphia's was 24%. Neither offense kept drives alive with any regularity, and the gap between them is the whole game.

Luck points put a number on what the scoreboard flattered. The Giants finished the day at +5.3 and the Eagles at -8.3. Philadelphia left more on the field than New York did.

The swing play came in the second quarter at 13:37. On a shotgun snap, J.Milton was sacked at midfield by A.Reese for a loss of 8 yards and fumbled. M.McFadden recovered for the Giants at the 50. That one snap moved New York's win probability by 15 points, the largest of the day. Fumble recoveries are not a skill, and this one was a gift.

The calls

Head coach John Harbaugh made eight graded fourth-down decisions and seven matched the model. The one that did not was at 0:42 of the first quarter, fourth-and-1 from the Giants' own 29. The model said go. Harbaugh punted, and the call cost an estimated 1.2 expected points. In the third quarter he did go on fourth-and-1 from the Giants' 44, and the Giants converted. The model agreed with that one, and he should have shown the same nerve in the first quarter.

The heaviest flag went against New York: defensive pass interference in the first quarter at 3:16, worth 30 yards and 10 points of win probability. Philadelphia gave a flag back late. An illegal shift at 6:53 of the fourth quarter was worth 5 points of win probability to the Giants. A holding call on New York at 13:33 of the second quarter cost 10 yards, and a 15-yard roughing-the-passer call on Philadelphia in the same quarter helped the Giants.

The trend

The Giants are 5-2-1 with 5.1 deserved wins. That is 0.4 wins of luck, which ranks ninth among the 32 teams, counting the luckiest first. The record is not a mirage. They are 4-1 in one-score games, and they have no games robbed and no games won while lucky.

The underlying profile is middling. Their season net EPA per snap is 0.007, 16th in the league. An offense that sits at -0.13 on a good result is the problem to fix.

On fourth down, the Chicken Index is 44%, 17th most timid among the 32 teams. Harbaugh has gone on 5 of the 9 fourth downs where the model recommended it. Those decisions have cost 5.9 expected points over 43 graded fourth downs, with one clear miss, and that miss came Sunday.

The Giants host the Washington Commanders on Thursday, Nov 12, at 8:15 PM ET in Week 10, and the game is on Prime Video.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.